Oxbow romps to easy LeComte victory

The talented Oxbow, sent off as the third choice at 4.60-1, turned in a performance worthy of a 1-5 favorite in the $200,000 LeComte Stakes (gr. III) on January 19th at Fair Grounds, winning the one-mile and seventy-yard race by a spectacular 11 1/2 lengths.

Ridden to victory by Jon Court, Oxbow flashed speed from the start, going straight to the lead and setting moderate fractions of :24.44 and :48.58 seconds. Heitai was tracking him in second, three lengths ahead of Malibu High. Hawaakom, Avie's Quality, I've Struck a Nerve, Fear the Kitten, Circle Unbroken, and Golden Soul were the early trailers.

Rounding the final turn, Heitai and Ive Struck a Nerve both moved up strongly to challenge Oxbow for the lead, with Heitai drawing within a head of the front-runner following three-quarters of a mile in 1:13.34. However, Oxbow had plenty left in the tank, and turning for home, he kicked clear of his challenges and opened up a commanding advantage. From there, the race was over, as Oxbow continued to extend his lead all the way to the wire, which he reached in the very good time of 1:43.30 seconds.

Golden Soul rallied late to secure second by 1 1/2 lengths over Fear the Kitten, while Ive Struck a Nerve rounded out the superfecta. Malibu High, Circle Unbroken, Heitai, Avie's Quality, and Hawaakom completed the order of finish.

The winner is owned by Bluegrass Hall and is trained by D. Wayne Lukas. He is a son of Awesome Again out of Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 1-19-13

A pair of official Kentucky Derby prep races are to be run over the next few days, beginning with the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds this afternoon and concluding with the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on Monday. Due to time constraints, we will be previewing only the LeComte today, and saving the Smarty Jones for either Sunday or Monday. That said, let's get started on the LeComte!

The one-mile and seventy-yard race has drawn a field of ten, with Avie's Quality the morning line favorite at 5-2. The talented Woodbine shipper is coming off of two consecutive victories, including a decisive triumph in the Display Stakes. As this will be his debut on dirt, there is the question of whether or not he'll handle the track, but assuming he does -- his pedigree suggests he will -- he looks like the horse to beat, especially with Rosie Napravnik in the saddle.

Two of the other favorites have major distance questions to answer. Circle Unbroken is the only graded stakes winner in the field, having won the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs last June, but he's never run past six furlongs, and has not run since August. Given the circumstances, it's difficult to envision him winning this race, although he certainly warrants consideration further down the road in races like these.

Another of the favorites, Malibu High, is unbeaten in two starts for trainer Cecil Borel, but has not run beyond six furlongs, and doesn't have the strongest of pedigrees for stretching out.

Very intriguing to me is Golden Soul, a lightly-raced colt coming off of a dominating 7 1/4-length maiden victory here at Fair Grounds at the same distance of today's race. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. is having an excellent meet, winning with 20% of his mounts, and Golden Soul's very sharp :48 2/5 workout on January 13th signals his readiness for this race. I think he's sitting on a winning effort.

On a similar note, Hawaakom won an identical one-mile and seventy-yard maiden special weight on December 15th, rallying in the sixth-path to win by 1 1/2 lengths. That alone would make him a contender here, and when you consider that trainer Daniel Peitz is winning at a 40% rate this meet, you have to think that Hawaakom is going to outrun his 20-1 odds this afternoon.

Oxbow and Fear the Kitten both ran well in graded stakes races last year, with Oxbow rounding out the superfecta in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Fear the Kitten rallying for fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). Both colts are well-bred and have the potential to run well here, but of the pair, I prefer Fear the Kitten, if not simply because Fear the Kitten's trainer Mike Maker has won with 45% of his starters this meet and is clearly doing something right!

Rounding out the field are Heitai, a four-time stakes placed Louisiana-bred facing open company for the first time; and I've Struck a Nerve, who tired badly in his two starts beyond seven furlongs. Both colts are longshots to win the race, but both have flashed enough talent to suggest that they could hit the board under the right conditions.

As for a selection . . . I really like the chances of Golden Soul and Avie's Quality, but I'll go with Hawaakom simply because I think 20-1 is way too high. Perhaps I'm missing something, but I'll take a shot.

****

As I write this, the first race of the day at Gulfstream Park has already been run, that being a seven-furlong allowance race for three-year-olds. The 4-5 favorite was Palace Malice, a Todd Pletcher-trained son of Curlin making his first start since breaking his maiden impressively at Saratoga last summer. Over a sloppy track, Palace Malice tracked the pace throughout, failed to match strides with front-running Majestic Hussar at the top of the stretch, but found another gear late to be closing ground at the finish. In the end, he was beaten just 2 1/4 lengths, while finishing eight lengths clear of the rest of the field. I thought it was an exceptional effort in his first start since August, and I expect to see a great deal of improvement next time out.

But let's give some credit to Majestic Hussar as well. He flashed a great deal of speed right from the start and was very tenacious in the homestretch, refusing to allow Palace Malice to reach even terms. The son of Majestic Warrior just keeps on getting better, and while it's difficult to say how far he wants to run, he does have an intriguing pedigree that suggests two turns are well within his reach.

On a side note, the results of this race did not reflect particularly well on the form of the $100,000 Spectacular Bid Stakes, held here at Gulfstream on New Year's Day. In that race, City of Weston rallied to be beaten just three-quarters of a length by Merit Man in the slow time of 1:11.39 seconds. In today's allowance race, City of Weston was sent off at 18-1 and wound up third, 10 1/4 lengths behind Majestic Hussar. So, either the Spectacular Bid Stakes was a rather weak race, or else today's allowance race was of exceptionally high quality indeed!

-Keelerman

LeComte Stakes Entries: Avie's Quality faces eight in American debut

Avie's Quality, sharp winner of the $150,000 Display Stakes at Woodbine last year, is scheduled to make his American debut on Saturday in the $200,000 LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds, an early prep for the Kentucky Derby later this spring.

Trained by Josie Carroll, Avie's Quality compiled a record of 2-1-1 from four starts as a two-year-old, with all of his starts coming at Woodbine racetrack in Canada. As a result, the LeComte will be his first race on dirt.

Rosie Napravnik, currently the leading rider of the Fair Grounds meet, will be aboard the son of Elusive Quality, whose dam is the grade I stakes-winning Lord Avie mare Fly for Avie.

Other prominent entrants include Circle Unbroken, winner of the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) last June but unraced since August; Malibu High, unbeaten in two starts for trainer Cecil Borel; Fear the Kitten, who finished a close fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II); and Oxbow, most recently fourth in the prestigious CashCall Futurity (gr. I) at Betfair Hollywood Park.

Post Positions:
1 Malibu High
2 Heitai
3 Fear the Kitten
4 Oxbow
5 Hawaakom
6 Avie's Quality
7 Golden Soul
8 Circle Unbroken
9 Ive Struck a Nerve

-Keelerman