Welcome everyone. There's a great day of racing action going on at Churchill Downs and I thought I would celebrate by discussing the races as they happen.
It's post time for the seventh race at Churchill Downs. Calvin Borel is on a roll, having four wins and a third from five mounts, and he already rode the great Rachel Alexandra to a win in the grade II Fleur de Lis Handicap. Although he does not have a mount in this upcoming race, I'm mentioning him because he has two more mounts today. Who knows what he might be able to pull off. . .
Anyway, the next race is the Jefferson Stakes for three year olds. My pick is Guys Reward, along with Gleam of Hope.
They're in the gate. . . I'll be back shortly!
-Keelerman
Saturday, June 12, 2010
BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- June 12
The Triple Crown may be over, but march to the Breeders' Cup has begun. Today is the day of the Stephen Foster Handicap.
The grade I, $600,000 race has been won by some very good horses, such as Curlin and Victory Gallop. But I must admit that this year's running is one of the toughest I have ever seen.
Eleven horses have turned out for the mile and an eighth race, and you can tell how tough the field is when a nice horse like Arson Squad is 8-1 on the morning line.
Speaking of the morning line, the favorite is 5-2 Battle Plan, which surprises me to some extent, as I figured that Blame would be the heavy favorite. But anyway. . .
Battle Plan has won four of his five starts, with his only bad finish coming in his maiden race, where he ran eighth. He then broke his maiden impressively by nearly eight lengths at Gulfstream Park in January 2009. He was then given a year off and has returned very well, winning two allowance races. Stepped up to stakes company, he destroyed a classy field of ten in the grade II New Orleans Handicap which included General Quarters, Awesome Gem, Star Guitar, Giant Oak, and Hold Me Back. He could very well extend his winning streak to five today.
Then there is Blame. The 3-1 second choice, he is riding a three race winning streak, with wins in the Fayette Stakes, Clark Handicap, and the William Donald Schaefer Stakes. In the Clark, he dualed with and defeated eventual Santa Anita Handicap winner Misremembered, and the Clark was run here at Churchill Downs. So he is without a doubt a major contender and may end up being one of the favorites for the Breeders' Cup Classic later this year.
Duke of Mischief, 6-1 on the morning line, is another solid contender. The four year old colt comes off of an impressive win in the grade II Oaklawn Handicap in early April, and defeated some nice horses in that race. Prior to that, he had finished eighth in the Donn Handicap, beaten twenty lengths by Quality Road, and had won the rained off the turf grade II Fort Lauderdale Stakes. His running style, sitting just off the lead, could help him here, but he needs a slower pace than the one he chased in the Donn to win.
Arson Squad, General Quarters, and Macho Again are other top contenders. Arson Squad comes into the race off of a sharp win in the grade III Alysheba Stakes at this track, and General Quarters is a two time grade I winner, although his best races have come on turf and synthetic tracks. Macho Again won this race last year, but has turned in three poor efforts since then. But he seems to be coming into this race the right way and could come flying late if the pace is quick.
No Advantage is interesting as well. Although he is 30-1 on the morning line, he comes into the race off of a second place finish to Blame, beaten a length and a half, in the William Donald Schaefer Stakes. With Calvin Borel in the saddle, he could pull a surprising upset.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Blame
2 Battle Plan
3 Arson Squad
4 Duke of Mischief
5 No Advantage
6 General Quarters
7 Macho Again
8 Giant Oak
9 Honest Man
10 Demarcation
11 A. U. Miner
It's going to be a close finish for sure, but I think that Blame will overcome the far outside post position and win by a half length or so. Battle Plan has been running very well and will be tough to catch, and Arson Squad could very well come running late. Duke of Mischief and No Advantage are also in with big chances, but I don't believe that General Quarters is going to get it done. His best running has come on turf and synthetic, so I can see him being in the mix but not quite getting there.
I'm leaving Macho Again out of the top spots because I can't see him getting the pace he needs.
I'll be back shortly with more. . .
-Keelerman
The grade I, $600,000 race has been won by some very good horses, such as Curlin and Victory Gallop. But I must admit that this year's running is one of the toughest I have ever seen.
Eleven horses have turned out for the mile and an eighth race, and you can tell how tough the field is when a nice horse like Arson Squad is 8-1 on the morning line.
Speaking of the morning line, the favorite is 5-2 Battle Plan, which surprises me to some extent, as I figured that Blame would be the heavy favorite. But anyway. . .
Battle Plan has won four of his five starts, with his only bad finish coming in his maiden race, where he ran eighth. He then broke his maiden impressively by nearly eight lengths at Gulfstream Park in January 2009. He was then given a year off and has returned very well, winning two allowance races. Stepped up to stakes company, he destroyed a classy field of ten in the grade II New Orleans Handicap which included General Quarters, Awesome Gem, Star Guitar, Giant Oak, and Hold Me Back. He could very well extend his winning streak to five today.
Then there is Blame. The 3-1 second choice, he is riding a three race winning streak, with wins in the Fayette Stakes, Clark Handicap, and the William Donald Schaefer Stakes. In the Clark, he dualed with and defeated eventual Santa Anita Handicap winner Misremembered, and the Clark was run here at Churchill Downs. So he is without a doubt a major contender and may end up being one of the favorites for the Breeders' Cup Classic later this year.
Duke of Mischief, 6-1 on the morning line, is another solid contender. The four year old colt comes off of an impressive win in the grade II Oaklawn Handicap in early April, and defeated some nice horses in that race. Prior to that, he had finished eighth in the Donn Handicap, beaten twenty lengths by Quality Road, and had won the rained off the turf grade II Fort Lauderdale Stakes. His running style, sitting just off the lead, could help him here, but he needs a slower pace than the one he chased in the Donn to win.
Arson Squad, General Quarters, and Macho Again are other top contenders. Arson Squad comes into the race off of a sharp win in the grade III Alysheba Stakes at this track, and General Quarters is a two time grade I winner, although his best races have come on turf and synthetic tracks. Macho Again won this race last year, but has turned in three poor efforts since then. But he seems to be coming into this race the right way and could come flying late if the pace is quick.
No Advantage is interesting as well. Although he is 30-1 on the morning line, he comes into the race off of a second place finish to Blame, beaten a length and a half, in the William Donald Schaefer Stakes. With Calvin Borel in the saddle, he could pull a surprising upset.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Blame
2 Battle Plan
3 Arson Squad
4 Duke of Mischief
5 No Advantage
6 General Quarters
7 Macho Again
8 Giant Oak
9 Honest Man
10 Demarcation
11 A. U. Miner
It's going to be a close finish for sure, but I think that Blame will overcome the far outside post position and win by a half length or so. Battle Plan has been running very well and will be tough to catch, and Arson Squad could very well come running late. Duke of Mischief and No Advantage are also in with big chances, but I don't believe that General Quarters is going to get it done. His best running has come on turf and synthetic, so I can see him being in the mix but not quite getting there.
I'm leaving Macho Again out of the top spots because I can't see him getting the pace he needs.
I'll be back shortly with more. . .
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- BELMONT STAKES RECAP
NOTICE: Although I don't want to say this, today's post is the final "Triple Crown Countdown" of 2010. But don't worry, I intend to switch over to "Breeders' Cup Countdowns" in couple of days. The blog will remain "Keelerman's Triple Crown Countdown" and I will follow the two year olds of 2010 all the way to the 2011 Triple Crown, but I just thought I would mention that we will be focusing more on the Breeders' Cup from here on. So anyway. . .
BELMONT STAKES RECAP
It was to be the battle of the runner ups. There was the chestnut Ice Box, a brilliant stretch runner whose late runs had earned him a grade I win in the Florida Derby and a second place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He was bred to run a mile and a half and looked ready to give trainer Nick Zito his third win in the Belmont Stakes.
Then there was First Dude. The bay colt had not run in the Kentucky Derby due to insufficient graded earnings, but had turned in a monster performance to finish second in the Preakness Stakes to the champion two year old Lookin at Lucky. In that race, he set blazing fractions and was only beaten by three quarters of a length. With his extremely long stride and his incredible pedigree, he looked ready to go wire-to-wire in the Test of Champions.
However, it was fact that both of them could not run their best races. If First Dude set the slow pace that he needed, Ice Box would not be able to close any ground. If First Dude set the pace that Ice Box needed, he would tire. It was fairly obvious to everyone that the pace would make the race.
In reality, none of it mattered.
The start was good for all except Stay Put, who broke in the air. As expected, First Dude raced right to the lead, but Interactif on the far outside decide to challenge him early. Uptowncharlybrown was also right in the mix, as was Game On Dude, Drosselmeyer, and Fly Down.
It looked like the pace would be a quick one. Then I saw the first quarter mile of :24 flat and I realized that they were going to crawl all the way around.
This was not good for Ice Box, who was sitting ninth, eight lengths off the lead.
So into the huge Belmont first turn they went, First Dude leading the way by a length, with Interactif tracking him in second. Game On Dude had moved just a bit closer to be third, and Uptowncharlybrown was fourth.
Interestingly, Mike Smith, riding Drosselmeyer, was keeping his mount in the clear on the outside. At the time I didn't think about it, but I soon would.
Through a half in :49 flat and three quarters in 1:14 4/5, the positions remained pretty much unchanged. Ice Box was creeping a bit closer, as were Stately Victor, Stay Put, and Make Music for Me, but in the end no closer would come close.
After a mile in a tedious 1:40 1/5, First Dude still had the lead. He has gotten the pace he needed. Only one question remained --- how good was he? Was he a super horse who would prove his greatness in the longest of the Triple Crown races? Or would he fail like so many other three year olds who chose to run in the Test of Champions? That question would be answered in the final half mile.
Interactif and Game On Dude still stuck with him stubbornly. Drosselmeyer was still five wide on the turns of doom, and Uptowncharlybrown was still in with a chance. Fly Down was right there in sixth, just three and a half lengths off the lead, and Ice Box was only five lengths behind First Dude.
The battle began.
After running a mile and a quarter in 2:04 4/5, there was only a quarter of a mile to run. Interactif was retreating, but Game On Dude and Drosselmeyer were both moving into contention. Fly Down was desperately looking for racing room, and Ice Box was. . . tiring!
Down the stretch they came, First Dude, Drosselmeyer, and Game On Dude. Uptowncharlybrown was running his heart out on the rail, and Fly Down was moving to the outside.
Game On Dude flattened out. . . Fly Down was coming with a rush. . . and despite setting pedestrian fractions, First Dude was tiring as well!
The crowd cheered. Dale Romans, trainer of First Dude, William Mott, trainer of Drosselmeyer, and Nick Zito all saw visions of a Belmont victory. But in the end, Mike Smith got Drosselmeyer home on top by three quarters of a length, running the mile and a half in 2:31 2/5.
Fly Down rallied strongly for second, meaning that Nick Zito had hit the board in all three Triple Crown races with three different horses. It's probably a first.
But what mattered most was that Mike Smith had finally won the Belmont Stakes, a race that had eluded him for over twenty years. And William Mott finally won a Triple Crown race. The youngest trainer ever to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, the trainer of the great Cigar and many other good horses, finally broke through with a win in the Belmont Stakes.
Game On Dude finished fourth after running a tremendous race, much better than I thought he would. Uptowncharlybrown ran a gutsy race to finish fifth, but was disqualified when it was discovered that his eight pound lead weight had slipped off his saddle at the seven eighths pole. He was placed last. His trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, took the blame for incident, and said that he was glad Uptowncharlybrown hadn't finished first.
So here is the complete order of finish (with Uptowncharlybrown in fifth place). . .
1 Drosselmeyer
2 Fly Down
3 First Dude
4 Game On Dude
5 Uptowncharlybrown
6 Stay Put
7 Interactif
8 Stately Victor
9 Ice Box
10 Make Music for Me
11 Dave in Dixie
12 Spangled Star
. . . and here were my "Official Picks. . .
1 Ice Box
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Stately Victor
7 Stay Put
8 Drosselmeyer
9 Interactif
10 Game On Dude
11 Dave in Dixie
12 Spangled Star
. . . my "Gut Feeling" picks. . .
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Fly Down
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Stately Victor
6 First Dude
7 Spangled Star
8 Dave in Dixie
9 Game On Dude
10 Interactif
11 Drosselmeyer
12 Stay Put
. . . my "Highest Beyer Speed Figure In Last Race" picks. . .
1 First Dude
2 Ice Box
3 Fly Down
4 Make Music for Me
5 Game On Dude
6 Uptowncharlybrown (DH)
6 Stately Victor (DH)
8 Stay Put
9 Drosselmeyer
10 Spangled Star
11 Interactif
12 Dave in Dixie
. . . my "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks. . .
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Dave in Dixie
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Game On Dude
7 Interactif
8 Stay Put
9 Make Music for Me
10 Stately Victor
11 Ice Box
12 Spangled Star
. . . my "Random Picks". . .
1 Stately Victor
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 First Dude
4 Make Music for Me
5 Interactif
6 Drosselmeyer
7 Stay Put
8 Dave in Dixie
9 Fly Down
10 Ice Box
11 Star Spangled
12 Game On Dude
. . . and "J. R.'s Picks". . .
1 Spangled Star
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Game On Dude
6 Fly Down
7 Dave in Dixie
8 Stately Victor
9 Stay Put
10 First Dude
11 Interactif
12 Drosselmeyer
Before I go into how badly I did, let me say a few things. . .
#1. Ice Box had absolutely no pace to chase, and he displaced his palate as well.
#2. Drosselmeyer was one of my top picks before I heard the news that he had frog problems. I had actually considered picking him to win, but would you pick a horse with foot problems?
Now I shall discuss how I did.
My "Official Picks" did better than my "Gut Feeling" picks. I accurately predicted where Spangled Star and Dave in Dixie would finish (but then again, I think everybody did!) and I was fairly close on several others. My "Gut Feeling" that Uptowncharlybrown would win didn't happen, but he did run fairly well.
My "Highest Beyer Speed Figure In Last Race" picks did not hit anything at all. The "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks did much better, putting Spangled Star and Interactif in the right places, although it did pick Dave in Dixie to finish second. On the other hand, it picked Drosselmeyer to finish third. . .
The "Random Picks" actually didn't do too bad either. They had First Dude to finish third, and Ice Box to run tenth, so not all that bad.
And finally, J. R. did worst of all. He would have been closer if he had reversed his picks. He had Spangled Star to win and Drosselmeyer to run last. He had First Dude to finish tenth and Make Music for Me to finish third. Had he reversed his picks, they would have looked like this. . .
1 Drosselmeyer
2 Interactif
3 First Dude
4 Stay Put
5 Stately Victor
6 Dave in Dixie
7 Fly Down
8 Game On Dude
9 Ice Box
10 Make Music for Me
11 Uptowncharlybrown
12 Spangled Star
In that case, he would have had Drosselmeyer, First Dude, Ice Box, Make Music for Me, and Spangled Star in the right places. But in reality, he only had Stately Victor in the right place. So the winner of the Belmont Stakes Handicapping Contest is ME. But don't feel too badly for J. R. He predicted that Switch would upset Blind Luck and I think he might have picked Winchester in the Manhattan Handicap, so he did just fine.
TRIPLE CROWN CONCLUSION
It's been a great five months. When I started this blog, I had absolutely no idea how much fun I would have making my picks and discussing each race. I must admit that I have never enjoyed a Triple Crown more.
I wish I could come up with some dramatic way to end the Triple Crown season, but I can't. Instead, I shall mention a few of the most memorable moments from the Triple Crown which will stand out in my mind for years to come. In no particular order. . .
#1: Todd Pletcher wins the Kentucky Derby.
#2: Calvin Borel wins his third Derby in four years.
#3: Mike Smith wins his first Belmont Stakes to complete his personal Triple Crown.
#4: Lookin at Lucky finally gets lucky in the Preakness.
#5: William Mott wins his first Triple Crown race with Drosselmeyer.
#6: WinStar Farms wins the Derby and the Belmont with Super Saver and Drosselmeyer.
#7: Picking Super Saver as a top Derby contender in November.
#8: Eskendereya wins the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial by daylight.
#9: Watching Blind Luck nail Evening Jewel on the wire in the Kentucky Oaks.
#10: Picking Buddy's Saint to win the Kentucky Derby in December and having him run in one race all spring.
#11: Uptowncharlybrown losing his lead weight in the Belmont.
#12: Seeing Lookin at Lucky re-rally in the Santa Anita Derby to finish third.
#13: Following Dublin all year and watching him lose every race. He will win another grade I someday. . .
I will remember these moments forever.
But this is not really the end. I'll be back tomorrow with my first "Breeders' Cup Countdown" and I shall discuss the Stephen Foster, the Fleur De Lis, and the Lost in the Fog Stakes. And remember, Zenyatta races for her 17th win in the Vanity Handicap on Sunday!
Thanks for all the fun!
-Keelerman
BELMONT STAKES RECAP
It was to be the battle of the runner ups. There was the chestnut Ice Box, a brilliant stretch runner whose late runs had earned him a grade I win in the Florida Derby and a second place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He was bred to run a mile and a half and looked ready to give trainer Nick Zito his third win in the Belmont Stakes.
Then there was First Dude. The bay colt had not run in the Kentucky Derby due to insufficient graded earnings, but had turned in a monster performance to finish second in the Preakness Stakes to the champion two year old Lookin at Lucky. In that race, he set blazing fractions and was only beaten by three quarters of a length. With his extremely long stride and his incredible pedigree, he looked ready to go wire-to-wire in the Test of Champions.
However, it was fact that both of them could not run their best races. If First Dude set the slow pace that he needed, Ice Box would not be able to close any ground. If First Dude set the pace that Ice Box needed, he would tire. It was fairly obvious to everyone that the pace would make the race.
In reality, none of it mattered.
The start was good for all except Stay Put, who broke in the air. As expected, First Dude raced right to the lead, but Interactif on the far outside decide to challenge him early. Uptowncharlybrown was also right in the mix, as was Game On Dude, Drosselmeyer, and Fly Down.
It looked like the pace would be a quick one. Then I saw the first quarter mile of :24 flat and I realized that they were going to crawl all the way around.
This was not good for Ice Box, who was sitting ninth, eight lengths off the lead.
So into the huge Belmont first turn they went, First Dude leading the way by a length, with Interactif tracking him in second. Game On Dude had moved just a bit closer to be third, and Uptowncharlybrown was fourth.
Interestingly, Mike Smith, riding Drosselmeyer, was keeping his mount in the clear on the outside. At the time I didn't think about it, but I soon would.
Through a half in :49 flat and three quarters in 1:14 4/5, the positions remained pretty much unchanged. Ice Box was creeping a bit closer, as were Stately Victor, Stay Put, and Make Music for Me, but in the end no closer would come close.
After a mile in a tedious 1:40 1/5, First Dude still had the lead. He has gotten the pace he needed. Only one question remained --- how good was he? Was he a super horse who would prove his greatness in the longest of the Triple Crown races? Or would he fail like so many other three year olds who chose to run in the Test of Champions? That question would be answered in the final half mile.
Interactif and Game On Dude still stuck with him stubbornly. Drosselmeyer was still five wide on the turns of doom, and Uptowncharlybrown was still in with a chance. Fly Down was right there in sixth, just three and a half lengths off the lead, and Ice Box was only five lengths behind First Dude.
The battle began.
After running a mile and a quarter in 2:04 4/5, there was only a quarter of a mile to run. Interactif was retreating, but Game On Dude and Drosselmeyer were both moving into contention. Fly Down was desperately looking for racing room, and Ice Box was. . . tiring!
Down the stretch they came, First Dude, Drosselmeyer, and Game On Dude. Uptowncharlybrown was running his heart out on the rail, and Fly Down was moving to the outside.
Game On Dude flattened out. . . Fly Down was coming with a rush. . . and despite setting pedestrian fractions, First Dude was tiring as well!
The crowd cheered. Dale Romans, trainer of First Dude, William Mott, trainer of Drosselmeyer, and Nick Zito all saw visions of a Belmont victory. But in the end, Mike Smith got Drosselmeyer home on top by three quarters of a length, running the mile and a half in 2:31 2/5.
Fly Down rallied strongly for second, meaning that Nick Zito had hit the board in all three Triple Crown races with three different horses. It's probably a first.
But what mattered most was that Mike Smith had finally won the Belmont Stakes, a race that had eluded him for over twenty years. And William Mott finally won a Triple Crown race. The youngest trainer ever to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, the trainer of the great Cigar and many other good horses, finally broke through with a win in the Belmont Stakes.
Game On Dude finished fourth after running a tremendous race, much better than I thought he would. Uptowncharlybrown ran a gutsy race to finish fifth, but was disqualified when it was discovered that his eight pound lead weight had slipped off his saddle at the seven eighths pole. He was placed last. His trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, took the blame for incident, and said that he was glad Uptowncharlybrown hadn't finished first.
So here is the complete order of finish (with Uptowncharlybrown in fifth place). . .
1 Drosselmeyer
2 Fly Down
3 First Dude
4 Game On Dude
5 Uptowncharlybrown
6 Stay Put
7 Interactif
8 Stately Victor
9 Ice Box
10 Make Music for Me
11 Dave in Dixie
12 Spangled Star
. . . and here were my "Official Picks. . .
1 Ice Box
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Stately Victor
7 Stay Put
8 Drosselmeyer
9 Interactif
10 Game On Dude
11 Dave in Dixie
12 Spangled Star
. . . my "Gut Feeling" picks. . .
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Fly Down
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Stately Victor
6 First Dude
7 Spangled Star
8 Dave in Dixie
9 Game On Dude
10 Interactif
11 Drosselmeyer
12 Stay Put
. . . my "Highest Beyer Speed Figure In Last Race" picks. . .
1 First Dude
2 Ice Box
3 Fly Down
4 Make Music for Me
5 Game On Dude
6 Uptowncharlybrown (DH)
6 Stately Victor (DH)
8 Stay Put
9 Drosselmeyer
10 Spangled Star
11 Interactif
12 Dave in Dixie
. . . my "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks. . .
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Dave in Dixie
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Game On Dude
7 Interactif
8 Stay Put
9 Make Music for Me
10 Stately Victor
11 Ice Box
12 Spangled Star
. . . my "Random Picks". . .
1 Stately Victor
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 First Dude
4 Make Music for Me
5 Interactif
6 Drosselmeyer
7 Stay Put
8 Dave in Dixie
9 Fly Down
10 Ice Box
11 Star Spangled
12 Game On Dude
. . . and "J. R.'s Picks". . .
1 Spangled Star
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Game On Dude
6 Fly Down
7 Dave in Dixie
8 Stately Victor
9 Stay Put
10 First Dude
11 Interactif
12 Drosselmeyer
Before I go into how badly I did, let me say a few things. . .
#1. Ice Box had absolutely no pace to chase, and he displaced his palate as well.
#2. Drosselmeyer was one of my top picks before I heard the news that he had frog problems. I had actually considered picking him to win, but would you pick a horse with foot problems?
Now I shall discuss how I did.
My "Official Picks" did better than my "Gut Feeling" picks. I accurately predicted where Spangled Star and Dave in Dixie would finish (but then again, I think everybody did!) and I was fairly close on several others. My "Gut Feeling" that Uptowncharlybrown would win didn't happen, but he did run fairly well.
My "Highest Beyer Speed Figure In Last Race" picks did not hit anything at all. The "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks did much better, putting Spangled Star and Interactif in the right places, although it did pick Dave in Dixie to finish second. On the other hand, it picked Drosselmeyer to finish third. . .
The "Random Picks" actually didn't do too bad either. They had First Dude to finish third, and Ice Box to run tenth, so not all that bad.
And finally, J. R. did worst of all. He would have been closer if he had reversed his picks. He had Spangled Star to win and Drosselmeyer to run last. He had First Dude to finish tenth and Make Music for Me to finish third. Had he reversed his picks, they would have looked like this. . .
1 Drosselmeyer
2 Interactif
3 First Dude
4 Stay Put
5 Stately Victor
6 Dave in Dixie
7 Fly Down
8 Game On Dude
9 Ice Box
10 Make Music for Me
11 Uptowncharlybrown
12 Spangled Star
In that case, he would have had Drosselmeyer, First Dude, Ice Box, Make Music for Me, and Spangled Star in the right places. But in reality, he only had Stately Victor in the right place. So the winner of the Belmont Stakes Handicapping Contest is ME. But don't feel too badly for J. R. He predicted that Switch would upset Blind Luck and I think he might have picked Winchester in the Manhattan Handicap, so he did just fine.
TRIPLE CROWN CONCLUSION
It's been a great five months. When I started this blog, I had absolutely no idea how much fun I would have making my picks and discussing each race. I must admit that I have never enjoyed a Triple Crown more.
I wish I could come up with some dramatic way to end the Triple Crown season, but I can't. Instead, I shall mention a few of the most memorable moments from the Triple Crown which will stand out in my mind for years to come. In no particular order. . .
#1: Todd Pletcher wins the Kentucky Derby.
#2: Calvin Borel wins his third Derby in four years.
#3: Mike Smith wins his first Belmont Stakes to complete his personal Triple Crown.
#4: Lookin at Lucky finally gets lucky in the Preakness.
#5: William Mott wins his first Triple Crown race with Drosselmeyer.
#6: WinStar Farms wins the Derby and the Belmont with Super Saver and Drosselmeyer.
#7: Picking Super Saver as a top Derby contender in November.
#8: Eskendereya wins the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial by daylight.
#9: Watching Blind Luck nail Evening Jewel on the wire in the Kentucky Oaks.
#10: Picking Buddy's Saint to win the Kentucky Derby in December and having him run in one race all spring.
#11: Uptowncharlybrown losing his lead weight in the Belmont.
#12: Seeing Lookin at Lucky re-rally in the Santa Anita Derby to finish third.
#13: Following Dublin all year and watching him lose every race. He will win another grade I someday. . .
I will remember these moments forever.
But this is not really the end. I'll be back tomorrow with my first "Breeders' Cup Countdown" and I shall discuss the Stephen Foster, the Fleur De Lis, and the Lost in the Fog Stakes. And remember, Zenyatta races for her 17th win in the Vanity Handicap on Sunday!
Thanks for all the fun!
-Keelerman
Saturday, June 05, 2010
DROSSELMEYER WON!!!
Under an excellent ride by Mike Smith, Drosselmeyer earned his first stakes win in the Belmont Stakes.
It was the first Belmont Stakes win for Mike Smith and the first Triple Crown race win for Bill Mott!
What a race! It was terribly close!
-Keelerman
It was the first Belmont Stakes win for Mike Smith and the first Triple Crown race win for Bill Mott!
What a race! It was terribly close!
-Keelerman
BELMONT UPDATE 4
1 minute to post! The horses have reached the starting gate!!
Spangled Star is now 22-1, and Stay Put is 25-1. They are the two longest shots in the field.
Can Nick Zito win his third Belmont Stakes? It's post time!
According to ABC, Make Music for Me got scared by the music being played and is hot right now.
Uptowncharlybrown is going into the gate! Drosselmeyer and Game On Dude are already in!
I'll be back!
-Keelerman
Spangled Star is now 22-1, and Stay Put is 25-1. They are the two longest shots in the field.
Can Nick Zito win his third Belmont Stakes? It's post time!
According to ABC, Make Music for Me got scared by the music being played and is hot right now.
Uptowncharlybrown is going into the gate! Drosselmeyer and Game On Dude are already in!
I'll be back!
-Keelerman
BELMONT UPDATE 3
The riders are mounting their horses now. They are now walking through the paddock, heading to the racetrack.
It is just eleven minutes to post. Ice Box has risen to 9-5, while Fly Down is 5-1 and First Dude 6-1.
The call to the post is being sounded. It's getting closer. . .!
It's post parade time! Dave in Dixie looks like. So does Spangled Star. Uptowncharlybrown looks excited. Make Music for Me looks just fine. Fly Down very good. Ice Box is playing with his lead pony. Drosselmeyer is walking by now. Game On Dude looks great, Stately Victor is on his toes, Stay Put looks very calm. First Dude looks good, and Interactif is looks anxious.
It's five minutes to post now! Who will win the 142nd Belmont Stakes? This is so exciting!!!
-Keelerman
It is just eleven minutes to post. Ice Box has risen to 9-5, while Fly Down is 5-1 and First Dude 6-1.
The call to the post is being sounded. It's getting closer. . .!
It's post parade time! Dave in Dixie looks like. So does Spangled Star. Uptowncharlybrown looks excited. Make Music for Me looks just fine. Fly Down very good. Ice Box is playing with his lead pony. Drosselmeyer is walking by now. Game On Dude looks great, Stately Victor is on his toes, Stay Put looks very calm. First Dude looks good, and Interactif is looks anxious.
It's five minutes to post now! Who will win the 142nd Belmont Stakes? This is so exciting!!!
-Keelerman
BELMONT STAKES UPDATE
Dave in Dixie - 12-1
Spangled Star - 20-1
Uptowncharlybrown - 10-1
Make Music for Me - 11-1
Fly Down - 6-1
Ice Box - 8-5
Drosselmeyer - 12-1
Game On Dude - 16-1
Stately Victor - 14-1
Stay Put - 26-1
First Dude - 6-1
Interactif - 20-1
I cannot believe that First Dude is 6-1. I figured that he would be about 7-2, with Ice Box at 3-1. Instead, Ice Box is 8-5!
Another thing I am surprised about is the fact that Spangled Star is 20-1. I thought that he would be 40-1. Stay Put is actually the longshot at 26-1.
It is now just 21 minutes to post. In less than a half an hour, the Triple Crown will conclude. Will Ice Box win? Or will Stay Put or Spangled Star pull the upset? We shall see.
-Keelerman
Spangled Star - 20-1
Uptowncharlybrown - 10-1
Make Music for Me - 11-1
Fly Down - 6-1
Ice Box - 8-5
Drosselmeyer - 12-1
Game On Dude - 16-1
Stately Victor - 14-1
Stay Put - 26-1
First Dude - 6-1
Interactif - 20-1
I cannot believe that First Dude is 6-1. I figured that he would be about 7-2, with Ice Box at 3-1. Instead, Ice Box is 8-5!
Another thing I am surprised about is the fact that Spangled Star is 20-1. I thought that he would be 40-1. Stay Put is actually the longshot at 26-1.
It is now just 21 minutes to post. In less than a half an hour, the Triple Crown will conclude. Will Ice Box win? Or will Stay Put or Spangled Star pull the upset? We shall see.
-Keelerman
WINCHESTER WINS THE MANHATTAN HANDICAP!!!
In a thrilling finish, Winchester pulled a 21-1 upset over champion Gio Ponti.
Expansion finished third, Take the Points fourth.
I'll be back soon!
-Keelerman
Expansion finished third, Take the Points fourth.
I'll be back soon!
-Keelerman
WOODFORD RESERVE MANHATTAN HANDICAP ---- 5 minutes to post
It is now just five minutes to post time. The odds have not changed for the favorites.
Can Gio Ponti win for the first time since the Arlington Million? He has run second three times and fourth once.
I think that he can do it.
1 minute to post. It's nearly time!!
They're loading into the gate!
-Keelerman
Can Gio Ponti win for the first time since the Arlington Million? He has run second three times and fourth once.
I think that he can do it.
1 minute to post. It's nearly time!!
They're loading into the gate!
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- JUNE 5th, 2010
Today, the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes will enter the history books. I have discussed it thoroughly on my last post. This post is dedicated to the undercard races, as well as the other racing action around the country. And I will also recap what happened last week.
I will begin with the Acorn Stakes.
ACORN STAKES (gr. I) ---- Belmont Park, Race 9, June 5th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)
The Acorn Stakes, which is the first leg of the Triple Tiara, the Triple Crown for fillies, drew a solid field of fourteen, much larger than I had anticipated. And when the morning line favorite is 4-1, you know that they are evenly matched.
As I have a lot to do before the Belmont Stakes is run, I don't have a ton of time to discuss each race, so instead I shall briefly discuss my picks. And I shall also mention that I talked J. R. into giving me his picks.
My top pick is Amen Hallelujah. In my opinion, this race suits her perfectly. The distance is one mile, which I believe is her best, and she has drawn an ideal post position. She has Ramon Dominguez as a rider and has her excuses in the Kentucky Oaks. She looks ready to run huge.
Tanda is another filly I like. She will be making her first start on dirt, which always seems to be a good thing, but has drawn a less than perfect post position. However, she is on a three race win streak that includes wins in the Railbird and Santa Paula Stakes, both grade III. Her jockey, Alex Solis, is a very good jockey, but I don't believe he has ridden at Belmont Park too often.
Streaker is a potential upset filly. She is undefeated in three starts, but this will be her first try in a stakes race. She has a win over this track, and beat Acting Happy in an allowance race on March 27th. Acting Happy went on to flatter Streaker by upsetting the grade II Black-Eyed Susan Stakes three weeks ago.
I would pick Crisp to win, excusing her poor showing in the Kentucky Oaks because she was unable to get to the lead, except that she drew gate thirteen. In my opinion, she has too much to overcome. And her jockey Calvin Borel does not know the track very well.
Finally, Buckleupbuttercup, Seeking the Title, and Tidal Pool are all contenders as well. Buckleupbuttercup could come through with a huge win if the track turns up sloppy, which it might. Seeking the Title didn't get a chance at making her run in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, as she tripped over a fallen Diva Delite and did not finish the race. She could run a huge race, and with Kent Desormeaux in the saddle, who knows what might happen.
As for Tidal Pool, she has been running very well lately, with thirds in the Kentucky Oaks and Black-Eyed Susan, but has yet to win a stakes race. However, she gets a jockey change this time around, with Rajiv Maragh replacing Calvin Borel. She is the 4-1 morning line favorite and could run huge, but will she be caught wide on the turn? We'll see.
Much Rejoicing is the final filly I will mention. She is undefeated in two starts, winning a maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park and an allowance race at Keeneland so far. 10-1 on the morning line, she has Alan Garcia in the saddle and might surprise a few people by hitting the board.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Amen Hallelujah
2 Tanda
3 Tidal Pool
4 Buckleupbuttercup
5 Streaker
6 Crisp
7 Indian Burn
8 Quiet Temper
9 Much Rejoicing
10 Seeking the Title
11 Champagne d'Oro
12 Dances with Ashley
13 Hot Trip
I feel that Amen Hallelujah is ready to run her best race and will win by a length or two, with Tanda rallying for second and Tidal Pool holding third over Buckleupbuttercup and Streaker.
Now I am sure that you are all curious as to J. R.'s picks. After picking Spangled Star to win the Belmont Stakes, he decided to be a little bit more conservative this time around. He has singled Streaker to defeat Indian Burn and Amen Hallelujah. Wow.
Here are all of his picks. . .
1 Streaker
2 Indian Burn
3 Amen Hallelujah
4 Seeking the Title
5 Buckleupbuttercup
6 Tanda
7 Tidal Pool
8 Much Rejoicing
9 Champagne d'Oro
10 Quiet Temper
11 Crisp
12 Dances with Ashley
13 Hot Trip
Once again, it's a handicapping contest, me against him. We're going to go at it all day and see who picks the most winners at Belmont Park. We'll take a look now at the Woody Stephens Stakes.
WOODY STEPHENS STAKES (gr. II) ---- Belmont Park, Race 6, June 5th
7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Named for the great trainer Woody Stephens, who won the Belmont Stakes five times in a row back in the eighties, the Woody Stephens Stakes has drawn only five entries, but every one of them deserves to be here.
But I feel that it comes down to two horse: Eightfiveinafifty and D' Funnybone. Both are proven at this distance, and D' Funnybone destroyed the grade II Futurity Stakes at this distance at this track last year.
Discreetly Mine, who is expected to give them a run for their money, ran second in the Futurity. He has more than proven himself at this track, running second in the grade I Champagne Stakes as well, but I do question his ability to stay with the top two favorites. He just hasn't shown that kind of raw speed.
Thank U Philippe, at 6-1 on the morning line, seems to be a seven furlong specialist and could upset the big two if they falter. And even Remand at 10-1 could earn a piece of it. He is coming off of a third place finish in the nine furlong Dwyer Stakes. Prior to that, he had finished third to Eightfiveinafifty and Hurricane Ike in the Bay Shore Stakes.
Here are my picks for this race. . .
1 D' Funnybone
2 Remand
3 Eightfiveinafifty
4 Discreetly Mine
5 Thank U Philippe
. . . and here are J. R.'s picks.
1 Remand
2 Discreetly Mine
3 Eightyfiveinafifty
4 Thank U Philippe
5 D' Funnybone
I feel that D' Funnybone is the best horse in the race and perhaps more rateable than Eightfiveinafifty. Of course, it is possible that the two of them could hook up early, setting the race up for a closer, but I think D' Funnybone will hang on to win.
However, J. R. doesn't think so. He believes that the two favorites will hook up and dual each other into submission, allowing Remand to sneak in for the victory. It's possible that it could happen, but I just don't think so.
Now I shall briefly discuss the Hollywood Oaks.
HOLLYWOOD OAKS (gr. II) ---- Hollywood Park, Race 8, June 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
The Hollywood Oaks, a grade II race for three year old fillies, is short on entries but not on talent. Headlined by the Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck, the race should be a good one.
Obviously, Blind Luck is the best filly in the race, but can she be upset? She will be giving away four to ten pounds, and there are a couple of fillies here who could slow the pace down enough to hold off her late charge.
The first filly I will mention is Switch. She gets into the race with only 113 pounds, ten less than Blind Luck. She comes into the race off of a closing second in the grade III Railbird Stakes, beaten a half length by Tanda, who is running in the Acorn Stakes today. She has talent and might be able to get a clear lead and hold off Blind Luck.
Then there is Camille C. Carrying 119 pounds, she comes into the race off of a sharp win in the Melair Stakes back in late April. Prior to that, she had finished fourth to City to City, Andina, and In the Slips after setting the pace in the grade II Providencia Stakes. With a bit of luck, she could run well.
Antares World and Vision in Gold complete the field. The former comes off of a nice win in the Golden Poppy Stakes, the latter off of a fifth place finish in the Railbird Stakes.
My picks are these. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 Switch
3 Camille C
4 Antares World
5 Vision in Gold
I feel that Blind Luck is much the best and can overcome anything. Yes, ten pounds is a lot to give away, but I think that she can handle it. I have always liked Switch and she looks to be a clear second here.
J. R. has different thoughts. He thinks that Blind Luck has way too much to overcome and will end up second behind Switch.
"Switch is carrying ten pounds less than Blind Luck, and I think that she can slow the pace down and hold on." he said.
So his picks look like this. . .
1 Switch
2 Blind Luck
3 Camille C
4 Antaras World
5 Vision in Gold.
Very similar to my picks, just reversing the top two. We'll see what happens.
RACE RECAPS
Before I conclude this post and begin my preparations for the Belmont Stakes, I would like to recap last week's races and see how my picks did.
In the Dogwood Stakes, I was fairly confident that Fuzzy Britches would upset Ailalea. I had many reasons for thinking this, one of them being that Ailalea would bounce off of her Kentucky Oaks effort.
Ailalea did not bounce.
In the early stages, Helen Belen went to the front as expected, followed closely by Visavis on her outside and Ailalea in the three path. Fuzzy Britches was sitting about six lengths off the lead.
Though the fractions were very sharp, Calvin Borel moved Ailalea up on the outside and took the lead just past the quarter pole. His filly quickly opened up a two length lead approaching the eighth pole. Fuzzy Britches came running late on the outside, but tired as the wire approached. Tap Tap Tapping, at 31-1, came from the clouds with a very sharp late rally but Ailalea had just enough to hold her off by a length. Fuzzy Britches finished third.
So here are the results. . .
1 Ailalea
2 Tap Tap Tapping
3 Fuzzy Britches
4 Vertical Vision
5 Visavis
6 Helen Belen
7 Age of Humor
8 Bell's Shoes
. . . and here were my picks.
1 Fuzzy Britches
2 Ailalea
3 Age of Humor
4 Visavis
5 Vertical Vision
6 Helen Belen
7 Bell's Shoes
8 Tap Tap Tapping
Not too good, although my top two picks finished in the top three.
In the Marine Stakes at Woodbine, I did better.
The favorite for the mile and a sixteenth event was Exhi, and he was my pick. Hotep was expected to challenge him, and I liked him too.
In the early going, Essence Hit Man led the way, followed by Exhi. Hotep was back in fourth.
With three furlongs to go, Exhi was tired of being second. He blew past Essence Hit Man and took the lead, drawing off to win by four and a half lengths. Hotep rallied for second, with Essence Hit Man third. Those were my three picks.
Third choice Bear's Hard Ten finished last.
However, in the USA Stakes at Lone Star Park, the favorite did not win. In the mile and a sixteenth turf event, Coyote Legend, one of my favorite horses, was the even money choice. Looks Purrrfect was 3-1, Golden Euro 4-1. Of course, Coyote Legend had never raced on turf before, but I felt that he would handle it okay.
In the early going, Coyote Legend looked good. Golden Euro was setting the early pace, turning out fractions of :24 1/5 and :49 1/5. Coyote Legend was sitting second.
They continued like this for much of the race, and when Bobby Walker Jr. asked Coyote Legend for his run, I expected an explosion. Instead, Coyote Legend threw in the towel and faded.
Golden Euro held off Shoot It's War to win by a neck. B'wanagoldmine finished third, followed by Looks Purrrfect, Perfect Lou, Coyote Legend, Nuggets Please and Nate's Mineshaft. Although Coyote Legend finished sixth, he was only beaten four and three quarter lengths.
And then there was the Metropolitan Handicap. Could Quality Road continue his dominance of the older male division with another grade I win?
In the early going, Quality Road hooked up with Le Grand Cru. Together, those two dueled through solid fractions of :22 2/5 and :45 flat. They were tracked by Tizway and Warrior's Reward. Musket Man, the second choice, was as far back as seventh.
With just over a quarter of a mile to go, Warrior's Sword made his bid. With a powerful move, he got to within a length of Quality Road and looked like he would go right ahead and pass him.
But then he turned up empty. Quality Road still led through three quarters of a mile in a blistering 1:08 2/5.
And then Musket Man launched his bid.
Once again, the threat of an upset arose. Musket Man was powering home on the outside and looked like he would go right ahead and win.
But Quality Road dug in and refused to let him pass.
Down to the finish they came and Quality Road won by a length and a half. Musket Man was a very game second, with Tizway finishing third. The final time: 1:33 flat. Equaling the second fastest Met Mile of all time. Not bad.
And finally, in the grade I Gamely Stakes at Hollywood Park, Tuscan Evening continued her dominance of the turf mares division by holding off 2008 Eclipse champion Forever Together by a half length to secure her first grade I win.
After tracking the early pace set by Cat by the Tale, Tuscan Evening took over the lead in the stretch. But Forever Together was closing fast and Tuscan Evening needed every last bit of stamina to hold her off. Cat by the Tale finished third, followed by Well Monied, General Concensus, Gotta Have Her and Princess Haya.
And so that concludes this post. Now I am off to prepare for the Belmont Stakes.
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
I will begin with the Acorn Stakes.
ACORN STAKES (gr. I) ---- Belmont Park, Race 9, June 5th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)
The Acorn Stakes, which is the first leg of the Triple Tiara, the Triple Crown for fillies, drew a solid field of fourteen, much larger than I had anticipated. And when the morning line favorite is 4-1, you know that they are evenly matched.
As I have a lot to do before the Belmont Stakes is run, I don't have a ton of time to discuss each race, so instead I shall briefly discuss my picks. And I shall also mention that I talked J. R. into giving me his picks.
My top pick is Amen Hallelujah. In my opinion, this race suits her perfectly. The distance is one mile, which I believe is her best, and she has drawn an ideal post position. She has Ramon Dominguez as a rider and has her excuses in the Kentucky Oaks. She looks ready to run huge.
Tanda is another filly I like. She will be making her first start on dirt, which always seems to be a good thing, but has drawn a less than perfect post position. However, she is on a three race win streak that includes wins in the Railbird and Santa Paula Stakes, both grade III. Her jockey, Alex Solis, is a very good jockey, but I don't believe he has ridden at Belmont Park too often.
Streaker is a potential upset filly. She is undefeated in three starts, but this will be her first try in a stakes race. She has a win over this track, and beat Acting Happy in an allowance race on March 27th. Acting Happy went on to flatter Streaker by upsetting the grade II Black-Eyed Susan Stakes three weeks ago.
I would pick Crisp to win, excusing her poor showing in the Kentucky Oaks because she was unable to get to the lead, except that she drew gate thirteen. In my opinion, she has too much to overcome. And her jockey Calvin Borel does not know the track very well.
Finally, Buckleupbuttercup, Seeking the Title, and Tidal Pool are all contenders as well. Buckleupbuttercup could come through with a huge win if the track turns up sloppy, which it might. Seeking the Title didn't get a chance at making her run in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, as she tripped over a fallen Diva Delite and did not finish the race. She could run a huge race, and with Kent Desormeaux in the saddle, who knows what might happen.
As for Tidal Pool, she has been running very well lately, with thirds in the Kentucky Oaks and Black-Eyed Susan, but has yet to win a stakes race. However, she gets a jockey change this time around, with Rajiv Maragh replacing Calvin Borel. She is the 4-1 morning line favorite and could run huge, but will she be caught wide on the turn? We'll see.
Much Rejoicing is the final filly I will mention. She is undefeated in two starts, winning a maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park and an allowance race at Keeneland so far. 10-1 on the morning line, she has Alan Garcia in the saddle and might surprise a few people by hitting the board.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Amen Hallelujah
2 Tanda
3 Tidal Pool
4 Buckleupbuttercup
5 Streaker
6 Crisp
7 Indian Burn
8 Quiet Temper
9 Much Rejoicing
10 Seeking the Title
11 Champagne d'Oro
12 Dances with Ashley
13 Hot Trip
I feel that Amen Hallelujah is ready to run her best race and will win by a length or two, with Tanda rallying for second and Tidal Pool holding third over Buckleupbuttercup and Streaker.
Now I am sure that you are all curious as to J. R.'s picks. After picking Spangled Star to win the Belmont Stakes, he decided to be a little bit more conservative this time around. He has singled Streaker to defeat Indian Burn and Amen Hallelujah. Wow.
Here are all of his picks. . .
1 Streaker
2 Indian Burn
3 Amen Hallelujah
4 Seeking the Title
5 Buckleupbuttercup
6 Tanda
7 Tidal Pool
8 Much Rejoicing
9 Champagne d'Oro
10 Quiet Temper
11 Crisp
12 Dances with Ashley
13 Hot Trip
Once again, it's a handicapping contest, me against him. We're going to go at it all day and see who picks the most winners at Belmont Park. We'll take a look now at the Woody Stephens Stakes.
WOODY STEPHENS STAKES (gr. II) ---- Belmont Park, Race 6, June 5th
7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Named for the great trainer Woody Stephens, who won the Belmont Stakes five times in a row back in the eighties, the Woody Stephens Stakes has drawn only five entries, but every one of them deserves to be here.
But I feel that it comes down to two horse: Eightfiveinafifty and D' Funnybone. Both are proven at this distance, and D' Funnybone destroyed the grade II Futurity Stakes at this distance at this track last year.
Discreetly Mine, who is expected to give them a run for their money, ran second in the Futurity. He has more than proven himself at this track, running second in the grade I Champagne Stakes as well, but I do question his ability to stay with the top two favorites. He just hasn't shown that kind of raw speed.
Thank U Philippe, at 6-1 on the morning line, seems to be a seven furlong specialist and could upset the big two if they falter. And even Remand at 10-1 could earn a piece of it. He is coming off of a third place finish in the nine furlong Dwyer Stakes. Prior to that, he had finished third to Eightfiveinafifty and Hurricane Ike in the Bay Shore Stakes.
Here are my picks for this race. . .
1 D' Funnybone
2 Remand
3 Eightfiveinafifty
4 Discreetly Mine
5 Thank U Philippe
. . . and here are J. R.'s picks.
1 Remand
2 Discreetly Mine
3 Eightyfiveinafifty
4 Thank U Philippe
5 D' Funnybone
I feel that D' Funnybone is the best horse in the race and perhaps more rateable than Eightfiveinafifty. Of course, it is possible that the two of them could hook up early, setting the race up for a closer, but I think D' Funnybone will hang on to win.
However, J. R. doesn't think so. He believes that the two favorites will hook up and dual each other into submission, allowing Remand to sneak in for the victory. It's possible that it could happen, but I just don't think so.
Now I shall briefly discuss the Hollywood Oaks.
HOLLYWOOD OAKS (gr. II) ---- Hollywood Park, Race 8, June 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
The Hollywood Oaks, a grade II race for three year old fillies, is short on entries but not on talent. Headlined by the Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck, the race should be a good one.
Obviously, Blind Luck is the best filly in the race, but can she be upset? She will be giving away four to ten pounds, and there are a couple of fillies here who could slow the pace down enough to hold off her late charge.
The first filly I will mention is Switch. She gets into the race with only 113 pounds, ten less than Blind Luck. She comes into the race off of a closing second in the grade III Railbird Stakes, beaten a half length by Tanda, who is running in the Acorn Stakes today. She has talent and might be able to get a clear lead and hold off Blind Luck.
Then there is Camille C. Carrying 119 pounds, she comes into the race off of a sharp win in the Melair Stakes back in late April. Prior to that, she had finished fourth to City to City, Andina, and In the Slips after setting the pace in the grade II Providencia Stakes. With a bit of luck, she could run well.
Antares World and Vision in Gold complete the field. The former comes off of a nice win in the Golden Poppy Stakes, the latter off of a fifth place finish in the Railbird Stakes.
My picks are these. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 Switch
3 Camille C
4 Antares World
5 Vision in Gold
I feel that Blind Luck is much the best and can overcome anything. Yes, ten pounds is a lot to give away, but I think that she can handle it. I have always liked Switch and she looks to be a clear second here.
J. R. has different thoughts. He thinks that Blind Luck has way too much to overcome and will end up second behind Switch.
"Switch is carrying ten pounds less than Blind Luck, and I think that she can slow the pace down and hold on." he said.
So his picks look like this. . .
1 Switch
2 Blind Luck
3 Camille C
4 Antaras World
5 Vision in Gold.
Very similar to my picks, just reversing the top two. We'll see what happens.
RACE RECAPS
Before I conclude this post and begin my preparations for the Belmont Stakes, I would like to recap last week's races and see how my picks did.
In the Dogwood Stakes, I was fairly confident that Fuzzy Britches would upset Ailalea. I had many reasons for thinking this, one of them being that Ailalea would bounce off of her Kentucky Oaks effort.
Ailalea did not bounce.
In the early stages, Helen Belen went to the front as expected, followed closely by Visavis on her outside and Ailalea in the three path. Fuzzy Britches was sitting about six lengths off the lead.
Though the fractions were very sharp, Calvin Borel moved Ailalea up on the outside and took the lead just past the quarter pole. His filly quickly opened up a two length lead approaching the eighth pole. Fuzzy Britches came running late on the outside, but tired as the wire approached. Tap Tap Tapping, at 31-1, came from the clouds with a very sharp late rally but Ailalea had just enough to hold her off by a length. Fuzzy Britches finished third.
So here are the results. . .
1 Ailalea
2 Tap Tap Tapping
3 Fuzzy Britches
4 Vertical Vision
5 Visavis
6 Helen Belen
7 Age of Humor
8 Bell's Shoes
. . . and here were my picks.
1 Fuzzy Britches
2 Ailalea
3 Age of Humor
4 Visavis
5 Vertical Vision
6 Helen Belen
7 Bell's Shoes
8 Tap Tap Tapping
Not too good, although my top two picks finished in the top three.
In the Marine Stakes at Woodbine, I did better.
The favorite for the mile and a sixteenth event was Exhi, and he was my pick. Hotep was expected to challenge him, and I liked him too.
In the early going, Essence Hit Man led the way, followed by Exhi. Hotep was back in fourth.
With three furlongs to go, Exhi was tired of being second. He blew past Essence Hit Man and took the lead, drawing off to win by four and a half lengths. Hotep rallied for second, with Essence Hit Man third. Those were my three picks.
Third choice Bear's Hard Ten finished last.
However, in the USA Stakes at Lone Star Park, the favorite did not win. In the mile and a sixteenth turf event, Coyote Legend, one of my favorite horses, was the even money choice. Looks Purrrfect was 3-1, Golden Euro 4-1. Of course, Coyote Legend had never raced on turf before, but I felt that he would handle it okay.
In the early going, Coyote Legend looked good. Golden Euro was setting the early pace, turning out fractions of :24 1/5 and :49 1/5. Coyote Legend was sitting second.
They continued like this for much of the race, and when Bobby Walker Jr. asked Coyote Legend for his run, I expected an explosion. Instead, Coyote Legend threw in the towel and faded.
Golden Euro held off Shoot It's War to win by a neck. B'wanagoldmine finished third, followed by Looks Purrrfect, Perfect Lou, Coyote Legend, Nuggets Please and Nate's Mineshaft. Although Coyote Legend finished sixth, he was only beaten four and three quarter lengths.
And then there was the Metropolitan Handicap. Could Quality Road continue his dominance of the older male division with another grade I win?
In the early going, Quality Road hooked up with Le Grand Cru. Together, those two dueled through solid fractions of :22 2/5 and :45 flat. They were tracked by Tizway and Warrior's Reward. Musket Man, the second choice, was as far back as seventh.
With just over a quarter of a mile to go, Warrior's Sword made his bid. With a powerful move, he got to within a length of Quality Road and looked like he would go right ahead and pass him.
But then he turned up empty. Quality Road still led through three quarters of a mile in a blistering 1:08 2/5.
And then Musket Man launched his bid.
Once again, the threat of an upset arose. Musket Man was powering home on the outside and looked like he would go right ahead and win.
But Quality Road dug in and refused to let him pass.
Down to the finish they came and Quality Road won by a length and a half. Musket Man was a very game second, with Tizway finishing third. The final time: 1:33 flat. Equaling the second fastest Met Mile of all time. Not bad.
And finally, in the grade I Gamely Stakes at Hollywood Park, Tuscan Evening continued her dominance of the turf mares division by holding off 2008 Eclipse champion Forever Together by a half length to secure her first grade I win.
After tracking the early pace set by Cat by the Tale, Tuscan Evening took over the lead in the stretch. But Forever Together was closing fast and Tuscan Evening needed every last bit of stamina to hold her off. Cat by the Tale finished third, followed by Well Monied, General Concensus, Gotta Have Her and Princess Haya.
And so that concludes this post. Now I am off to prepare for the Belmont Stakes.
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
WOODFORD RESERVE MANHATTAN HANDICAP UPDATE ---- 10 minutes to post
We're just twelve minutes away from the Grade I Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap. Gio Ponti, last year's winner, is the 6-5 favorite. Court Vision and Just as Well are 5-1. Take the Points is 7-1.
Who will win? I have picked Gio Ponti to win. Despite the fact that he may be a bit tired from the trip to Dubai, I think he is the best horse in the race.
I'll be back soon. . .
-Keelerman
Who will win? I have picked Gio Ponti to win. Despite the fact that he may be a bit tired from the trip to Dubai, I think he is the best horse in the race.
I'll be back soon. . .
-Keelerman
CHAMPAGNE D'ORO WON!!!
In a shocking upset, Champagne d'Oro held off favored Amen Hallelujah and Tanda to win the grade I Acorn Stakes by a half length.
Ridden well by Martin Garcia, Champagne d'Oro was rushed out of the gate to take the early lead and got a perfect ground saving trip.
Amen Hallelujah, who was forced to go four wide into the stretch, closed well but could not find enough late. Tanda, who circled the field seven wide, finished third.
More updates soon. . .
-Keelerman
Ridden well by Martin Garcia, Champagne d'Oro was rushed out of the gate to take the early lead and got a perfect ground saving trip.
Amen Hallelujah, who was forced to go four wide into the stretch, closed well but could not find enough late. Tanda, who circled the field seven wide, finished third.
More updates soon. . .
-Keelerman
ACORN UPDATE ---- 5 minutes to post
It's now five minutes to post for the Acorn --- I've picked Amen Hallelujah to win. I also like Streaker, Tanda, and Buckleupbuttercup. I would have liked the latter better if the track had turned up sloppy, but so far it hasn't rained.
Amen Hallelujah is still the 5-2 favorite. Tanda is still 5-1, although Much Rejoicing has dropped to 6-1. I'm sort of surprised that she has been bet down so low, but I guess I can see why people like her.
It is now post time! Much Rejoicing is now 5-1. Streaker has risen to 10-1.
They're in the gate. . .
-Keelerman
Amen Hallelujah is still the 5-2 favorite. Tanda is still 5-1, although Much Rejoicing has dropped to 6-1. I'm sort of surprised that she has been bet down so low, but I guess I can see why people like her.
It is now post time! Much Rejoicing is now 5-1. Streaker has risen to 10-1.
They're in the gate. . .
-Keelerman
ACORN STAKES UPDATE ---- 14 minutes to post
It is currently fourteen minutes until the Acorn Stakes. With the scratch of Hot Trip, the field has been reduced to twelve. As of right now, Amen Hallelujah is the favorite at 5-2. Tanda is 5-1, with Much Rejoicing at 7-1. Seeking the Title, Streaker, Buckleupbuttercup, Tidal Pool, and Crisp are all 9-1. That is how solid this field is.
Indian Burn is the longshot at 33-1.
It is now ten minutes to post time. This is so exciting! What a great day of racing!
So far, I am 3-for-3 on the stakes races. I had D' Funnybone in the Woody Stephens, which he won impressively, Proviso in the Just a Game, and Bribon in the True North. Of course, they were the three favorites, so I'm sure lots of people picked them to win, but it's still fun!
I'll be back shortly with more details. And also, I will post my will be my next-to-last "Triple Crown Countdown" of 2010. I will use the final one to recap the Belmont Stakes, and then I will officially switch over to "Breeders' Cup Countdown". It's going to be great!
-Keelerman
Indian Burn is the longshot at 33-1.
It is now ten minutes to post time. This is so exciting! What a great day of racing!
So far, I am 3-for-3 on the stakes races. I had D' Funnybone in the Woody Stephens, which he won impressively, Proviso in the Just a Game, and Bribon in the True North. Of course, they were the three favorites, so I'm sure lots of people picked them to win, but it's still fun!
I'll be back shortly with more details. And also, I will post my will be my next-to-last "Triple Crown Countdown" of 2010. I will use the final one to recap the Belmont Stakes, and then I will officially switch over to "Breeders' Cup Countdown". It's going to be great!
-Keelerman
Friday, June 04, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- THE BELMONT STAKES
Tomorrow is the day of the Belmont Stakes. It has drawn—without a doubt—the most solid field I can remember. But sadly, it is the final leg of the Triple Crown. No more classics until next year. . .
But on the other hand, there is just about no way that this Triple Crown can end on a bad note, as the field is terrific and the horses should put on good show. And also, once the Triple Crown is over, we can start thinking about the Breeders' Cup, the current crop of two year olds, and an idea that I came up with a few months ago that I think would be fun. . .
But we won't discuss those right now. The Belmont Stakes is the most important race for the moment so let's take a look at who's running.
1. Dave in Dixie
Birthdate - March
Sire - Dixie Union (By Dixieland Band)
Dam - Risk (By Wavering Monarch)
Owner - Ike & Dawn Thrash
Trainer - John Sadler
Jockey - Calvin Borel
Last Race --- Illinois Derby, finished 5th
Pros --- He has shown that he can rally strongly from far back, and he has been running against some solid company.
Cons --- His worst race came on dirt, he has shown his best for only on synthetics, he is a bit inconsistent, he has not had a workout at Belmont, and his jockey doesn't know the track very well.
Pedigree --- It should take him a mile and a half.
2. Spangled Star
Birthdate - April
Sire - Distorted Humor (By Forty Niner)
Dam - Spangled (By Kris S)
Owner - Lawrence P Roman & Jeff Levine
Trainer - Richard Dutrow
Jockey - Garrett Gomez
Last Race --- Withers Stakes, finished 3rd
Pros --- He has been improving with every start and has shown a little bit of early speed. With a bit of luck, he could find himself in the perfect stalking position.
Cons --- He has not had a workout at Belmont, and he would have to show some great improvement to contend here. He has never raced beyond a mile and a sixteenth.
Pedigree --- I'm not sure what to think. His sire is questionable for siring a distance horse, but Spangled Star's pedigree is loaded with stamina elsewhere. I think that he will get the distance.
3. Uptowncharlybrown
Birthdate - February
Sire - Limehouse (By Grand Slam)
Dam - La Iluminada (By Langfuhr)
Owner - Fantasy Lane Stables
Trainer - Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey - Rajiv Maragh
Last Race --- Lexington Stakes, finished 3rd
Pros --- He has shown to be versatile, racing close to the pace and far off of it. He has good form on both dirt and synthetics, and his trainer has won the Belmont Stakes before. He has recorded four workouts over this track and his been here since early May.
Cons --- Has been just a bit inconsistent and I do wonder if he can go a mile and a half.
Pedigree --- Despite the fact that I am worried about his ability to get a mile and a half, his pedigree says that he should be able to do it.
4. Make Music for Me
Birthdate - March 4th
Sire - Bernstein (By Storm Cat)
Dam - Miss Cheers (By Carson City)
Owner - Ellen and Peter O Johnson
Trainer - Alexis Barba
Jockey - Joel Rosario
Last Race - Kentucky Derby, finished 4th
Pros - He ran a tremendous race in the Kentucky Derby, coming from last to finish fourth. He has had two workouts at Belmont and could be sitting on a huge race. He has shown the ability to come from just off the lead and from way back.
Cons - His jockey has never ridden at Belmont before, and he may not be able to go a mile and a half.
Pedigree --- It should be able to carry him a mile and a half, but until he does it I can't be sure.
5. Fly Down
Birthdate - April
Sire - Minehshaft (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Queen Randi (By Fly So Free)
Owner - Richard Pell
Trainer - Nick Zito
Jockey - John Velazquez
Last Race - Dwyer Stakes, finished 1st
Pros - He is the only runner in the race to have won over this track, he was very impressive in his last race, and his Louisiana Derby run was not as bad as it looked. His trainer has won the Belmont twice already.
Cons - His pedigree is perhaps just a little shy of stamina, and the wind at Belmont on Dwyer day did cause a bias in his favor.
Pedigree --- It should be able to carry him a mile and a half, but until he does it I can't be sure.
6. Ice Box
Birthdate - March 29th
Sire - Pulpit (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Spice Island (By Tabasco Cat)
Owner - Robert V. LaPenta
Trainer - Nick Zito
Jockey - Jose Lezcano
Last Race --- Kentucky Derby, finished 2nd
Pros --- He has been running extremely well as of late, and might have won the Kentucky Derby if he had gotten a slightly better trip. His pedigree should take him a mile and a half and beyond. His trainer has won the Belmont Stakes twice already. He has drawn a terrific post position.
Cons --- He had the perfect pace scenario in the Derby and may not get it here. His style of coming from way back doesn't suit the Belmont Stakes, but he has shown the ability to sit just off the lead.
Pedigree --- It will get him a mile and a half.
7. Drosselmeyer
Birthdate - April
Sire - Distorted Humor (By Forty Niner)
Dam - Golden Ballet (By Moscow Ballet)
Owner - WinStar Farm
Trainer - William Mott
Jockey - Mike Smith
Last Race --- Dwyer Stakes, finished 2nd
Pros --- He appears to have great stamina and can just keep on grinding. If he has the lead turning for home, it may be impossible to catch him. He has yet to win a stakes race, but he just keeps finishing well and this could be his big day.
Cons --- He has shown very little turn of foot and just hasn't been able to finish off his run. He reminds me to some extent of Dublin. Also, he has had some frog issues over the past couple of days which could hurt his chances.
Pedigree --- His pedigree doesn't scream a mile and a half, but the way he runs says that he should get the distance.
8. Game On Dude
Birthdate - April
Sire - Awesome Again (By Deputy Minister)
Dam - Wordly Pleasure (By Devil His Due)
Owner - Bernard Schiappa Lanni Family Trust
Trainer - Bob Baffert
Jockey - Martin Garcia
Last Race --- Lone Star Derby, finished 1st
Pros --- He finally broke through with an impressive win in his last race, and he is one of the few horses in this race who have shown the ability to sit near a fast pace.
Cons --- His rider has never ridden at Belmont Park before, he has been training out at Santa Anita, and I question his ability to get the distance.
Pedigree --- I'm not sure what to think. It might carry him the distance and it might not.
9. Stately Victor
Birthdate - May 1st
Sire - Ghostzapper (By Awesome Again)
Dam - Collect the Cash (By Dynaformer)
Owner - Thomas Conway & Jack Conway
Trainer - Michael Maker
Jockey - Alan Garcia
Last Race - Kentucky Derby, finished 8th
Pros --- He ran a sneaky good race in the Kentucky Derby and has had five weeks rest. He has been training very well and looks ready to run a huge race. His jockey won the 2008 Belmont Stakes.
Cons --- He is really unproven beyond a mile and an eighth and has been a bit inconsistent.
Pedigree --- His pedigree screams a mile and a half, but I'm just not sure if he can actually get it.
10. Stay Put
Birthdate - March
Sire - Broken Vow (By Unbridled)
Dam - O. K. Mom (By Dixieland Blue)
Owner - Richard Klein, Bertram Klein, and W Klein
Trainer - Steve Margolis
Jockey - J. Theriot II
Last Race - Allowance Optional Claiming race, finished 1st
Pros --- He ran two very solid races in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby earlier this year, and with any pace at all he should come flying. He looks ready to run a huge race and has been screaming for distance.
Cons --- His speed figures have not been very high and his jockey is not familiar with this track. He may just not be as good as some of the other horses in the race.
Pedigree --- His pedigree says he can get the distance and so does the way he runs.
11. First Dude
Birthdate - March
Sire - Stephen Got Even (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Run Sarah Run (By Smart Strike)
Owner - Donald R Dizney
Trainer - Dale Romans
Jockey - Ramon Dominguez
Last Race - Preakness Stakes, finished 2nd
Pros - His jockey knows Belmont Park really well, he ran a tremendously impressive race in the Preakness, and he is one of the few horses here with sharp early speed.
Cons - He has drawn a poor post position, and he still only has a maiden win from seven starts. I do question his ability to go a mile and a half.
Pedigree - It says mile and a half all over the place, but I'm just not sure if he can get the distance.
12. Interactif
Birthdate - February
Sire - Broken Vow (By Unbridled)
Dam - Broad Pennant (By Broad Brush)
Owner - Wertheimer EtFrere
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Javierr Castellano
Last Race - Blue Grass Stakes, finished 4th
Pros - He has always run consistently, he should be fresh, and he has shown a good late kick at times. But when he doesn't come late, it's typically because he is near the lead chasing good fractions. Either style could end up working here.
Cons - He has drawn a terrible post position, he seems to be best on turf and synthetics, his worse race came on dirt, his speed figures haven't been very high, and he may just not be good enough.
Pedigree - He will get a mile and a half. I think.
So there are my thoughts on each horse. I have been going back and forth for the past few days now, trying to decide who my picks are. I'm still not really sure who is going to win, but I've done my best and I can do no more than that.
But before I get into my picks, I'm going to run through my now traditional random picks and speed figures picks and see what I come up with there.
RANDOM PICKS
1 Stately Victor
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 First Dude
4 Make Music for Me
5 Interactif
6 Drosselmeyer
7 Stay Put
8 Dave in Dixie
9 Fly Down
10 Ice Box
11 Star Spangled
12 Game On Dude
Hmm. . . once again, my Random Picks seems to want to hit a monster superfecta. Very daring of it to leave Fly Down and Ice Box out of the top four.
Now it's time for my "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" picks. You can guess how these picks are deduced by the name. . .
HIGHEST BEYER SPEED FIGURE IN LAST RACE PICKS
1 First Dude
2 Ice Box
3 Fly Down
4 Make Music for Me
5 Game On Dude
6 Uptowncharlybrown (DH)
6 Stately Victor (DH)
8 Stay Put
9 Drosselmeyer
10 Spangled Star
11 Interactif
12 Dave in Dixie
Very interesting. The four likely favorites in the top four spots. It's highly possible that the race could turn out this way. Although I doubt that there will be a dead-heat, I did see one the other day at Lone Star Park. . .
Now here are my "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks, where I average out the runners speed figures and the horse with the highest average tops the list, and the horse with the lowest average finishing last.
AVERAGE BEYER SPEED FIGURE PICKS
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Dave in Dixie
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Game On Dude
7 Interactif
8 Stay Put
9 Make Music for Me
10 Stately Victor
11 Ice Box
12 Spangled Star
I find it rather fascinating that Uptowncharlybrown leads the list, with Dave in Dixie second. Of course, Ice Box is not going to run eleventh, but this list could be right in some cases.
And now the real analyzing begins.
Before I post my picks, let me mention a couple of things that have influenced my handicapping.
#1 is the fact that horses who run in the Derby and skip the Preakness typically run well in the Belmont Stakes. In 2003, Empire Maker ran second in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and won the Belmont. In 2004, Birdstone ran seventh in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and won the Belmont. In 2005, Adromeda's Hero ran eighth in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and ran second in the Belmont. In 2006, Jazil ran fourth in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and won the Belmont. In 2007, Tiago ran seventh in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and finished third in the Belmont. Also in 2007, Rags to Riches won the Kentucky Oaks, skipped the Preakness and won the Belmont. In 2008, Denis of Cork ran third in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and finished second in the Belmont. In 2009, Summer Bird ran sixth in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and won the Belmont.
So this means that Make Music for Me, Ice Box, or Stately Victor will hit the board in the Belmont Stakes. Maybe they will fill out the trifecta!
Another interesting fact is that longshots often do well in the Belmont. Ahem. . .
In 2002, Sarava won the Belmont Stakes at odds of 70-1. Medaglia d'Oro finished second at odds of 16-1.
In 2004, Birdstone won the Belmont Stakes at odds of 36-1 Royal Assault finished third at 28-1.
In 2005, Adromeda's Hero ran second in the Belmont at odds of 12-1. Nolan's Cat ran third at 20-1.
In 2008, Da' Tara won the Belmont Stakes at odds of 38-1. In addition, Anak Nakal at 34-1 dead-heated with Ready's Echo at 29-1 for third.
And finally, in 2009, Summer Bird won the Belmont Stakes at odds of 11-1.
Of course, in 2002, 2004, and 2008, the high odds were due to some extent to the fact that a horse was going for the Triple Crown that year. In 2005 and 2009 there were heavy favorites drawing all of the money.
So with all that said, it's time to make my picks.
After I mention a couple of things about the possible early pace.
When you first glance at the entries, you don't see a lot of speed. Yet, in my opinion, I think that the opening half mile could go in slightly under :48 seconds flat. Perhaps :47 4/5, or :47 3/5. The reason I think this is the fact that First Dude, Game On Dude, Spangled Star, Interactif, Drosselmeyer, Make Music for Me, and Uptowncharlybrown have all shown ability to race close to the lead. Come to think of it, even Ice Box has been up close early. But all it would take is First Dude, Game On Dude, and Spangled Star battling for the lead to end up with a hot pace.
So I'm going to handicap anticipating a slightly faster pace than most people will.
Here are my Official Picks. . .
OFFICIAL PICKS
1 Ice Box
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Stately Victor
7 Stay Put
8 Drosselmeyer
9 Interactif
10 Game On Dude
11 Dave in Dixie
12 Spangled Star
Typically, the Kentucky Derby is the hardest race to handicap out of the three Triple Crown races, but this year I must admit the Belmont has topped it.
To begin the nightmare, I couldn't toss anyone. I looked at every runner in the race and said to myself, "Anyone can win!" But I finally decided to go with Ice Box. He looks like the best horse here.
I know I am taking a shot with Uptowncharlybrown, but I have loved this colt since the Pasco Stakes and would love to see him win. His pedigree doesn't say a mile and a half anywhere, but I just have this feeling that he could surprise a lot of people by running well.
As for Make Music for Me, he really impressed me in the Kentucky Derby, rallying from last to finish second. He has been training well and I think that he can lay closer to the pace and lead at the top of the stretch.
I can see Fly Down winning, but I just don't think so. I don't think that the Dwyer was quite as good as it looked. But then again, it was a win at Belmont and that always helps.
I'm leaving First Dude out of the top four at my own risk. I think that the Preakness took too much out of him and that he will fade in the final eighth of a mile.
Stately Victor looks like he could run all day, but I don't know if he is good enough on dirt. Spangled Star has a huge shot, but I'm can't include everyone. Stay Put needs a solid pace to chase, as does Dave in Dixie. Drosselmeyer was one of my top picks until his frog issues arose, and now I'm afraid that he won't run his best race. I believe that Interactif has too much to overcome from gate twelve, and that Game On Dude just plain isn't good enough.
And now here are my "Gut Feelings" picks, where I go with what my gut tells me will happen.
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Fly Down
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Stately Victor
6 First Dude
7 Spangled Star
8 Dave in Dixie
9 Game On Dude
10 Interactif
11 Drosselmeyer
12 Stay Put
My gut feeling is that Uptowncharlybrown will win by about a length and a half. I'm not sure why. I just have this feeling. I also have a feeling that this race will not set up well for Ice Box and he will do what Mine That Bird did last year. Come too early on the turns of doom at Belmont Park.
Now, to conclude this post, I am going to post one last pick. Here's the story:
I have a buddy. On this blog, he will be known as J. R. He enjoys picking longshots to win and as I was handicapping this race, he came forth with his superfecta.
"Ice Box to win?" he said. "I don't think so. This race won't set up for him. He'll end up fourth or something."
"Well," I said. "Who do you think will win?"
"Spangled Star without a doubt."
I laughed. He couldn't possibly be serious.
"I'm serious."
I stopped laughing.
He pulled a battered sheet of paper out of his pocket, covered with possible fractions, past perfomances, and his own notes. "Here's my superfecta --- Spangled Star, Uptowncharlybrown, Make Music for Me, and Ice Box."
I was shocked, but then again, that's his style of handicapping. Find the longshot who can hit the board and build a superfecta around him. And I guess I can see why he likes Spangled Star, because even I like him a little bit.
So here are J. R's picks. . .
J. R.'s PICKS
1 Spangled Star
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Game On Dude
6 Fly Down
7 Dave in Dixie
8 Stately Victor
9 Stay Put
10 First Dude
11 Interactif
12 Drosselmeyer
So it's a contest now --- will I outpick J. R., or will J. R. outpick me? We'll find out tomorrow.
And I guess that's it for now. I'll be back tomorrow with thoughts on the undercard races, as well as a recap of what has happened over the last week. And I'll even try and get J. R. to name a choice for the Acorn. . .
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
But on the other hand, there is just about no way that this Triple Crown can end on a bad note, as the field is terrific and the horses should put on good show. And also, once the Triple Crown is over, we can start thinking about the Breeders' Cup, the current crop of two year olds, and an idea that I came up with a few months ago that I think would be fun. . .
But we won't discuss those right now. The Belmont Stakes is the most important race for the moment so let's take a look at who's running.
1. Dave in Dixie
Birthdate - March
Sire - Dixie Union (By Dixieland Band)
Dam - Risk (By Wavering Monarch)
Owner - Ike & Dawn Thrash
Trainer - John Sadler
Jockey - Calvin Borel
Last Race --- Illinois Derby, finished 5th
Pros --- He has shown that he can rally strongly from far back, and he has been running against some solid company.
Cons --- His worst race came on dirt, he has shown his best for only on synthetics, he is a bit inconsistent, he has not had a workout at Belmont, and his jockey doesn't know the track very well.
Pedigree --- It should take him a mile and a half.
2. Spangled Star
Birthdate - April
Sire - Distorted Humor (By Forty Niner)
Dam - Spangled (By Kris S)
Owner - Lawrence P Roman & Jeff Levine
Trainer - Richard Dutrow
Jockey - Garrett Gomez
Last Race --- Withers Stakes, finished 3rd
Pros --- He has been improving with every start and has shown a little bit of early speed. With a bit of luck, he could find himself in the perfect stalking position.
Cons --- He has not had a workout at Belmont, and he would have to show some great improvement to contend here. He has never raced beyond a mile and a sixteenth.
Pedigree --- I'm not sure what to think. His sire is questionable for siring a distance horse, but Spangled Star's pedigree is loaded with stamina elsewhere. I think that he will get the distance.
3. Uptowncharlybrown
Birthdate - February
Sire - Limehouse (By Grand Slam)
Dam - La Iluminada (By Langfuhr)
Owner - Fantasy Lane Stables
Trainer - Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey - Rajiv Maragh
Last Race --- Lexington Stakes, finished 3rd
Pros --- He has shown to be versatile, racing close to the pace and far off of it. He has good form on both dirt and synthetics, and his trainer has won the Belmont Stakes before. He has recorded four workouts over this track and his been here since early May.
Cons --- Has been just a bit inconsistent and I do wonder if he can go a mile and a half.
Pedigree --- Despite the fact that I am worried about his ability to get a mile and a half, his pedigree says that he should be able to do it.
4. Make Music for Me
Birthdate - March 4th
Sire - Bernstein (By Storm Cat)
Dam - Miss Cheers (By Carson City)
Owner - Ellen and Peter O Johnson
Trainer - Alexis Barba
Jockey - Joel Rosario
Last Race - Kentucky Derby, finished 4th
Pros - He ran a tremendous race in the Kentucky Derby, coming from last to finish fourth. He has had two workouts at Belmont and could be sitting on a huge race. He has shown the ability to come from just off the lead and from way back.
Cons - His jockey has never ridden at Belmont before, and he may not be able to go a mile and a half.
Pedigree --- It should be able to carry him a mile and a half, but until he does it I can't be sure.
5. Fly Down
Birthdate - April
Sire - Minehshaft (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Queen Randi (By Fly So Free)
Owner - Richard Pell
Trainer - Nick Zito
Jockey - John Velazquez
Last Race - Dwyer Stakes, finished 1st
Pros - He is the only runner in the race to have won over this track, he was very impressive in his last race, and his Louisiana Derby run was not as bad as it looked. His trainer has won the Belmont twice already.
Cons - His pedigree is perhaps just a little shy of stamina, and the wind at Belmont on Dwyer day did cause a bias in his favor.
Pedigree --- It should be able to carry him a mile and a half, but until he does it I can't be sure.
6. Ice Box
Birthdate - March 29th
Sire - Pulpit (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Spice Island (By Tabasco Cat)
Owner - Robert V. LaPenta
Trainer - Nick Zito
Jockey - Jose Lezcano
Last Race --- Kentucky Derby, finished 2nd
Pros --- He has been running extremely well as of late, and might have won the Kentucky Derby if he had gotten a slightly better trip. His pedigree should take him a mile and a half and beyond. His trainer has won the Belmont Stakes twice already. He has drawn a terrific post position.
Cons --- He had the perfect pace scenario in the Derby and may not get it here. His style of coming from way back doesn't suit the Belmont Stakes, but he has shown the ability to sit just off the lead.
Pedigree --- It will get him a mile and a half.
7. Drosselmeyer
Birthdate - April
Sire - Distorted Humor (By Forty Niner)
Dam - Golden Ballet (By Moscow Ballet)
Owner - WinStar Farm
Trainer - William Mott
Jockey - Mike Smith
Last Race --- Dwyer Stakes, finished 2nd
Pros --- He appears to have great stamina and can just keep on grinding. If he has the lead turning for home, it may be impossible to catch him. He has yet to win a stakes race, but he just keeps finishing well and this could be his big day.
Cons --- He has shown very little turn of foot and just hasn't been able to finish off his run. He reminds me to some extent of Dublin. Also, he has had some frog issues over the past couple of days which could hurt his chances.
Pedigree --- His pedigree doesn't scream a mile and a half, but the way he runs says that he should get the distance.
8. Game On Dude
Birthdate - April
Sire - Awesome Again (By Deputy Minister)
Dam - Wordly Pleasure (By Devil His Due)
Owner - Bernard Schiappa Lanni Family Trust
Trainer - Bob Baffert
Jockey - Martin Garcia
Last Race --- Lone Star Derby, finished 1st
Pros --- He finally broke through with an impressive win in his last race, and he is one of the few horses in this race who have shown the ability to sit near a fast pace.
Cons --- His rider has never ridden at Belmont Park before, he has been training out at Santa Anita, and I question his ability to get the distance.
Pedigree --- I'm not sure what to think. It might carry him the distance and it might not.
9. Stately Victor
Birthdate - May 1st
Sire - Ghostzapper (By Awesome Again)
Dam - Collect the Cash (By Dynaformer)
Owner - Thomas Conway & Jack Conway
Trainer - Michael Maker
Jockey - Alan Garcia
Last Race - Kentucky Derby, finished 8th
Pros --- He ran a sneaky good race in the Kentucky Derby and has had five weeks rest. He has been training very well and looks ready to run a huge race. His jockey won the 2008 Belmont Stakes.
Cons --- He is really unproven beyond a mile and an eighth and has been a bit inconsistent.
Pedigree --- His pedigree screams a mile and a half, but I'm just not sure if he can actually get it.
10. Stay Put
Birthdate - March
Sire - Broken Vow (By Unbridled)
Dam - O. K. Mom (By Dixieland Blue)
Owner - Richard Klein, Bertram Klein, and W Klein
Trainer - Steve Margolis
Jockey - J. Theriot II
Last Race - Allowance Optional Claiming race, finished 1st
Pros --- He ran two very solid races in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby earlier this year, and with any pace at all he should come flying. He looks ready to run a huge race and has been screaming for distance.
Cons --- His speed figures have not been very high and his jockey is not familiar with this track. He may just not be as good as some of the other horses in the race.
Pedigree --- His pedigree says he can get the distance and so does the way he runs.
11. First Dude
Birthdate - March
Sire - Stephen Got Even (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Run Sarah Run (By Smart Strike)
Owner - Donald R Dizney
Trainer - Dale Romans
Jockey - Ramon Dominguez
Last Race - Preakness Stakes, finished 2nd
Pros - His jockey knows Belmont Park really well, he ran a tremendously impressive race in the Preakness, and he is one of the few horses here with sharp early speed.
Cons - He has drawn a poor post position, and he still only has a maiden win from seven starts. I do question his ability to go a mile and a half.
Pedigree - It says mile and a half all over the place, but I'm just not sure if he can get the distance.
12. Interactif
Birthdate - February
Sire - Broken Vow (By Unbridled)
Dam - Broad Pennant (By Broad Brush)
Owner - Wertheimer EtFrere
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Javierr Castellano
Last Race - Blue Grass Stakes, finished 4th
Pros - He has always run consistently, he should be fresh, and he has shown a good late kick at times. But when he doesn't come late, it's typically because he is near the lead chasing good fractions. Either style could end up working here.
Cons - He has drawn a terrible post position, he seems to be best on turf and synthetics, his worse race came on dirt, his speed figures haven't been very high, and he may just not be good enough.
Pedigree - He will get a mile and a half. I think.
So there are my thoughts on each horse. I have been going back and forth for the past few days now, trying to decide who my picks are. I'm still not really sure who is going to win, but I've done my best and I can do no more than that.
But before I get into my picks, I'm going to run through my now traditional random picks and speed figures picks and see what I come up with there.
RANDOM PICKS
1 Stately Victor
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 First Dude
4 Make Music for Me
5 Interactif
6 Drosselmeyer
7 Stay Put
8 Dave in Dixie
9 Fly Down
10 Ice Box
11 Star Spangled
12 Game On Dude
Hmm. . . once again, my Random Picks seems to want to hit a monster superfecta. Very daring of it to leave Fly Down and Ice Box out of the top four.
Now it's time for my "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" picks. You can guess how these picks are deduced by the name. . .
HIGHEST BEYER SPEED FIGURE IN LAST RACE PICKS
1 First Dude
2 Ice Box
3 Fly Down
4 Make Music for Me
5 Game On Dude
6 Uptowncharlybrown (DH)
6 Stately Victor (DH)
8 Stay Put
9 Drosselmeyer
10 Spangled Star
11 Interactif
12 Dave in Dixie
Very interesting. The four likely favorites in the top four spots. It's highly possible that the race could turn out this way. Although I doubt that there will be a dead-heat, I did see one the other day at Lone Star Park. . .
Now here are my "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks, where I average out the runners speed figures and the horse with the highest average tops the list, and the horse with the lowest average finishing last.
AVERAGE BEYER SPEED FIGURE PICKS
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Dave in Dixie
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Game On Dude
7 Interactif
8 Stay Put
9 Make Music for Me
10 Stately Victor
11 Ice Box
12 Spangled Star
I find it rather fascinating that Uptowncharlybrown leads the list, with Dave in Dixie second. Of course, Ice Box is not going to run eleventh, but this list could be right in some cases.
And now the real analyzing begins.
Before I post my picks, let me mention a couple of things that have influenced my handicapping.
#1 is the fact that horses who run in the Derby and skip the Preakness typically run well in the Belmont Stakes. In 2003, Empire Maker ran second in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and won the Belmont. In 2004, Birdstone ran seventh in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and won the Belmont. In 2005, Adromeda's Hero ran eighth in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and ran second in the Belmont. In 2006, Jazil ran fourth in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and won the Belmont. In 2007, Tiago ran seventh in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and finished third in the Belmont. Also in 2007, Rags to Riches won the Kentucky Oaks, skipped the Preakness and won the Belmont. In 2008, Denis of Cork ran third in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and finished second in the Belmont. In 2009, Summer Bird ran sixth in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and won the Belmont.
So this means that Make Music for Me, Ice Box, or Stately Victor will hit the board in the Belmont Stakes. Maybe they will fill out the trifecta!
Another interesting fact is that longshots often do well in the Belmont. Ahem. . .
In 2002, Sarava won the Belmont Stakes at odds of 70-1. Medaglia d'Oro finished second at odds of 16-1.
In 2004, Birdstone won the Belmont Stakes at odds of 36-1 Royal Assault finished third at 28-1.
In 2005, Adromeda's Hero ran second in the Belmont at odds of 12-1. Nolan's Cat ran third at 20-1.
In 2008, Da' Tara won the Belmont Stakes at odds of 38-1. In addition, Anak Nakal at 34-1 dead-heated with Ready's Echo at 29-1 for third.
And finally, in 2009, Summer Bird won the Belmont Stakes at odds of 11-1.
Of course, in 2002, 2004, and 2008, the high odds were due to some extent to the fact that a horse was going for the Triple Crown that year. In 2005 and 2009 there were heavy favorites drawing all of the money.
So with all that said, it's time to make my picks.
After I mention a couple of things about the possible early pace.
When you first glance at the entries, you don't see a lot of speed. Yet, in my opinion, I think that the opening half mile could go in slightly under :48 seconds flat. Perhaps :47 4/5, or :47 3/5. The reason I think this is the fact that First Dude, Game On Dude, Spangled Star, Interactif, Drosselmeyer, Make Music for Me, and Uptowncharlybrown have all shown ability to race close to the lead. Come to think of it, even Ice Box has been up close early. But all it would take is First Dude, Game On Dude, and Spangled Star battling for the lead to end up with a hot pace.
So I'm going to handicap anticipating a slightly faster pace than most people will.
Here are my Official Picks. . .
OFFICIAL PICKS
1 Ice Box
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Stately Victor
7 Stay Put
8 Drosselmeyer
9 Interactif
10 Game On Dude
11 Dave in Dixie
12 Spangled Star
Typically, the Kentucky Derby is the hardest race to handicap out of the three Triple Crown races, but this year I must admit the Belmont has topped it.
To begin the nightmare, I couldn't toss anyone. I looked at every runner in the race and said to myself, "Anyone can win!" But I finally decided to go with Ice Box. He looks like the best horse here.
I know I am taking a shot with Uptowncharlybrown, but I have loved this colt since the Pasco Stakes and would love to see him win. His pedigree doesn't say a mile and a half anywhere, but I just have this feeling that he could surprise a lot of people by running well.
As for Make Music for Me, he really impressed me in the Kentucky Derby, rallying from last to finish second. He has been training well and I think that he can lay closer to the pace and lead at the top of the stretch.
I can see Fly Down winning, but I just don't think so. I don't think that the Dwyer was quite as good as it looked. But then again, it was a win at Belmont and that always helps.
I'm leaving First Dude out of the top four at my own risk. I think that the Preakness took too much out of him and that he will fade in the final eighth of a mile.
Stately Victor looks like he could run all day, but I don't know if he is good enough on dirt. Spangled Star has a huge shot, but I'm can't include everyone. Stay Put needs a solid pace to chase, as does Dave in Dixie. Drosselmeyer was one of my top picks until his frog issues arose, and now I'm afraid that he won't run his best race. I believe that Interactif has too much to overcome from gate twelve, and that Game On Dude just plain isn't good enough.
And now here are my "Gut Feelings" picks, where I go with what my gut tells me will happen.
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Fly Down
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Stately Victor
6 First Dude
7 Spangled Star
8 Dave in Dixie
9 Game On Dude
10 Interactif
11 Drosselmeyer
12 Stay Put
My gut feeling is that Uptowncharlybrown will win by about a length and a half. I'm not sure why. I just have this feeling. I also have a feeling that this race will not set up well for Ice Box and he will do what Mine That Bird did last year. Come too early on the turns of doom at Belmont Park.
Now, to conclude this post, I am going to post one last pick. Here's the story:
I have a buddy. On this blog, he will be known as J. R. He enjoys picking longshots to win and as I was handicapping this race, he came forth with his superfecta.
"Ice Box to win?" he said. "I don't think so. This race won't set up for him. He'll end up fourth or something."
"Well," I said. "Who do you think will win?"
"Spangled Star without a doubt."
I laughed. He couldn't possibly be serious.
"I'm serious."
I stopped laughing.
He pulled a battered sheet of paper out of his pocket, covered with possible fractions, past perfomances, and his own notes. "Here's my superfecta --- Spangled Star, Uptowncharlybrown, Make Music for Me, and Ice Box."
I was shocked, but then again, that's his style of handicapping. Find the longshot who can hit the board and build a superfecta around him. And I guess I can see why he likes Spangled Star, because even I like him a little bit.
So here are J. R's picks. . .
J. R.'s PICKS
1 Spangled Star
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Game On Dude
6 Fly Down
7 Dave in Dixie
8 Stately Victor
9 Stay Put
10 First Dude
11 Interactif
12 Drosselmeyer
So it's a contest now --- will I outpick J. R., or will J. R. outpick me? We'll find out tomorrow.
And I guess that's it for now. I'll be back tomorrow with thoughts on the undercard races, as well as a recap of what has happened over the last week. And I'll even try and get J. R. to name a choice for the Acorn. . .
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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