Watsdachances earns BC berth in Miss Grillo Stakes

Heavily favored Watsdachances earned herself a fees-paid berth to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I) when she rallied for a convincing victory in the $150,000 Miss Grillo Stakes (gr. III) on Monday afternoon at Belmont Park.

Ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, Watsdachances was content to settle back into the seventh position in a field of ten as Manuka Honey sat a slow pace of :24.77 and :49.60. Buckingham Bull, Three Hearts, and Adriani were her closest pursuers, followed then by Sustained and Atlantic Dream. Fly Again, Effie Trinket, and Wave Theory were the early trailers.

Manuka Honey continued to lead through three-quarters of a mile in 1:14.79 seconds, and turning for home, he kicked away and opened up a two-length advantage. But then Watsdachances began to advance, splitting horses gamely and accelerating in good fashion to win by 2 1/4 lengths. The final time for 1 1/16th miles was 1:47.90.

Sustained rallied well to secure second despite exchanging bumps with Watsdachances at the top of the stretch and subsequently altering course. Manuka Honey held third in a decent effort. Fly Again, Wave Theory, Three Hearts, Buckingham Bull, Atlantic Dream, Effie Trinket, and Adriani completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Chad Brown and owned by Michael Kisber and Bradley Thoroughbreds. A daughter of Diamond Green out of the Entrepreneur mare High Finance, Watsdachances has now compiled an excellent record of 3-0-1 from 4 starts, with earnings of $164,582.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN -- October 8th, 2012

Two more "Win and You're In" races are on the Monday card at Belmont, with a total of seventeen two-year-old colts and fillies looking for fees-paid berths to either the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) or the Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I). Let's start handicapping!

Pilgrim Stakes (gr. III)

As I am writing this, three horses have been scratched -- Bernie the Jet and James Jingle, the two main-track only entrants, and Read the Proposal. This leaves us with a field of seven.

Favored on the morning line is Noble Tune, a Chad Brown-trainee that rallied for an eye-catching victory going 1 1/16th miles on the turf at Saratoga on the final day of the meeting. He looks like a colt that will improve a great deal in his second start, and Brown is a master at training turf horses. And of course, having Ramon Dominguez in the saddle doesn't hurt!

Cerro is the second choice off of a seven-furlong maiden win in Italy, after which he was purchased by Team Valor International and transferred to the barn of Graham Motion. He obviously has plenty of potential, being an Irish-bred son of Mr. Greeley out of a Giant's Causeway mare, and a victory would certainly not be a surprise.

Notacatbutallama broke his maiden second-time out by 6 1/2 lengths for trainer Todd Pletcher, then was beaten just three lengths in the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) at Saratoga despite a less-than-stellar trip. In a race that doesn't appear to have a ton of pace, I can envision this speedy colt securing the early lead, setting a slow pace, and never looking back. Throw in the fact that the top two finishers in the With Anticipation -- Balance the Books and Joha -- and you start to wonder why Notacatbutallama isn't the favorite!

Also intriguing is Quinzieme Monarque, from the barn of Tom Albertrani. The son of Rock Hard Ten last his first two starts in sound fashion, but made a powerful run in his third and most recent start to win a 1 1/16th miles maiden special weight over the Belmont turf by 4 3/4 lengths. He seems to be coming into this race in good form, and while on the surface he may not possess quite the same turn-of-foot as Noble Tune, he did show a bit more versatility and tactical speed in his debut than Noble Tune did his; thus, Quinzieme Monarque may be up to pulling off a minor upset.

Making a selection isn't easy, as I can make a case for just about every horse in the field, but I feel that Noble Tune will emerge victorious in the end, his brilliant turn-of-foot being the key to victory. Notacatbutallama and Quinzieme Monarque also look like serious contenders, but I can't quite envision them getting the better of Noble Tune.

Miss Grillo Stakes (gr. III)

Trainer Chad Brown is well-represented here with Watsdachances, Atlantic Dream, and Wave Theory, who are the first, co-second, and co-fourth choices in a ten-horse field. The first-mentioned filly has by far the best credentials. After racing twice in Europe, she was transferred to the barn of Chad Brown and won the P.G. Johnson Stakes in her first U.S. start. Finishing second that day was Broken Spell, who returned to finish a good second in the Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland, thus stamping Watsdachances as a very high-caliber filly indeed.

In contrast, Atlantic Dream and Wave Theory are both maidens, each having raced once and lost. Wave Theory has been a bit more impressive than her stablemate, showcasing a sharp rally in her debut to lose a 1 1/16th miles maiden race by just a neck. However, Atlantic Dream was beaten by some very good horses when fourth in her debut, including Summer Stakes (gr. II) fourth-place finisher Kitten's Dumplings and next-out Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies Stakes winner Oscar Party. So don't count Atlantic Dream and Wave Theory out of contention, even though their records imply that they are overmatched here.

Sustained displayed a good turn-of-foot to break her maiden impressively at Saratoga for trainer Dale Romans; however, a fast pace may have exaggerated the effect of her rally. Fly Again was brilliant in her debut, rallying from last going seven furlongs on yielding turf to win under a hand ride, but is now stepping up in distance against some very good horses. Time will tell if she can be as effective going a mile and a sixteenth, but her form of yielding turf -- which is what she will encounter today -- makes her an intriguing contender.

My selection is Watsdachances, as I feel she holds a class edge over the field and will prove much the best in the end.

-Keelerman