At Belmont Park on Saturday, October 1st, six magnificent Breeders' Cup prep races will be run. All are "Win and You're In" prep races for the upcoming Breeders' Cup. Five of them are grade I events. But it is the lone grade II race, the Kelso Handicap, that could end up being the most intriguing.
The race is a one-mile, one-turn prep for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. To be perfectly honest, it has only recently become a dirt race, having been run for many years as a turf feature.
As it is a handicap race, the weights are announced prior to entries being taken. On September 25th, the weights for all of the nominated horses were announced. Here is a link to the Equibase weight list:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=HW-BEL-20111001-505071
To begin, let's narrow down the list of nominated horses to the ones that may actually run. We know that The Factor has other goals in mind, as do Trappe Shot, Dark Thunder, and Calibrachoa. The latter three are likely to start on the grade I Vosburgh Handicap on the same day as the Kelso. And To Honor and Serve won't be running, as he just won the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) on Saturday.
The main contenders in this race will most likely be Jackson Bend, Jersey Town, and Uncle Mo. Their respective weight assignments fascinate me. Jackson Bend has been weighted at 121 pounds, three pounds less than the 124 he carried to victory in the Forego Stakes (gr. I) at the beginning of the month. In that race, he defeated Jersey Town by 3 1/4 lengths.
But several things could be in Jersey Town's favor in the Kelso Handicap. For one thing, in the Forego, he was making only his second start of the year and while he did run very well, he just couldn't match strides with the winner. But he was carrying the same 124 pounds as Jackson Bend in that race, and in the Kelso he has been weighted at only 119. While the two-pound weight spread is unlikely to make a difference, Jersey Town will be making his third start off a layoff -- traditionally when horses turn in their very best performances. In addition, Jersey Town's biggest win came in last year's Hill 'N' Dale Cigar Mile (gr. I) -- which, as the name implies, is the same distance as the Kelso Handicap. With Jersey Town returning to arguably his best distance, there may be enough factors in his favor to shift the advantage in his favor.
Then there is the unknown factor, Uncle Mo. Whether or not Jersey Town defeats Jackson Bend may be rendered irrelevant if Uncle Mo wins by five. Which very well may happen.
Much to my surprise, Uncle Mo has been assigned only 117. I understand that under weight-for-age conditions, this is technically not a four-pound weight spread -- but weight-for-age scale or not, four pounds is four pounds. Uncle Mo is returning to the racetrack and distance where he nearly broke the stakes record in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last fall in perhaps the most impressive performances of his short career. The Kelso will be his second start off of a sickness-induced layoff, so he should be considerably sharper today than he was when second in the King's Bishop (gr. I) last month. While his pedigree leaves him questionable for longer races such as the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I), a one-turn mile is like a walk in the park for Uncle Mo. He should absolutely relish the conditions of the Kelso.
So the main question is, can Jackson Bend and Jersey Town give Uncle Mo -- the juvenile who was billed as a superstar; the second coming of Secretariat -- four and two pounds, respectively, and still hand him a defeat? Yes, they are in top form, and yes, they are older, and yes, Uncle Mo still has something to prove -- but Jackson Bend and Jersey Town have never been considered superstars.
It should be a terrific showdown, no matter who wins. But in my opinion, there is no way that Jackson Bend and Jersey Town can give Uncle Mo weight and beat him.
-Keelerman
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