Kentucky Derby Top Ten 2-28-14

1. Top Billing (Curlin - Parade Queen, by A.P. Indy) - Trained by Shug McGaughey

Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 8-1

Overall, I really liked his third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), even if he did fall short of catching the two leaders despite a ground-saving ride. The presence of a speed bias at Gulfstream last Saturday surely hindered his chances to some extent, and even though he seemed to be flattening out a bit in the homestretch, that's not surprising given how fast he ran the middle portion of the race. While sweeping past horses on the far turn, he ran his third-quarter mile in approximately :23.28 seconds -- and that came on the heels of a second quarter in about :22.47! Thus, he ran an internal half-mile in approximately :45.75 seconds, which is absolutely flying, and he still ran his final five-sixteenths in about :30.77 seconds. A little more time, a little more distance, and fairer racetrack may be all he needs to step forward and win his next prep race.

2. Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile - Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 8-1
It was announced today that Darley has acquired a majority interest in this colt, who breezed a half-mile in :49.90 on February 22nd. He will now race in the all-blue colors of Godolphin, which will add a little extra intrigue to the Derby trail as Sheikh Mohammed continues his quest to win the Run for the Roses.

3. Honor Code (A.P. Indy - Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) Trained by Shug McGaughey
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 10-1
He has continued to train forwardly at Gulfstream Park, recording a pair of half-mile works in :49.71 and :52.06 on February 19th and 25th, respectively. He's got time for two more workouts prior to his seasonal debut in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II), so hopefully, we'll see him go a bit quicker next week.

4. Candy Boy (Candy Ride - She's an Eleven, by In Excess) Trained by John Sadler
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 20-1

On February 26th, he recorded his first workout since winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, breezing an easy half-mile in :48 1/5 at Santa Anita Park. His list of challengers for the Santa Anita Derby will become clearer following next week's San Felipe Stakes, in which many of California's other top three-year-olds will sort themselves out.

5. Strong Mandate (Tiznow - Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Came right back after the Southwest with a bullet half-mile breeze on February 25th, clocking the distance in a sharp :48 flat. With a recent race under his belt, he should be much sharper for the Rebel Stakes, but he'll have to be, with Honor Code shipping in for the race.

6. Bayern (Offlee Wild - Alittlebitearly, by Thunder Gulch) Trained by Bob Baffert
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 15-1
No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a two-year-old, so Bayern will have the dreaded "Apollo Curse" hanging over his head as he prepares for the Derby. But it's encouraging that Bob Baffert nearly broke the curse a couple years ago with Bodemeister, so if any trainer is capable of pulling it off, it's probably Baffert.

7. Conquest Titan (Birdstone - Miner's Secret, by Mineshaft) Trained by Mark Casse
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 30-1

After passing on the Fountain of Youth for a variety of reasons, the connections of Conquest Titan have decided to bring their colt back in the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) on March 8th. I must admit to being a bit surprised by that decision, but after thinking it over, it really makes a lot of sense. The Tampa Bay Derby will provide Conquest Titan with an opportunity to pick up some much-needed Kentucky Derby qualification points over a racetrack more conducive to his closing kick than Gulfstream, and he won't have to take on the likes of Cairo Prince, Top Billing, Wildcat Red, General a Rod, and others.

8. Intense Holiday (Harlan's Holiday - Intensify, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Todd Pletcher
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Demonstrated an impressive late rally in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), closing his final five-sixteenths in a respectable :30 1/5 to just nail pace-setting Albano at the wire. I'd still like to see him do that in a race with a faster early pace (they ran the opening six furlongs of the Risen Star in 1:13 flat), but there's no denying that Intense Holiday took a major step forward last Saturday, and has earned his place among the elite Derby contenders.

9. Tapiture (Tapit - Free Spin, by Olympio) Trained by Steve Asmussen
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 15-1

I'm still not certain where I should put him on this list, and I will likely remain uncertain until he runs again. Do you reward him for stepping up so impressively in his first start of the year? Should we be taking into consideration that he got an absolutely perfect trip? The coming weeks will tell us more.

10. General a Rod (Roman Ruler - Dynamite Eyes, by Dynaformer) Trained by Michael Maker
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Including him instead of Wildcat Red in this tenth position is really splitting hairs, since they have been separated by noses in both of their meetings this year, but I have given the edge to General a Rod -- even though he lost the Fountain of Youth to Wildcat Red -- because his pedigree is a more stamina-oriented than that of his rival. He's really done nothing wrong thus far, and will likely come into the Florida Derby as a bit of an underdog thanks to the reputations of Top Billing, Cairo Prince, and even Wildcat Red. Perhaps that's a good thing -- remember Take Charge Indy's upset of Union Rags and El Padrino in the 2012 Florida Derby?

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There are plenty of horses just outside the top ten that I'd really like to include, but just couldn't bring myself to do so for some reason or another. Noticeably absent from this week's Top Ten is Shared Belief, who still hasn't recorded a workout since early January. Time is running out for making the Derby, and with so many other talented colts stepping up, I reluctantly decided to drop him from my list.

Another colt I didn't want to drop was Vicar's in Trouble, who didn't have a very good trip while finishing third in the Risen Star Stakes. But he was 5 1/2 lengths back of the top two finishers at the wire, and may not be suited to the ten-furlong distance of the Kentucky Derby. Still, I think he can rebound with a better trip in the Louisiana Derby, and I'm not counting him out yet.

Commissioner's sixth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth led to his removal from my list, but I actually thought his performance was pretty good. True, he didn't present a serious challenge at any point in the race, but perhaps he wasn't comfortable racing down along the inside. Regardless, he stayed on fairly well in the homestretch, losing just 1 3/4 lengths on the leaders from the eighth pole to the wire, and finished well clear of bottom half of the field, which included We Miss Artie, C. Zee, and Almost Famous. And given that Commissioner was in mid-pack throughout, the speed-favoring nature of the Gulfstream main track didn't help matters any. Perhaps a different racetrack and better post position will help Commissioner turn things around next time out -- I personally believe the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) would be a perfect spot for him. Overall, I think the Fountain of Youth was a performance that Commissioner can build upon, and it wouldn't shock me to see him progress in much the same manner that Drosselmeyer did in 2010, and wind up a legitimate contender for the Belmont Stakes.

As I mentioned in my section on General a Rod, the decision to leave off Wildcat Red is really splitting hairs, but the colt's sprint-oriented pedigree has me worried about his potential to stretch out beyond a mile and a sixteenth, especially in the absence of a speed-favoring surface.

Constitution, Tonalist, and Mexikoma -- the top three finishers in a 8.5-furlong allowance race on the Fountain of Youth undercard -- all stamped themselves as up-and-coming Derby contenders. Mexikoma in particular caught my eye, closing ground well despite slow early fractions in his first start since finishing sixth in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). I look forward to seeing how all three of these colts progress in the near future.

-Keelerman

"All Others" still favored in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3

Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) winner Cairo Prince and Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. III) third-place finisher Top Billing have been installed as the 8-1 co-favorites of the twenty-three individuals horses offered for wagering in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3, although the "All Other Three-Year-Olds" option remains the morning line favorite at 6-1.

The pool will open for wagering on February 27th at noon EST, and will close just prior to the running of the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) on March 1st, which is scheduled to be run at 4:17 p.m. EST.

1 Albano 30-1
2 Bayern 15-1
3 Cairo Prince 8-1
4 California Chrome 30-1
5 Candy Boy 20-1
6 Conquest Titan 30-1
7 Constitution 20-1
8 General a Rod 20-1
9 Honor Code 10-1
10 Indianapolis 20-1
11 Intense Holiday 15-1
12 Kobe's Back 20-1
13 Kristo 30-1
14 Noble Moon 30-1
15 Samraat 30-1
16 Shared Belief 12-1
17 Strong Mandate 20-1
18 Tamarando 30-1
19 Tapiture 15-1
20 Top Billing 8-1
21 Uncle Sigh 50-1
22 Vicar's in Trouble 30-1
23 Wildcat Red 20-1
24 All Others Three-Year-Olds 6-1

-Keelerman

Samraat and Uncle Sigh will meet again in Gotham Stakes

Samraat and Uncle Sigh, who staged a memorable duel in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) on February 1st, will meet once again in the $500,000 Gotham Stakes (gr. III) on March 1st at Aqueduct.

The 8.5-furlong race has also drawn Harpoon, runner-up in the February 1st Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs, In Trouble, winner of the Futurity Stakes (gr. II) last year, and Extrasexyhippzster, impressive winner of the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park last month.

Entries:

1 In Trouble

2 Financial Mogul

3 Uncle Sigh

4 Noble Cornerstone

5 Monopolize

6 Deceived

7 Classic Giacnroll

8 Samraat

9 Extrasexyhippzster

10 Master Lightning

11 Harpoon

-Keelerman

Intense Holiday rallies for Risen Star triumph

5-1 shot Intense Holiday rallied powerfully down the Fair Grounds homestretch to edge pace-setting Albano by a nose in the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 22nd.

Ridden to victory by Mike Smith, Intense Holiday was content to race in mid-pack during the early stages of the 1 1/16th-mile race, about six lengths behind the early pace set by Albano. The latter got off to an excellent start and carved out fractions of :24.30, :48.14, and 1:13.00 while being tracked by Rise Up and Vigorish. Gold Hawk, Son of a Preacher, Flat Gone, and favored Vicar's in Trouble were next in line, followed by Intense Holiday, Hoppertunity, Xtra Luck, Commanding Curve, Quick Indian, Interchange, and Emmett Park.

As the field rounded the far turn, Rise Up began to tire, and Vicar's in Trouble unleashed a powerful rally on the far outside to draw within a length of the lead at the top of the homestretch. It appeared as though Vicar's in Trouble and Albano were set for exciting stretch duel, but Vicar's in Trouble could not maintain his charge, and Albano remained in command passing the eighth pole. Then Intense Holiday entered the picture, rallying widest of all and rapidly closing the gap between himself and Albano. The finish was very close, but Intense Holiday just got up in time to win by a nose, stopping the clock for 8.5 furlongs in a strong 1:43.86 seconds.

Albano ran very well in defeat, finishing 5 1/2 lengths clear of Vicar's in Trouble. Hoppertunity rallied to be fourth, while Gold Hawk, Commanding Curve, Rise Up, Flat Gone, Son of a Preacher, Quick Indian, Vigorish, Emmett Park, Interchange, and Xtra Luck completed the order of finish.

Intense Holiday is a son of Harlan's Holiday out of the Unbridled's Song mare Intensify. Trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Starlight Racing, Intense Holiday earned 50 Kentucky Derby qualification points for his win in the Risen Star, bringing his point total to 53. His next start is expected to come in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) at Fair Grounds on March 29th.

-Keelerman

Wildcat Red narrowly best in Fountain of Youth Stakes

Wildcat Red engaged in a battle with General a Rod from the very beginning of the Saturday's $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, and just succeeded in edging his rival by a head at the end of the 8.5-furlong Kentucky Derby prep race.

Coming off of a dominant victory in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. III), also at Gulfstream, Wildcat Red was sent off at odds of 9-2 in a field of twelve. With jockey Luis Saez aboard, Wildcat Red got off to a very alert start and quickly assumed command of the lead, but General a Rod flashed speed as well, and the two were separated by just a head following an opening quarter mile in :23.03 seconds. There was a gap of 3 1/2 lengths back to C. Zee in the third position, who was followed closely by Medal Count, Our Caravan, and Commissioner, who was saving ground along the inside. Best Plan Yet, We Miss Artie, Hesinfront, Almost Famous, East Hall, and favored Top Billing were the trailers.

Wildcat Red and General a Rod continued their duel through fractions of :46.25 and 1:10.13, all the while remaining just a head apart and 3 1/2 lengths clear of their closest pursuers. However, moving down the backstretch and around the far turn, Top Billing began to rally with powerful strides, closing ground along the rail and then splitting horses on the turn to reach contention at the head of the stretch. It appeared as though Top Billing had the two pacesetters measured, but Wildcat Red and General a Rod proved game on the front end, retaining their advantage through a mile in 1:35.24 and holding off Top Billing's run by two lengths at the finish, with Wildcat Red reaching the wire a head in front of General a Rod in the excellent time of 1:41.85 seconds.

Top Billing was clearly third best, finishing 4 1/2 lengths in front of East Hall, a 72.90-1 shot that rallied from way back to complete the superfecta. Medal Count, Commissioner, Our Caravan, We Miss Artie (who made a strong middle move to reach third place before tiring in the stretch), Best Plan Yet, C. Zee, Almost Famous, and Hesinfront rounded out the order of finish.

Wildcat Red is a son of D'wildcat out of Racene, by Miner's Mark. Trained by Jose Garaffalo and owned by Honors Stable Corp., Wildcat Red's victory in the Fountain of Youth earned him 50 Kentucky Derby qualification points, which all but guarantees him a spot in the Derby field. His next start is expected to come in the $1,000,000 Florida Derby (gr. I) on March 29th.

-Keelerman

Kentucky Derby Top Ten 2-18-14

1. Top Billing (Curlin - Parade Queen, by A.P. Indy) - Trained by Shug McGaughey
He has drawn gate twelve in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), which is far from ideal, given the short run to the first turn. Since his running style is to come from behind, it won't hurt him as much as it would if he were a front-runner or pace stalker, but there's still a very real chance that he could get hung very wide entering the first turn. He wrapped up his serious training for the race with a half-mile breeze in :50 flat on February 17th. Now we found out just what kind of horse he is.

2. Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile - Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Recorded his first breeze since the Holy Bull on February 15th, clocking a half-mile in :48.75 seconds at Gulfstream Park. It was a solid first work back, nothing special, but with nearly six weeks remaining until the Florida Derby (gr. I), he's got plenty of time to crank things up.

3. Honor Code (A.P. Indy - Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) Trained by Shug McGaughey
Returned to the work tab on February 12th with a three-furlong breeze in :35.66 at Gulfstream Park, which was a very solid first work for the Remsen winner. Assuming all goes well, the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn on March 15th is the target.

4. Candy Boy (Candy Ride - She's an Eleven, by In Excess) Trained by John Sadler
John Sadler has three top-notch three-year-olds in his barn right now -- Sham Stakes (gr. III) runner-up Kristo and San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) winner Kobe's Back being the others -- and now has the somewhat challenging task of keeping them separated during the leadup to the Derby. With Kristo penciled in for the San Felipe, and Kobe's Back aiming for the Rebel Stakes, Candy Boy is targeting a start in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) on April 5th, thus following the same path to the Derby as I'll Have Another did two years ago.

5. Strong Mandate (Tiznow - Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Prior to the running of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), I voiced an opinion that if Strong Mandate did not win the race in dominant fashion, I was going to be somewhat disappointed. Well, it turns out that Strong Mandate didn't even win the Southwest, but I'm not disappointed. He was hung very wide on the first turn, and may have even clipped heels a bit early in the turn, which left him in last place for a few moments before he re-rallied into contention. Heading down the backstretch, he made a strong move on the far outside (four or five horses wide) to draw within a length of the lead, but was unable to get any closer to the rail on the far turn, and spent the remainder of the race parked on the far outside. Given the amount of ground he lost, it wasn't surprising to see him run out of steam in the homestretch and start drifting around. Give him credit for losing by just 4 1/4 lengths to a horse that rode the rail all the way around, and for finishing six lengths clear of the rest of the field. And this in his first start since early November, and after missing some training due to inclement weather at Oaklawn!

6. Bayern (Offlee Wild - Alittlebitearly, by Thunder Gulch) Trained by Bob Baffert
I had been waiting for a truly eye-catching three-year-old to emerge from the barn of trainer Bob Baffert, and I think Bayern is that colt. I just loved his fifteen-length allowance victory on Thursday, in which he rattled off :24-second quarters through the final half-mile to win under a hand ride. Granted, there wasn't a lot finishing behind him, but I have the feeling that Bayern is on the verge of becoming California's leading three-year-old.

7. Conquest Titan (Birdstone - Miner's Secret, by Mineshaft) Trained by Mark Casse
Mark Casse has decided to pass on the Fountain of Youth with his star runner, citing a variety of reasons in a recent article on Bloodhorse.com. It's probably the best plan in the long run, but it does put Conquest Titan in a bit of a tough spot for the Florida Derby, because if he runs poorly and fails to finish in the top three, he may not have enough points to start in the Kentucky Derby.

8. Commissioner (A.P. Indy - Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Unlike Top Billing, Commissioner actually drew very well in the Fountain of Youth, landing the rail position in a field of thirteen. Granted, it's not 100% ideal, since Commissioner could possibly run into trouble as the rest of the field dives inward on the first turn -- remember Buddy's Saint in 2010? -- but it's definitely better than drawing gate twelve, and we know Commissioner won't lose any ground in the early stages of the race.

9. Shared Belief (Candy Ride - Common Hope, by Storm Cat) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
He still isn't back on the work tab, and time is really running out for making the San Felipe Stakes, so as a result, I've decided to drop him a bit in my rankings. Expect to see him move back up as soon as he gets back on a regular work schedule.

10. Tapiture (Tapit - Free Spin, by Olympio) Trained by Steve Asmussen
I really don't know how to feel about his victory in the Southwest. From many perspectives, it was excellent -- he was very relaxed while racing inside of horses, kicked clear when asked at the top of the stretch, and won decisively in a respectable time that earned a strong Beyer speed figure. But at the same time, he got an absolute dream trip -- tracking a slow pace while saving ground -- while Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin, who finished second and third, got hung very wide throughout the race and were forced to make strong moves at inopportune times. But you can't knock the fact that Tapiture has now won two graded stakes races in a row, and seems to be getting better with every race.

10. Vicar's in Trouble (Into Mischief - Vibrant, by Vicar) Trained by Michael Maker
I couldn't see not including Tapiture on this list, but I also couldn't see dropping Vicar's in Trouble, so I decided to make them both #10 and consider it a tie. He's drawn very poorly in gate fourteen for the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), which could compromise his chances, but perhaps his speed will enable him to clear enough horses to avoid getting hung too wide on the first turn. Remember, victory isn't imperative; Palace Malice and Oxbow finished third and fourth in last year's Risen Star, and both came back to win Triple Crown races.

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I really didn't want to drop Ride On Curlin from this week's list, as he encountered a trip just as bad as Strong Mandate and still ran well enough to be third. But I'm beginning to suspect that he may be best at shorter distances, and for that reason, I've reluctantly decided to include others instead.

One horse I really wanted to include was Kobe's Back, who was so visually impressive in winning the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) by 5 1/4 lengths. But he's still unproven around two turns, and he -- like Ride On Curlin -- may be best as a sprinter.

I could also have included Tamarando, winner of the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), but he seems to be a completely different horse on synthetic as opposed to dirt. If the Kentucky Derby were being run on Polytrack, I'd be tempted to put him at the top of the list. But until Tamarando fires a top-notch performance on dirt, it will be hard to include him in my top ten.

With the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) and Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) coming up this Saturday, expect a major shake-up in next week's rankings. Among the horses poised to join my list with sharp performances are Rise Up, Hoppertunity, Intense Holiday, Wildcat Red, We Miss Artie, and Almost Famous. And of course, the match-up between Top Billing and Commissioner could prove fascinating, as a victory by the latter of the former could cause me to serious re-think the overall shape of my rankings!

-Keelerman

Tapiture rides the rail to victory in the Southwest Stakes

Tapiture, breaking from the rail, saved ground from the start of the $400,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) and drew away strongly in the homestretch to win the 1 1/16th-mile Kentucky Derby prep race in decisive fashion over Strong Mandate.

Ridden to victory by Ricardo Santana Jr., Tapiture got off to a clean start and quickly races into second place as Tanzanite Cat sprinted away to grab the early advantage through a quarter in :23.45 seconds. Coastline, Louies Flower, Kendall's Boy, and Ride On Curlin also flashed speed from the start, and with a very short run to the first turn, several horses were caught extremely wide entering the turn -- Ride On Curlin was hung about seven wide, with even-money favorite Strong Mandate in a similar position. Paganol, Walt, Bourbonize, Son of Dixie, and Fire Starter were the early trailers.

In order to avoid getting hung wide around the entire first turn, Ride On Curlin's jockey Calvin Borel asked his mount for more speed, and the colt quickly cleared several horses to his inside and challenged Tanzanite Cat and Tapiture for the lead. By the time the field had run a half-mile in :47.92 seconds, Ride On Curlin actually had his head in front of Tanzanite Cat and Tapiture, who continued to keep pace along the inside. Strong Mandate had also made a move to reach contention, and was racing in the fourth spot on the far outside.

The positions remained relatively unchanged through the next quarter mile, which was reached in the time of 1:13.06. At that point, Tapiture began to open up a bit of an advantage over Tanzanite Cat, who was tiring, and also Ride On Curlin. Strong Mandate made an effort to move with the leader on the far outside, but was caught wide throughout the final turn, and had little left by the time the field entered the homestretch. At that point, Tapiture kicked clear decisively from his pursuers, extending his lead to three lengths past the eighth pole and to 4 1/4 lengths at the finish, despite drifting through the homestretch. The final time for 1 1/16th miles was 1:44.95 seconds

Strong Mandate finished clearly second best, although he too drifted a great deal in the homestretch. Ride On Curlin held on to be third, six lengths behind Strong Mandate and a half-length clear of Coastline. Tanzanite Cat, Bourbonize, Walt, Fire Starter, Son of Dixie, Paganol, Kendall's Boy, and Louies Flower completed the order of finish.

Tapiture is a son of Tapit out of Free Spin, by Olympio. Owned and bred by Winchell Thoroughbreds, he is trained by Steve Asmussen and has compiled a record of two wins, a second, a two thirds from five starts, with earnings of $320,838. For his victory in the Southwest, Tapiture earned 10 Kentucky Derby qualification points, bringing his total to 22.

-Keelerman

Mexikoma returns in Gulfstream allowance race

Mexikoma, unraced since a sixth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) last November, returns to the races on February 22nd in a 1 1/16th-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park.

Trained by Rick Mettee, the Florida-bred son of Birdstone will start from the outside post position in a field of ten, and will be ridden by Joel Rosario. His primary opposition is expected to come from impressive maiden winners Constitution, Matterhorn, and Tonalist, as well as Remsen Stakes (gr. II) third-place finish Wicked Strong.

Entries:
1 Sea of Faces/Paco Lopez/
2 Rhythm Blues/Corey Lanerie/
3 Matterhorn/Luis Saez/
4 Solemnly Swear/Dylan Davis/
5 We're All Set/Edgar Prado
6 Constitution/Javier Castellano
7 Big Guy Ian/Joe Rocco, Jr.
8 Tonalist/Joe Bravo
9 Wicked Strong/Jose Lezcano
10 Mexikoma/Joel Rosario

-Keelerman

Bond Holder, Vicar's in Trouble headline deep Risen Star Stakes

FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) winner Bond Holder and LeComte Stakes (gr. III) winner Vicar's in Trouble are among the sixteen horses that have been entered in the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), to be run on February 22nd at Fair Grounds.

Other prominent runners entered in the 1 1/16th-mile race include Rise Up, winner of the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III); Hoppertunity, an impressive maiden winner from the barn of Bob Baffert; Intense Holiday, third in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) last month; and Albano, runner-up in the LeComte Stakes.

The Risen Star Stakes will be limited to fourteen starters; thus, Emmett Park and Teniente Coronel have been named as also-eligibles, and will run only if their are scratches from the main body of the field.

Entries:
1 Albano
2 Rise Up
3 Flat Gone
4 Vigorish
5 Bond Holder
6 Gold Hawk
7 Interchange
8 Hoppertunity
9 Intense Holiday
10 Son of a Preacher
11 Quick Indian
12 Xtra Luck
13 Commanding Curve
14 Vicar's in Trouble
Also-Eligibles:
15 Emmett Park
16 Teniente Coronel

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-17-14

While every Kentucky Derby prep race has the potential to impact and influence the eventual outcome of the big race, there's no doubt that some prep races feel more important, and more meaningful, than others. Which races take on this feeling of importance varies from year to year, but for me, the 2014 edition of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) has entered the category of importance. The reason is that the caliber of this year's field is extraordinary -- perhaps the best in years.

So far this weekend, we have already seen a pair of graded stakes races for three-year-olds -- the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate Fields and the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita. Both were won in impressive fashion by talented horses with the potential to make a big impact on the Kentucky Derby trail. But for me, the Southwest Stakes has the potential to tower over them both in terms of eventual influence and impact, so without any delay, let's take a closer look!

Southwest Stakes (gr. III)

There are two horses in this race that I'm particularly interested in seeing, as both are currently included in my Kentucky Derby Top Ten rankings. They are Strong Mandate, winner of the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) last year, and Ride On Curlin, third in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) and most recently winner of a six-furlong allowance race here at Oaklawn.

Both Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin have flashed speed in recent starts. The former helped set a blazing pace in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and held on to be third in a very gritty performance. Ride On Curlin tracked a :21 4/5-second opening quarter in his allowance victory before drawing off to score by 2 1/2 lengths. But while both colts have run well on the lead, it's not as though they need to be on the lead in order to win. Strong Mandate tracked the pace in the Hopeful Stakes before winning by nearly ten lengths in his most impressive performance, and Ride On Curlin closed from out of the clouds in the Champagne Stakes. So, given their versatility, they should be able to adapt to whatever pace scenario presents itself -- which is a good thing, because it looks as though the pace of the Southwest Stakes could be fast.

Just consider the number of horses in the Southwest that have showcased a desire to race near the lead. On the rail, there is Tapiture, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) in November after racing close to the front. He has shown excellent speed throughout his career, and will most likely be sent for the lead while breaking from the rail, in order to avoid getting trapped in a pocket. Then's there's Street Sense Stakes winner Coastline, who has never actually led during the early stages of a race, but whose best races have come when right behind the early leaders. Tanzanite Cat won the Smarty Jones Stakes here at Oaklawn racing first or second throughout, and broke his maiden in gate-to-wire fashion. Louies Flower showed excellent speed in his first four races, including a wire-to-wire allowance victory, before tracking the pace in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes en route to victory. Kendall's Boy comes into the Southwest off of a gate-to-wire victory in a six-furlong allowance race. Walt led at the half-mile and three-quarter mile calls of the Smarty Jones Stakes and was never worse than second at any call. He also broke his maiden by almost ten lengths while leading from the start. Son of Dixie, most recently third in a one-mile allowance race here at Oaklawn, led at that first two calls of that race.

So of the twelve horses in the Southwest Stakes, nine of them have shown a tendency to race near the front. With that in mind, it might be wise to look to the three closers -- Paganol, Fire Starter, and Bourbonize -- to try and find a colt that can take advantage of what could be a blazing early pace.

Of the three, Bourbonize looks the most intriguing on paper. He is unbeaten in two starts thus far, having won his debut by two lengths sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill and coming back to win a one-mile allowance here at Oaklawn by four lengths. In the latter performance, he was 6 1/4 lengths back early on before rallying impressively on the far outside. He will have to overcome starting from the far outside post position, but at 15-1 on the morning line, he's definitely worth a look.

Fire Starter, 20-1 on the morning line, could also be a contender. After losing his first three starts, he broke through with a 10 3/4-length victory in a one-mile maiden special weight at Laurel, then finished fith in the Smarty Jones Stakes after failing to relax early on. With jockey Robby Albarado back to ride this colt for a second straight time, I'm hopeful that Fire Starter will settle a bit more early on and come running strongly late. The question is, can he out-kick Bourbonize?

The final closer to mention is Paganol, who chased fast fractions in his debut on January 11th and just got up late to win the six-furlong maiden special weight by a nose over Street Strategy, who returned to break his maiden in strong fashion on January 30th. While Paganol does appear talented, he will be facing several major hurdles today, as this will be only his second start, his first start around two turns, and his first beyond six furlongs -- not to mention the fact that his pedigree seems slanted toward speed. For bettors, though, it may be a moot point, because Paganol will run as a coupled entry with the well-regarded Tanzanite Cat, and if you like the latter, you'll get Paganol as a bonus.

So for my top four selections, I'm going to take Strong Mandate on top, despite the possibility of pace issues, because I feel he's talented enough to overcome them, as he nearly did in the Breeders' Cup. For second, I'll take Ride On Curlin, and hope that he picks today to revert to his off-the-pace running style from the Champagne. For third and fourth, Fire Starter and Bourbonize should be coming hard at the finish, and I think that they can both hit the board at attractive prices.

-Keelerman

Top Billing draws gate twelve in the Fountain of Youth Stakes

Promising allowance winners Top Billing has drawn gate twelve in the $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), where he will once again face Commissioner -- who defeated Top Billing earlier this year --as well as Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) winner We Miss Artie, Hutcheson Stakes (gr. III) winner Wildcat Red, and Gulfstream Park Derby winner General a Rod.

The 1 1/16th-mile raced has been won the last two years by Orb (eventual winner of the Kentucky Derby) and Union Rags (eventual winner of the Belmont Stakes), proving that the Fountain of Youth is a key road to success in the Triple Crown. The race is to be run on February 22nd at Gulfstream Park.

Top Billing, considered by many to be a leading contender for the Kentucky Derby, enters the Fountain of Youth off of an eye-catching victory in an allowance race here at Gulfstream, in which he unleashed a last-to-first rally around the far turn to win in decisive fashion. Trained by Shug McGaughey, Top Billing will be looking to give his trainer a second consecutive victory in the Fountain of Youth.

Entries:
PP/Horse
1 Commissioner
2 We Miss Artie
3 Medal Count
4 Wildcat Red
5 General a Rod
6 Casiguapo
7 C. Zee
8 Almost Famous
9 Best Plan Yet
10 Our Caravan
11 Hesinfront
12 Top Billing
13 East Hall

-Keelerman

Top Billing completes major training for Fountain of Youth

Top Billing, who is expected to be among the favorites in the $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park this Saturday, breezed a half-mile in :50 seconds at Gulfstream this morning to complete his major training for the race.

Trained by Shug McGaughey, the son of Curlin out of Parade Queen (by A.P. Indy) won a 1 1/16th miles allowance race at Gulfstream on January 25th in eye-catching finish, rallying from last around the far turn to win drawing away by nearly three lengths. Since then, Top Billing has recorded a pair of half-mile workouts, including today's breeze, which was the tenth-fastest of twenty-six morning workouts at that distance.

Top Billing races for William S. Farish and E. J. Hudson, Jr. Overall, he has compiled a record of two wins and a second from three starts, with earnings of $56,835.

-Keelerman

Kobe's Back impresses in San Vicente Stakes

Stakes winner Kobe's Back, making his first start since a troubled tenth-place finish in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) in December, unleashed an eye-catching stretch run to win the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita by 5 1/4 lengths.

Ridden to victory by Joel Rosario, Kobe's Back got off to a clean start from post position six, but quickly dropped back to trail the field early on as Cherubim, Papa Turf, and Grazen's Hope dueled for the lead through fractions of :22.73 and :45 flat. There was a gap of several lengths back to Roger Rocket and Rprettyboyfloyd, racing right together in fourth and fifth while just clear of Kobe's Back.

Rounding the turn, Kobe's Back began to advance on the far outside, and swept into contention as the field turned for home. Cherubim had shaken clear of his pursuers and appeared to be running very well, but Kobe's Back was much to good, rolling past Cherubim with ease and drawing off under a hand ride to win in dominant fashion. The final time for seven furlongs was a strong 1:21.84 seconds.

Cherubim held second by a length over Rprettyboyfloyd, while Papa Turf, Roger Rocket, and Grazen's Hope completed the order of finish.

Kobe's Back is trained by John Sadler and owned by C R K Stable. A son of Flatter out of Well, by Well Decorated, Kobe's Back has compiled a record of two wins and a second from four starts, with earnings of $200,250.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-16-14

In recent years, the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita has proven a respectable testing ground for promising Triple Crown prospects. In 2012, grade I winner Creative Cause finished third, and went on to win the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) and place in both the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and Preakness Stakes (gr. I). In 2011, The Factor won the San Vicente, went on to claim the Rebel Stakes (gr. II), and later became a top-notch sprinter. And in 2010, Sidney's Candy won the race en route to victories in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. I).

San Vicente Stakes (gr. II)

The morning line favorite is Kobe's Back, who was so impressive while winning the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes in his debut last June. After breaking in the air and spotting the field many, many lengths, Kobe's Back came roaring down the homestretch to win by 3 1/4 lengths, a performance that made him the odds-on favorite five months later in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III). Stretching out to seven furlongs off a layoff, Kobe's Back ran very well after getting off to yet another slow start, but was unable to challenge runaway winner Shared Belief, who won by nearly eight lengths en route to being honored as the champion two-year-old male of 2013. Meanwhile, Kobe's Back had the rest of the field measured, finishing second by nearly five lengths from Brother Soldier.

Kobe's Back made his final start of the year in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), where he would try two turns for the first time. He seemed to be traveling well enough through the early stages of the race, but clipped heels with a half-mile remaining and never contended thereafter, finishing a distant tenth. He has not raced since then, but he has trained very well for his return, and should appreciate the seven-furlong distance of today's race. Perhaps the biggest question is whether he can handle the Santa Anita dirt as well as he did the Cushion Track at Betfair Hollywood Park, over which all three of his starts have come.

The most intriguing candidate for an upset is Cherubim, who finished eighth in his debut at Hollywood last November before returning to win a six-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita by 3 1/4 lengths -- despite running the opening half-mile in :44.06! Cherubim's performance was made all the more impressive by the subsequent success of runner-up Chelios and third-place finisher Pimpernel, both of which have come back to break their maidens in impressive fashion. Given the blazing speed that Cherubim has demonstrated, and the quality of competition he has faced, I believe he has an edge over late-running Kobe's Back, who will have to uncork quite a rally to reel in Cherubim.

Papa Turf also warrants respect, based off of his runner-up effort in the San Pedro Stakes to Indianapolis, who would have been favored here had he not come down with a cough and been forced to miss the race. Papa Turf has kept good company throughout his career, tackling such stakes-placed colts as Chitu and Kristo, but when he took on Kobe's Back in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes, he could only finish fourth after setting the pace. He has enough speed to be a pace factor from the outset, but it's more likely that he'll take back just a bit and try to avoid a speed duel with Cherubim.

Bob Baffert, who has won the last three runnings of this race and eight renewals overall, will be represented here by Roger Rocket, who overcame a slow start to break his maiden by a head sprinting 5-1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita last month. That was definitely a performance that this son of Pulpit can improve upon, but it's worth noting that the blazing early pace (:21.19 opening quarter) surely aided his rally, and that Roger Rocket's last three workouts haven't been as quick as the ones he turned in prior to his debut.

Rprettyboyfloyd is still a maiden after two starts, but he did finish second in both while showcasing impressive late rallies. In his debut, he was eleven lengths back early on before closing to just 3 1/4 lengths back at the finish, and the winner was Bayern, who returned to so impressively dominate an allowance race on Thursday. In his second start, Rprettyboyfloyd took on the above-mentioned Chelios and just missed by a half-length at the finish, despite trailing by 3 1/2 lengths at the eighth pole. Despite his poor record on paper, Reprettyboyfloyd seems capable enough to contend for at least a top-three finish here, and that belief is reflected by his relatively low morning line price of 4-1.

Rounding out the field is Grazen's Hope, who is unbeaten in two starts at Golden Gate Fields. Sprinting six furlongs in his debut, Grazen's Hope flashed impressive speed en route to a two-length victory, and while he wasn't quite as impressive in his second start -- a one-mile allowance race -- he nevertheless drew off late to win by 1 3/4 lengths, and he should enjoy the cutback in distance for today's race. Unfortunately, he has drawn the rail, and will likely have to use his speed hard from the start in order to secure good position.

Selections: Cherubim, Kobe's Back, Papa Turf, Rprettyboyfloyd

Other Races of Note

There is another stakes race for three-year-olds being on today at Santa Anita, that being the 6 1/2-furlong Baffle Me Stakes on the downhill turf course. The morning line favorite is Michael Machowsky's Gangnam Guy, who finished a strong second in an allowance race on the dowhill turf course last month. But perhaps the most intriguing entrant is Life Is a Joy, who has run very well in California-bred stakes races while competing against the likes of Tamarando and California Chrome. This will be his turf debut, and I'm curious to see how he does. Royal Banker, twice placed in turf stakes races, and the unbeaten Red Outlaw are other logical contenders.

At Oaklawn Park, seven three-year-olds will take on a trio of four-year-olds in a 1 1/16th-mile maiden special weight. The Mark Casse-trained duo of Dynamic Impact and Majestic Sunset (the latter being stakes-placed in Canada) will race as a coupled entry, and are the morning line favorites at 5-2. I will be particularly interested in seeing how Dynamic Impact performs, since he finished a distant second to the promising Street Strategy in a race similar to this earlier in the Oaklawn meet. Should Dynamic Impact prove victorious, it would confirm Street Strategy as a colt to watch during the coming months.

-Keelerman

Tamarando edges Dance With Fate in El Camino Real Derby

Tamarando, with legendary jockey Russell Baze aboard, unleashed a powerful rally in the furlongs of the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate Fields to defeat Dance With Fate by a half-length.

Winner of the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) and Real Quiet Stakes as a two-year-old, Tamarando entered the El Camino Real Derby off of a runner-up finish in the California Cup Derby at Santa Anita on dirt. Switching back to a synthetic track, over which his greatest success has come, Tamarando was content to trail the field early on, albeit just five lengths behind as longshot I'll Wrap It Up led the way through fractions of :24.40, :49.73, and 1:13.98. Enterprising and Dance With Fate were his closest pursuers, followed by Craftsman, Infosec, Icy Ride, and Tamarando.

As the field made their way toward the homestretch, Tamarando began to advance on the far outside, but still had plenty left to do at the top of the stretch as Enterprising and Dance With Fate moved up to take command of the lead. Passing the eighth pole, the two leaders were separated by just a head, with Tamarando another length behind. But in the final furlong, Tamarando found enough in reserve to get up and edge Dance With Fate for the victory, hitting the wire in 1:51.23 seconds for nine furlongs. In demonstration of how well the top two finishers ran, the final furlong was clocked in a remarkable :11.36 seconds.

Enterprising held on to be third, 2 1/4 lengths behind Dance With Fate and one length clear of Puppy Manners. Infosec, Icy Ride, Craftsman, and I'll Wrap It Up completed the order of finish.

Tamarando is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and is owned by Mr. and Mrs. Larry D. Williams, who also bred the dark bay son of Bertrando - Tamarack Bay (by Dehere). For his victory, Tamarando earned $120,000, plus 10 Kentucky Derby qualification points. He has now compiled an overall record of four wins, two seconds, and three thirds from 10 starts, with earnings of $625,120. His next start is expected to come in the $550,000 Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway Park on March 22nd.

-Keelerman

Cairo Princes breezes four furlongs

Cairo Prince recorded his first workout since a dominant victory in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) when he breezed a half-mile on February 15th at Gulfstream Park.

The son of Pioneerof the Nile clocked the distance in :48.75 seconds, the sixteenth-fastest of eight-three morning works at that distance. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, Cairo Prince is targeting a start in the $1,000,000 Florida Derby (gr. I) on March 29th at Gulfstream Park.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-14-14

The upcoming three-day weekend promises to be an exciting one along the Triple Crown trail, with one graded stakes race for three-year-olds scheduled for each of the three days. Up first on the agenda is the nine-furlong El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields, in which eight colts will attempt to earn their share of the 17 Kentucky Derby qualification points that are up for grabs. Let's take a look at who's running!

El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)

In a race that seems lacking in early speed, Enterprising seems the most likely to take advantage of the situation. Trained by Tom Proctor, the son of Elusive Quality won the one-mile Eddie Logan Stakes on the Santa Anita turf two starts back, then went down by just a half-length in the California Derby here at Golden Gate Fields, demonstrating an affinity for this track. Ridden that day by Aaron Gryder, Enterprising will be ridden here by Gary Stevens, who was aboard for the colt's first three starts. From post position five, I expect Enterprising to work out a great trip, and I think he'll be tough to catch in the homestretch.

The most logical candidate to defeat Enterprising would appear to be Tamarando, who won the grade I Del Mar Futurity as a two-year-old last September, and has since placed third in both the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) and CashCall Futurity (gr. I). Most recently runner-up in the California Cup Derby at Santa Anita, Tamarando seems to be considerably better on synthetic than on dirt, and should appreciate the switch to Tapeta for today's race. However, as a deep closer, he is reliant on a fast early pace to set up his late run, and the expected pace scenario of the El Camimo Real Derby may compromise his chances. But it's hard to ignore the potent jockey/trainer combination of Russell Baze and Jerry Hollendorfer, who have won this race together on four occasions.

It's also important not to overlook Dance With Fate, who will start from the far outside post position. The Peter Eurton-trainee placed second in both the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) and the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year, defeating Tamarando in the latter. He ended his juvenile season with an eighth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but returned on January 24th to win a one-mile turf allowance race at Santa Anita in impressive fashion. He possesses a very strong stretch kick, and has shown enough early speed in the past to be near the early lead if necessary, so expect Dance With Fate to adapt to whatever pace scenario presents itself, and put in a good run from there.

One very intriguing entrant is Craftsman, an Irish-bred colt that began his career in his native country, where he won the group III JRA Killavullan Stakes by a length on October 26th. Subsequently sold and shipped to the United States, he made his American debut in the Eddie Logan Stakes, where he finished fifth behind Enterprising. A series of strong workouts since then suggest that Craftsman is ready to fire a big one in his second U.S. start, but will have to overcome starting from the rail in order to do so.

Infosec and Puppy Manners, the third- and fourth-place finishers from the California Derby, return for a rematch with Enterprising, and both have the credentials to hit the board at a nice price. Puppy Manners is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and turned in an excellent late run in the California Derby, while Infosec has recorded some solid workouts in preparation for this race, and should have enough early speed to work out a decent trip.

Rounding out the field are I'll Wrap It Up, most recently fourth behind Dance With Fate in that one's allowance victory, and Icy Ride, a Bob Baffert-trainee that has yet to finish better than fourth from four starts. The latter colt appears overmatched on paper, but has been facing some pretty good horses in all of his starts, including Hoppertunity, Cool Samurai, and Indianapolis, so perhaps he could surprise most everyone with a respectable finish on Saturday.

Selections: Enterprising, Tamarando, Dance With Fate, Icy Ride

Other Races of Note

Rather than delve into all three of the upcoming graded stakes races in a single edition of "Triple Crown Countdown," we will be analyzing Sunday's San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) tomorrow and Monday's Southwest Stakes (gr. III) the day after that. But there are a few other Saturday races that merit a mention, including a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita that has drawn three colts from the barn of Bob Baffert.
The race, which is carded as the sixth of the day, includes not only the Baffert trio of Superlooper, The Admiral, and first-time starter Vegas Strip, but also Footstepsinbronze, the morning line favorite off of a solid runner-up effort in his debut for trainer Simon Callaghan. This is definitely a race you'll want to see!

There is also a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream tomorrow, in which Athens is the morning line favorite for trainer Bill Mott. The colt has made one start thus far, finishing sixth to the well-regarded Constitution in another seven-furlong maiden race on January 11th. Others to keep an eye on include Highrate, unraced since a fifth-place finish to Conquest Two Step and Ride On Curlin in a Churchill maiden race last June; Mettlesome, a first-time starter for Bill Mott that has recorded some nice workouts; and Victory Not Defeat, a first-time starter for Ralph Nicks that will be ridden by John Velazquez.

-Keelerman

Strong Mandate draws post 8 in Southwest Stakes

Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner Strong Mandate will start from post position eight when he makes his seasonal debut in the $300,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on Monday at Oaklawn Park.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Strong Mandate has not run since finishing a strong third in the November 2nd Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) at Santa Anita, but has been training very well for his return, having recorded two consecutive bullet workouts during the last couple of weeks.

Other notable colts entered in this 8.5-furlong race include Tapiture, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last November; Ride On Curlin, third in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) behind Havana and Honor Code last year; Smarty Jones Stakes 1-2 finishers Tanzanite Cat and Walt; Remington Springboard Mile Stakes winner Louies Flower; and the unbeaten allowance winner Bourbonize.

Entries:
PP/Horse/Jockey/Trainer
1 Tapiture/Ricardo Santana, Jr./Steve Asmussen
2 Coastline/Shaun Bridgmohan/Mark Casse
3 Tanzanite Cat/Corey Nakatani/Cody Autrey (coupled entry)
4 Louies Flower/Luis Quinonez/Bret Calhoun
5 Kendall's Boy/Leandro Goncalves/Tom Amoss
6 Paganol/Norberto Arroyo, Jr./Cody Autrey (coupled entry)
7 Walt/Ken Tohill/Chris Hartman
8 Strong Mandate/Joel Rosario/D. Wayne Lukas
9 Ride On Curlin/Calvin Borel/William Gowan
10 Son of Dixie/M. Clifton Berry/Bret Calhoun
11 Fire Starter/Robby Albarado/Steve Hobby
12 Bourbonize/Ramon Vazquez/Kellyn Gorder

-Keelerman

Wildcat Red breezes half-mile at Gulfstream

Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) winner Wildcat Red breezed a half-mile on February 14th at Gulfstream Park, likely his final workout prior to an expected start in the $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) on February 22nd.

The son of D'wildcat out of Racene (by Miner's Mark) clocked the distance in :49.02 seconds, the twelfth-fastest of twenty-four morning workouts at that distance.

Trained by Jose Garoffalo and owned by Honors Stable Corp., Wildcat Red won the seven-furlong Hutcheson by 4 3/4 lengths in the quick time of 1:22.21. He had previously finished second by a head in the one-mile Gulfstream Park Derby.

-Keelerman

Bayern dominates Santa Anita allowance race by 15 lengths

The promising three-year-old colt Bayern brought his record to a perfect 2-for-2 on February 13th when he unleashed spectacular acceleration in the final furlongs of a one-mile allowance race at Santa Anita, drawing clear to win by fifteen lengths under a hand ride.

The son of Offlee Wild out of Alittlebitearly (by Thunder Gulch) was sent straight to the lead early on by Gary Stevens, and ran the opening quarter-mile in :24.03 while being pursued by Brother Soldier and Tap It Rich, who both started slowly before pulling their riders up into contention. Flagman and Baranof were the trailers.

With Brother Soldier and Tap It Rich continuing to apply pressure, Bayern picked up the pace inside the second quarter mile, running the distance in :23.74 to reach the half-mile in :47.77. Then came one of the most impressive final half-miles run by a three-year-old in recent memory.

Under no urging Stevens, Bayern began to open up an advantage on his rivals -- slowly at first, then faster. As the field raced past the quarter pole, Bayern was five lengths in front, and had run his third quarter in an exceptional :24 seconds flat. And he didn't stop there. With Stevens now hand-urging just a bit, and waving the whip without actually using it, Bayern continued to extend his lead, and was eleven lengths clear with a furlong to go, having run the seventh furlong of the race in an eye-catching :11.82 seconds. From there, the question was simply how big a margin of victory Bayern would record, and after the colt sped through his final furlong in :12.18 -- to stop the timer in 1:35.77 -- the answer was fifteen lengths.

Tap It Rich was second best at the finish by 5 3/4 lengths over Brother Soldier, while Flagman and Baranof completed the order of finish.

Owned by Kaleem Shah and trained by Bob Baffert, Bayern has without question stamped himself as a contender for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), and looks bound for a graded stakes in the near future. In many respects, his victory was reminiscent of Bodemeister's maiden victory two years ago. Time will tell of Bayern can emulate or exceed the accomplishments of Bodemeister, who went on to win the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) and place second in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes (gr. I), but after watching Bayern's effortless victory, I believe he has the potential.

-Keelerman

Kobe's Back returns in San Vicente Stakes

Kobe's Back, unraced since a troubled tenth-place finish in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) last December, will make his three-year-old debut on Sunday in the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park.

The Flatter out of Well (by Well Decorated) began his career with a victory in the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes at Betfair Hollywood Park, then came back off a five-month layoff to finish a good second to Eclipse champion Shared Belief in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III). In the CashCall Futurity, Kobe's Back clipped heels with a half-mile to run and failed to contend thereafter, but has been training exceptionally well for his return, and should appreciate the cutback to a sprint distance.

Five other young colts have been entered in the seven-furlong race, which lost a great deal of luster when expected favorite Indianapolis came down with an illness and was forced to withdraw. Kobe's Back's biggest challenge will likely come from Papa Turf, who finished second to Indianapolis in the San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita last month, and Roger Rocket, an impressive debut winner for trainer Bob Baffert.

Entries:
PP/Horse/Jockey/Trainer
1 Grazen's Hope/Martin Garcia/Steven Miyadi
2 Rprettyboyfloyd/Brice Blanc/Denise E. Breuer
3 Papa Turf/Joe Talamo/James Kasparoff
4 Roger Rocket/Corey Nakatani/Bob Baffert
5 Cherubim/Mike Smith/Simon Callaghan
6 Kobe's Back/Joel Rosario/John Sadler

-Keelerman

Tamarando among the favorites in El Camino Real Derby

Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) winner Tamarando is among the eight horses entered in the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), to be run on February 15th at Golden Gate Fields.

Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, the son of Bertrando is coming off of a runner-up finish last month in California Cup Derby behind the highly-regarded California Chrome. In addition to his victory in the Del Mar Futurity, Tamarando has won the Real Quiet Stakes and placed third in both the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I).

Other prominent entries in the El Camino Real Derby include Enterprising, runner-up in the California Derby; Dance with Fate, runner-up in both the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner Stakes last year; and Icy Ride, a Bob Baffert-trainee that has not finished better than fourth in four starts thus far.

The El Camino Real Derby is an official Kentucky Derby prep race, and will offer a total of seventeen Kentucky Derby qualifications points to the top four finishers -- ten to the winner, four to second, two to third, and one to fourth.

Entries:
PP/Horse/Jockey/Trainer
1 Craftsman/Dennis Carr/Simon Callaghan
2 Puppy Manners/Frank Alvarado/Jerry Hollendorfer
3 Infosec/Isaias Enriquez/Frank Lucarelli
4 Tamarando/Russell Baze/Jerry Hollendorfer
5 Enterprising/Gary Stevens/Tom Proctor
6 Icy Ride/Jose Valdivia, Jr./Bob Baffert
7 I'll Wrap It Up/Juan Hernandez/Doug O'Neill
8 Dance With Fate/Aaron Gryder/Peter Eurton

-Keelerman

Noble Moon returns to work tab at Aqueduct

Promising three-year-old Noble Moon recorded his first workout since winning the January 4th Jerome Stakes (gr. II) when he breezed three furlongs in :38.88 seconds this morning at Aqueduct.

The workout was the fifteenth-fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance. Trained by Leah Gyarmati, the son of Malibu Moon has compiled a record of two wins and a third from three starts, and is training toward a start in the $1,000,000 Wood Memorial (gr. I) on April 5th, which is expected to be his lone race between now and the May 3rd Kentucky Derby (gr. I).

Noble Moon is owned by Treadway Racing and was bred by the Estate of Edward P. Evans.

-Keelerman

Honor Code breezes at Gulfstream Park

Honor Code, winner of the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last year and an early favorite for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), recorded his first workout in nearly a month on February 12th, breezing three furlongs in :35.66 seconds at Gulfstream Park.

Trained by Shug McGaughey, the son of A.P. Indy missed some training time in January after suffering from hind ankle bruising. This spoiled plans to start Honor Code in the February 22nd Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), but now that the colt is back on the work tab, a race like the March 15th Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park could be a logical talent.

Honor Code's workout time was the second-fastest of the morning at that distance, trailing the bullet work by just 0.22 seconds. He was bred by Dell Ridge Farm and is owned by Dell Ridge Farm and Lane's End Racing.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-11-14

There was only one graded stakes race for three-year-olds run last weekend, that being the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita. A field of seven went to post, but in the end, one horse stood out above all, and as a result of his exceptional performance -- well, suffice to say, he has earned the Performance of the Week!

Performance of the Week: Candy Boy
As soon as Candy Boy crossed the finish line in the Robert B. Lewis, there was no doubt in my mind that he had not only turned in the best performance of the week, but quite possibly the best performance of the entire Derby trail thus far. Just look at the fractions of the race, and you'll see what I mean. The opening quarter was run in a solid :23.33 seconds, with Candy Boy racing two lengths back, which means his personal opening quarter was timed in about :23.73. The second quarter went in :23.47, and since Candy Boy remained two lengths behind throughout that fraction, his personal quarter was identical. The third quarter was timed in :24.04, during which Candy Boy made up a half-length, meaning  that his own third quarter was run in :23.94 seconds. Then came a final five-sixteenths in :30.99, during which Candy Boy closed 1 1/2 lengths for a personal final fraction of :30.69 seconds. In terms of fractional times, this was by far the most impressive performance I have seen by a three-year-old thus far this year, and from a visual perspective, it must be ranked second only to Cairo Prince's effort in the Holy Bull -- and there's very little separating them! But the most exciting part is that Candy Boy doesn't appear anywhere near his prime yet, and he should only get stronger with more distance. I ranked him sixth in this week's Kentucky Derby Top Ten, but I'm starting to think that may have been too low.

Outside of the Robert B. Lewis, there weren't a ton of top-notch three-year-old races to be found over the weekend. The best was probably a six-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita, in which Bob Baffert's Pimpernel won by nearly three lengths in the time of 1:08.69. But as I mentioned in my most recent Kentucky Derby Top Ten, he's not really bred to handle a mile and a quarter, so we'll have to wait and see if he can stretch out around two turns before thinking of him as a truly serious Derby contender.

Another weekend maiden race I'd like to mention was a 1 1/16th miles affair at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, which featured a very large field of thirteen. Darley's Bay of Plenty was favored for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, but was forced to endure a very poor trip -- breaking slowly from post position two, working his way to the outside on the first turn, and remaining very wide throughout to finish fourth, beaten just 1 1/2 lengths. In the meantime, 9-1 Ring Weekend stole the race for trainer Graham Motion, overcoming a journey as equally ground-losing as Bay of Plenty's to take a decent lead in the homestretch and just hang on for a half-length victory in the time of 1:43.46. Finishing second was Legend, who worked out a very clever trip in between horses for jockey Luis Saez and closed 1 1/2 lengths in the final furlong to fall just short. Legend had previously finished fourth to Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) winner Vinceremos in a January 4th maiden race at Gulfstream, so I doubt Legend will be a maiden much longer. Lynx surely caught some eyes in finishing third at odds of 50-1 for trainer Roger Attfield, closing strongly in the final furlong to be beaten just 1 1/4 lengths. Like Legend, he should be capable of breaking his maiden in the very near future.

Looking Ahead
Expect to see a major shake-up in the Top Ten rankings next week, as there are a trio of graded stakes races for three-year-olds coming up on the schedule -- the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate Fields on Saturday, the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita on Sunday, and the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on Monday at Oaklawn. Among the major names expected to contest these races are Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner Strong Mandate, Champagne Stakes (gr. I) third-place finisher Ride On Curlin, and Smarty Jones Stakes winner Tanzanite Cat (Southwest Stakes), Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) winner Tamarando (El Camino Real Derby), and San Pedro Stakes winner Indianapolis (San Vicente Stakes). The first two colts currently occupy the third and tenth spots in my Kentucky Derby Top Ten, while strong efforts from Tanzanite Cat, Tamarando and Indianapolis could certainly propel them on to my list.

Another colt that may run this weekend is Dance With Fate, who ran second in both the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year. He was exceptionally impressive in winning a one-mile turf allowance race at Santa Anita on January 24th, and is among the nominations for the El Camino Real Derby. He's been pretty much forgotten during the last couple of months, but a strong showing on Saturday could put his name right back in the Derby conversation.

In other nomination news, whatever small chance there was that Cairo Prince might run in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) was pretty much eliminated when nominations were released for the race, and Cairo Prince's name was not among them.

In conclusion, it's going to be a big weekend! Stay tuned!

-Keelerman

Analyzing the strength of the 2013 BC Juvenile

Question: How strong was the 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile?

The answer to this question could potentially prove very helpful in determining how much of an influence the race will have on the 2014 Triple Crown season. It seems particularly pertinent to try and quantify the strength of the race this year, because the two previous renewals of the race were the complete opposites of each other in terms of eventual influence.

Case in point -- check out the list of races that were won by horses coming out of the 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and compare it to the list of races won by horses from the 2011 Juvenile.

2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile: The nine starters have subsequently won twelve races -- the King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I), Indiana Derby (gr. II), Ohio Derby (gr. III), British Colombia Derby (gr. III), Easy Goer Stakes, Pasco Stakes, Aljamin Stakes, Plate Trial Stakes, and four allowance races.

2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile: The thirteen starters won thirty-one races -- the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), TVG Pacific Classic (gr. I), Woodward Stakes (gr. I), Travers Stakes (gr. I), Florida Derby (gr. I), Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), Alysheba Stakes (gr. II), Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II), Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), San Felipe Stakes (gr. II), U.A.E. Derby (UAE-II), San Vicente Stakes (gr. II), Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II), Gotham Stakes (gr. III), Withers Stakes (gr. III), Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship Stakes (gr. III), Fair Grounds Handicap (gr. III), Colonel E. R. Bradley Handicap (gr. III), Kent Stakes (gr. III), Iowa Derby (gr. III), Carry Back Stakes (gr. III), Lazaro Barrera Memorial Stakes (gr. III), Ohio Derby (gr. III), Delta Mile Stakes, Count Fleet Stakes, Pasco Stakes, Unbridled Stakes, In Summation, Victoria Park Stakes, and two allowance optional claiming races.

The difference is astonishing. Starters from the 2012 Juvenile have come back to win just one grade I stakes, and just four graded stakes races overall. That compares very poorly with the six grade I races captured by starters from the 2011 Juvenile, along with the twenty-three overall graded stakes wins.

Granted, the starters from the 2011 Juvenile have had one extra season to accumulate major victories. But even still, the stock of the 2012 Juvenile starters doesn't appear ready to rise during the coming season -- race winner Shanghai Bobby is retired, as is fifth-place finisher Power Broker. He's Had Enough (2nd), Speak Logistics (7th), Title Contender (8th), and Monument (9th) have all dropped into listed stakes or allowance company, leaving Capo Bastone (3rd; could be a presence in the sprint division this year), Fortify (4th; also in allowance company at the present time), and Dynamic Sky (6th; unraced since a third in the Queen's Plate Stakes) to carry the torch in the major races of 2014.

This is part of what makes the strength of the 2011 Juvenile field so remarkable. Despite being one year older than their 2012 counterparts, six of the 2011 Juvenile starters are still in training -- Fort Loudon (7th; ran on Saturday in the grade III Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes), Optimizer (8th; placed in two grade Is last year and is currently coming back from a minor injury), Speightscity (9th; ran fourth in an overnight stakes in December), Drill (10th; entered in an allowance race on Friday), Alpha (11th; won the grade I Woodward in September and nearing a start down in Florida), and Daddy Long Legs (12th; currently racing at Meydan in Dubai).

But all that aside, my main point here is that in addition to the respective records of the two fields, the difference in quality showed itself dramatically in the 2012 and 2013 Kentucky Derbies. Of the thirteen 2011 Juvenile starters, nine made it to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, comprising nearly half of the Derby field. In contrast, none of the 2012 starters made it to the following year's Derby.

So how strong was the 2013 edition of the Juvenile, and how much of an impact will at have on the 2014 Triple Crown season? Well, let's give it some thought. Here is the complete order of finish from the 2013 Juvenile:

1 New Year's Day
2 Havana
3 Strong Mandate
4 Bond Holder
5 Tap It Rich
6 Mexikoma
7 We Miss Artie
8 Dance With Fate
9 Diamond Bachelor
10 Smarty's Echo
11 Medal Count
12 Rum Count
13 Conquest Titan

The race took a major blow late last year when New Year's Day was retired with a minor injury, but the remaining twelve starters seemed prime to have a major impact on 2014. Havana, who won the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) prior to last year's Juvenile, is on target for a start in the Swale Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream, and should win his fair share of major races this year. Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner Strong Mandate will likely start as the favorite on Monday in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), and I really like his chances for having a big season. FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) victory Bond Holder is training well for a start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 22nd, where the long stretch run at Fair Grounds should mesh well with his late-running style. Tap It Rich gets his season started on Thursday in an allowance race at Santa Anita. Mexikoma is training exceptionally well at Palm Meadows, and should return to the races before too long. We Miss Artie was beaten just a head in the Kitten's Joy Stakes to begin 2014, and is targeting starts in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. II) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Dance with Fate won a turf allowance race last month, and could be gearing up for a start in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). Diamond Bachelor was recently fourth in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), but is probably better on turf, and could make some real noise once returned to that surface. Smarty's Echo finished ninth in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) to begin 2014, but showed great form on synthetic last year and could improve when returned to that surface, perhaps at Keeneland. Medal Count opened the season with an allowance victory on the turf at Gulfstream. Rum Point was tenth in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) in November, but is training well at Santa Anita. Conquest Titan returned to win an allowance race at Churchill, then ran second in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) and is targeting a start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II).

Basically, I am of the opinion that the 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile was a very strong edition of the race, and I believe that they have the potential to match, or even surpass, the record of the 2011 Juvenile. The next few months should tell us more!

-Keelerman

Kentucky Derby Top Ten 2-10-14

1. Top Billing (Curlin - Parade Queen, by A.P. Indy) - Trained by Shug McGaughey

He returned to the work tab on Saturday, breezing a solid half-mile in :49.30 at Payson Park. That clocking was just a fifth of a second off the bullet time, and shows that he remains in good form for his scheduled stakes debut in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II). I thought I was one of relatively few to consider this colt one of the Derby favorites, until he closed at a strong 13-1 in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool #2. Clearly, the bandwagon is filling!

2. Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile - Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He hasn't breezed since the Holy Bull, but I guess that's not surprising, since he's not expected to run again until the Florida Derby. In the meantime, there's not much to say about him, except that he -- like Top Billing -- closed at 13-1 in KDFW pool #2.

3. Strong Mandate (Tiznow - Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
I expect he'll have one more workout before his scheduled return in the Southwest Stakes, where we'll get to find out how he has progressed from age two to three. With the tactical speed to be a part of fast early paces, enough stamina to keep on running after others have tired, and a pedigree that should carry him ten furlongs, any improvement at all could see him leapfrog Cairo Prince on my list.

4. Honor Code (A.P. Indy - Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) Trained by Shug McGaughey
Bettors made him the 12-1 individual favorite in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool #2, but he has still yet to record a workout since his minor setback, and time may be running out for making the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) on March 1st. If that happens, then the next most logical targets would be the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) on March 8th or the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) on March 15th.

5. Shared Belief (Candy Ride - Common Hope, by Storm Cat) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
The results of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes seriously flattered this colt, who defeated Candy Boy with ease in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), but Shared Belief is only now back in training after dealing with a hoof issue, and time is running out for making the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) on March 8th, the next stop on California's road to the Kentucky Derby. If he misses that race, then a complete change in plans may be necessary for this immensely talented colt, with shipping out-of-state perhaps becoming necessary.

6. Candy Boy (Candy Ride - She's an Eleven, by In Excess) Trained by John Sadler

John Sadler had him ready to run in the Robert B. Lewis, and Candy Boy lived up to expectations in winning a very fast renewal of this Santa Anita Derby prep. Allowed to race fourth early on, but just two lengths off of quick fractions (46.80, 1:10.84), Candy Boy moved up well in the fourth quarter mile -- which was run in a very strong :24.80 -- and won by a half-length from Chitu, stopping the clock for 1 1/16th miles in 1:41.83. All told, he ran his final five-sixteenths in about :30.69 seconds, which is an excellent fraction for a race of this type. And most impressively, Candy Boy seemed to be just getting geared up at the finish! Don't look now, but jockey Gary Stevens may be poised to add another Kentucky Derby to his long list of accomplishments.

7. Conquest Titan (Birdstone - Miner's Secret, by Mineshaft) Trained by Mark Casse
He's been confirmed as a starter for the Fountain of Youth (gr. II), which should set him up well for bigger and better things further down the road. We know he likes Churchill Downs, and we know he possesses a potent stretch kick. Now he just needs to secure enough points to make the Derby field, and a top-three effort in the Fountain of Youth could potentially do just that.

8. Commissioner (A.P. Indy - Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Breezed five furlongs in 1:00.90 on February 9th at Palm Meadows Training Center, which was another solid step toward a start in the Fountain of Youth. He got a lot of support in the second Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool, closing as the seventh individual choice at 22-1. If he holds his own -- or defeats -- Top Billing and Conquest Titan in the Fountain of Youth, expect that price to drop in the next future pool.

9. Vicar's in Trouble (Into Mischief - Vibrant, by Vicar) Trained by Michael Maker

He threw down another really solid workout at Fair Grounds on Sunday, blazing five furlongs in 1:00 3/5, which was the fifth-fastest of eight workouts at that distance and just one-fifth of a second off the bullet time. As I've mentioned before, his pedigree does not inspire confidence in his ability to handle ten furlongs in top company, but he was so impressive in the LeComte that I'm hoping his raw talent will trump his genetic disposition.

10. Ride On Curlin (Curlin - Magical Ride, by Storm Cat) Trained by William Gowen
He is tenaciously clinging to this tenth spot over a number of horses, including Midnight Hawk and Chitu. I really don't have any idea what to expect from him in the Southwest Stakes, but his recent workouts have been strong, including a recent five furlongs in 1:03 2/5 at Oaklawn Park. I have the feeling that he's either going to run huge on Monday or run up the track, so don't expect him to stay here in position #10 for much longer -- he's either going to rise up dramatically, or fall off entirely. I'm hoping it's the former!

In order to make room for Candy Boy on this week's list, I unfortunately had to drop Midnight Hawk from his position at the bottom of the rankings. His third-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis was not quite enough for him to move past Ride On Curlin and retain a spot on the list. But that said, I was encouraged by Midnight Hawk's performance for the most part. He showed a new dimension in rating off the pace a bit, although he was a bit rank while doing so, and made a nice run to challenge for the lead in the homestretch before tiring just a bit at the finish. It's important to remember that this race was only his third start, and his first around two turns. With that in mind, Midnight Hawk looks primed to improve next time out, and could easily rejoin my top ten sometime during the coming month.

Let me also take a moment to praise Chitu, the runner-up in the Robert B. Lewis. Really, he was facing an even stiffer challenge than Midnight Hawk, for this was Chitu's first start at a distance longer than six furlongs! I must admit to being somewhat surprised by the strength of his performance, for Chitu chased some very honest fractions throughout the race, courageously turned back a bid from Midnight Hawk in the homestretch, and just succumbed to Candy Boy late while staying on strongly to the finish. Consider him to be in a tie for tenth with Ride On Curlin, at least until that colt starts in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) next Monday.

And while on the topic of horses that just missed the cut, I should mention that Pimpernel was very impressive in breaking his maiden at Santa Anita on Saturday. Trained by Bob Baffert, the colt flashed good speed while making his fourth start, then stayed on strongly in the stretch through a :23.52 final quarter to win by nearly three lengths in 1:08.69. He looks bound for stakes company after that performance, and while his pedigree suggests that he may eventually prove best sprinting, there's no denying that he has the talent to make some noise in the near future.

-Keelerman