Super Saturday, Breeders' Cup Preview Weekend, The Greatest Day in American Racing Outside of The Breeders' Cup -- call it what you like. This weekend is without a doubt one of the greatest weekends of racing anywhere in the world, and definitely one of my personal favorites.
Feast your eyes on this list of races scheduled to be run today alone:
Belmont Park
Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I)
Beldame Stakes (gr. I)
Vosburgh Stakes (gr. I)
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I)
Flower Bowl Stakes (gr. I)
Kelso Handicap (gr. II)
Santa Anita
Norfolk Stakes (gr. I)
Lady's Secret Stakes (gr. I)
Goodwood Stakes (gr. I)
Yellow Ribbon Stakes (gr. I)
Parx Racing
Cotillion Stakes (gr. II)
Hoosier Park
Indiana Derby (gr. II)
Indiana Oaks (gr. II)
The list of horses competing in these races is equally impressive. Major Breeders' Cup contenders such as Flat Out, Stay Thirsty, A.U. Miner, Drosselmeyer, Havre de Grace, Royal Delta, Life At Ten, Euroears, Trappe Shot, Giant Ryan, Cape Blanco, Teaks North, Winchester, Stacelita, Uncle Mo, Jackson Bend, Jersey Town, Drill, Creative Cause, Blind Luck, Zazu, Ask the Moon, Ultra Blend, Champagne d'Oro, Coil, Awesome Gem, Game On Dude, Dubawi Heights, Malibu Pier, Harmonious, Cozi Rosie, It's Tricky, Plum Pretty, Shackleford, Caleb's Posse, and A Z Warrior. In addition, four-time grade I winner Acclamation may run in the Goodwood, although it is more likely that he will run in the grade II Clement Hirsch Turf Championship Stakes tomorrow afternoon on the turf.
And as if that wasn't enough, France's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is scheduled for tomorrow, along with its spectacular undercard featuring three-time Breeders' Cup Mile winner Goldikova. In the United States, the Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita, the above-mentioned Clement Hirsch Stakes, and a quartet of graded stakes races for two-year-old at Belmont further add to the incredible depth of this weekend's racing lineup.
The following are my brief thoughts on each race, as well as my selections. J.R. shall also post his picks, and all of these races shall be included in our Breeders' Cup Handicapping Contest.
Let's handicap!
Jockey Club Gold Cup
As long as it doesn't rain, I see this race as a two-horse battle between Flat Out and Stay Thirsty, strongly favoring the latter. Flat Out has been racing against some of the best horses in the country, including leading older male Tizway and superstar filly Havre de Grace. His pair of runner-up efforts in the Whitney and the Woodward (both grade I) were excellent performances, but his best race came over this same racetrack in the Suburban Handicap (gr. II) earlier in the summer. Stay Thirsty is coming off of strong wins in the Travers (gr. I) and Jim Dandy (gr. II), but will be facing older horses for the first time and will likely have to turn in a career-best effort to defeat Flat Out. A. U. Miner loves distance and may get up for third on stamina alone.
Keelerman: Flat Out, Stay Thirsty, A. U. Miner
J.R.: Stay Thirsty, Flat Out, Rodman
Beldame Stakes
Once again, I see this race as a two-horse battle. The heavy favorite will be Havre de Grace, who has won four of her five races this year and won the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) over Flat Out in her last start. There is no reason to believe that she won't run back to that effort, as all indications are that she has came out of that race in excellent fashion. Possibly the only horse that could pose a threat is the three-year-old filly Royal Delta, who absolutely dominated her rivals when winning the Alabama Stakes (gr. I) by 5 1/2 lengths back in August. While it is clear that she needs to run a still better race to threaten Havre de Grace, Royal Delta has only made six starts so far and may simply be improving rapidly right now. I wouldn't toss her out. Life At Ten won this race a year ago, but has not run well since. Most recently, she finished third, 18 1/2 lengths behind Blind Luck and Havre de Grace in the Delaware Handicap (gr. II). Nevertheless, with blinkers on today and little to no pace, the front-running mare should be at least good enough for third.
Keelerman: Havre de Grace, Royal Delta, Life At Ten
J.R.: Havre de Grace, Royal Delta, Banker's Buy
Kelso Handicap (gr. II)
With the scratch of Sangaree, only four horses will head to post here. The favorite will likely be Uncle Mo, last year's champion two-year-old male who won the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) here at Belmont as a juvenile in near stakes-record time. Sickness caused him to miss the entire Triple Crown and a couple of months afterward, but when returned to the races in the seven-furlong King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) he showed few signs of rust and missed by just a nose. He should be sharper today and I expect him to run a terrific race here under only 117 pounds. Jackson Bend is coming off of back-to-back sprint wins at Saratoga, including the Forego Stakes (gr. I), but I'm not sure that he can handle Uncle Mo at a mile. Jersey Town finished a good second to Jackson Bend in the Forego and should be ready for his best race while making his third start off of a lengthy layoff.
Keelerman: Uncle Mo, Jersey Town, Jackson Bend
J.R.: Jersey Town, Uncle Mo, Jackson Bend
Vosburgh Stakes (gr. I)
This race lost a lot of luster with the scratch of last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I) winner Big Drama, but still has many stars still in the field. Favoritism could end up going to Trappe Shot, who is 3-for-3 at Belmont with a win in the True North Handicap (gr. II) earlier this year his best performance. In his last start, he charged hard at the finish but missed by a nose to Sean Avery in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I) at Saratoga. Returning to his favorite racetrack and breaking from the far outside, he could be very tough to beat. Euroears has turned into a monster since being switched to sprints by trainer Bob Baffert, sandwiching victories in the Palos Verdes Stakes (gr. II) and the Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. I) last time out around a strong runner-up effort in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-I) in Dubai. Not bad for a seven-year-old. Force Freeze dominated Jersey Town in the Teddy Drone Stakes at Monmouth, but is admittedly taking a large step up in class. Giant Ryan has won five straight, including the Smile Sprint Handicap (gr. II), but he too is facing better today.
Keelerman: Euroears, Trappe Shot, Force Freeze
J.R.: Force Freeze, Trappe Shot, Apriority
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I)
Barring a large upset, this race should mark the third consecutive grade I victory for the Irish invader Cape Blanco. A pretty good horse in Europe, he has found American competition easier to defeat in his two transatlantic voyages to the U.S., handing three-time Eclipse award winner Gio Ponti a pair of defeats in the Man O' War Stakes (gr. I) and the Arlington Million (gr. I). He is already proven at a mile-and-a-half and while it may not be his best distance, he will most likely get the trip better than his American rivals. Winchester looks to be the best of the home team, having won this race last year over turf star Paddy O' Prado. Last time out, he defeated a solid field in the 12 furlong Sword Dance Invitational (gr. I) at Saratoga, so we know he's in good form. The question is, can he beat Cape Blanco? I was going to include Teaks North as a serious contender here, but I have just learned that he has been scratched. Mission Approved should relishes soft going, and seeing that several races have been taken off the turf I think that he will get it.
Keelerman: Cape Blanco, Winchester, Dean's Kitten
J.R.: Cape Blanco, Mission Approved, Winchester
Flower Bowl Stakes (gr. I)
Stacelita figures to be the heavy favorite here off of a strong win in the Beverly D. Stakes (gr. I) at Arlington Park last time out. Prior to that victory, she had finished a strong third against colts in the United Nations Stakes (gr. I). But one must admit that she got a very easy trip at Arlington, rating along the fence all the way around and getting through on the rail for a narrow victory. Nevertheless, it's hard to look past her. Aruna and Senada have scratched, so only five horses will challenge Stacelita. The second choice is Deluxe, a Juddmonte Farms homebred who was a solid competitor in Europe before being shipped to the barn of Bill Mott in the United States. In her American debut, she was beaten just a head in Saratoga's Parid Opera Stakes going a mile, a distance that is probably to short for her. She should relish the ten-furlong distance of today's race and may be good enough to defeat Stacelita. Emerald Beech has won four straight, including the Glens Falls Handicap (gr. III) over a soft Saratoga turf course, but this is a step up in class. Gitchee Goomie is a consistent New York-bred who has finished in the top three in twelve of her thirteen starts, and may just be good enough to get a piece.
Keelerman: Deluxe, Stacelita, Emerald Beech
J.R.: Stacelita, Dynaslew, Deluxe
Yellow Ribbon Stakes (gr. I)
This is without a doubt one of the most competitive races of the weekend. The morning line favorite is Dubawi Heights, who set the pace in the Beverly D. Stakes (gr. I) before being passed only by Stacelita in the stretch. Winner of the Gamely Stakes (gr. I) earlier this year, she figures to go to the lead and dare anyone to catch her. Malibu Pier won a pair of graded stakes events on the Santa Anita turf last spring, and while she could only manage a fifth in the Gamely, she came back strongly to win the Beverly Hills Handicap (gr. III) over Cozi Rosie and finish second to that one in the John C. Mabee Stakes (gr. II) despite having her jockey lose his whip in the stretch. Cozi Rosie, in turn, has finished in the top three in every one of her last seven races, most recently winning the John C. Mabee as mentioned above and figures to love the ten furlong distance of the Yellow Ribbon. Harmonious finished fourth in the John C. Mabee, but was closing furiously and should be at her best third off a layoff. In addition, she should relish the Yellow Ribbon's distance. City to City won the Palomar Handicap (gr. II) last time out in sharp fashion. Cambina is the lone three-year-old in the field, most recently finishing fourth in the Del Mar Oaks (gr. I) while closing a simply unbelieveable amount of ground in the final eighth of a mile. Winner of the American Oaks (gr. I) at ten furlongs earlier this year, I love her chances here. Even 20-1 shot Turning Top has a chance, for her last to races have been sneakily good and she did finish second in this race last year.
Keelerman: Cozi Rosie, Dubawi Heights, Cambina
J.R.: Harmonious, Cozi Rosie, Malibu Pier
Goodwood Stakes (gr. I)
Assuming Acclamation does scratch and head for the Clement Hirsch, this leaves Coil, Game On Dude, and Awesome Gem as the favorites. Coil, a three-year-old facing elders for the first time, won the Haskell Invitational (gr. I) in sharp fashion but subsequently finished a very poor last in the Travers Stakes (gr. I). Who knows what happened in the Travers, but if you excuse that performance he look as good as any here. Game On Dude won the Santa Anita Handicap here back in the spring and does love dirt, but he may be better with more distance than the Goodwood offers. Eight-year-old veteran gelding Awesome Gem is having a great year and enters off of a very sharp victory in the Longacres Mile Handicap (gr. III) at Emerald Downs. He should be coming late.
Keelerman: Coil, Awesome Gem, Game On Dude
J.R.: Preamble, Coil, Golden Itiz
Lady's Secret Stakes (gr. I)
It's hard to look past Blind Luck, who is arguably the only horse in the country capable of defeating Havre de Grace, but despite her marvelous credentials she may be vulnerable here. After all, the speed-favoring nature of this Santa Anita main track and the fact that she didn't run too well here back in the spring don't exactly inspire confidence in her ability to win this race. One fact that does inspire confidence is that she always comes with her late run no matter what the circumstances, and it's hard to ignore that. Nevertheless, she hasn't raced since July and this race may be too short for her, so I think that Zazu will pull off the upset. She ran very well here in the spring and has been quite consistent this year, most recently missing by a neck in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. I) against her elders. I feel she will get the jump on Blind Luck and narrowly stem her off. Ask the Moon won both the Ruffian Handicap (gr. I) and the Personal Ensign Handicap (gr. I) at Saratoga, but crawled home both times and had never been a graded stakes horse before the Saratoga meet. While she could very easily get an easy lead and hold on for victory, I'm not sure that she can handle this caliber of competition.
Keelerman: Zazu, Blind Luck, Ultra Blend
J.R.: Ask the Moon, Blind Luck, Zazu
Norfolk Stakes (gr. I)
Drill and Creative Cause look like the two to beat here. They are both coming out of the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (gr. I), where Drill won narrowly in a traffic-filled stretch run while Creative Cause ended up a narrowly beaten third -- although he did get placed second through the disqualification of the original runner-up. That traffic may have cost Creative Cause the victory in my opinion, so I'm going to say that today the tables will be turned. Basmati finished fifth, beaten just a length and a half in the Del Mar Futurity, so he should have every chance here despite the fact that he is still a maiden.
Keelerman: Creative Cause, Drill, Basmati
J.R.: Basmati, Drill, Creative Cause
Cotillion Stakes (gr. II)
It's Tricky and Plum Pretty met twice during the Saratoga meet, with the former defeating the latter on both occasions. Plum Pretty will be hoping that the third time is the charm when the duo meet yet again in Parx Racing's Cotillion Stakes. It's Tricky won the Coaching Club Amertican Oaks (gr. I) at Saratoga before being beaten decisively into second by Royal Delta in the Alabama Stakes. Plum Pretty won the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) narrowly in the spring, but has not won since and ran very poorly in the Alabama. Given the circumstances, I believe that It's Tricky looks like the better of the two and should win without a lot of trouble. Buster's Ready won the Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park before finishing fourth in the Coaching Club American Oaks most recently. Love and Pride has won three of four for Todd Pletcher and looks like a promising young filly.
Keelerman: It's Tricky, Plum Pretty, Love and Pride
J.R.: It's Tricky, Love and Pride, Plum Pretty
OTHER PICKS
Indiana Derby (gr. II)
Keelerman: Shackleford, Wilburn, Caleb's Posse
J.R.: Wilburn, Shackleford, Decisive Moment
Indiana Oaks (gr. II)
Keelerman: A Z Warrior, Daisy Devine, Nasty Rumor
J.R.: A Z Warrior, Nast Rumor, Withgreatpleasure
Enjoy the races everyone! I shall be posting the results of these races as they occur.
-Keelerman
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