ANALYSIS OF BREEDERS' CUP PRE-ENTRIES

With the Breeders' Cup pre-entries having been announced this morning, the real fun begins. From now until the final entries come out is the Research Period, where one checks and double checks the facts on every runner and finds out as much as possible about any runner they don't recognize.

Of course, one can't do any serious handicapping until the final entries are announced, but it's still great fun to dig through the pre-entries and start laying the groundwork.

This post is not a handicapping post; in other words, I'm not going to root through the names and make my picks. That will come a couple days before the races. Instead, I'm going to go over every race and try to find a few sleepers and great stories that haven't gotten very much publicity. Enjoy!

CLASSIC

Obviously the most looked-forward-to race, the Breeders' Cup Classic has drawn an oversubscribed field of sixteen. However, two of those entered, Crown of Thorns and Dakota Phone, have first preference in the Dirt Mile, which makes it unlikely that any horse will be kept out of the Classic.

The big names are, of course, Zenyatta, Lookin at Lucky, Blame, and Quality Road, but there is one other horse that warrants some serious attention and may be overlooked in the betting.

This horse is Musket Man. The four year old colt has shown great form for two years now, but has been running mostly in sprint races. His form over a distance of ground has been very good however. In the Met Mile earlier this year, he finished a closing second, beaten just over a length by Quality Road. A third place finish in the Whitney followed, then a narrowly beaten second to Etched in the Monmouth Cup. These performances alone warrant a shot at the Classic, but it is the form he displayed as a three-year-old that really fascinates me. He ran third to Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby and third again in the Preakness despite steadying on the far turn. Being beaten a length and a half by Rachel Alexandra is not easy, but he managed to pull it off. Returning to a mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs may be just the thing he needs to run his very best race.

TURF

The Breeders' Cup Turf has drawn eleven pre-entries, of which only eight are likely to run. Two fillies, Red Desire and Plumania, have first preference in the Filly & Mare Turf, while Paddy O'Prado has first preference in the Classic.

All year, European shippers have dominated here in North America. Debussy won the Arlington Million, Chinchon the United Nations, Joshua Tree the Canadian International, etc. etc. However, in my opinion, the winner of the Breeders' Cup Turf may just come from the United States.

The deserving favorite here will be Workforce, who enters the race off of a hard-fought neck victory in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Behkabad, fourth in that race, could end up being the second choice. Together, they lead a formidable quartet of European colts who have their sights set on victory.

However, it is interesting to note that no horse has ever won the Arc and the Turf in the same year; denoting to complete the sweep is next to impossible. Add that to the fact that this year's running of the Arc was a very trying race, with quite a bit of interference, and you have yourself a favorite that may be vulnerable.

If this is the case, it may be Winchester who flies to victory. The five year old horse has been very consistent as of late, and has won two grade I races this year, the Manhattan Handicap and the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes, both at Belmont Park. It appears as though he relishes the Belmont Park turf course, but he has had some moderate success over smaller ovals. Having beaten Gio Ponti and Paddy O'Prado, he could prove too much for the Europeans if they don't fire their best shots.

DIRT MILE

As usual, the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile has drawn a large, well-matched field. Fifteen have been entered, but two of them, Morning Line and Tropic Storm, have first preference in other races, meaning that thirteen will most likely go to post.

Several horses will vie for favoritism here, including Here Comes Ben, Vineyard Haven, Tizway, and Crown of Thorns. The four of them look very tough to beat, but there are a few other quality runners here that will likely make their presence felt in the stretch.

Mad Flatter is an excellent example. He turned in a very good effort last time out, winning the grade III Spend a Buck Handicap by over six lengths last time out, defeating odds-on favorite Mambo Meister.

Then there is the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. He has not been in very good form as of late, finishing off the board in all three starts this year, but he is returning to the site of his victory in the Derby, so if he's going to show his best form, it will likely be here.

One mustn’t ignore Thiskyhasnolimit either. He won the Iroquois Stakes here at Churchill Downs over a mile last fall, and has been in excellent form. He enters the race off of a second place finish to Lookin at Lucky in the Indiana Derby, and may offer a bit of a price.

MILE

Concerning the Breeders' Cup Mile, one question burns in the mind of every horse racing fan ---- can Goldikova pull off what has never been done before and win a third consecutive Breeders' Cup race?

A win would etch her name into history for all time. However, a very good field of ten has turned out to face her, although only nine have first preference to run here. With Gio Ponti opting for the Classic, her task has become a bit easier, but it will still be no walk in the park.

Her stiffest opposition may come from one of the other European shippers, Paco Boy. Although he has never beaten Goldikova before, he has come close on multiple occasions.

Proviso is the other mare in the field, and she has won four consecutive grade I races. Back in March, she won the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap against males, and she has proven herself over a variety of turf courses. A closer, if she gets the jump on Goldikova, she may be able to hold her off.

One horse who may offer value is Get Stormy. Very disappointing last time out when he finished fourth to Gio Ponti in the Shadwell Mile, he was running great prior to that race and has a good chance at rebounding here.

JUVENILE

Uncle Mo or Boys at Tosconova? This is the question that nearly every horse racing fan is asking. It seems as though you are either for one or the other, and all other runners have been shoved back into the shadows.

Uncle Mo won the Champagne Stakes in 1:34 2/5 --- a truly incredible performance. Boys at Tosconova won the Hopeful without urging --- also an incredible performance. However, neither colt has ventured two turns before, which is a worrying factor.

So if Boys and Mo fail to fire their best shots in the Juvenile, there is a pair of juveniles from California that could prove more than the Eastern wonders can handle. They are Jaycito, winner of the Norfolk Stakes and J P's Gusto, the runner up. Both have a good foundation under them, especially J P's Gusto, and both should benefit from making their first start on dirt. J P's Gusto, a front-running colt, should relish the dirt surface, which is typically friendly to front runners.

Rogue Romance could also offer a great price. He could be any kind of colt after his impressive victory in the Bourbon Stakes last time out. Of course, he will be trying dirt for the first time, but who knows what he might be able to accomplish?

TURF SPRINT

The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint ---- five furlongs of pure speed and dexterity. Will Chamberlain Bridge rebound off of his third place finish in the Woodford? Can Californian Flag rebound off of a last place effort in that same race? Can Silver Timber add a Breeders' Cup win to his already impressive resume? Can the Morvich Handicap winner Quick Enough prove quick enough to win? Or will one of the females, like Canadian Ballet, Rose Catherine, and Unzip Me prove best under the Twin Spires?

Of the fourteen Breeders' Cup races, this one may be the toughest to handicap. There are a half dozen horses here that I really like, but based strictly on value, it's hard to ignore Stradivinsky, He won the Jaipur Stakes at Belmont Park earlier this year in a very sharp time and ran third to Chamberlain Bridge in the Turf Monster Handicap last time out. He could be ready for a monster effort in the Breeders’ Cup.

SPRINT

One of the most wide-open Breeders' Cup races this year, the Sprint has drawn an evenly-matched field of twelve. The favorite will likely be Girolamo, fresh off of workman-like victory in the Vosburgh Stakes. It was his first grade I victory, and he looks to establish himself as one of the top sprinters in the country with a victory here.

One horse that has been receiving very little attention is Kinsale King, winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen back in March. He raced for a time in Europe, then returned to the United States and has been training up to this race. If he runs to his Shaheen form, it will be very hard to beat him.

Atta Boy Roy is another horse who may offer a price. He was disappointing in his last start, the Woodford Stakes, but that was over a turf course. Arguably his best win came here at Churchill Downs in the Churchill Downs Stakes back in May, where he defeated Warrior's Reward, Musket Man, and others.

Wise Dan, coming off of a narrow victory in the Phoenix Stakes, broke his maiden by over fifteen lengths back in March and won an allowance race here at Churchill earlier this year. He could run huge in his second start back from a layoff.

JUVENILE TURF

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf has drawn a field of nineteen two year olds, of which at least a half dozen could vie for favoritism. With Biondetti and Rogue Romance eyeing the richer Juvenile, the favorites will likely by Air Support and Soldat, the one-two finishers in the Pilgrim Stakes.

Major Gain could offer a very good price and has a decent shot at winning. He began his career by running second in a maiden special weight race, then won the grade III Arlington-Washington Futurity by a length. Sent off as the favorite in his next start, the grade I Dixiana Breeders’ Cup Futurity, he ran a well-beaten fifth.

Madman Diaries is another interesting colt. He has won three of his five starts, finishing second in the other two, and comes off of a sharp win in the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth Park. However, he has yet to run farther than six furlongs.

LADIES' CLASSIC

A spectacular field of twelve has been pre-entered for the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, led by the leading three-year-old filly Blind Luck, winner of three grade I races this year, including the Kentucky Oaks. Returning to the site of her Oaks victory, she should get some serious pace to run at here and will be the deserving favorite.

However, she was beaten in her last race, the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes, by Havre de Grace. Now, Havre de Grace was getting ten pounds, but she still managed to hold off Blind Luck's tremendous late run and deserves respect here. She could easily hold off Blind Luck again if the pace scenario is right, and she just seems to be getting better and better.

Life at Ten, winner of the Beldame Stakes, will likely by the second choice. She showed a new dimension in the Beldame, rating just off the pace, and will be very dangerous if she does the same here.

Unrivaled Belle, second in the Beldame after setting the pace, is back for another try. She was only beaten two lengths by Life at Ten and defeated Rachel Alexandra here at Churchill Downs back in April, making her a major threat.

Persistently is another filly who defeated Rachel Alexandra. She rallied furiously in the ten furlong Personal Ensign Stakes to post a one-length upset over the Horse of the Year, and although she was a disappointing third in the Beldame, she should relish a return to two-turns at Churchill.

FILLY & MARE TURF

The foreign invaders here are very, very impressive. Of the eleven horses entered for the Filly & Mare Turf, six of them were bred outside the United States. Five of those have done most of their racing outside of the United States.

The favorite here is obviously Midday, winner of this race last year. She has won three of her four starts since then, culminating with an impressive victory in the Qatar Prix Vermeille (Fr-I) last time out. There is no reason to think that she won't win again.

Plumania will likely be the second choice, based off of her victory over males in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and her runner-up performance to Midday in the Prix Vermeille. She was disappointing in her last race, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, but should rebound off of that.

Throw in the Japanese invader Red Desire and you have yourself a very formidable group of invaders.

Among the longer shots, I like Harmonious. She former was extremely impressive in her last race, the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (gr. I) and should relish the eleven furlong distance of this race. She may very well be ready to run the best race of her life here at the Breeders' Cup.

JUVENILE FILLIES

A very difficult race to decipher, the Juvenile Fillies has drawn thirteen runners and will likely decide the two year old filly championship. The favorite will probably be A Z Warrior or Awesome Feather. The former comes into the Juvenile off of a very impressive victory in the Frizette Stakes (gr. I), whilst the latter enters off of a decisive eight length victory in the Mr Dear Girl Stakes at Calder Race Course to remain unbeaten in five starts.

Tell a Kelly could be a bit of a price based off of her runner-up effort to Rigoletta in the Oak Leaf Stakes last time out. Prior to that, however, she was very, very impressive while winning the Darley Debutante Stakes. Well behind Tell a Kelly in the Debutante was A Z Warrior.

Theyskens' Theory, a European shipper, could also offer decent odds. She is bred to like the dirt and has been keeping fine company in England.

This is a race that may come down to who gets the best trip.

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

The Filly & Mare Sprint division has been wide open all year long, and that only became more obvious when twenty-two fillies and mares were pre-entered for the fourth running of this race.

A good many horses could be sent off as the favorite, including Informed Decision, winner of this race last year. Dubai Majesty and Champagne d'Oro will also be well bet.

One very interesting runner who may offer good odds is Gabby's Golden Gal, who has not raced since upsetting the Santa Monica Handicap back in January. In that race, she defeated Proviso, who has won four straight grade I races since then. It would be incredible if Gabby's Golden Gal was to win this race off of a nine month layoff.

Rightly So and Sara Louise might also offer a decent price. Rightly So has yet to finish worse than third in eleven starts, while the very talented Sara Louise was a disappointing third in her last race. However, it was her first start off of a long layoff, and she will likely run better this time around.

Switch is also worth mentioning. Second to Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret Stakes last time out, she was disappointing in her only start on dirt but has beaten Blind Luck at Hollywood Park. Interestingly, she was bred by Calumet Farm, the same farm that bred Triple Crown winners Whirlaway and Citation, as well as seven other Kentucky Derby winners.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

Winter Memories will probably be the favorite here based off of her astonishing victory in the Miss Grillo last time out. However, the European shipper Together could make things very interesting. Last time out, she finished second in the Meon Valley Stud Fillies’ Mile to a very good filly named White Moonstone. Trained by Aidan O'Brien, I would not be surprised if she was the second choice.

New Normal performed very nicely when winning the Natalma Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion last time out, holding off the late-running More Than Real, who is back for another try here in the Breeders' Cup.

Fancy Point, who will likely be around 10-1, won the P.G. Johnson Stakes and although she only ran third in the Miss Grillo, deserves respect here.

Finally, there is Wyomia, who won the Mazarine Stakes at Woodbine last time out in a very impressive effort. However, she ran fifth in her only start on turf.

MARATHON

One of my favorite Breeders' Cup races, the Marathon has drawn a field of thirteen, although only twelve have first preference here. The favorite will probably be the Aidan O'Brien trained Bright Horizon, winner of a two-mile race in England. From the United States, Prince Will I Am, Giant Oak, and Eldaafer will all be well bet.

Atoned is one horse that I greatly respect who may be somewhere around 8-1. He finished a closing third to Eldaafer in the Turfway Park Fall Championship Stakes last time out over a mile and a half, and should relish the extra quarter of a mile.

Million Seller is another interesting runner. A four year old filly, she comes off of a neck victory in the Rosenna Stakes last time out. However, that race was only a mile and a sixteenth in distance. On the other hand, in 2009, she ran a very good second in a two mile allowance race against males.

It's going to be a great Breeders' Cup, as usual. Now, I must begin my more serious handicapping! I'll be back soon with additional analysis. Enjoy!

-Keelerman

HARMONIOUS WINS THE QUEEN ELIZABETH II CHALLENGE CUP STAKES!

I'll post the details of how the race was run later, but here are the top four finishers. . .

1 Harmonious
2 Zagora
3 Evening Jewel
4 Dade Babe

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- October 16th

As it is only three weeks until the Breeders' Cup, racing slows down quite a bit after this Saturday. However, because it is only three weeks until the Breeders' Cup, there are still a few last-minute preps available for those horses that didn't race over the last two weeks.

Four grade I races are scheduled for today, and three of them are at Woodbine. The Canadian International, the E.P. Taylor Stakes, and the Nearctic Stakes are the highlights of the Woodbine card, with each race drawing a large, solid field, with many of the runners coming from Europe. At Keeneland, there is the grade I Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes, for three year old fillies. All of the above mentioned races are on turf.

This week’s feature race shall be the Canadian International, a $2,000,000 1-1/2 mile turf event.

FEATURE RACE ---- THE CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL (Can-I)

I won't go into a huge amount of detail here today (after all, post time for the Nearctic Stakes is in about an hour and a half!) but I'll try to cover as much as possible as quickly as possible.

A field of nine has turned out for the 73rd running of this historic race, with the favorite being Redwood, winner of the Northern Dancer Stakes last month. It was his first start in the United States, and his fourth win overall from ten starts. A group III winner in England, the win was a major improvement for the son of High Chaparral. A win here could set the colt up nicely for a start in the Breeders' Cup Turf, should his connections choose to take that route.

Fifty Proof, 10-1 on the morning line, offers excellent value in my opinion. He finished second in the Northern Dancer last time out, beaten only a half-length by Redwood. Amazingly, all eight of his starts have been at Woodbine, where he has won four of his eight starts while finishing second three times. It's entirely possible that he could turn the tables on Redwood this time around.

Chinchon is the second choice on the morning line, and definitely deserves to be. Two starts back, he turned in a monster performance, coming from last to win the grade I United Nations Stakes at Monmouth over Take the Points and Winchester. Returned to France, where he has done the majority of his racing, yielded a last-of-six finish in the grade II Prix Foy, but it was a very good field and there is no reason why he shouldn't rebound today.

Marsh Side, a seven year old son of Gone West, is the third choice on the morning line. He looked great winning the Sky Classic Stakes (Can-II) by five lengths two starts back, but finished an extremely disappointing eighth in the Northern Dancer last time out, beaten ten lengths. If the ground turns up soft today, he will relish it and will have every chance at rebounding.

Al Khali and Simmard, first and third respectively in the Bowling Green Handicap (gr. II), make their first starts since that race. However, I don't believe that either of them are at their best over a mile and a half, and their odds (6-1 and 15-1) reflect this opinion.

Memorial Maniac, the longshot at 20-1, is one horse who has proven to be effective at longer distances, winning the Stars and Stripes (gr. II) over a mile and five eighths two starts back, but he finished fifth at 23-1 in the Northern Dancer.

Mores Wells, yet another shipper from Europe, is 12-1 on the morning line. He comes off of a victory in the group III Stockholm Cup International in Sweden. However, he has shown nowhere near good enough form to win this race.

Finally, we come to my pick. Joshua Tree, a three year old son of Montjeu, has made only five starts, winning two of them. At two, he was the impressive winner of the group II Royal Lodge Stakes, where he defeated future Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Vale of York. As a three year old, he has made two starts, finishing third to Rwilding and Midas Touch in the group II Great Voltigeur Stakes and fifth in the group I St. Leger Stakes, beaten less than six lengths by an exceptional group of horses that included Arctic Cosmos, Midas Touch, and Snow Fairy. Based on the fine company he has been keeping, I do believe that he should relish the conditions here today and could become the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Turf if he runs there next month.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Joshua Tree
2 Redwood
3 Chinchon
4 Fifty Proof
5 Marsh Side
6 Simmard
7 Al Khali
8 Memorial Maniac
9 Mores Wells

OTHER PICKS

E.P. TAYLOR STAKES (Can-I)

It’s a rather difficult race to decipher, but the morning line favorite, Shalanaya, looks pretty good. She has been up against some very good competition and has beaten Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Midday in the past.

One horse I really like is Lahaleeb, winner of this race last year. She will be running on Lasix for the first time, but has not hit the board in her five starts since last year’s E.P. Taylor.

Miss Keller should be right there in the stretch, based on her recent form. In her last start, the Canadian Stakes, she turned in a sharp performance to win by a length and three quarters. She loves this course and I would not be surprised to see her late kick carry her to victory.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Shalanaya
2 Miss Keller
3 Lahaleeb

NEARCTIC STAKES (Can-I)

The field is large (not to mention good!), and is even harder to decipher than the E.P. Taylor. However, I was able to come up with my pick fairly quickly.

I’m going to go with the three year old Bridgetown. He has made two starts this year, winning both of them. The first was the 5-1/2 furlongs Latham Stakes at Saratoga, where he held off the late-charging Flamin’ Hot for a one length victory.

His second start came in the Gilded Time Stakes at about 5-1/2 furlongs, where he easily defeated Partyallnightlong by two and a half lengths. This will be his first start against older horses, but I believe that he can handle them.

Here are my top three picks. . .

1 Bridgetown
2 Towzee
3 Fatal Bullet

QUEEN ELIZABETH II CHALLENGE CUP STAKES (gr. I)

The morning line favorite is Evening Jewel, but I do believe that she can be beaten. The most obvious choice to beat her is second choice Check the Label, but the horse I like is Harmonious. She is a grade I winner, having won the American Oaks earlier this year, and just failed to catch Evening Jewel after a nightmare trip in the nine furlong Del Mar Oaks. With a little better trip today, she should prove more than capable of upending Evening Jewel.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Harmonious
2 Evening Jewel
3 Check the Label

Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman