Showing posts with label Final Mesa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Final Mesa. Show all posts

Friday, May 20, 2011

R HOLIDAY MOOD WINS THE MISS PREAKNESS STAKES!

R Holiday Mood took the lead from favored Final Mesa in deep stretch and held off the late run of Strike the Moon to win the $75,000 Miss Preakness Stakes by a head this afternoon at Pimlico Race Course.

Ridden by John Velazquez, the filly rated in second place early on, just behind 4-5 favorite Final Mesa. The latter set a moderate pace of :23.00 and :46.12 while leading the field by a half-length.

Turning for home, R Holiday Mood made her bid for the lead and put her head in front of Final Mesa. The favorite battled on gamely, but was beginning to tire.

Suddenly, out of the clouds, Strike the Moon came flying in the center of the racetrack. With incredible speed she cut into R Holiday Mood's lead, but her late run fell a head short. The final time was 1:12.12.

Bold Affair rallied up the fence for third, while Final Mesa tired to fourth.

-Keelerman

MISS PREAKNESS STAKES SELECTIONS

It is post time for the 9th race today at Pimlico, the $75,000 Miss Preakness Stakes. Currently, the favorite is Final Mesa at 4-5. Impressive winner of the Old Hat Stakes (gr. III) in January at Gulfstream Park, she will be making her first start since then but has been training very sharply.

Strike the Moon turned in an impressive performance last time out in an allowance race, and may have a chance at pulling off the upset. She will be ridden by J. Pimentel, and I believe that she can pull off an upset.

R Holiday Mood has made three straight starts in route races, and may benefit from the six furlong distance of today's race.

My picks are:

1 Strike the Moon
2 Final Mesa
3 R Holiday Mood

I shall post the results in a moment!

-Keelerman

Thursday, January 06, 2011

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 5th, 2011 - Old Hat Stakes Recap

The Old Hat Stakes ended with great surprise today. No, it wasn't all that surprising to see Final Mesa come home first. It was the remainder of the order of finish which had everyone scratching their heads and wondering what happened.

First off, Quantum Miss and Roxy Gap---whom were expected to set the pace or at least be close to it---found themselves fourth and sixth, respectively, in the early going after bumping each other at the start. As it turned out, It's Me Mom raced to the front to set the early pace. She was followed by Final Mesa, with Pomeroy's Pistol and Quantum Miss racing together.

The first quarter mile was run in a brilliant :21 3/5. Quantum Miss was beginning to inch closer to the lead, as were Pomeroy's Pistol and Final Mesa. Following a half-mile in :44 flat, Final Mesa took the lead and dared the other runners to try and catch her. Quantum Miss, despite being in the perfect position to strike, failed to rally and began to drop back. Roxy Gap was making a mild run from last, but Final Mesa's biggest challenge would come from Pomeroy's Pistol, the longshot at 34-1 who was running a huge race. At the eighth pole, the two fillies were separated by just a half-length, but Final Mesa drew off late to score by a convincing 1 3/4 lengths. Pomeroy's Pistol finished a very game second, with Roxy Gap a distant third, beaten seven lengths. It's Me Mom finished fourth.

Amazingly, Quantum Miss failed to any rally whatsoever, and the favorite tired to finish fifth, beaten by slightly more than eleven lengths. She did avoid finishing last, however, by coming home thirteen lengths in front of Mis Vizcaya, who faded badly on the turn.

Here are the results. . .

1 Final Mesa
2 Pomeroy's Pistol
3 Roxy Gap
4 It's Me Mom
5 Quantum Miss
6 Miz Viscaya

. . . versus my selections.

1 Quantum Miss
2 Roxy Gap
3 Final Mesa
4 It’s Me Mom
5 Pomeroys Pistol
6 Mis Viscaya

It is apparent that Pomeroy's Pistol is much better than anybody thought she was. Final Mesa proved that she is still the wonderful runner that she was early last year, and that her dismal performance in the Sorrento Stakes was a fluke. As for Quantum Miss, I am left wondering why she performed so poorly. Although she did stumble at the break and bumped with Roxy Gap, I don't believe that it cost her the eleven lengths by which she was beaten. Roxy Gap received the worst end of the bumping incident when she ended up last, as she is not a deep closer, but I felt that she ran well to finish third.

Several more great races are scheduled for next Saturday. I will be back in a day or so with my thoughts on them.

-Keelerman

Tuesday, January 04, 2011

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 4th, 2010

Although it is rare for me to post a Triple Crown Countdown in the middle of the week, I feel I must due to the fact that there is a grade III stakes race for three-year-old fillies at Gulfstream Park tomorrow. The Old Hat Stakes has drawn a field of six, led by the undefeated Roxy Gap.

This will be a short post, for the Old Hat Stakes is the only race that I will be discussing, but I feel that the race is worthy of having its own post.

FEATURE RACE ---- The Old Hat Stakes (gr. III)
Six furlongs (Dirt) at Gulfstream Park

Here are the runners. . .

PP/Horse/Odds
1 Mis Vizcaya (15-1)
2 It’s Me Mom (4-1)
3 Final Mesa (7-2)
4 Pomeroy’s Pistol (10-1)
5 Quantum Miss (2-1)
6 Roxy Gap (9-5)

The 9-5 morning line favorite, as I mentioned above, is Roxy Gap. Undefeated in three starts, all of which came at Woodbine, the daughter of Indian Charlie out of Harts Gap broke her maiden going five furlongs on the all-weather track. She sat just off of a stiff early pace and rocketed past the leader past the three-eighths pole to win by an easy 6 ½ lengths, stopping the clock in :57 4/5.

Fifteen days later she came out for the 5-1/2-furlong Shady Well Stakes, where she wore down Tree Pose to score by 2 ½ lengths in 1:03.14, just off the track .44 off the track record. Sent off as the odds-on choice in her most recent start, a one-mile turf allowance race on August 21st, she set all of the pace before drawing off to win by nearly five lengths in 1:35 4/5. Various setbacks forced her to miss both the Natalma Stakes (gr. III) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II), both of which she would have had an excellent chance of winning. As it turned out, the allowance race would be her final start of 2010.

Although the distance of the Old Hat suits Roxy Gap just fine, this race will be her first on a dirt track. Whether or not she can handle it is the key to handicapping the race. She will carry co-top weight of 120 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. She is trained by M. Casse.

Quantum Miss, 2-1 on the morning line, could prove to be Roxy Gap’s biggest threat. She has won two of her three races thus far, including a brilliant 16 length victory in the six-furlong Blue Mountain Stakes on November 24th. Granted, that was at Penn National, and this is taking a big step up in class, but her final time in the Blue Mountain was 1:09 3/5. I do believe that she is ready to take on the best Gulfstream has to offer. She will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Jeremy Rose. She is trained by Anthony Dutrow.

One filly that might be under bet is the third choice, Final Mesa. She broke her maiden by 7 ½ lengths in April and two consecutive stakes victories after that made her the favorite in the grade III Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar. However, she turned in a dismal performance and finished sixth of seven, beaten seven lengths. She has not raced since then. Obviously, the lengthy layoff is a concern, but she is in the same boat as Roxy Gap. Trained by Wesley Ward, she is to be ridden by Joel Rosario and will carry 120 pounds.

The fourth choice is It’s Me Mom, a Florida-bred who has yet to finish worse than third in six starts. Although it took her three attempts to break her maiden, she has since won an allowance race and the Presque Isle Debutante Stakes. However, in her only start on a dirt track, the Sandpiper Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on December 26th, she finished a distant second behind Devilish Lady. She may not be quite as good on dirt as she is on all-weather tracks.

The longshots are Pomeroys Pistol (10-1) and Mis Vizcaya (15-1). The former has but one win from three starts, that coming in a maiden special weight race. Her two starts since then have yielded a fifth in the Sorority Stakes and a third in an allowance race tired in the final eighth of a mile after nearly taking the lead. As for Mis Vizcaya, she has two wins from seven starts, neither of those victories coming in stakes races. None of her performances thus far have been good enough to win this race, which is why she is the longest shot in the field. Both Pomeroys Pistol and Mis Viscaya will carry 116 pounds.

Here are my selections. . .

1 Quantum Miss
2 Roxy Gap
3 Final Mesa
4 It’s Me Mom
5 Pomeroys Pistol
6 Mis Viscaya

I almost picked Roxy Gap to win, and I’m sure that she will run a fine race, but I believe that Quantum Miss is equally talented and has a conditioning advantage. It should be an interesting race.

Enjoy the opening of the Gulfstream meet!

-Keelerman