Spring in the Air romps to Alcibiades victory

Sent off as the slightest of favorites at 4.30-1, Spring in the Air looked more like an even-money shot when rallying for a convincing victory in the $400,000 Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I) on Friday at Keeneland.

With jockey Patrick Husbands in the saddle, Spring in the Air broke a bit slowly and found herself racing tenth of fourteen horses early on as La Song set moderate fractions of :22.98 and :47.13 seconds. Speedinthruthecity, Magical Moon, Gold Edge, Tara From the Cape, and Skyfall were next in line, followed by Dancinginthecircle, Fully Living, and Rose to Gold. Broken Spell, Almost an Angel, Kitten's Dumplings, and Pure Indy were the early trailers.

La Song continued to lead the way through three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.85, but gave way shortly thereafter as Magical Moon made a bold run to take command of the lead. Under Rosie Napravnik, the filly opened up a two-length lead passing the eighth pole, but was soon swallowed up by Spring in the Air, who burst clear in deep stretch to win the 1 1/16th race convincingly in 1:44.33 seconds.

Broken Spell rallied well to secure the place, a length behind Spring in the Air and two lengths ahead of Magical Moon. Tara From the Cape, Fully Living, Almost an Angel, Gold Edge, La Song, Pure Indy, Dancinginthecircle, Kitten's Dumplings, Rose to Gold, Skyfall, and Speedinthruthecity completed the order of finish.

The winner, a daughter of Spring At Last out of the Unbridled mare Unbridled Run, is owned by John Oxley and trained by Mark Casse. She has now compiled a record of 2-2-0 from 4 starts, with earnings of $371,519.

-Keelerman

Darley Aclibiades Stakes Entries: Gold Edge goes for 4th straight win

The undefeated two-year-old filly Gold Edge is expected to go for her fourth straight victory in the $400,000 Darley Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I) on Friday at Keeneland, the opening day of the track's fall meet.

The daughter of Eddington has won her previous three starts in impressive fashion, including a gritty neck victory in the $150,000 Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes (gr. III) last time out. Trained by Lon Wiggins, she is expected to be among the favorites in this 1 1/16th miles race.

Other logical contenders include Rose to Gold, who won a pair of stakes at Calder by a combined 26 1/2 lengths; Spring in the Air, runner-up in the Natalma Stakes (gr. III) at Woodbine; and the consistent California-based filly Speedinthruthecity.

1 Pure Indy
2 Kitten's Dumplings
3 Rose to Gold
4 Almost an Angel
5 Fully Living
6 Broken Spell
7 Gold Edge
8 La Song
9 Spring in the Air
10 Tara From the Cape
11 Skyfall
12 Speedinthruthecity
13 Magical Moon
14 Dancinginthecircle
Also Eligibles:
15 Daar Zayad
16 Cloudy Vow

-Keelerman

The Juveniles at Saratoga -- August 12-13th, 2012

Over the course of these two days, it seemed that promising two-year-olds were turning in great performances left and right. Kauai Katie and Spurious Precision back up their impressive debut victories with strong stakes triumphs, and names like Seasoned Warrior and Agilion turned in efforts that left me wondering if they might become stakes winners someday too.

August 12th

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight
6 furlongs for 2yo fillies

Seasoned Warrior was the odds-on favorite for trainer Bill Mott, and the filly ran like on odds-on favorite should. With Junior Alvarado aboard, Seasoned Warrior broke on top, tracked Distortion through an opening quarter mile in :22.36 seconds, took over the lead shortly thereafter, and finished up with powerfully under a hand ride to win by 3 3/4 lengths in the sharp time of 1:10.47 seconds. Bliss rallied from off-the-pace to finish second, while Toasting overcame some traffic issues to be third. Distortion tired to fifth after her early efforts.

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight
1 1/16th miles on turf for 2yo fillies

The stallion Kitten's Joy has been having an excellent Saratoga meet, especially with his two-year-olds going long on the turf. Kitten's Dumplings, trained by Mike Maker and owned by Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey, became the latest winner for her magnificent sire when she easily rallied from off-the-pace to win this race by a decisive two lengths. With Javier Castellano aboard, the filly was bumped around a bit at the start, but recovered to race in eighth place while the leaders set slow fractions of :49.59 and 1:15.97. Then, Kitten's Dumpling made an eye-catching five-wide bid to secure the lead in upper stretch and draw off from their to win by two lengths, stopping the clock in 1:46.19 over a yielding turf course. Gustavia rallied from last despite traffic to finish second, while Oscar Party finished third after spending a good portion of the race in that position. Minnie Bear and Neith finished ninth and tenth, respectively, after setting the pace.

Race 10: Adirondack Stakes (gr. II)
6-1/2 furlongs for 2yo fillies

Kauai Katie was the heavy favorite thanks to her super-impressive debut victory on the opening day of the Saratoga meet, and the filly lived up to expectations to win this race in terrific fashion. With Rosie Napravnik aboard, Kauai Katie went straight to the lead and set stiff fractions of :21.77 and :44.93, yet still had enough left in the tank to coast home under hand urging and score by 2 3/4 lengths. The final time of 1:16.81 was not phenomenal, but her performance most definitely was. Owned by Stonestreet Stables and trained by Todd Pletcher, Kauai Katie's next start will likely come in the Frizette Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park. Salamera put in a decent run to finish second, but was never a match for the winner. Fully Living turned in a similar effort to be third. Cayllano failed to mount a rally while trailing for much of the race, and Vitameta tired badly after tracking Kauai Katie's pace.

Race 11: Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II)
6-1/2 furlongs for 2yos

Spurious Precision was the favorite at 3-4, and like Kauai Katie earlier on the card, was coming into his stakes engagement off of an impressive debut performance here at Saratoga. Ridden to victory by Alan Garcia, the Richard Violette Jr.-trainee got off to a good start and quickly seized command of the lead, but had to run the opening quarter mile in a practically unheard of :21.35 in order to do so. That alone could have fried his chances, and the half-mile fraction of :44.02 should have, but Spurious Precision just kept on running, opening up a two-length lead past the eighth pole before easing up at the finish to win by five. His final time of 1:16.53 seconds was even faster than Kauai Katie ran one race earlier! He's So Fine took advantage of the fast pace to rally for second, but never threatened the winner. In Harm's Way also closed well to be third. Drum Roll and Southern Honor finished fourth and fifth, respectively, after chasing the winner for a half-mile, while Dan the Tin Man stopped badly on the turn and finished a distant last.

August 13th

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight
6 furlongs for New York-bred 2yo fillies

The favorite was La Java, trained by Richard Violette Jr., but the filly spent most of the race in fourth-place and wound up there at the finish. In the meantime, Agilion turned in one of the most impressive performances I have seen at this meet, rallying from last under a strong hand ride to absolutely blow her six rivals away en route to a decisive 5 3/4-length victory. This despite trailing the field by 6 1/2 lengths passing the quarter pole. To me, this daughter of Lion Heart looks like a very promising prospect indeed, and I cannot wait to see where she runs next. Riptherubberoff dueled with Grand Lely Drive for the early lead and held on well to finish second while no match for the winner. Carameaway tracked the leaders in third but never really presented a rally while maintaining that position to the wire.

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight
5-1/2 furlongs on the turf for 2yo fillies

Trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole have raced a lot of horses together, with their most famous being 2010 Eclipse champion 2yo male Uncle Mo. Thus, whenever they team up and send out an impressive debut winner, it is natural to think "Could this be the next Uncle Mo?" It is undoubtedly too early to be making comparisons, but I must admit that Coconut Shrimp looked like a filly with a future after winning this race. With Javier Castellano aboard, Coconut Shrimp got off to an excellent start and dueled through fractions of :22.91 and :46.55. She then kicked clear and opened up a 1 1/2-length lead passing the eighth pole before holding off a late challenge from Dancing for Glory to win by three-quarters of a length in 1:04.40. The latter filly raced in fourth for much of the race before finishing up with a strong late kick, giving the impression that she could be one to watch in the future. Sunset Time dueled with Coconut Shrimp for the early lead before tiring somewhat en route to finishing third.

-Keelerman

SARATOGA STAKES ANALYSIS -- August 12th, 2012

The highlights of an intriguing Sunday card are a pair of graded stakes races for two-year-olds -- the $200,000 Adirondack Stakes (gr. II) for fillies and the $200,000 Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) for either gender. We shall begin our analysis with the Saratoga Special, which is scheduled to have six starters following the scratch of likely favorite Shanghai Bobby.

So with Shanghai Bobby out, favoritism will likely fall on Spurious Precision, a promising son of High Cotton that broke his maiden impressively on the second day of this Saratoga meet. Trained by Richard Violette Jr., Spurious Precision tracked a quick pace in his debut and drew off powerfully in the stretch to win the 5-1/2 furlong race by 3 1/2 lengths, and while the colt was entered in today's race at the last minute -- replacing his stablemate Carried Interest, who was out with a sore shin -- he is obviously very talented and looms as the most likely winner of this race.

Southern Honor will probably emerge as the second choice based off of his 7 3/4-length maiden victory at Parx Racing on July 4th. Trained by Anthony Dutrow, the colt is now stretching out an additional two furlongs, and shipping to a tougher circuit, but the fact that Dutrow is trying it signals that he has a lot of confidence in his runner. The jockey switch to Ramon Dominguez, by far the leading rider of the meet, doesn't hurt either.

Facing open company for the first time is In Harm's Way, who disappointed in his debut against New York-bred maidens before coming back to win a similar race by 4 3/4 lengths. From a Beyer speed figure perspective, he looms as the second-best horse in the race behind Spurious Precision; however, it's difficult to say how the large step up in class will affect him. Drawing the rail may also prove to be a disadvantage.

Drum Roll, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, looms as an intriguing contender. Sold for $300,000 as a 2yo-in-training, he showed good speed in his debut at Monmouth and drew off to win by 2 3/4 lengths; breaking from the far outside today, he figures to get an excellent trip while either leading or stalking the field through the early stages of the race. Having John Velazquez aboard certainly helps his chances as well.

Dan the Tin Man enters off of a five-length victory in a maiden special weight at Woodbine, but will be making his dirt debut today for trainer Ricky Griffith. He really couldn't be training any better, and gets the service of top jockey Javier Castellano, but the question of the dirt still looms a serious question. If he can transfer his form to conventional dirt, he could be a legitimate contender for the win at a solid price.

The last horse to discuss is He's So Fine, who broke his maiden at Belmont against a field of $50,000 claimers with an impressive late run. Looking at the Beyer speed figures, he would appear to be overmatched here, but as the lone true closer in a field of speed horses, he could wind up as the beneficiary of a speed duel and put in a good rally. You have to respect his strong pedigree, and trainer Kenny McPeek certainly knows what he is doing.

You can make a case for any horse in this race -- which is exactly what I just did :) -- but I have decided to take a shot with Pletcher's Drum Roll and hope that he gets an ideal trip stalking a couple of front-runners before wearing them down in the homestretch. Spurious Precision should run well again, but the fact that he was a last-minute entrant does worry me to a certain extent.

Let us now take a briefer look at the Adirondack Stakes, where Pletcher once again has a major contender in Kauai Katie. Owned by Stonestreet Stable, the filly absolutely romped in her debut on the opening day of this Saratoga meet, drawing off to a powerful twelve-length victory that earned her a Beyer speed figure of 100. Anything close to a repeat of that performance would probably get her the victory today, and with only four horses set to face her, she figures to go off as an odds-on favorite and likely add a graded stakes victory to her record.

Her competitors are an interesting bunch. Cayllano broke her maiden at Indiana Downs and subsequently took Delaware Park's White Clay Creek Overnight Stakes in impressive fashion, but is now stepping way up in class for trainer Thomas Amoss. Vitameta won her debut race at Calder by seven lengths, but the front-running daughter of Street Sense must now face the unenviable task of trying to beat Kauai Katie to the early lead. Salamera broke her maiden at Calder by over four lengths and came back to win J J's Dream Stakes by a neck over the same track, but is going to have to improve to beat the favorite. Last of all, Fully Living broke her maiden at Belmont in good fashion, but came back to finish a disappointing fourth in the Schuylerville Stakes (gr. III) here at Saratoga. However, she will race on Lasix for the first time today, signaling that she may have bled in the Schuylerville, and her most recent workout was extremely impressive. If anyone can defeat Kauai Katie, it will probably be Fully Living.

Nevertheless, my selection is still Kauai Katie, as I do believe she could end up being one of the best two-year-old fillies of the year. Fully Living should also run well, but she would need to step up her game in order to take down the favorite.

-Keelerman

Adirondack Stakes Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $200,000 Adirondack Stakes (gr. II), to be run on Sunday at Saratoga. The 6-1/2 furlong race is a major prep for the prestigious Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) and has thus drawn a quality field of six, led by the ultra-impressive debut winner Kauai Katie.

1 Sweet Shirley Mae
2 Fully Living
3 Kauai Katie
4 Cayllano
5 Vitameta
6 Salamera

-Keelerman

SO MANY WAYS WINS THE SCHUYLERVILLE STAKES!

So Many Ways proved that her eight-length debut victory was no fluke when she rallied past Baby J and Can't Explain to win the $150,000 Schuylerville Stakes (gr. III) by 1 1/2 lengths.

Ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, So Many Ways didn't break particularly quickly, but she soon recovered to settle about three lengths off of the early pace set by Baby J, who ran the opening quarter mile in :22.22 while showing the way over Brown Eyes Blue and Can't Explain. Sweet Shirley Mae was racing in fourth, followed by the eventual winner So Many Ways and Fully Living.

Baby J continued to lead the way around the turn, and entered the homestretch with a narrow lead over Can't Explain after running the half-mile in :45.85. However, So Many Ways was looming a serious challenge on the far outside, and while Can't Explain and Baby J fought on gamely in the stretch, So Many Ways eventually proved best, drawing off late to win the six-furlong race in 1:11.51.

Can't Explain wore down Baby J for second, while Fully Living, Sweet Shirley Mae, and Brown Eyes Blue completed the order of finish. The winner is trained by Anthony Dutrow and owned by Maggi Moss.

-Keelerman

SARATOGA STAKES ANALYSIS -- July 20th, 2012

Welcome, racing fans, to the first in a series of blog posts analyzing the major stakes races being held at Saratoga this year. Every graded stakes race -- as well as select listed stakes races -- will be given thorough analysis, and we shall try our best to identify some of the leading Breeders' Cup hopefuls before they establish their reputations. Let's start handicapping!

James Marvin Stakes (gr. III)

Today's stakes action begins with the eighth race on the card, which is the $100,000 James Marvin Stakes (gr. III), a seven-furlong sprint for three-year-olds and upward. The morning line favorite is Jackson Bend, who won this race last year before coming back and winning the Forego Stakes (gr. I) in his next start. The five-year-old Nick Zito-trainee is having a good season this year, winning the Carter Handicap (gr. I) and Hal's Hope Stakes (gr. III) in addition to placing in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (gr. II). Last time out, he turned in a poor performance in the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I), finishing fifth of sixth after pressing the pace, but the pace scenario of the race really didn't suit his style, and the one-mile distance of that race really isn't his best. He should be much sharper today while returning to a distance at which he is undefeated, and a repeat victory would surprise no one.

Caixa Eletronica is also expected to receive a great deal of wagering support, as the seven-year-old veteran is coming off of an impressive victory in the True North Handicap (gr. II) at Belmont Park. In that race, he took advantage of a pace meltdown to rally from over a dozen lengths behind. He is unlikely to get the same sort of pace today, but he is a consistent runner, and he should appreciate the distance of today's race.

Pacific Ocean has only raced once this year, finishing sixth behind Caixa Eletronica in the True North, but that was his first start since winning the Vernon O. Underwood Stakes (gr. III) last November, and he should be much sharper today. He is quite possibly the quickest horse in the race, easily capable of turning in a :21-and-change opening quarter, and should he seize command of the early lead, he could take this field a long way on the front end.

The only other horse in the race that might try and go with him on the front end is Crossbow, a speedy son of Bernardini that won two allowance races in front-running fashion earlier in the year. However, he could only manage a fifth-place finish in the True North Handicap (gr. I) last time out after being beaten to the lead by Pacific Ocean. He doesn't seem to be quite as quick early as Pacific Ocean, but he is more than capable of maintaining a solid pace to the finish, and so long as Pacific Ocean doesn't kick away turning for home, Crossbow should be able to wear him down inside the final eighth of a mile.

The longshots in this race are Golddigger's Boy and Scotus, a pair of closers that could pick up the pieces if the early pace is hot enough. The first-mentioned runner could be considered a Parx specialist, as he has made thirteen of his seventeen starts at that track and finished in the top three every time. He has raced here at Saratoga before, finishing a decent fifth in last year's Forego Stakes behind the above-mentioned Jackson Bend, but is 1-for-4 at tracks other than Parx, and may be in a bit deep here.

As for Scotus, only two of his twelve starts have come in sprints, but he has won both of them in impressive fashion. Being a deep closer, he is reliant on a strong early pace to set up his late run, but he has the talent to be a contender and is cutting back in distance after a pair of route races, which is often a successful technique. Don't be surprised if he outruns his odds.

My selection is Jackson Bend.

Schuylerville Stakes (gr. III)

Two-year-old fillies are the stars of this race, as six promising maiden winners are scheduled to contest this six-furlong event. The morning line favorite is Baby J, who broke her maiden impressively for trainer Michelle Nehei before being transferred to the barn of Rick Dutrow Jr. However, the eventual winner could end up being So Many Ways, who is trained by Dutrow's brother, Anthony Dutrow. Anthony is not known for winning with first-time starters, so when one of his horses breaks their maiden in their debut effort by eight lengths, it's worth noting. That is exactly what So Many Ways did in her debut, and if she improves on that performance at all, she should win this race.

Brown Eyes Blue, a daughter of Big Brown trained by Dale Romans, broke her maiden in visually impressive fashion on June 30th at Churchill Downs, holding off late run to win the six-furlong race by 1 3/4 lengths. But her front-running style could potentially be compromised by Sweet Shirley Mae, who broke her maiden over colts at Belmont Park on May 9th. She is coming into this race off of a lengthy layoff, but she is training sharply and should be a contender from the start.

The other two fillies in the race are Can't Explain, who broke her maiden second time out by 4 1/2 lengths for trainer Todd Pletcher. She, too, possesses a great deal of early speed, and while her recent workouts haven't been anything spectacular, she looks good enough to win this race on talent alone. But she'll have to be sharp to turn the tables on Fully Living, who handed Can't Explain a defeat when they faced off in a maiden special weight at Belmont Park on May 31st.

My selection is So Many Ways.

-Keelerman

Schuylerville Stakes Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $150,000 Schuylerville Stakes (gr. III), to be run on Friday at Saratoga, the opening day of the 2012 meet. The six-furlong race for two-year-old fillies has drawn a competitive field of seven lightly-raced juveniles, including promising debuts winners trained by Todd Pletcher (Can't Explain), Anthony Dutrow (So Many Ways), Dale Romans (Brown Eyes Blue), and Wesley Ward (Sweet Shirley Mae).

1 Sweet Shirley Mae
2 Baby J
3 Brown Eyes Blue
4 Can't Explain
5 Fully Living
6 Mr. Hall's Opus
7 So Many Ways

-Keelerman