Jackson Bend vs. Uncle Mo -- The Kelso Handicap Showdown

At Belmont Park on Saturday, October 1st, six magnificent Breeders' Cup prep races will be run. All are "Win and You're In" prep races for the upcoming Breeders' Cup. Five of them are grade I events. But it is the lone grade II race, the Kelso Handicap, that could end up being the most intriguing.

The race is a one-mile, one-turn prep for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. To be perfectly honest, it has only recently become a dirt race, having been run for many years as a turf feature.

As it is a handicap race, the weights are announced prior to entries being taken. On September 25th, the weights for all of the nominated horses were announced. Here is a link to the Equibase weight list:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=HW-BEL-20111001-505071

To begin, let's narrow down the list of nominated horses to the ones that may actually run. We know that The Factor has other goals in mind, as do Trappe Shot, Dark Thunder, and Calibrachoa. The latter three are likely to start on the grade I Vosburgh Handicap on the same day as the Kelso. And To Honor and Serve won't be running, as he just won the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) on Saturday.

The main contenders in this race will most likely be Jackson Bend, Jersey Town, and Uncle Mo. Their respective weight assignments fascinate me. Jackson Bend has been weighted at 121 pounds, three pounds less than the 124 he carried to victory in the Forego Stakes (gr. I) at the beginning of the month. In that race, he defeated Jersey Town by 3 1/4 lengths.

But several things could be in Jersey Town's favor in the Kelso Handicap. For one thing, in the Forego, he was making only his second start of the year and while he did run very well, he just couldn't match strides with the winner. But he was carrying the same 124 pounds as Jackson Bend in that race, and in the Kelso he has been weighted at only 119. While the two-pound weight spread is unlikely to make a difference, Jersey Town will be making his third start off a layoff -- traditionally when horses turn in their very best performances. In addition, Jersey Town's biggest win came in last year's Hill 'N' Dale Cigar Mile (gr. I) -- which, as the name implies, is the same distance as the Kelso Handicap. With Jersey Town returning to arguably his best distance, there may be enough factors in his favor to shift the advantage in his favor.

Then there is the unknown factor, Uncle Mo. Whether or not Jersey Town defeats Jackson Bend may be rendered irrelevant if Uncle Mo wins by five. Which very well may happen.

Much to my surprise, Uncle Mo has been assigned only 117. I understand that under weight-for-age conditions, this is technically not a four-pound weight spread -- but weight-for-age scale or not, four pounds is four pounds. Uncle Mo is returning to the racetrack and distance where he nearly broke the stakes record in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last fall in perhaps the most impressive performances of his short career. The Kelso will be his second start off of a sickness-induced layoff, so he should be considerably sharper today than he was when second in the King's Bishop (gr. I) last month. While his pedigree leaves him questionable for longer races such as the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I), a one-turn mile is like a walk in the park for Uncle Mo. He should absolutely relish the conditions of the Kelso.

So the main question is, can Jackson Bend and Jersey Town give Uncle Mo -- the juvenile who was billed as a superstar; the second coming of Secretariat -- four and two pounds, respectively, and still hand him a defeat? Yes, they are in top form, and yes, they are older, and yes, Uncle Mo still has something to prove -- but Jackson Bend and Jersey Town have never been considered superstars.

It should be a terrific showdown, no matter who wins. But in my opinion, there is no way that Jackson Bend and Jersey Town can give Uncle Mo weight and beat him.

-Keelerman

Weekend Stakes Thoughts

It’s always interesting to see how nine months can change a crop of three-year-olds.

The results of Saturday’s racing action yielded several surprises and dominating performances. To begin with, there was the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) at Parx Racing.

When analyzing the past performances of the race, if one had merely looked at To Honor and Serve’s three-year-old season, you could not make a case for him being the favorite. After finishing a distant third in both the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. I) and Florida Derby (gr. I), he showed no races until August, when he ran a dismal sixth in the Amsterdam Stakes (gr. II). Sure, he had rebounded well to win an allowance race, but in the Pennsylvania Derby he would be facing the winner of the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and the 2-3 finishers in the Travers Stakes (gr. I).

But past performances do not tell the whole story. To Honor and Serve was one of the finest two-year-olds of 2010, winning both the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and the Remsen Stakes (gr. II). An injury early in his three-year-old season was responsible for the spring layoff, and the only reason he ran in the Amsterdam was because his trainer couldn’t find any other spots. His allowance win was a true measure of his ability, and he proved it by drawing away powerfully at the top of the stretch to win the Pennsylvania Derby in sharp fashion. He broke the stakes record, set in 1989, and stamped himself as a contender for the upcoming Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I).

In the Gallant Bloom Handicap (gr. II) at Belmont Park for fillies and mares, the favorite was the top older sprinter Tar Heel Mom, coming off of a runner-up effort in the Ballerina Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga. The second choice was a three-year-old filly named Pomeroys Pistol. As it turned out, Tar Heel Mom failed to threaten while Pomeroy’s Pistol drew away impressively in the stretch to score by four lengths in what was her second graded stakes victory.

Her win was by no means a surprise. After all, she was coming off of a pair of seconds in the Test Stakes (gr. I) and Prioress Stakes (gr. I) at seven and six furlongs, respectively. The 6-1/2 furlong distance of the Gallant Bloom seemed just about perfect, and there was no questioning the fact that she was in good form. But nine months ago, she was an unknown filly competing in Gulfstream Park’s Old Hat Stakes (gr. III). Here is what I wrote about her at the time:

“The longshots are Pomeroys Pistol (10-1) and Mis Vizcaya (15-1). The former has but one win from three starts, that coming in a maiden special weight race. Her two starts since then have yielded a fifth in the Sorority Stakes and a third in an allowance race tired in the final eighth of a mile after nearly taking the lead.”

Sent off at 34-1, Pomeroys Pistol tracked the pace and held on well to finish second, beaten 1 ¾ lengths by Final Mesa. It turned out to be a harbinger of things to come, for Pomeroys Pistol has continued to improve and has now turned into one of the finest female sprinters in the country.

The last race I shall mention here was the Gallant Bob Stakes, also at Parx. The favorite in the six-furlong sprint for three-year-olds was Poseidon’s Warrior, but the eventual winner was a 19-1 shot named Royal Currier. The colt was making his tenth start of the year, and was entering off of an attempted start in the Gilded Time Stakes, where he reared at the start and was pulled off. His two performances prior to that had yielded a distant third in the Select Stakes and a dismal last-of-eight effort in the Quick Call Stakes on turf. But as a juvenile, he had made six starts, winning four and finishing second in the other two. He made his three-year-old debut in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, where he finished a distant second behind Fort Hughes, who won the six furlong event in 1:08.33.

In the Gallant Bob, Royal Currier bounded away from post position five to set blazing fractions of :21.59 and :43.43. Amazingly, he did not stop, cruising away to a four length lead passing the eighth pole – running five furlongs in :54.96 – before hitting the wire on top by 3 ¾ lengths in track-record time of 1:07.51. The performance may have earned himself a start in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. I) in November.


Funny how much nine months can change things.

-Keelerman

Big Drama wins the Whippleton!

2010 Eclipse champion male sprinter Big Drama made a successful return to the races this afternoon at Calder Race Course, defeating three rivals in the $75,000 Whippleton Stakes by two lengths.

Under David Centeno, the colt, unraced since taking the Mr. Prospector Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park in January, broke smoothly from post position one and quickly settled into second as Accredit set a quick pace. The opening quarter mile was run in :22 seconds flat. Centeno guided Big Drama to the two path and put pressure on Accredit as the field moved toward the turn. Black Diamond Cat was sitting in second, while longshot Peace at Dawn was last after breaking alertly.

Around the far turn Big Drama boldly moved past Accredit while Centeno peeked back to see if anyone was coming. Entering the homestretch Big Drama appeared to be ready to coast away as Accredit faded down along the rail.

But Black Diamond Cat had some run left in him, and loomed boldly on the far outside. For a brief moment it looked as though he might succeed in pulling a tremendous upset, but Big Drama, after being struck a few times by Centeno's whip, easily turned back the challenge and coasted home under a hand ride to win in sharp fashion. The final time was 1:17 3/5 after fractions of :45 2/5 and 1:10 4/5.

Peace at Dawn came on to be second, while Accredit faded badly to finish last.

-Keelerman

HAVRE DE GRACE WINS THE WOODWARD!

Havre de Grace became only the second filly ever to win the $750,000 The Woodward Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga this afternoon, wearing down Rule in the stretch to win by a length.

Under Ramon Dominguez, the filly -- who was sent off as the narrow favorite at 2-1 -- broke alert and settled into third while three wide in the early stages. Rule, coming off of an arguably career-best performance in an overnight stakes, broke quickly and went straight to the lead. Mission Impazible raced in second toward the inside with Convocation and Havre de Grace together in third. They were followed by Mambo Meister, with Ice Box, Flat Out, and Giant Oak trailing the field.

The positions remained relatively unchanged until the far turn, where Havre de Grace began making a bid on the far outside. Flat Out was also gearing up right behind the filly, and Giant Oak was coming with his run too. But as the field entered the homestretch it was Rule still clinging tenaciously to the lead. But Havre de Grace was able to wear him down and hold off a late bid from Flat Out to win in good fashion.

Flat Out finished second, while Rule held third. Mission Impazible finished fourth, followed by Giant Oak, Ice Box, Mambo Meister, and Convocation. The final time was 1:49.18.

The victory put Havre de Grace into serious contention for Horse of the Year, which is more wide open this year than most. She will make her next start in either the Beldame Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park or Spinster Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland.

The Woodward Stakes Analysis & Picks

This afternoon at Saratoga, the battle for the title of Horse of the Year will continue when top contender for the award Havre de Grace takes on a solid field of seven colts in the The Woodward Stakes (gr. I).

In the nine furlong, $750,000 event, Havre de Grace is the 8-5 morning line favorite. A daughter of St. Liam, she is famous for her intense rivalry with champion three-year-old filly of 2010 Blind Luck.

This year, Havre de Grace is 3-for-4, including victories in the Apple Blossom (gr. I), Azeri Stakes (gr. III), and Obeah Stakes (gr. III). Most recently, she missed by a nose to Blind Luck in a thrilling edition of the Delaware Handicap (gr. II). A mid-pack runner with good tactical speed, she should be able to get a magnificent trip from gate six.

Flat Out looms her biggest competition as the 2-1 second choice. Impressive winner of the Suburban Handicap (gr. II) in July, he could only manage a second-place finish in the Whitney Handicap (gr. I) behind Tizway, but the track was playing extremely slow and unusual that day and it's hard to say whether it affected him or not. His career has been plagued by injuries, but he seems to be over everything now and is really in form.

Rule and Mission Impazible will likely be the early pacesetters. Rule is coming off of a narrow victory in an overnight stakes, in which he equaled in career-best Beyer Speed figure. A very quick horse, I expect him to break well and race away to set the early pace. Whether he can hang on to win is another question. Mission Impazible has been in terrific form this year, winning the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) earlier this spring and missing by a head in the grade I Stephen Foster Stakes. He was disappointing last time out in the Whitney while sixth, but again, the track was odd that day and I believe that he just didn't take to it. I'll believe he'll run much better today.

Giant Oak won the Donn Handicap (gr. I) back in February when he got a very quick pace to set up his late run, but I highly doubt that he will get a similar pace today. On the other hand, he always comes with a run and a good effort would not surprise me at all.

Mambo Meister is terrific when racing at Calder Race Course, but has never won anywhere else. Convocation often runs well in allowance company, but doesn't seem to be grade I stakes-caliber. Ice Box could run any kind of race -- he ran terrific in the Florida Derby (gr. I) and Kentucky Derby (gr. I) in the spring of 2010, but hasn't returned to that form since. He is coming off of a third in an allowance race behind Convocation, so unless he improves drastically I can't see him contending.

But the bottom line is, should Havre de Grace win this historic race -- a race that only one filly or mare, Rachel Alexandra, has ever won before -- she will have staked her claim for Horse of the Year, in my opinion. At this point, if Blind Luck wants the award, she's going to have to seek out Havre de Grace and beat her again. Time will tell if this happens.

My selections are:

1 Havre de Grace
2 Flat Out
3 Giant Oak
4 Mission Impazible

J.R.'s selections are:

1 Flat Out
2 Havre de Grace
3 Rule
4 Convocation

Undercard Race Selections

Forego Stakes (gr. I)

Keelerman

1 Regal Ransom
2 Jackson Bend
3 Sidney's Candy
4 Golddigger's Boy

J.R.

1 Jersey Town
2 Regal Ransom
3 Aikenite
4 Jackson Bend

Person Ensign Stakes (gr. I)

Keelerman

1 Acronym
2 Pachattack
3 Protesting
4 Ask the Moon

J.R.

1 Protesting
2 Ask the Moon
3 Pachattack
4 Tiz Miz Sue

-Keelerman

Could Acclamation be Horse of the Year?

Up until Sunday afternoon, I don't think anyone really considered Acclamation as a contender for Horse of the Year. In the first 23 starts of his career, he went to the winner's circle on only four occasions. Up until recently, he was billed as a "Hollywood Park turf course specialist,” as his two lone stakes wins came over that surface last year in the Jim Murray Memorial Handicap (gr. II) and the Charles Whittingham Memorial Stakes (gr. I). Elsewhere, he was just an average allowance-level horse. This image was further engrained in the minds of horse racing fans when he returned to Hollywood this spring and won those two races again, despite the fact that he was coming off of some very poor efforts.

Furthermore, he was considered a marathon horse -- incapable, apparently, of winning at any distance shorter than ten furlongs. Twelve furlongs was probably his best distance. His abilities were often chalked up to the fact that in those long races, he was capable of rattling off twenty-four second quarters over and over and over again. In other words, he was supposedly unable to set a quick pace (i.e. :23 and change) and hang around for the finish. Perhaps this is still true.

But the funny thing about twenty-four second quarters is that the longer you can sustain them, the tougher you get. No one is afraid of a horse that can sustain twenty-four second quarters for six furlongs, for that equates to an unremarkable time of 1:12 flat. Top-level sprint races are usually run in 1:10 or less.

But a horse that can keep up five of those quarters -- whoa. That equates to ten furlongs in a spectacular 2:00 flat. And at a mile and a half, that comes out to 2:24. For the record, Secretariat is the only horse to have ever run a mile and a half that fast on a dirt track. So as you can see, those twenty-four second quarters can come back to haunt anyone who disregards them. Twirling Candy and Game On Dude found that out on Sunday in the 21st running of the Pacific Classic.

It wouldn’t be fair to state that Acclamation gave his rivals no warning of his impending monster performance. He did. In the Eddie Read Stakes (gr. I), going nine furlongs on Del Mar's turf course, Acclamation dispelled two myths regarding his abilities. 1: He proved that he can win a major race on a surface other than Hollywood's turf course. 2: He proved that he is not strictly a marathoner. But, many argued, he got a very easy lead in the Eddie Read. His winning effort was more of a fluke performance due to the bizarre pace scenario. The closers were unable to close!

Then, Acclamation was entered in the Pacific Classic. As we all know, the Pacific Classic is not a turf race. It is held over Del Mar's Polytrack, a surface on which Acclamation had only raced once. In an allowance race back when he was three -- in the summer of 2009. Now, he was being asked to do so in the meet's premiere event, going a mile and a quarter against the likes of the brilliant Twirling Candy and the tough-as-nails Game On Dude. For a horse that was, up until recently, a Hollywood Park turf course-marathoner, the Pacific Classic would seemed to be a goal completely and utterly out of reach. But as Acclamation proved in the Eddie Read, he is not that kind of a horse. In the Pacific Classic, he would reaffirm that fact with another amazing performance.

At 5:20 PM Pacific Time, the Del Mar starting gate opened and released nine of the best older males in California on their way down the homestretch in the ninth race of the day, the feature of the day, one of the biggest races in the country -- The Pacific Classic. Acclamation got off to a quick start from post position five and rocketed to the lead under Patrick Valenzuela. Game On Dude, winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I), charged up to take second while favored Twirling Candy rated back in third. Tres Borrachos, upset winner of the San Diego Handicap (gr. II), was in fourth early on, followed by Setsuko,  Don Cavallo, Jeranimo, Stately Victor, and longshot Quindici Man.

The opening quarter mile was run in :24.57. Acclamation had succeeded in getting to the lead and slowing the pace down. A :24.57 opening quarter was well within his range. But Game On Dude and Twirling Candy made no attempts to press him into going faster.

Acclamation reached the half-mile pole in :48.65. He had run his second quarter in :24.08. He ran six furlongs in 1:12.88 for a third quarter in :24.23. Still, Game On Dude and Twirling Candy were content to track him in second and third. But their tasks were getting harder with every :24 second quarter Acclamation churned out.

Game On Dude made his bid with a quarter mile to run, as the field rounded into the homestretch. Under Chantal Sutherland, he boldly dove to the inside as Acclamation drifted off the fence and tried gamely to make a run. But Acclamation had turned in a fourth quarter in :23.73. He was just getting his engine revved up and turned back Game On Dude's bid with ease.

The real threat was Twirling Candy, charging on the far outside under Joel Rosario. Like Acclamation, he had a myth to dispel. After losing both the Santa Anita Handicap and the Hollywood Gold Cup -- as the heavy favorite on both occasions -- he was starting to be billed as a brilliant miler/nine furlong horse incapable of winning a top class race at ten furlongs. As he set his sights on the front-running Acclamation and charged after him, those notions slowly began to evaporate. At the same time, Acclamation was finally shedding the image of being nothing but a turf specialist. As he charged down the Del Mar homestretch, he metamorphosized, from merely a good horse into—arguably—the leading older male in the country.

I will admit right now that I had doubts in Acclamation going into this race. I was one of those people who argued that his Eddie Read win was due to the pace setup and his easy lead. I doubted his ability to handle the likes of Twirling Candy and Game On Dude. But I shall also admit that I have been fond of him since last year, and always cheer him on whenever he runs. And so while I was cheering for him as the field turned for home, I believed there was no way that he could possibly hold off the onrushing Twirling Candy.

I watched as the two horses passed the eighth pole together. I saw Twirling Candy draw up alongside. I saw them pass the sixteenth pole. I saw Acclamation still in front. And I saw a horse that was not going to give in.

Frankly, the final 110 yards of the race were unimportant. It was clear from that point out that Acclamation was not going to let Twirling Candy pass, and he did not. He hit the finish line in front by a head, stopping the clock in a phenomenal track-record time of 2:00.61. Granted, the Polytrack surface is only six years old, but it is still a remarkable time that compares favorably with the other twenty clockings of the Pacific Classic. He closed his final quarter mile in -- what else? -- :24 seconds flat.

Twirling Candy ran admirably in defeat, and in my opinion, he once and for all trounced the notion that he cannot get a mile and a quarter. Horses who cannot get a mile and a quarter do not get beaten a head in grade I races run in track record times. And for the record, Twirling Candy closed his final half-mile in roughly :47.13 seconds, and his final quarter in :23.60 -- remarkable closing fractions that would win many races. But Acclamation proved just as capable, and in the end, superior under the conditions of the race.

The victory has moved Acclamation into the discussion for Horse of the Year; a discussion that had previously never included him. His credentials are as good or better than any other horse’s in the country. He has three grade I wins and a grade II this year. Other top contenders for the award are Tizway, winner of the Metropolitan (gr. I) and Whitney (gr. I) Handicaps, and Stay Thirsty, winner of the Travers (gr. I), Jim Dandy (gr. II), Gotham (gr. II), and runner-up in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). Then of course, there are the two fillies Blind Luck (Vanity Handicap (gr. I) and Delaware Handicap (gr. II)) and Havre de Grace (Apple Blossom (gr. I), Obeah Stakes (gr. III), and Azeri Stakes (gr. III), pointing for the Woodward (gr. I)). As the connections of Acclamation have announced that he is unlikely to run on dirt, Acclamation would have to make his final claim for Horse of the Year on turf, perhaps in the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I) in November. Horses who predominately race on turf do not often win Horse of the Year. But in a year without a real leader in the older males or three-year-old colts division, another grade I victory for Acclamation would make his resume very, very impressive. Let's see what happens during the rest of the year.

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S BREEDERS' CUP RANKINGS - August 31st, 2011

(Rankings for the Juvenile races will begin in mid-September. Also, note that European horses that have been confirmed as unlikely to ship for the Breeders' Cup, such as Frankel and Midday, have not been included in these lists. Horses may only appear on one list at a time.)

CLASSIC

1 Flat Out
2 Twirling Candy
3 Stay Thirsty
4 Tizway
5 Game On Dude

TURF

1 Cape Blanco
2 So You Think
3 Acclamation
4 Bourbon Bay
5 Winchester

MILE

1 Goldikova
2 Gio Ponti
3 Immortal Verse
4 Courageous Cat
5 Sidney's Candy

SPRINT

1 Euroears
2 The Factor
3 Big Drama
4 Trappe Shot
5 Smiling Tiger

LADIES' CLASSIC

1 Havre de Grace
2 Blind Luck
3 Royal Delta
4 It's Tricky
5 Ultra Blend

FILLY AND MARE TURF

1 Stacelita
2 Misty for Me
3 Keertana
4 Winter Memories
5 Hungry Island

DIRT MILE

1 Uncle Mo
2 Soaring Empire
3 Jackson Bend
4 Shackleford
5 Awesome Gem

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

1 Switch
2 Sassy Image
3 Turbulent Descent
4 Tar Heel Mom
5 Hot Summer

TURF SPRINT

1 Ben’s Cat
2 Bridgetown
3 Unzip Me
4 Regally Ready
5 Chamberlain Bridge

MARATHON

1 Sanagas
2 A.U. Miner
3 Eldaafer
4 Drosselmeyer
5 Birdrun