Joshua Tree wins another Canadian International

Two years ago, a three-year-old colt by the name of Joshua Tree shipped to Woodbine and pulled off a mild upset in the prestigious Pattison Canadian International (Can-I). Last year, he made a return trip and finished a strong second. Last Sunday, he made a third trip, and at odds of 4.35-1, held off a late run from Dandino to win the twelve-furlong turf by a half-length.

Ridden to victory by Frankie Dettori, Joshua Tree bounded out of the starting gate and quickly took command of the lead, rattling off very slow fractions of :25.51, :51.59, and 1:17.17 while being tracked by Air Support. Lay Time and Imperial Monarch were also fairly close to the pace, while Dandino, Forte Dei Marmi, and Prince Will I Am were content to race in mid-pack. Scalo, Reliable Man, and Wigmore Hall were the early trailers.

Entering the final quarter mile, Dettori asked Joshua Tree for his run, and the colt responded with a burst of acceleration that carried him to a two-length lead passing the eighth pole. Dandino put in a terrific late run on the far outside to loom a serious threat, but Joshua Tree found just enough left to hang on for a narrow victory, stopping the clock in 2:30.89 seconds over a course labeled good.

Forte Dei Marmi ran well to secure third, beaten just a length, while Wigmore Hall, Air Support, Imperial Monarch, Scalo, Reliable Man, Prince Will I Am, and Lay Time completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Marco Botti.

-Keelerman

Canadian International Entries: Imperial Monarch favored in deep field

Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-I) winner Imperial Monarch, 2011 Prix de Jockey Club (Fr-I) winner Reliable Man, 2010 Canadian Internaional (Can-I) winner Joshua Tree, and two-time Northern Dancer Stakes (gr. I) Wigmore Hall are among the leading contenders entered in Woodbine's $1,500,000 Pattison Canadian International (Can-I), which will be run on Sunday.

Leading American hopefuls in the twelve-furlong turf race include Al Khali, runner-up last time out to Wigmore Hall in the Northern Dancer Stakes, and Air Support, winner of the Bowling Green Handicap (gr. II) most recently. Prince Will I Am, winner of the Jamaica Handicap (gr. I) in 2010, will be attempting to pick up his first victory since February 2011.

PP	Horse	Weight	Jockey	Trainer	M. L. Odds
1	Lay Time	123	Jimmy Fortune	Andrew Balding	20-1
2	Dandino	126	Jim Crowley	J. R. Fanshawe	8-1
3	Forte Dei Marmi	126	John Velazquez	Roger Attfield	15-1
4	Scalo	126	Andrasch Starke	A. Woehler	12-1
5	Prince Will I Am	126	Ramon Dominguez	Michelle Nehei	20-1
6	Wigmore Hall	126	Jamie Spencer	Michael Bell	6-1
7	Reliable Man	126	Olivier Peslier	Alain De Royer-Dupre	4-1
8	Joshua Tree	126	Frankie Dettori	Marco Botti	5-1
9	Al Khali	126	Garrett Gomez	Bill Mott	10-1
10	Imperial Monarch	119	Ryan Moore	Aidan O'Brien	3-1
11	Air Support	126	Javier Castellano	Claude McGaughey, III	10-1

-Keelerman

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Contender Profile: PRINCE WILL I AM

Owner: Casa Farms I, LLC
Trainer: Michelle Nihei
Breeder: Roxanne Martin Stable Inc. and Anzac LLC
Expected Jockey: Unknown

RACE RECORD

Age 5

6th Bernard Baruch Handicap (gr. II)

Age 4

9th Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (gr. I)
3rd Pan American Stakes (gr. III)
1st Mac Diarmida Stakes (gr. II)

Age 3

1st William L. McKnight Handicap (gr. II)
2nd Breeders' Cup Marathon (gr. III) (disqualified and placed 10th)
1st Jamaica Handicap (gr. I)
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
3rd Allowance
5th Northern Dancer Stakes (gr. III)
2nd Allowance
5th Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. II)
8th Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)
2nd Allowance
9th Allowance

Age 2

1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Crytopclearance
	Victory Gallop
		Victorious Lil
Prince Will I Am
		Dynaformer
	Dyna's Dynamo
		Dynawite

To read what I have written about Prince Will I Am in the past, click here.

DOMINUS WINS THE BERNARD BARUCH HANDICAP!

Making his first start on turf, Dominus was able to pull off a mild upset in the $250,000 Bernard Baruch Handicap (gr. II) this afternoon at Saratoga, holding off a late bid from favored Data Link to win the 1 1/16th miles turf race by 1 1/2 lengths.

Ridden to victory by Julien Leparoux, Dominus got off to an excellent start and quickly seized command of the lead, easily slowing the pace down to a crawl when no one challenged him. Guys Reward was the only other runner to evenly remotely show interest in contesting the early lead, while Data Link was content to sit in third along the rail. Queen'splatekitten and Prince Will I Am were next in line, while Sky Blazer was the early trailer in the field of six after a poor start.

Through fractions of :24.29, :48.63, and 1:12.26, Dominus continued to lead the way, saving his energy for the stretch run. Data Link attempted to make a run at him turning for home, but when Leparoux asked his mount for run, Dominus responded with a burst of speed that carried him well clear of Data Link. The favorite was able to re-close the gap to some extent in deep stretch, but Dominus simply had too much left in the tank, coasting home a decisive winner in the good time of 1:40.32 seconds.

Sky Blazer rallied for third, while Guys Reward rounded out the superfecta. Prince Will I Am made a bold run along the inside turning for home before flattening out in what was his first start in nearly fifteen months.

The winner is trained by Todd Pletcher.

-Keelerman

Bernard Baruch Handicap Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $250,000 Bernard Baruch Handicap (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Saratoga. The 1 1/16th miles turf race has drawn a very evenly-matched field of eight, including grade I winner Data Link and Firecracker Handicap (gr. II) winner Guys Reward.

1 Data Link
2 Crimson China
3 Queen'splatekitten
4 Dominus
5 Guys Reward
6 Sky Blazer
7 Prince Will I Am
8 Alma d'Oro

Note: Alma d'Oro has been entered for the main-track only.

GET STORMY WINS THE TURF CLASSIC STAKES!

Get Stormy took the field gate-to-wire in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I) at Churchill Downs this afternoon, holding off late bids from Smart Bid and Doubles Partner to win the $500,000 event by a short length.

Under Ramon Dominguez, the colt set a moderate pace while maintaining an easy lead. Favored Prince Will I Am was far back in the early going.

Turning for home Get Stormy kicked clear of the field while finding another gear and kept going all the way to the wire, courageously holding off numerous other runners in the final furlongs. The final time was 1:50.81. Smart Bid finished a nose clear of Doubles Partner, with Rahystrada finishing fourth. Court Vision and Prince Will I Am were coming late, but not fast enough.

Battle of Hastings was pulled up on the first turn.

-Keelerman

ELDAAFER WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP MARATHON!

Eldaafer proved himself to be one of the best stayers in the country by outgrinding Prince Will I Am and Gabriel's Hill to win the third running of the Breeders' Cup Marathon.

Eldaafer sat off of the early pace set by Gabriel's Hill, who rattled off fractions of :24 4/5, :51 2/5, and 1:17 2/5. Romp was sitting in second, followed by Precision Break in the early going.

The positions continued pretty much unchanged for much of the race, although Giant Oak and Awesome Gem made strong early moves before both flattened out.

At the five-sixteenths pole, Prince Will I Am drifted out a bit and caused Romp to clip heels. The left foot of Romp's rider, Martin Garcia, came out of the stirrup but he managed to stay on his mount.

As the field turned for home, Gabriel's Hill still held the lead, but Eldaafer and Prince Will I Am were charging strongly. Eldaafer ended up in front by two lengths at the finish, with Prince Will I Am finishing second.

However, there was an inquiry concerning the incident at the five-sixteenths pole, and Prince Will I Am was disqualified and placed tenth. Therefore, Gabriel's Hill was moved up to second, A. U. Miner to third, and Giant Oak to fourth.

The final time was 2:59 3/5, which broke a fifteen year old track record.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP UPDATE 3

3:07;

It's now just two minutes to post time for the Marathon. Giant Oak is now the 4-1 favorite. Although this race has no championship implications, it's still a good race to watch.

They are loading into the gates now. . . I'll post the results in a moment.

3:17;

Well, Eldaafer proved just how good a stayer he is by merely outgrinding his opponents to win the Marathon by two lengths over Prince Will I Am and Gabriel's Hill.

There is an inquiry into the order of finish, however. It appears that runner-up Prince Will I Am drifted out and interfered with Romp, causing him to nearly clip heels. A. U. Miner is also part of the inquiry.

However, Eldaafer is not included in the inquiry and is the winner.

BREEDERS' CUP UPDATE 2

The odds have remained fairly steady. Prince Will I Am is still the favorite at 9-2.

The longest shot in the field is Million Seller at 62-1.

The Marathon is the first race of the $750,000 guaranteed all-Breeders' Cup Pick 6.

This is one of my favorite Breeders' Cup races, strictly because it is fourteen furlongs in distance. There are very few races of this length in the United States and it is a pleasant change from the typical shorter races that comprise most cards here in America.

2:58;

Giant Oak is now the favorite at 9-2. Prince Will I Am has risen to 5-1. Otherwise, the odds have remained fairly steady.

I'll be back shortly. . .

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP UPDATE 1

It is currently 32 minutes until the first of the fourteen Breeders' Cup races, the Marathon. The early wagering favorite is Prince Will I Am at 9-2. Giant Oak and Bright Horizon are both 5-1, with A. U. Miner at 6-1 and Awesome Gem 7-1.

The main track is listed as fast and the turf as firm. Here are the results so far. . .

Race 1: Glenwood Canyon
Race 2: China
Race 3: Noble's Promise
Race 4: Apart

The fifth race is the upcoming Marathon.

-Keelerman

PRINCE WILL I AM WINS THE JAMAICA!

Prince Will I Am rallied furiously from last to score a 9-1 upset victory in the grade I Jamaica Handicap.

Ridden by Jose Lezcano, Prince Will I Am sat far off the early pace set by Citrus Kid and Two Notch Road. Citrus Kid opened up a clear lead in the homestretch and appeared to be on his way to victory, but Prince Will I Am charged just a bit too fast.

Beau Choix finished tird, followed by Center Divider. Favored Krypton tired as the field turned for home.

-Keelerman

CHURCHILL DOWNS UPDATE 4

Colizeo hung on to win the Northern Dancer in a thrilling photo finish with Worldly! Vow to Wager finished third, with Max Silverhammer fourth. Prince Will I Am finished fifth, and Crider was last.

But there is an objection. Did Colizeo drift in front of Worldly?

Now the race is official. Colizeo is the winner.

And now it is just 22 minutes to the ninth race. I'll be back in about fifteen minutes!

-Keelerman

CHURCHILL DOWNS UPDATE 2

Gleam of Hope is the official winner! With a desperate late run, he closed off of slow fractions to defeat Physic Income by a half length. Asphalt finished third, followed by Our Douglas.

Guys Reward made a strong move to reach contention at the top of the stretch, but I don't think he had any running room. I believe he finished sixth.

What an exciting race! It was also the first Churchill Downs Stakes win for jockey E. T. Baird.

In the meantime, we are now only twelve minutes away from the eighth race, the Northern Dancer Stakes. Right this second, Prince Will I Am is the favorite at 8-5. Colizeo is the second choice at 2-1, and Worldy is 4-1. Crider is 9-2, Vow to Wager 11-1, and Max Silverhammer is 12-1.

It should be a good race. I would not be surprised at all if a grade I winner comes from this race. It's that solid.

I'll be back in a minute with my picks. . .

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- MAY 7th, 2010

Well, the Kentucky Derby is over and soon the Preakness will be too. A lot happened last week, and a lot will happen next week. But before we can get into next week, we have another Saturday to get through, a Saturday headlined by the Lone Star Derby and the Dwyer Stakes. I don't have a lot of time left, but let's take a quick look at what's happening around the country, beginning with the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park.

DWYER STAKES (gr. II) ---- Belmont Park, Race 9, May 8th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)

The nine furlong Dwyer Stakes, which is replacing the canceled Peter Pan Stakes, is Belmont Park's local prep for the Belmont Stakes. The race drew a field of seven, headlined by classy stakes runner Drosselmeyer and the extremely solid Turf Melody.

We'll begin with the number one horse, Carnivore. The son of Giant's Causeway comes off of a second place finish in an allowance race nine days ago to Nacho Friend, beaten two and three quarter lengths. Prior to that, he had run fifth behind Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial and competed in three maiden races, hitting the board in every one. He does have a bit of speed, and could threaten for the win here. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.

Then there is the number two horse, Drosselmeyer. The son of Distorted Humor won an allowance race back in January before running fourth in the Risen Star and third, beaten a length, in the Louisiana Derby. He will be the heavy favorite tomorrow and should run a winning race. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux and will carry 116 pounds.

This brings us to the number three horse, Turf Melody. The veteran campaigner will be making his tenth start at his tenth different racetrack. He is actually the only stakes winner in the field, winning the Springboard Mile Stakes last year. His connections actually considered running him in the Preakness Stakes next week, but they decided that this would be the easier spot and should he run well here, they could run him in the Belmont Stakes four weeks from now. Tomorrow, he will carry top weight of 121 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh.

Then there is the number four horse, Soaring Empire. The son of Empire Maker has hit the board in three of his four starts, his only poor showing coming in the Florida Derby back in March when he ran eighth, beaten fourteen lengths. In that race, he didn't get a very good trip, and looks ready to rebound here. He will be carrying 116 pounds and will be ridden by Eddie Castro.

But don't forget the number five horse, Remand! The son of Successful Appeal has made three starts so far, winning his maiden race, finishing off the board in an allowance race, and running third behind Eightfiveinafifty and Hurricane Ike in the Bay Shore Stakes last month. The 3-1 second choice, he can more than hold his own against this group. He will be carrying 116 pounds and will be ridden by John Velazquez.

This brings us to the number six horse, Codoy. The son of Bernstein has only won one race from eight starts, but has finished second four times, third once, and finished first in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes before being disqualified and placed second. However, his best race was probably his fifth place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, beaten seven and three quarter lengths by upset winner Stately Victor. And he was only beaten about three and a half lengths for second, and only two and a half for third. Not too bad. Although he is the 15-1 morning line longshot, I would not be surprised if he pulled the upset. It's worth noting that this will be his first start on dirt and perhaps he just hates synthetic and turf! Tomorrow, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by C. Velasquez.

Finally, we come to the number seven horse, Fly Down. The son of Mineshaft has only made four starts, winning twice and finishing third once. He comes into the Dwyer off of a troubled ninth place finish behind Mission Impazible, beaten six and three quarter lengths, in the Louisiana Derby last March. He has been training very nicely, breezing a half mile in :47 3/5 at Churchill Downs a few days ago and looks ready to roll. He is 7-2 on the morning line, will carry 116 pounds, and will be ridden by Jose Lezcano.

So who do I like? Here are my picks. . .

1 Drosselmeyer
2 Fly Down
3 Turf Melody
4 Soaring Empire
5 Remand
6 Carnivore
7 Codoy

It was a tough decision, but I'm going to go with Drosselmeyer. I think that he would have won the Louisiana Derby if he had gotten a slightly better trip, and he looks like the best horse here. Fly Down should also run a good race off of his Louisiana Derby disaster, and Turf Melody always runs well. Soaring Empire is capable of running a winning race, but I don't think that he is ready for a top performance. I'm going to take a stand against Remand and hope that he doesn't run like he did in the Bay Shore Stakes. Carnivore might run well, but I don't think so. And finally, Codoy is capable of running a winning race, but he has never started on dirt before and I don't think that he is going to fire.

Now I shall move on and discuss the. . .

LONE STAR DERBY (gr. III) ---- Lone Star Park, Race 9, May 8th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)

The mile and a sixteenth Lone Star Derby, which has always drawn very classy runners and turned out some very solid horses, came up a bit light this year. Six horses have been entered, and I'm afraid that none of them are stakes winners. To be honest, only three of them have competed in stakes. And only one has finished in the top three in a stakes.

But hey, it's not a terrible race and it actually drew a very fascinating field. Who knows? Maybe a super horse will emerge from this race. . .

Anyway, let's take a look at the entries, beginning with the number one horse Wando Redd.

Wando Redd, a son of Wando, is the only horse in the race to have placed in a stakes race, running second in the John Franks Memorial Sales Stakes at Evangeline Downs last August. He has only started once since then, breaking his maiden impressively Evangeline on April 7th. He is 12-1 on the morning line, which may be a bit high, and he will be ridden by C. Landeros. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as every other entry.

Then there is Gilded Woodman. The son of Gilded Crusader has only made one start, running eleventh, beaten nineteen and a quarter lengths, in a Maiden Special Weight race on the turf at Lone Star Park. I can't imagine why he is entered here, but that's what worries me. I almost think he might be sitting on a big race. But then, he ran eleventh only eight days ago, so who knows. He is 50-1 on the morning line and will be ridden by J Guzman.

This brings us to Thatlleaveamark. The son of Marked Tree has started ten times, winning twice. Fortunately, those two wins were in his last two races, and he might be ready to run a big one. At the very least he could hit the board. He is 30-1 and will be ridden by M. Escobar. This will be his first stakes race, his best race so far coming in a claiming race which he won two weeks ago.

Then there is the four horse, the 9-5 shot Game On Dude. Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of Awesome Again will try to give Baffert his fourth win in this race. Bob Baffert won the Lone Star Derby last year and has had considerable success in Texas. Game On Dude comes into the race off of a fifth place finish, beaten nineteen and a half lengths, in the Derby Trial Stakes two weeks ago. Prior to that, he had run seventh, beaten ten and three quarter lengths in the Florida Derby and had broken his maiden by three back in February. To be ridden by Martin Garcia, he can win this race with ease, just as he could run last. Who knows what he might do?

This brings us to the 8-5 favorite Henshin Hero. The son of Dance Master has started five times, winning three and running second once. His only off the board finish came in an allowance optional claiming race where he unseated his rider and did not finish the race. If you toss out that race, he is undefeated on dirt, as his only other loss came on the turf at Keeneland where he ran second in an allowance race to Flamin' Hot, a very consistent, classy allowance horse. I believe that Henshin Hero is ready to run an excellent race and can win easily. He will be ridden by B.J. Walker Jr.

Finally, we come to the number six horse Crider. 2-1 on the morning line, the son of Closing Argument has been racing very well in allowance and stakes company, finishing fourth to Dryfly in the Smarty Jones Stakes and fifth, beaten only five and a half lengths, in the Southwest Stakes behind Conveyance, Dublin, Cardiff Giant, and Mission Impazible. And when Cardiff Giant was disqualified, he was placed fourth. He comes into tomorrow's race off of a second to A Student in an allowance optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park after leading in the stretch. He has been training nicely and is capable of pulling off the upset. He will be ridden by A. Gryder.

It's was tough to decide, but here are my picks. . .

1 Crider
2 Henshin Hero
3 Game On Dude
4 Wando Redd
5 Thatlleaveamark
6 Gilded Woodman

I could have gone a lot of different ways here. I had originally thought about putting Henshin Hero on top, but decided to leave him off and hope that he and Wando Redd dual themselves into submission. Game On Dude is capable of running a great race, but I just don't think he is going to fire his best shot. So that's why I'm going with Crider. He has been proven on a less than perfect track and comes from off the pace, which could be very good here. Thatlleaveamark has an excellent chance at rallying for a piece of it, but I just don't think so. Gilded Woodman looks outclassed here, but I wouldn't be surprised if he hit the board or even won.

My last thought is this: I might end up changing my mind on the order of finish in the Lone Star Derby depending on how the weather looks. If I do decide to change my picks, I will put up a short post with my new order of finish. Just thought I'd mention it.

OTHER RACES TO WATCH

Yes, as usual, there is a pretty decent set of other races to watch, even though they probably won't affect the Preakness or the Belmont Stakes.

To begin, there is the Texas Stallion Stakes for three year old colts and geldings at Lone Star Park. On the undercard of the Lone Star Derby, the morning line favorite at 4-5 is Coyote Legend, and there is no way I'm going to pick against him. He has already beaten older males and won two stakes races at west and should be able to run very well tomorrow. Big Texas Daddy might give him a run for his money, but I don't think so.

Then there is the Texas Stallion Stakes for three year old fillies at Lone Star Park. The morning line favorite is Tin Top Cat, but Camille's Appeal and She's a Bond Girl are expected to make her earn it. I don't have a really good opinion on this race, but Tin Top Cat and Camille's Appeal look good.

Another good race is the seven furlong grade III Railbird Stakes out at Hollywood Park. The race has drawn a field of ten, and I must say that Tanda, All Due Respect, and Switch all look good and will probably fill out the trifecta. Tanda is probably the best filly in the race, but you can't ignore the rest of the field. It should be a great race.

Finally, there is a mile and a sixteenth allowance race at Churchill Downs on the ninth for three year olds. The morning line favorite is Prince Will I Am, and I can see him winning with ease, but he will likely receive stiff challenges from Colizeo and Berberis. But with Calvin Borel in the saddle, Prince Will I Am should get a very good trip.

And that is all. It's going to be a very enjoyable day of races, and within a few days we will have the Preakness Stakes and undercard to discuss. It's going to be great fun.

Enjoy the races! Go Super Saver!

-Keelerman