(My apologies for not getting this posted yesterday -- it was an extremely busy day! But as the saying goes, better late than never, so enjoy!)
The highlights of yet another strong Saturday card are a pair of grade I races -- the $600,000 Alabama Stakes (gr. I) for three-year-old fillies and the $600,000 Sword Dancer Invitational Stakes (gr. I) for older horses on the turf. Both are prestigious races, but the Alabama Stakes is going to be especially important this year, as it is expected to go a long way toward clearing up the wide-open division and establishing a clear-cut favorite for the Eclipse award.
The morning line favorite in this ten-furlong race is
Grace Hall, a super-talented daughter of Empire Maker that is trained by Anthony Dutrow. As a juvenile, she won her first three starts in impressive fashion, including the prestigious Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) here at Saratoga. Her first defeat came in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), where she finished a strong second behind runaway winner and division champion My Miss Aurelia.
2012 has been an off-and-on year for Grace Hall, beginning with a narrow and shocking defeat in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) to begin her season. She returned to the winner's circle next time out, winning the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (gr. II) by 6 1/2 lengths over fellow Alabama Stakes contender
Zo Impressive, but could only manage to finish third in her next start, the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) at Churchill Downs. However, a speed-bias may have compromised her chances that day, and following a two-month break, Grace Hall returned to the races and dominated the Delaware Oaks (gr. II) by nearly four lengths. Given her strong ten-furlong pedigree, coupled with a pair of strong half-mile works, Grace Hall looms as the filly to beat in this deep field.
Her main rivals will likely be the 1-2-3 finishers from the Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I), a prestigious nine-furlong race held here at Saratoga last month. Those three are
Questing, Zo Impressive, and
In Lingerie. The first-mentioned filly, owned by Godolphin Racing and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, pretty much ran away with the Coaching Club, making a strong move into a quick pace to blow the race open and win by 4 1/4 lengths. A bit concerning is the fact that she was clearly tiring badly at the finish and drifting out a great deal -- and her pedigree, being by Hard Spun, may not favor this distance. On the other hand, she does loom as the lone front-runner in this race, and given how Saratoga is routinely speed-favoring, that could give the edge needed to defeat Grace Hall.
Zo Impressive, another daughter of Hard Spun, has won three of her six career starts and has never finished worse than second. Back in June, she won the prestigious Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I) over Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) winner Believe You Can and Acorn Stakes (gr. I) winner Contested -- clearly a top-notch effort. However, it is interesting to note that in her two starts around two turns, she rallied strongly around the far turn to loom a serious threat before flattening out and losing ground from the eighth pole home. Like Questing, there are legitimate concerns about her ability to traverse ten furlongs, although her raw talent is certainly enough to get her a major piece of the purse.
In Lingerie is an intriguing contender with an interesting race record. After breaking her maiden first-time out by 6 1/4 lengths she finished a distant second to Zo Impressive in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. She then shipped to Turfway Park and won the Bourbonette Oaks (gr. III) by six lengths in gate-to-wire fashion. About two months later, she stumbled at the start of the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) and suffered a severe cut to her leg, but nevertheless rallied from seventh to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Given sufficient time to recover from her injuries, she returned to racing in the Coaching Club American Oaks and finished third after making a bold run around the far turn. Taken at face value, that performance would not make her a win contender in this spot. However, she probably wasn't dead-fit that day, coming off of the injury, and will surely be sharper this time around. Furthermore, being a daughter of Empire Maker, she will surely appreciate the distance of this race better than many of her rivals, and jockey John Velazquez is returning to the saddle after missing the Coaching Club due to injury. Taking all this as a whole, one would have to think that In Lingerie is sitting on a much-improved performance -- perhaps not enough to get her the victory, but certainly enough to put her in contention.
One longer shot that could be in the mix is
Via Villaggio, who has spent the majority of her career on synthetic and turf tracks, where her biggest victory came in Betfair Hollywood Park's Railbird Stakes (gr. III). However, her most recent race was arguably the best of her career, as she rallied from last to finish a clear second to Grace Hall in the Delaware Oaks (gr. II) despite being forced to race very wide on the final turn. Her super-strong staying pedigree is a major plus in her favor, and with the added distance of today's race, she might just have what it takes to wear down Grace Hall this time around. At the very least, she should get a better trip than she did in Delaware.
The two longest shots in this race are
Sea Island and
Uptown Bertie. The first-mentioned filly's pedigree contains plenty of stamina, and she is coming off of a dominating allowance victory over older mares, but from a Beyer speed figure perspective, she would have to improve a great deal to contend in this spot. Then again, perhaps the distance of this race will enable her to do so.
Uptown Bertie lost her first six starts, but has since won three of her last four, including the Iowa Oaks (gr. III) last time out. But like Sea Island, she would need to improve a great deal to contend for the win, and being by More Than Ready, ten furlongs might be a bit beyond her range.
After thoroughly handicapping this race during the last several days, I have decided to select
Via Villaggio for the victory; my reasoning being outlined above. I also greatly respect the chances of
Grace Hall and
In Lingerie, and do realize that
Questing could be tough to beat as the lone speed, but I'm hoping that the lengthy distance of this race will help Via Villaggio find the winner's circle.
Now, having gone of the Alabama, allow us to take a brief look at the Sword Dancer. A field of nine has been entered, with last-out grade I winners
Turbo Compressor and
Point of Entry the morning line favorites at 2-1 and 5-2, respectively.
Turbo Compressor, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, is coming off of a gate-to-wire victory in the prestigious United Nations Stakes (gr. I), where he set a very slow pace before rocketing home his final three-eighths in a practically unheard of :33.49 seconds.
Point of Entry turned in a similar effort last time out in Belmont Park's Man o' War Stakes (gr. I), tracking a slow pace in second before blowing the race wide open with a terrific homestretch run, clocking his final three-eighths in about :33.75 seconds. If both Turbo Compressor and Point of Entry run back to their last efforts, the Sword Dancer should be a terrific race to watch, and they should both run 1-2.
The rest of the runners would need improvement and/or better luck to take down the top two.
Center Divider, Tahoe Lake, Newsdad, and
Game Ball -- the 2-3-4-7 finishers from the Man o' War -- are back to take on Point of Entry again.
Al Khali and
Brilliant Speed, who finished third and seventh, respectively, in the United Nations, will be trying to turn the tables on Turbo Compressor. The only horse not coming off of a defeat at the hands of one of the two favorites is
Hailstone, who finished third last time out in the 1 5/8 miles John's Call Stakes here at Saratoga, a neck behind Tahoe Lake and a half-length in front of Game Ball.
All told, this race would appear to be a battle between
Turbo Compressor and
Point of Entry, with
Brilliant Speed and
Al Khali most likely to pull off an upset. Brilliant Speed especially could be a contender if he were to revert to the pace-tracking style that saw him finish second in the Jamaica Stakes (gr. I) and third in the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I) last fall. But my selection nevertheless
Point of Entry, as I feel that his pedigree and versatility will allow him to out-kick Turbo Compressor when the real running begins.
-Keelerman
