1. Top Billing (Curlin - Parade Queen, by A.P. Indy) - Trained by Shug McGaughey
As visually impressive as his recent Gulfstream allowance victory was, one must examine the chart of the race to truly appreciate how strong his effort was. After trailing the field through fairly moderate fractions of :47.23 and 1:11.01, Top Billing unleashed a spectacular four-wide rally on the far turn that carried him into the lead by the time the field entered the stretch -- and this despite the fact that the fourth quarter was run in a strong :24.99 seconds, which led to Top Billing running his personal fourth quarter in about :24.09. This was followed by a respectable :06.66-second final sixteenth that carried him to a 2 3/4-length victory over Surfing U S A, from the barn of Todd Pletcher. This performance, coupled with his stellar pedigree, has me very excited about the future of Top Billing.
2. Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile - Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Could not have been more impressive in the Holy Bull Stakes, tracking a good pace while racing three wide and powering clear in the homestretch to win by nearly six lengths. His final time of 1:42.16 missed the track record by little more than two-fifths of a second, and he seemed to have something left at the finish. Unfortunately, we won't get to see him again until the end of March, as the current plan is for Cairo Prince to bypass the Fountain of Youth and train up to the Florida Derby.
3. Strong Mandate (Tiznow - Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
He's up to five furlongs in his workouts at Oaklawn Park, the most recent being a bullet 1:00 2/5 breeze that was the fastest of sixty at that distance. The Southwest Stakes (gr. III) is expected to mark his three-year-old debut, and should tell us a lot about how he's progressed from age two to three.
4. Honor Code (A.P. Indy - Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) Trained by Shug McGaughey
He would be ranked number two right now if not for a training setback that will cause him to miss the Fountain of Youth. Although he remains very much on track for the Derby, you never want to see setbacks en route to Churchill Downs. The Gotham Stakes (gr. III) on March 1st has been mentioned as a possible new target, and if that plan comes to fruition, it will still leave Honor Code with plenty of time for a second prep race before the Derby.
5. Shared Belief (Candy Ride - Common Hope, by Storm Cat) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
Like Honor Code, the only reason Shared Belief is not ranked higher is because of a foot abscess that has caused him to miss a number of workouts, and which may cause him to miss the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) on February 8th. Other than that, this newly-crowned Eclipse champion has been flawless thus far, and if he can translate his fantastic synthetic-track form to the dirt at Santa Anita, he may be the most exciting young prospect we've seen in many years.
6. Conquest Titan (Birdstone - Miner's Secret, by Mineshaft) Trained by Mark Casse
He actually ran a top-notch race in the Holy Bull, trailing the field through the first half-mile before unleashing a strong rally on the far outside to finish second, albeit many lengths behind Cairo Prince. But the reason I have him ranked this high is not because of this performance, but because of his performance two starts back in winning a one-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs, in which Conquest Titan swept past horses on the far turn with the kind of acceleration one rarely ever sees. By my calculations, he ran his final half-mile in about :47.50 seconds, an exceptional time for any horse, much less a two-year-old!
7. Commissioner (A.P. Indy - Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It wouldn't be a Kentucky Derby Top Ten without a colt trained by Todd Pletcher, and while the master trainer once again has many talented colts in his barn, I believe that Commissioner may be far and away the best of them. Just look as his Gulfstream allowance victory from January 3rd. Making his first start since breaking his maiden at Saratoga in August, Commissioner was very professional in rating off the early pace while racing along the inside, and then withstood a hard drive through the stretch to defeat Top Billing -- who I have ranked number one -- by a neck, while running his final furlong in about :11.86 seconds. The only reason he's not ranked higher is because, well, he didn't come back on January 25th and romp in another allowance race like Top Billing did. But assuming Commissioner takes another step forward in his next start -- perhaps in the Fountain of Youth -- expect to see him move up several notches.
8. Vicar's in Trouble (Into Mischief - Vibrant, by Vicar) Trained by Michael Maker
He could not have been more visually impressive in winning the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) last time out, for the burst of speed he unleashed at the top of the stretch was breathtaking. The last horse I saw run like that in the LeComte was -- hmm, Oxbow, last year. Time will tell if Vicar's in Trouble can replicate the classic-winning season of last year's LeComte winner, for his pedigree leaves many questions to be answered regarding ten furlongs, but from a strictly visual perspective, Vicar's in Trouble looks like a really, really good one.
9. Ride On Curlin (Curlin - Magical Ride, by Storm Cat) Trained by William Gowen
Thus far, Ride On Curlin has shown flashes of brilliance sandwiched around very sub-par performances that seem to have tempered many people's enthusiasm for his chances of making the Derby. But as we saw in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I), where Ride On Curlin closed from the clouds to finish third behind Havana and Honor Code, he is capable of competing with the very best -- when at his own best. He made his three-year-old debut on January 12th at Oaklawn Park, winning a six-furlong allowance race by 2 1/2 lengths after tracking a downright ridiculous opening quarter mile of :21.80. Granted, he was slowing down a lot at the finish -- he ran his final quarter in :27.79 seconds -- but Oaklawn is a slow track in general, which is what makes the :21.80 opening quarter all the more remarkable. Given his pedigree, I'm looking forward to seeing how Ride On Curlin fares when stretched back out to a mile or longer.
10. Midnight Hawk (Midnight Lute - Miss Wineshine, by Wolf Power) Trained by Bob Baffert
Promising colt won his debut in December going 7-1/2 furlongs at Hollywood Park, then stepped up to graded stakes company in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) at one mile and triumphed by 1 3/4 lengths. It wasn't the most impressive of performances, as he did drift around a bit in the stretch, and the final quarter mile was run in a slow :25.98 seconds. But given that it was only his second start, and his first around two turns, it's very possible that we'll see an improved performance in his next start, which may come in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
