Sunday, June 03, 2012

BELMONT STAKES COUNTDOWN -- June 3rd, 2012

It was a busy morning for Belmont Stakes contenders, as a total of seven prospective starters for the mile-and-a-half classic turned in workouts, including five at Belmont Park.

The large amount of activity was due in part to rainstorms which swept through the Belmont Park area yesterday morning, dumping roughly an inch and a half of rain on to the main track. This caused the postponement of numerous workouts, which were moved from yesterday to today in order to catch a better track.

Saturday, June 02, 2012

CAN I'LL HAVE ANOTHER WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN?

Can I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown?

This is the question that all fans of horse racing are asking themselves, and to be honest, no one knows the answer. You would think that a simple yes or no question would be easy enough to resolve, but in horse racing, that is not the case.

It's a subjective question. It doesn't have a clear-cut answer, like "Do dogs have four legs?" No, a simple yes or no does not suffice to answer this complicated question.

Sort of.

Let me offer a disclaimer -- yes, I'll Have Another can win the Triple Crown. There is nothing stopping him if he is good enough. He has won the first two legs of the series, and as long as he enters the starting gate for the Belmont Stakes, he can win the Triple Crown.

That part is not subjective. It's that "if he is good enough?" part that has everyone puzzling over the real answer to the question.

In this post, I shall attempt to delve into the details of I'll Have Another's racing career, preparation, and breeding in an effort to discover whether the odds of him winning are better than the odds of him losing. Along the way, we shall discover his potential strengths and weaknesses, and if all goes well, by the time we reach the end of this post, we should have a fair idea of whether or not I'll Have Another can win the Triple Crown.

RACING CAREER

First things first -- does I'll Have Another have the racing foundation to win the Triple Crown?

If anything is going to stand in him way of sweeping the Crown, it's probably his foundation. Every Triple Crown winner to date made at least six starts prior to the Kentucky Derby, most of them made more than six. In fact, Whirlaway raced an incredible 23 times prior to the Derby!

The following chart details the eleven Triple Crown winners and the amount of preparation they had prior to the start of the series:

Horse: Total # of starts prior to Derby (# of juvenile races/# of Derby preps)

HorseTotal # of starts
prior to Derby
# of starts
at age 2
# of Derby
preps
Affirmed1394
Seattle Slew633
Secretariat1293
Citation1697
Assault1192
Count Fleet17152
Whirlaway23167
War Admiral862
Omaha1192
Gallant Fox871
Sir Barton660

As we can see, of all of the Triple Crown winners, Seattle Slew had the least amount of racing experience as a juvenile, making only three starts. He, along with Sir Barton, had the least number of starts prior to the Derby.

I'll Have Another, like Seattle Slew, also made three starts as a juvenile. But unlike Slew, who started in three Derby preps, I'll Have Another only raced two times in the spring before the Derby, giving him a total of five starts heading into the Triple Crown.

Interestingly, while the majority of Triple Crown winners were heavily raced as juveniles, 6 of the 11 made two or fewer starts in the spring before the Derby; Sir Barton actually didn't run in any spring preps at all. So I'll Have Another's two starts this spring will be unlikely to hinder his chances of sweeping the Crown.

In conclusion, while it is true that I'll Have Another hasn't raced quite as often as any of the Triple Crown winners, his possible lack of foundation isn't really all that bad. Coupled with the fact that the majority of his prospective Belmont rivals have been campaigned in similar fashion, one realizes that racing foundation is probably the least of I'll Have Another's worries.

PEDIGREE

Perhaps there were some questions about the pedigrees of Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown heading into the Belmont Stakes -- questions about their ability to traverse the mile-and-a-half distance of the race -- but there is no such question regarding I'll Have Another. His sire, Flower Alley, won the Travers Stakes (gr. I) going ten furlongs and finished second in the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) at that same distance. His grandsire, Distorted Humor, is the sire of 2010 Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer.

On the dam side, I'll Have Another's broodmare sire is Arch, sire of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame. He is also a good source of stamina. Going a bit further back, we encounter the great Roberto, possibly one of the strongest stamina influences of all. Through in names like Danzig, Nijinsky II, Sea-Bird, Stage Door Johnny, Alydar, Princequillo -- and of course, a bit of Northern and Mr. Prospector -- need I say more?

RUNNING STYLE

All handicapping logic would seem to say that deep closers should win the Belmont the majority of the time. If a horse is gaining furiously at the finish of a nine-furlong race, wouldn't it stand to reason that the same horse would relish the additional three furlongs provided by the Belmont Stakes?

Actually, this is almost never the case. Perhaps it is due to the fact that the early pace in a race like the Belmont is usually slower than in shorter races, meaning that the closers are left with too much ground to make up on horses that still have something left in the tank.

On the other end of the spectrum, front-runners rarely win the Belmont either -- due probably to the length of the race, which most certainly does not lend itself to a gate-to-wire job. To accomplish that feat in a race like the Belmont requires the performance of a lifetime by a truly special horse.

Nor is the Belmont won by horses that make explosive moves around the far turn. Any horse that dares attempt such a move may take the lead entering the homestretch -- but good luck keeping it. The Belmont homestretch is quite lengthy, and a horse that moves on the turn tends to end up tiring in deep stretch, allowing a more patient horse to secure the victory.

So what running style does win the Belmont? Well, in most cases, the Belmont winner is a horse that is able to rate patiently in mid-pack early on, or else right behind the early leaders, and finish up with a strong run in the homestretch -- not on the turn. The ability to maintain a solid drive for five-sixteenths of a mile is also helpful.

Fortunately, I'll Have Another possesses such a running style. We saw him rate in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and we saw him press the pace in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. And we certainly saw in the Preakness that he has the ability to just keep grinding away in the stretch.

I'll Have Another's running style is most definitely not a detriment. He has perhaps the perfect running style for the Belmont, and that alone could lead him to victory.

POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES

So does I'll Have Another have any weaknesses heading into the Belmont? I could only come up with a few, and they are most certainly minor ones.

First off, let's talk about his possible dislike for mud. In his only start over an off track, in Saratoga's Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) last September, I'll Have Another turned in by far the worst performance of his career, finishing a dismal sixth while beaten nearly twenty lengths. Of course, he did come out of the race with sore shins, which certainly could have contributed to the poor performance. But the question is, was the poor performance a result of the sore shins, or were the sore shins the result of racing in mud?

Of course, the possibility of a muddy track on Belmont day is really pretty small, and chances are that even if the track were muddy, I'll Have Another would handle it just as well as anyone else. But I do believe this counts as a potential weakness.

Then of course, there is the fact that I'll Have Another will not be allowed to wear a nasal strip in the Belmont -- a piece of equipment which he has worn in all of his victories this year. I doubt the absence of the strip will have much of an impact on his performance, for it is a fairly minor piece of equipment, but it definitely counts as a potential weakness, for we don't know for sure how it will affect him.

Another weakness could potentially be his jockey, Mario Gutierrez -- although I seriously doubt it. Some jockeys without experience at Belmont Park make their moves too soon on the far turn, leaving their mounts without enough punch to hang on in the homestretch. But the fact is, Gutierrez has ridden this horse so well in all of his races this year, that I doubt the larger circumference of Belmont Park is going to be an issue. In addition, Gutierrez is going to get in some valuable riding experience here at Belmont during the coming week, so I really doubt that he will make a mistake in the big race itself. But I suppose technically you could count this as a potential weakness.

Other than that, I can't seem to come up with any more chinks in the armor of I'll Have Another. He appears to be heading into the Belmont as one of the most solid potential Triple Crown winners in years. If anything beats him, it won't be his foundation, pedigree, or running style. If he loses, it will most likely be a simple matter of another horse being superior under the circumstances.

So can I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown? My answer is yes. And not just the un-subjective kind of yes. In my opinion, I'll Have Another is going to become racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner.

Am I positive? No. But I am very, very confident, and in horse racing, that is as close to a definitive "yes" as you can get.

-Keelerman

BELMONT STAKES COUNTDOWN -- June 2nd, 2012

Plenty has happened during the last couple of days in regards to the Belmont Stakes (gr. I); including workouts, a near-accident, and the creation of a "Belmont Stakes detention barn."

Let's begin with the events of May 31st. First off, Alpha -- winner of the Withers Stakes (gr. III) and runner-up in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) this spring -- dropped out of the Belmont after spiking a fever a few days prior. He is now fine, but his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin rightly decided that it would be wise to skip the race.

Then came what was nearly a disaster for the entire race. I'll Have Another, who will enter the Belmont with an opportunity to win the Triple Crown, was involved in a near-accident when a loose horse nearly ran into the Derby/Preakness winner. A detailed article on the subject, including a slideshow of pictures, can be found at DRF.com: http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stakes-notes-close-call-ill-have-another-alpha-out

The only thing that really went right on Thursday was the workout turned in by Optimizer, who went five furlongs in a solid 1:00 3/5 at Churchill Downs. He is scheduled to ship to Belmont on Tuesday.

On June 1st, a separate training period for Belmont Stakes contenders was set aside at Belmont in an effort to keep another near-accident from occurring. Leading the trainees was, of couse, I'll Have Another, who galloped a mile in excellent fashion -- without incident, fortunately. Also training during the special session was Five Sixteen, who breezed five-eighths in 1:00.95 alongside stablemate Live for Today. With Rosie Napravnik in the saddle, Five Sixteen did not begin his work particularly quick, but finished up in very strong fashion.

Today's training at Belmont Park was hindered by rain, which left the track in very sloppy condition. Several contenders, including Dullahan and Street Life, were scheduled to breeze, but had their workouts postponed until tomorrow, when conditions are expected to be better. So the only training done this morning were the usual series of gallops, led by I'll Have Another, who looked good yet again.

***

So that's what's been going on in terms of training. But perhaps the biggest news of the week was the announcement that all Belmont Stakes contenders will be required to enter a detention barn on the Wednesday before the race, where they will be watched by numerous security guards employing top-notch security methods to make sure that nothing goes amiss in the days before the race.

A highly detailed and informative article on the subject can be found on Bloodhorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/70172/stakes-barn-to-be-used-for-belmont-horses

Fortunately, one non-Belmont stakes contender will be allowed to enter the detention barn, that being I'll Have Another's constant companion Lava Man. It had appeared possible for a couple of days that I'll Have Another would be forced to enter the new barn without his pony, but luckily, this will not be the case.

***

I find it somewhat hard to believe that only three graded stakes winners are pointing toward the Belmont Stakes. It appears that while I'll Have Another has scared away many of the best colts of the generation, he has been unable to scare away the numerous longshots taking a shot at the race.

So anyway, the three graded stakes winners pointing toward the race are I'll Have Another, Union Rags, and Dullahan. Between them, they have won the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), Preakness Stakes (gr. I), Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), Breeders' Futurity (gr. I), Champagne Stakes (gr. I), Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), and Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II).

Now, here are a few interesting facts I dug up this morning . . .

1. The last horse to win the Blue Grass Stakes and Belmont Stakes was Riva Ridge in 1972.
2. The last horse to win the Champagne Stakes and Belmont Stakes was Birdstone in 2004.
3. The last horse to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Belmont Stakes was Thunder Gulch in 1995.
4. The last horse to win the Santa Anita Derby and Belmont Stakes was Point Given in 2001.
5. The last horse to win the Breeders' Futurity and Belmont Stakes was Swale in 1984.
6. The last horse to win the Saratoga Special and Belmont Stakes was Swale in 1984.
7. The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes was Thunder Gulch in 1995.
8. The last horse to win the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes was Afleet Alex in 2005.
9. No horse have ever won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and Belmont Stakes.

So as we can see, Dullahan is kind of up against history in trying to sweep the Blue Grass/Belmont double. To be exact, he is up against forty years of history. On the other hand, no horse ever has swept the Robert B. Lewis/Belmont double . . .

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Near-Miss Profile: BIG BROWN

Owner: IEAH Stable & Paul Pompa, Jr.
Trainer: Richard Dutrow, Jr.
Breeder: Monticule
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

RACE RECORD (Through Triple Crown near-miss)


Age 3

DNF Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
1st Florida Derby (gr. I)
1st Allowance

Age 2

1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

Danzig
Boundary
Edge
Big Brown
Nureyev
Mien
Miasma

Triple Crown Near-Miss Profile: SMARTY JONES

Owner: Someday Farm
Trainer: John C. Servis
Breeder: Someday Farm
Jockey: Stewart Elliott

RACE RECORD (Through Triple Crown near-miss)


Age 3

2nd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
1st Arkansas Derby (gr. II)
1st Rebel Stakes
1st Southwest Stakes
1st Count Fleet Stakes

Age 2

1st Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

Gone West
Elusive Quality
Touch of Greatness
Smarty Jones
Smile
I'll Get Along
Dont Worry Bout Me

Triple Crown Near-Miss Profile: FUNNY CIDE

Owner: Sackatoga Stable
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Breeder: WinStar Farm, LLC
Jockey: Jose Santos

RACE RECORD (Through Triple Crown near-miss)


Age 3

3rd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
2nd Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
3rd Louisiana Derby (gr. II)
5th Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III)

Age 2

1st Sleepy Hollow Stakes
1st Bertram F. Bongard Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

Forty Niner
Distorted Humor
Danzig's Beauty
Funny Cide
Slewacide
Belle's Good Cide
Belle of Killarney

Triple Crown Near-Miss Profile: WAR EMBLEM

Owner: The Thoroughbred Corporation
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Breeder: Charles Nuckols Jr. & Sons
Jockey: Victor Espinoza

RACE RECORD (Through Triple Crown near-miss)


Age 3

8th Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
1st Illinois Derby (gr. II)
1st Allowance
6th Risen Star Stakes (gr. III)
5th LeComte Stakes

Age 2

1st Allowance
7th Manila Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

Mr. Prospector
Our Emblem
Personal Ensign
War Emblem
Lord at War
Sweetest Lady
Sweetest Roman

Triple Crown Near-Miss Profile: CHARISMATIC

Owner: Robert and Beverly Lewis
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Breeder: Parish Hill Farm & W. S. Farish
Jockey: Chris Antley

RACE RECORD (Through Triple Crown near-miss)


Age 3

3rd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
1st Lexington Stakes (gr. II)
4th Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
2nd El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)
2nd Allowance
2nd Claiming
5th Santa Catalina Stakes (gr. II)
5th Allowance

Age 2

3rd Allowance
1st Maiden Claiming
9th Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight
6th Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

Storm Bird
Summer Squall
Weekend Surprise
Charismatic
Drone
Bali Babe
Polynesian Charm

Triple Crown Near-Miss Profile: REAL QUIET

Owner: Michael Pegram
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Breeder: Little Hill Farm
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

RACE RECORD (Through Triple Crown near-miss)


Age 3

2nd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
2nd Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
2nd San Felipe Stakes (gr. II)
8th Golden Gate Derby

Age 2

1st Hollywood Futurity (gr. I)
3rd Brown & Williamson Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
3rd Indian Nations Futurity Cup
3rd Allowance
3rd Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight
7th Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

Fappiano
Quiet American
Demure
Real Quiet
Believe It
Really Blue
Meadow Blue

Triple Crown Near-Miss Profile: SILVER CHARM

Owner: Robert and Beverly Lewis
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Breeder: Mary Lou Wootton
Jockey: Gary Stevens

RACE RECORD (Through Triple Crown near-miss)


Age 3

2nd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
2nd Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
2nd San Felipe Stakes (gr. II)
1st San Vicente Stakes (gr. III)

Age 2

1st Del Mar Futurity (gr. II)
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

Buckpasser
Silver Buck
Silver True
Silver Charm
Poker
Bonnie's Poker
What a Surprise

Triple Crown Near-Miss Profile: SUNDAY SILENCE

Owner: Gaillard & Hancock III & Whittingham et al
Trainer: Charles Whittingham
Breeder: Oak Cliff Throughbreds Ltd
Jockey: Patrick Valenzuela

RACE RECORD (Through Triple Crown near-miss)


Age 3

2nd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
1st Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
1st San Felipe Handicap (gr. I)
1st Allowance

Age 2

1st Allowance
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

Hail to Reason
Halo
Cosmah
Sunday Silence
Understanding
Wishing Well
Mountain Flower

Triple Crown Near-Miss Profile: ALYSHEBA

Owner: Dorothy and Pam Scharbauer
Trainer: Jack C. Van Berg
Breeder: Preston Madden
Jockey: Chris McCarron

RACE RECORD (Through Triple Crown near-miss)


Age 3

4th Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
1st Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) (Disqualified and placed 3rd)
2nd San Felipe Handicap (gr. I)
4th Allowance

Age 2

2nd Hollywood Futurity (gr. I)
3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
2nd Breeders' Futurity (gr. II)
2nd In Memoriam Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
5th Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

Raise a Native
Alydar
Sweet Tooth
Alysheba
Lt. Stevens
Bel Sheba
Belthazar

Triple Crown Near-Miss Profile: PLEASANT COLONY

Owner: Buckland Farm
Trainer: John P. Campo
Breeder: Thomas M. Evans
Jockey: Jorge Velasquez

RACE RECORD (Through Triple Crown near-miss)


Age 3

3rd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
1st Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
5th Florida Derby (gr. I)
2nd Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. III)

Age 2

2nd Remsen Stakes (gr. I)
2nd Pilgrim Stakes
5th Maryland Nursery Stakes (Division #1)
1st Maiden Special Weight
6th Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

Ribot
His Majesty
Flower Bowl
Pleasant Colony
Sunrise Flight
Sun Colony
Colonia

Triple Crown Near-Miss Profile: SPECTACULAR BID

Owner: Hawksworth Farm
Trainer: Grover G. Delp
Breeder: Mrs. William Jason & Mrs. William Gilmore
Jockey: Ron Franklin

RACE RECORD (Through Triple Crown near-miss)

Age 3

2nd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
1st Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I)
1st Florida Derby (gr. I)
1st Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. III)
1st Hutcheson Stakes

Age 2

1st Heritage Stakes (gr. II)
1st Laurel Futurity (gr. I)
1st Young American Stakes (gr. I)
1st Champagne Stakes (gr. I)
1st World's Playground Stakes (gr. III)
2nd Dover Stakes
4th Tyro Stakes (Division #2)
1st Allowance
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

Bold Ruler
Bold Bidder
High Bid
Spectacular Bid
Promised Land
Spectacular
Stop On Red

Friday, June 01, 2012

Triple Crown Winner Profile: AFFIRMED

Owner: Harbor View Farm
Trainer: Lazaro Barrera
Breeder: Harbor View Farm
Jockey: Steve Cauthen

RACE RECORD (Through Triple Crown victory)

Age 3

1st Belmont Stakes
1st Preakness Stakes
1st Kentucky Derby
1st Hollywood Derby
1st Santa Anita Derby
1st San Felipe Stakes
1st Allowance

Age 2

1st Laurel Futurity
2nd Champagne Stakes
1st Futurity Stakes
1st Hopeful Stakes
1st Sanford Stakes
1st Juvenile Championship Stakes (Division #1)
2nd Great American Stakes
1st Youthful Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

Raise a Native
Exclusive Native
Exclusive
Affirmed
Crafty Admiral
Wont' Tell You
Scarlet Ribbon