TEETH OF THE DOG WINS THE DWYER STAKES!

Teeth of the Dog and Fast Falcon, the 1-2 finishers in the Easy Goer Stakes earlier this month, found themselves in those same positions this afternoon in the $200,000 Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park, with Teeth of the Dog again emerging victorious, but only by a head.

Under Joel Rosario, Teeth of the Dog got off to an alert start and soon settled into the second position early on as Morgan's Guerrilla set a testing pace of :22.99 and :46.12. Also up close were Monarchic and Guyana Star Dweej, while Zetterholm, Unstoppable U, and Fast Falcon were at the rear of the field.

As the field moved around the far turn, Teeth of the Dog began to apply more serious pressure to Morgan's Guerrilla, while Zetterholm loomed boldly on the far outside. The trio ran three-quarters of a mile in 1:09.91 and entered the homestretch with little between them.

However, on the far outside, Fast Falcon was putting in a terrific rally and appeared to be on his way to victory. Closing steadily, he quickly passed Morgan's Guerrilla and Zetterholm, while setting his sights on Teeth of the Dog. However, Teeth of the Dog dug in gamely for the final yards, turning back Fast Falcon's late run to triumph by a head.

The final time for a mile and a sixteenth was1:41.34. Morgan's Guerrilla held third over Zetterholm.

-Keelerman

Dwyer Stakes Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $200,000 Dwyer Stakes (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Belmont Park. The 1 1/16th miles race for three-year-olds has drawn a talented field of seven, led by Easy Goer Stakes winner Teeth of the Dog, Preakness Stakes (gr. I) fourth-place finisher Zetterholm, and Belmont Stakes (gr. I) also-rans Unstoppable U and Guyana Star Dweej.

1 Morgan's Guerrilla
2 Fast Falcon
3 Guyana Star Dweej
4 Unstoppable U
5 Zetterholm
6 Teeth of the Dog
7 Monarchic

-Keelerman

UNION RAGS WINS THE BELMONT STAKES!

Union Rags, under new jockey John Velazquez, proved that he is the superstar everyone thought he was during the winter when he rallied up the fence to win the $1,000,000 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) by a head.

Coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, in which he encountered a great deal of trouble, Union Rags was sent off as the second choice at 5-2 in a field of eleven, reduced from twelve by the scratch of I'll Have Another yesterday morning.

In the Kentucky Derby, Union Rags' trouble was due almost entirely to a sluggish start that left him too far off of the pace. In the Belmont Stakes, Union Rags broke much quicker before settling comfortably into the fifth position, about three to four lengths off of a slow early pace set by Paynter. The latter colt, under Mike Smith, quickly cleared the field after breaking from gate nine and held a one-length lead over Optimizer and Unstoppable U in the early stages of the race. My Adonis was racing in fourth, with Atigun, Five Sixteen, and Guyana Star Dweej racing in mid-pack. Ravelo's Boy, Dullahan, and Street Life were the early trailers.

Through very moderate fractions of :49.23, 1:14.72, and 1:38.85, Paynter continued to show the way while facing very little pressure. Rounding the far turn, he turned back a mild challenge from longshot Unstoppable U to briefly take a clear advantage, but Atigun was making a bold run on the far outside to reach contention, and Union Rags was rallying strongly along the rail. At the top of the stretch, it appeared as though any of those three could be the winner, but in deep stretch, Union Rags and Paynter pulled away ever so slightly from Atigun, with Union Rags triumphing by a head under a brilliant ride.

The final time for the twelve-furlong distance was 2:30.42. Atigun held on to finish third, almost six lengths clear of Street Life. Dullahan, the mild favorite at 5-2, failed to fire and finished seventh.

The winner is trained by Michael Matz and owned by Chadds Ford Stable.

-Keelerman

BELMONT STAKES SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Words cannot describe the sadness I felt when informed that I'll Have Another had scratched from the Belmont Stakes. After weeks of anticipation, wondering whether or not he would join the likes of Secretariat, Count Fleet, and Citation as Triple Crown winners, it was a stunning blow to learn of his tendon injury and subsequent retirement. But as the saying goes, the show must go on, and the time has come to take a look at what remains of the Belmont Stakes and make our selections.

Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
Twelve furlongs on the Belmont Park dirt track

Entries:

PP	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	M. L. Odds
1	Street Life	Chad Brown	Jose Lezcano	8-1
2	Unstoppable U	Kenny McPeek	Junior Alvarado	20-1
3	Union Rags	John Velazquez	Michael Matz	3-1
4	Atigun	Kenny McPeek	Julien Leparoux	15-1
5	Dullahan	Dale Romans	Javier Castellano	9-5
6	Ravelo's Boy	Manuel Azpurua	Alex Solis	30-1
7	Five Sixteen	Dominick Schettino	Rosie Napravnik	30-1
8	Guyana Star Dweej	Doodnauth Shivmangal	Kent Desormeaux	30-1
9	Paynter	Bob Baffert	Mike Smith	7-2
10	Optimizer	D. Wayne Lukas	Corey Nakatani	15-1
11	I'll Have Another	Doug O'Neill	Mario Gutierrez	Scratched
12	My Adonis	Kelly Breen	Ramon Dominguez	15-1

As I did for the Derby and the Preakness, I shall break the field down into three groups: "Unlikely Contenders," "Medium Contenders," and "Win Contenders." Enjoy!

UNLIKELY CONTENDERS

#2 UNSTOPPABLE U - He is undefeated, but with only two starts under his belt, this race is a huge step up in class. A front-running son of Exchange Rate from the barn of Kenny McPeek -- who pulled off a 70-1 upset in the Belmont with Sarava in 2002 -- Unstoppable U clearly has a bright future, but the fact that he is stretching out a full half-mile farther than he has ever run -- in addition to trying two turns for the first time -- makes him one of the longer shots on this race. On the other hand, he has been training well, and he should be able to work out a good trip on the front end, so it might be wise to not completely toss him from consideration.

#7 FIVE SIXTEEN - He's got a strong enough pedigree for this distance, being a son of the exceptional stayer Invasor, but his only victory from six starts came in a nine-furlong maiden special weight, in which the final time was 1:55 flat. That was two starts back; his most recent race was a nine-furlong allowance race against older horses in which he finished a well-beaten fourth. Hard to make a case for him in this tough spot, but weirder things have happened -- Da' Tara comes to mind! :)

#8 GUYANA STAR DWEEJ - This heavily-raced colt started nine times between November 26th and April 27th, claiming one victory and a quintet of seconds in the process. While he seems to be a nice enough colt, he was soundly beaten by Unstoppable U last time out, and would appear to be overmatched in this spot. On the other hand, his pedigree seems to say that he'll enjoy this distance as well as any other, so maybe the distance will help his chances.

MEDIUM CONTENDERS

#1 STREET LIFE - This promising son of Street Sense possesses quite the late kick, which he demonstrated when breaking his maiden and subsequently claiming the Broad Brush Stakes. He followed up those efforts with a disappointing effort in the Wood Memorial (gr. I), then rebounded to finish a strong third in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) here at Belmont Park. The only concern here is that such deep closers rarely win the Belmont, and while he is more than capable of securing a major piece of the purse, he may find himself with too much to do when the real running begins.

#6 RAVELO'S BOY - Most people are tossing this colt from consideration, mainly because he has yet to crack the trifecta in a stakes and still has only two victories from thirteen starts. But I've found a couple of reasons to like his chances. After all, he did emerge from his fifth-place effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) with a minor injury, and he has been training unbelievably well over the deep Calder main track. Perhaps he won't win, but don't be surprised if this well-bred colt outruns his odds.

#10 OPTIMIZER - While he has only a single victory from eleven starts, you can't knock this colt's durability. After all, he has made ten consecutive starts in stakes races, which includes solid efforts in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I), Rebel Stakes (gr. II), and With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) -- on three different surfaces! It's hard to overlook the fact that he has been beaten a combined 48 lengths in his last three starts, but he's beautifully bred for twelve furlongs, and his best effort would make him competitive here. Isn't it about time that trainer D. Wayne Lukas won another Triple Crown race?

#12 MY ADONIS - This last-minute entrant had a legitimate excuse last time out -- the fact that he shipped from New Jersey to Kentucky to Maryland in the span of a few days -- and has enough back class to warrant consideration. He did finish a strong second in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) in March, and coupled with his bullet five-furlong breeze on May 27th, you can make a case that this speedy colt could be a contender. His connections won this race last year with a 24-1 in Ruler On Ice, and while this colt does have to overcome the far outside post position, the guidance of top jockey Ramon Dominguez should make his task easier.

WIN CONTENDERS

#3 UNION RAGS - Some will argue that his Beyer speed figures have not increased from last year to this year, but the fact is, the poor trips he has received in his last two starts really didn't give him an opportunity to earn big figures. This colt is a long-striding type whose biggest weapon is his high cruising speed -- the ability to lope along at a fast pace without expanding too much energy. He simply doesn't have the acceleration to wait behind horses and burst past them in the homestretch. Nor does he have the ability to muster a tremendous late run from the back of the pack. What this colt needs is an outside trip, which will allow him to stretch his legs and make a move when he wants to. This won't be extremely easy to get while starting from post three, but with John Velazquez in the saddle for the first time, I fully expect him to accomplish it. From there, it's a matter of whether his pedigree can carry him a mile and a half -- which is certainly debatable.

#4 ATIGUN - Perhaps I'm crazy for including this horse among the win contenders, but year after year, we watch huge longshots triumph in the Belmont, and of the longshots, I think this colt is the best one. True, he was soundly beaten in a pair of Oaklawn stakes races during the spring, but he rebounded nicely to win a 1 1/16th miles allowance race last time out. He's got a strong enough pedigree to suggest that he can handle this distance, and with Julien Leparoux in the saddle for trainer Kenny McPeek, I can see him working out a mid-pack trip with a strong finish in the homestretch. Whether he is good enough to win remains to be seen, but if he does, you heard it here first . . . :)

#5 DULLAHAN - With the scratch of I'll Have Another, Dullahan has assumed the role of the favorite. His credentials are strong. He finished third in the Derby, and probably would have won with a better trip. He has been training phenomenally since then. He has top Belmont park jockey Javier Castellano in the saddle. He can't lose, right? While I certainly won't be surprised at all if he wins, I'm going to take a stand against him simply because of his running. Deep closers like Dullahan rarely win the Belmont, for reasons described above. Perhaps his brilliant half-mile drill on June 3rd is a sign that he will try and stay a bit closer to the pace than usual, but chances are, he will be well behind the leaders early on. Another reason I'm leaning toward other horses is the fact that his late charge in the Derby may have been partly an illusion. Many times, we have seen horses closer from impossibly far back in the Kentucky Derby to secure a major piece of the purse, only to watch them disappoint in their next starts when facing a much slower pace. Went the Day Well is a recent example, as is Ice Box from two years ago. Can Dullahan win? Of course he can! But you can't pick every horse.

#9 PAYNTER - Consider this colt the wild card. Racing for the same connections as Derby/Preakness runner-up Bodemeister, this colt has actually been considered for months as the better of the two horses. While he hasn't yet found the success of his more famous stablemate, this lightly-raced son of Awesome Again has demonstrated during his short career that he could eventually be one of the best of his crop. He began his career by winning a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita by an overwhelmingly easy 4 1/4 lengths. He then stepped up to grade I company in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), where he ran extremely well given the circumstances to finish fourth, beaten less than four lengths by I'll Have Another. A second-place finish in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) over a sloppy track did little to diminish his reputation, but it was his next start that really got people talking about what kind of a colt he might be. Sent off as the 1-10 favorite in a 1 1/16th miles allowance race at Pimlico, he absolutely dominated in front-running fashion, coasting home under a hand ride to win by 5 3/4 lengths. The victory earned him a Beyer speed figure of 106, by far the highest figure earned by any horse in this race. If you think he is too lightly raced to win the Belmont, you have a valid enough point. And it's true that he is taking a huge step up in distance, not to mention class. But he has been training well, and trainer Bob Baffert wouldn't be running him if he didn't think he had a chance. Plus, he's got as strong a pedigree for this race as anyone else in the field, which could definitely be an asset in those final two furlongs. I say he gets a terrific trip pressing a slow pace before finishing up strongly to pull off a mild upset.

My selections are:

1 Paynter
2 Dullahan
3 Atigun
4 Union Rags

I could really go with any of these four, and I could certainly change my mind during the next twenty-four hours, but for the time being, I feel fairly confident in Paynter's chances.

Here are J.R.'s selections:

1 Dullahan
2 Ravelo's Boy
3 Optimizer
4 Union Rags

J.R. feels that Dullahan was the best horse in the Derby, and will prove that with a dominating victory tomorrow afternoon. He claims the final time will be in the vicinity of 2:26 2/5, further stamping this crop of three-year-olds as one of the best in recent memory.

-Keelerman

2012 Belmont Stakes Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $1,000,000 Belmont Stakes (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Belmont Park. The 1 1/2-mile classic has drawn a fairly large field of twelve, led by Kentucky Derby/Preakness Stakes winner I'll Have Another, who will attempt to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.

PP	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	M. L. Odds
1	Street Life	Chad Brown	Jose Lezcano	12-1
2	Unstoppable U	Kenny McPeek	Junior Alvarado	30-1
3	Union Rags	John Velazquez	Michael Matz	6-1
4	Atigun	Kenny McPeek	Julien Leparoux	30-1
5	Dullahan	Dale Romans	Javier Castellano	5-1
6	Ravelo's Boy	Manuel Azpurua	Alex Solis	50-1
7	Five Sixteen	Dominick Schettino	Rosie Napravnik	50-1
8	Guyana Star Dweej	Doodnauth Shivmangal	Kent Desormeaux	50-1
9	Paynter	Bob Baffert	Mike Smith	8-1
10	Optimizer	D. Wayne Lukas	Corey Nakatani	20-1
11	I'll Have Another	Doug O'Neill	Mario Gutierrez	4-5
12	My Adonis	Kelly Breen	Ramon Dominguez	20-1

BELMONT STAKES COUNTDOWN -- June 5th, 2012

With the Belmont Stakes now just four days away, all of the contenders have finished their major training. The final pre-Belmont workout turned in by a potential starter was completed yesterday morning when Guyana Star Dweej, expected to be the longest shot in the field, worked a half-mile in :49.06 in company with graded stakes winner Shkspeare Shaliyah, who was credited with an identical time.

Other than that, with training completed, there won't be a great deal to discuss during the coming days. The biggest news to emerge today is that Lava Man, the constant companion of Derby/Preakness winner I'll Have Another, will not accompany the budding superstar into the Belmont Stakes detention barn tomorrow morning, simply because trainer Doug O'Neill feels the old gelding will be unable to adapt to the changes as well as his younger friend.

BELMONT STAKES COUNTDOWN -- May 30th, 2012

With the Belmont Stakes now just ten days away, and with most of the prospective runners scheduled to turn in their final workouts this weekend, the work tab at Belmont was understandably a bit on the light side this morning, with only one potential Belmont starter turning in a breeze.

That horse was Guyana Star Dweej, who is expected to be one of the longest shots of all in the mile-and-a-half classic. Owned by Shivmangal Racing Stable and trained by Doodnauth Shivmangal, the son of Eddington breezed a half-mile in an easy :50.03, which was his first work since finishing second in an allowance optional claiming race at Belmont on April 27th.

As for I'll Have Another, he turned in another routine one-mile gallop under exercise rider Jonny Garcia. With no workouts planned between now and the Belmont, we will have to rely on his gallops to try and gauge how well he is training up to the biggest race of his life. All indications are that he is doing phenomenally well and should be sitting on another huge effort come June 9th.

***

In my last Belmont Stakes Countdown, I wrote, "It's probably too early to start looking for track biases that might affect the Belmont Stakes -- after all, the race is still twelve days away -- but with this [the Memorial Day racecard] being a huge day of racing, I wouldn't be surprised if the track is prepared for racing in similar fashion [to how it will be prepared on Belmont day]. So if every race on the main track were won in wire-to-wire fashion, we might want to look out for a similar bias come Belmont day."

Much to my surprise, a speed bias did emerge on Memorial day. The first grade I race of the day, the Ogden Phipps Handicap (gr. I) for fillies and mares, was won by pace-pressing It's Tricky, who just wore down longshot Cash for Clunkers to win by about a half-length. Awesome Maria, the heavy favorite, was unable to mount a serious rally after racing off the pace.

The next grade I race was the Acorn Stakes (gr. I) for three-year-old fillies, in which Contested opened up an uncontested early lead and coasted home from there to win by five lengths. Zo Impressive and Aubby K rounded out the trifecta after racing in third and second, respectively, most of the way around the track.

The final grade I of the day was the $750,000 Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I), where Shackleford took the race in gate-to-wire fashion despite running the opening half-mile in a blazing :44.73. Caleb's Posse did succeed in rallying from off the pace to finish second, overcoming the bias to be beaten just a nose.

The other main track races also showed serious evidence of a bias. In the first race on the card, a 57-1 shot was the pacesetter, and even the bias couldn't carry him to victory, but the eventual 1-2-3 finishers raced right behind him all the way around the track and settled the race between them in the stretch, with no one rallying from off the pace.

Race 3 was the next main track race, and once again speed dominated. Even Got Quiet, a 12-1 shot under Kent Desormeaux, sat just off of the early pace before taking over and drawing away to a nearly four-length victory under hand urging. Readthebyline did succeed in rallying from fifth to secure second, but was never too far off of the early pace. Fair Trade finished third after setting the pace. Smokem's Charm raced in fourth for most of the race and finished fourth. Bob and Jim raced fifth for much of the race and wound up fifth. The sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth-place finishers all failed to rally whatsoever despite the fast early pace.

Race 6, the only other main track race on the card, was won by pace-pressing Buffum, whose dominating eight-length victory signaled that bias or not, no one was going to beat him. But most intriguing here was that pace-setting Star Harbour, who ran the opening half-mile in :44.90, managed to be beaten only a half-length for second by a pair of talented closers that should have blown right past him. Another highly capable closer, Gallent Fields, never rallied en route to a fifth-place finish.

In conclusion, I will be keeping my eyes open on Belmont day to see if a similar bias emerges.

***

A fascinating article by David Grening was posted on DRF.com yesterday, describing how I'll Have Another's trainer, Doug O'Neill, talked with Billy Turner -- the only living trainer of a Triple Crown winner -- on the subject of preparing horses for the Belmont Stakes. It's most definitely worth reading: http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stakes-2012-oneill-consults-billy-turner-seattle-slews-trainer

-Keelerman

Belmont Stakes Contender Profile: GUYANA STAR DWEEJ

Owner: Shivmangal Racing Stable, LLC
Trainer: Doodnauth Shivmangal
Breeder: Lavin Bloodstock & Leroy S. Close
Expected Belmont Jockey: Unknown

RACE RECORD

Age 3

2nd Allowance Optional Claiming
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Claiming
4th Maiden Special Weight

Age 2

7th Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Claiming
9th Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Unbridled
	Eddington
		Fashion Star
Guyana Star Dweej
		Pine Bluff
	Special Feeling
		Specialization

Preakness Contender Profile: GUYANA STAR DWEEJ

Owner: Shivmangal Racing Stable, LLC
Trainer: Doodnauth Shivmangal
Breeder: Lavin Bloodstock & Leroy S. Close
Expected Preakness Jockey: Unknown
RACE RECORD
Age 3

2nd Allowance Optional Claiming
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Claiming
4th Maiden Special Weight

Age 2

7th Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Claiming
9th Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Unbridled
	Eddington
		Fashion Star
Guyana Star Dweej
		Pine Bluff
	Special Feeling
		Specialization

LAST WORKOUT

April 21st: 4f in :50.97 at Belmont Park.