SUCCESSFUL DAN WINS THE ALYSHEBA STAKES!

Successful Dan continued his successful return to racing this afternoon at Churchill Downs, wearing down Fort Larned to win the $300,000 Alysheba Stakes (gr. II) in impressive fashion.

Ridden to victory by Julien Leparoux, Successful Dan settled into the fifth position early on as Plutonium set a moderately quick early pace of :23.47 and :47.02. Fort Larned was racing right behind him in second, followed closely by Nates Mineshaft and Mucho Macho Man. Colizeo was next, followed by Apart and Golden Yank.

As the field rounded the far turn, Fort Larned moved up to take over the lead from a tiring Plutonium, with Mucho Macho Man following him into contention. But moving strongest of all was Successful Dan, who was sweeping past horses on the far outside.

Turning into the homestrech, Fort Larned turned back Mucho Macho Man's bid and kicked clear of the field. But Successful Dan continued to close in on the far outside, wearing down his rival inside the final sixteenth of a mile to win by three-quarters of a length. The final time for a mile and a sixteenth was 1:41.04, eclipsing the previous track record of 1:41.27 set by Brass Hat on July 8th, 2007. Mucho Macho Man finished third, while Golden Yank rallied for fourth.

Successful Dan is a lightly raced colt trained by Charles Lopreski. He finished first in the 2010 Clark Handicap (gr. I) before being disqualified to third. After going to the sidelines with a suspensory injury, he returned last month to win an about seven-furlong allowance race at Keeneland. Today's victory was the first official stakes win for Successful Dan since the Fayette Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland in 2010.

-Keelerman

Alysheba Stakes Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $300,000 Alysheba Stakes (gr. III), to be run on Friday at Churchill Downs. The 1 1/16th miles race is commonly used as a prep for the prestigious Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I) at the end of the Churchill Downs spring meet. This year's edition has drawn a number of highly talented horses, including multiple graded stakes winner Mucho Macho Man, the up-and-coming Nates Mineshaft, the talented but lightly race Successful Dan.

1 Nates Mineshaft
2 Successful Dan
3 Fort Larned
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Golden Yank
6 Boxeur des Rues
7 Apart
8 Plutonium
9 Our Dark Knight
10 Colizeo

(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)

-Keelerman

FIRST DUDE WIN THE ALYSHEBA STAKES!

In a thrilling edition of the grade III Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs, First Dude rallied strongly in the final strides to nab Regal Ransom in the shadow of the wire.

Under Martin Garcia, the four-year-old colt settled into fourth on the outside in the early going as Wise Dan set a moderate pace of :23.56 and :47.49. Regal Ransom was tracking him in second, with Equestrio and Mission Impazible not far behind either.

Turning into the homestretch Regal Ransom moved up to confront Wise Dan and took the lead. Caracortado was rallying strongly along the inside, and Equestrio was coming on as well. First Dude was grinding away on the far outside, and even eight-year-old veteran Awesome Gem was in the mix. Giant Oak was closing on the outside, but not quickly enough.

Regal Ransom looked like the winner a few yards from the wire, but First Dude closed in to win by a very short nose, earning his first stakes victory. The final time was 1:42.56.

Regal Ransom held second over Equestrio, with Awesome Gem getting up despite some stretch traffic for fourth. Caracortado, who loomed a serious threat in deep stretch, flattened out late, as did Wise Dan.

-Keelerman

KENTUCKY OAKS UNDERCARD ANALYSIS -- Part II

As promised, here is the second part of my Kentucky Oaks undercard analysis:

Race 9: Alysheba Stakes (gr. III)

As usual, the Alysheba Stakes has drawn a fascinating field of older males, including Awesome Gem, First Dude, Giant Oak, Caracortado, Mission Impazible, Wise Dan, and Regal Ransom. The complete entries are:

1 Wise Dan
2 Caracortado
3 Icabad Crane (Scratched)
4 Equestrio
5 Giant Oak
6 Mission Impazible
7 First Dude
8 Jardim
9 Awesome Gem
10 Demarcation
11 Regal Ransom

Although I’m very fond of Awesome Gem and will be cheering him on, I doubt that he’s up to winning a race like this at this time. His best races have come at longer distances, and he may not be at his very sharpest today.

First Dude -- who placed in the Preakness Stake, Belmont Stakes, Haskell Invitational, and Travers Stakes last year – will likely be among the favorites, but despite his impressive credentials he has yet to win a stakes race of any kind. Although he won an allowance race one month ago at Santa Anita in impressive fashion, he doesn’t seem to be quite as good as he was last year. With quite a bit of early pace here, I doubt that he’ll get any kind of easy lead. Under the circumstances, I can’t pick him to win.

I finally settled on Giant Oak. The five-year-old horse has been a fine stakes competitor since 2008, but is having his best season ever this year. He won the Donn Handicap (gr. I) in February at Gulfstream Park, and most recently ran a strong third to Mission Impazible in the New Orleans Handicap, where he closed his final eighth in about twelve seconds. With a rapid pace a possibility today, I see him grinding his way through the long Churchill Downs homestretch to secure a narrow victory.

Mission Impazible is a logical contender, but would likely need an easy lead to run his best race. With Regal Ransom, First Dude, and even Wise Dan likely to be up on the lead as well, I doubt that he’ll get the slow pace he needs.

Equestrio is an intriguing contender at 20-1 on the morning line. Last time out, he defeated Kentucky Derby favorite Dialed In in an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park. He drifted badly in that race, and is taking a step up in class, but don’t count him out of hitting the board.

Demarcation ran a disappointing seventh in the New Orleans Handicap last time out, but before that impressively won the Mineshaft Handicap (gr. III) over Mission Impazible. A quick pace could enable him to hit the board at impressive odds.

My picks:

1 Giant Oak
2 Mission Impazible
3 Awesome Gem

J.R.’s picks:

1 Regal Ransom
2 Giant Oak
3 Mission Impazible

Race 10: American Turf Stakes (gr. II)

This mile and a sixteenth turf event for three-year-old has drawn a very large field, led by Banned, Great Mills, and Air Support.

The entries are:

1 Close Ally
2 Great Mills
3 Banned
4 Memen
5 Kippers n’ Eggs
6 Smarter Than Ever (Scratched)
7 Man of Strife
8 Jakesam
9 Cozy Kitten
10 Swagger Jack
11 Tag V Eye (Scratched)
12 Private Prize
13 Air Support
14 Surrey Star

Banned is the morning line favorite, based largely on his fine juvenile form. At two, he broke his maiden second time out and impressively won an allowance race before finishing a good fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II). Interestingly, he finished a neck behind Kentucky Derby contender Master of Hounds in that race.

Given a break after that, he made his 2011 debut on April 17th, finishing a very close third in an allowance race at Keeneland. He’ll have to step up to win today’s race, but he very well may be good enough.

One horse I really like is Air Support, who rallied furiously to win the Transylvania Stakes (gr. III) last month over Great Mills and Adirondack Summer in his first start off of a five month layoff. At two, he decisively defeated Soldat in the grade III Pilgrim Stakes. If the early pace is quick, I expect him to be flying late.

Surrey Star won the nine furlong La Puente Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita Park in an impressive effort, and he too would benefit from a quick pace.

Great Mills is another logical contender. He didn’t do much at two, but has turned into a top-class turf three-year-old this year. He won the Grindstone Stakes at Fair Grounds over a nice colt in Willcox Inn and was most recently second, beaten a nose, in the Transylvania Stakes. If he can get away with an easy lead, he could prove very difficult to catch.

Don’t count out Private Prize either. When he gets to the lead, he can get very game and stay on well in the stretch.

My picks:

1 Air Support
2 Banned
3 Surrey Star

J.R.’s picks:

1 Banned
2 Great Mills
3 Private Prize

And so that concludes our analysis of the day’s great stakes races! Now go out and enjoy these a fabulous day of racing!

-Keelerman