Sunday, August 25, 2013

Travers Recap: Palace Malice may have been best

The results of the Travers Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga yesterday afternoon did little to sort out the muddled three-year-old division, which has been desperately searching for a leader ever since three different horses won the three Triple Crown races.

The victory by Will Take Charge put him square in the mix, for although he was sent off at 9-1, his credentials are fairly good -- he also won the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park during the winter, and one more major victory would make him an interesting contender for division honors.

That said, I came away from the Travers with the impression that Palace Malice was the best horse in the race -- and perhaps by a wide margin.

Palace Malice got the kind of trip that doesn't look particularly bad on first viewing, but which becomes worse and worse upon further scrutiny. After stumbling at the start, Palace Malice found himself in last place early on, a position that was surely uncomfortable for the usually speedy colt. This change in running style also resulted in Palace Malice being caught very wide throughout the race. That's why I give him a ton of credit for rallying in the stretch to finish fourth, beaten just three-quarters of a length. This performance becomes even more impressive when one realizes that the final quarter-mile was run in a respectable :25 1/5, during which Palace Malice made up just over four lengths. That puts Palace Malice's personal final quarter time at about :24 2/5, a very good clocking indeed.

It is my belief that had Palace Malice broken more alertly, he would have settled into third or fourth place early on, just behind Verrazano, and pounced on the far turn to take command of the race. From there, I think he would have had enough in the tank to put away Moreno and Orb and win in clear-cut fashion.

Of course, this is all just speculation. But with Palace Malice scheduled to make his next start in the ten-furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I), over the same Belmont oval upon which he won the Belmont Stakes, I must say that I honestly believe he is capable of beating his elders under those circumstances. I firmly believe that he is the best colt of his generation.

Now -- having said all that, I'd like to give some credit to Will Take Charge, Moreno, and Orb, the threesome who beat Palace Malice to the Travers finish line. Will Take Charge has come a long way since finishing last in the 2012 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), and his late-running win in the Travers was vindication of trainer D. Wayne Lukas' belief that Will Take Charge was capable of running with the best of his crop. After being beaten double-digit lengths in all three Triple Crown races, it would have been understandable had Lukas sent him to the Ohio Derby, or some similar race at a smaller track. But Lukas persevered, removed his colt's blinkers, and watched as Will Take Charged blossomed to finish second in the Jim Dandy and win the Travers.

Moreno also turned in an exceptional performance, lulling his rivals to sleep through fractions of :48.88 and 1:13.43, turning back a stern mid-stretch challenge from Orb, and just falling to defeat in the final stride of the race. He will shorten up in distance next time out for the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II), where he looms as the early and solid favorite to win.

Orb, making his first start since the Belmont Stakes, ran a much-improved race this time out, settling into fourth-place early on before slipping through an opening along the rail to grab the lead in midstretch. True, he did flatten out a bit in deep stretch, but this was a very good performance for the Kentucky Derby winner, who seems to be returning to peak form after sub-par efforts in the Preakness and Belmont.

I would also like to take a moment to mention Verrazano, who failed to fire as the favorite and wound up finishing seventh. Some will claim that this proves his inability to successfully negotiate ten furlongs, but I don't see it that way at all. If Verrazano was beaten by the distance, and only by the distance, he should have been in contention at least to the eighth pole, the supposed limit of his distance capabilities. Furthermore, it wasn't like he was tracking a taxing pace that would tire him out -- three-quarters in 1:13.43 should have left Verrazano with plenty of stamina for the final furlongs. Instead, Verrazano never looked like a win contender at any point in the race, and dropped out of contention as soon as the real running began. Something else was bothering Verrazano yesterday, and I would expect him to return to form next time out.

-Keelerman

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