BREEDERS’ CUP COUNTDOWN – October 8th, 2011

Another terrific weekend of major Breeders’ Cup prep races are scheduled to be run over the next two days, including some of the country’s biggest juvenile races in the Champagne and Frizette Stakes (both grade I). It going to be an exciting day. Let’s handicap!

Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (gr. I)

This race is led by last year’s winner and three-time Eclipse champion GIO PONTI. The remarkable six-year-old horse has done a lot of things in a long career, but some claim that he has lost a step with age, as he has not won a race since last year’s Turf Mile. However, I believe that it has been circumstances that have prevented Gio Ponti from visiting the winners circle more frequently, and I see no reason why he won’t win this race again and set himself up for a run at the Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. I). SIDNEY’S CANDY is the second choice, having turned in some good efforts in races like this before, and should run much better than he did in a failed dirt sprint experiment last time out. SOCIETY’S CHAIRMAN ran second in this race a year ago and is coming into it this year in arguably better form. DANCE AND DANCE ran huge in the Woodbine Mile (gr. I) last month, finishing sixth beaten just 1 ¾ lengths after breaking in the air and encountering serious stretch traffic. European-invader ZOFFANY has kept good company in Europe, finishing a close second to superstar Frankel in the St. James Palace Stakes, and should definitely be in contention. WISE DAN has won two straight mile races, including the Firecracker Handicap (gr. II) on turf, but this is a pretty big step up in class. GET STORMY won a pair of grade I’s early this year, but some minor injuries have plagued him during the last few months. However, he should be back in good form now and has a grade I win going a mile over this turf course already.

Keelerman: Gio Ponti, Dance and Dance, Zoffany

J.R.: Dance and Dance, Society’s Chairman, Gio Ponti

Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I)

MAJESTIC CITY is the morning line favorite off of three sprint victories and a strong second (disqualified to third) in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I), but he has shown some potential distance limitations and this may be too far for him. SHARED PROPERTY and TAKE CHARGE INDY finished 1-2 in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III), so both of them have already run well in a route race and over a synthetic track. GUNG HO won the Sunday Silence Stakes on turf with an impressive late run – closing his final quarter in under :23 seconds – and I believe that he will run just as well here today, for he did break his maiden over a synthetic track. OUR ENTOURAGE broke his maiden routing on turf for Todd Pletcher, and may run well at a price.

Keelerman: Gung Ho, Our Entourage, Shared Property

J.R.: Take Charge Indy, Shared Property, Majestic City

First Lady Stakes (gr. I)

A pair of three-year-old fillies are the morning line favorites for this one-mile turf event. They are TOGETHER, a solid European stakes competitor, but one who has not won since July 2010, and THEYSKEN’S THEORY, another European who has had much better luck this year and recently finished second to Winter Memories in the Garden City Stakes (gr. I). However, they will be up against some solid older fillies including WASTED TEARS, who won seven straight races in 2009 and 2010. A true turf miler, her last two losses can be forgiven as she was attempting to win major races going 9 and 9.5 furlongs, which is really out of her range. If she can get an easy lead here, which doesn’t appear to be impossible, she could prove tough to catch. NEVER RETREAT is having a terrific year and enters off of a very sharp victory in the grade II Canadian Stakes at Woodbine. She too could prove tough in the stretch. DAVERON is a perfect 3-for-3 this year, and this race will likely be the final of her career. The German-bred filly possesses a tremendous turn of foot, which she displayed at Saratoga when winning the Ballston Spa Stakes (gr. II) by 1 ¾ lengths. Her spots have been chosen carefully, and I believe that she will end her career with a brilliant victory to secure a grade I win.

Keelerman: Daveron, Wasted Tears, Theysken’s Theory

J.R.: Wasted Tears, Daveron, Never Retreat

Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (gr. II)

SWITCH figures to be the heavy favorite here. After spending most of the year competing in route races, she is finally returning to a sprint race, where she has probably done her best running. After all, she boasts a pair of grade I wins at seven furlongs, as well as a strong second to Dubai Majesty in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I). SHOTGUN GULCH showed an affinity for the Keeneland main track earlier this spring when she upset the grade I Vinery Madison Stakes, but three subsequent starts have all yielded losses. However, her last race was a strong, late-running and narrowly beaten third in the Presque Isle Downs Master Stakes (gr. II), so she figures to be in good form for today’s race. MUSICAL ROMANCE, winner of the Masters Stakes, is also here but will likely have to run hard early to get good position from post one. RAPPORT won the Victory Ride Stakes (gr. III) last year, but will be making her first start since November 2010.

Keelerman: Switch, Holiday for Kitten, Shotgun Gulch
J.R.: Switch, Shotgun Gulch, Musical Romance

Champagne Stakes (gr. I)

Unlike last year’s Champagne Stakes, where the clear favorite was the eventual juvenile champion Uncle Mo, this year’s Champagne lacks a standout. The morning line favorite is UNION RAGS, who won the Saratoga Special (gr. II) going seven furlongs by 7 ¼ lengths. That was over a sloppy sealed track, but if he takes to the distance and fast track he could be tough to beat. ALPHA figures to be the second choice off of a six-length score in a maiden special weight going seven furlongs for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He has a magnificent pedigree that should easily carry him this far. POWER WORLD was in good form for his first three efforts, including a pair of seconds in graded stakes company, but didn’t take to the sloppy track in the Hopeful Stakes where he finished a distant fifth. However, he is bred to stretch out and should love the return to a fast track. TAKES THE GOLD easily broke his maiden going a mile over this track, so he’s proven under the conditions of this race, and NO SPIN should also be in contention off of a strong fourth in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III).

Keelerman: Alpha, Union Rags, Power World

J.R.: Takes the Gold, Alpha, Union Rags

Frizette Stakes (gr. I)

Six juvenile fillies will head to the Belmont starting gate with their eyes on a starting berth to next month’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I). The 6-5 morning line favorite is STOPSHOPPINGMARIA, who broke her maiden at Saratoga by almost ten lengths in a sharp 1:09.87 for six furlongs. With the same connections as top three-year-olds Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty, I believe it’s very possible that this filly could be on her way to championship honors at the end of the year. Her main competition should come from MY MISS AURELIA, a Steve Asmussen-trainee who is undefeated in two starts. She broke her maiden going 5-1/2 furlongs – with Stopshoppingmaria finishing a troubled third in her debut race – and subsequently returned to take the Adirondack Stakes (gr. II) by a neck. MISS NETTA could also prove an intriguing contender off of an easy victory going six furlongs at Saratoga in her only start to date. A daughter of Street Sense out of a Dynaformer mare, she should have no trouble stretching out. SPARE CHANGE, from the Phipps stable, could also be in contention off of a seven-furlong maiden victory.

Keelerman: Stopshoppingmaria, Spare Change, My Miss Aurelia

J.R.: Miss Netta, Stopshoppingmaria, My Miss Aurelia

Jamaica Handicap (gr. I)

BRILLIANT SPEED headlines this nine-furlong grade I event. Coming off of a sharp win in the nine-furlong Saranac Stakes (gr. III), in which he closed his final eighth in a spectacular :11.37, he looks just about unbeatable in this spot. CASINO HOST is the second choice off of a pair of solid efforts in major turf stakes races, but TOP SURPRISE may prove to be Brilliant Speed’s stiffest challenger. He is coming off of an exceptional victory in the one-mile Summing Stakes over this course, in which he closed his final quarter in roughly :22 flat.

Keelerman: Brilliant Speed, Top Surprize, Casino Host

J.R.: Brilliant Speed, Casino Host, Seal Cove

Ancient Title Stakes (gr. I)

Barring the impossible, there is really only one question to be asked about the outcome of the Ancient Title Stakes at Santa Anita Park – how much will THE FACTOR win by? The brilliant sophomore absolutely dominated a terrific field of sprinters in the Pat O’Brien Stakes (gr. I) in August at Del Mar, running the multiple grade I winner Smiling Tiger off his feet and holding off serious runs from Camp Victory and Crown of Thorns to win the race by 1 ¾ lengths – in his first start in over four months. He is also 2-for-2 over the Santa Anita main track, winning the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) going seven furlongs and broke the six furlong track record here when breaking his maiden. I can’t really see him losing. AMAZOMBIE will probably provide The Factor with his stiffest challenge, as he has been very consistent in all seven of his starts this year. Against grade I company, however, he could only manage a pair of thirds in the Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. I) and the Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I). IRREFUTABLE was second to next-out Vosburgh (gr. I) winner GIANT RYAN in the Smile Sprint Handicap (gr. II), but has subsequently finished sixth in both the Teddy Drone Stakes and the Pirates Bounty Stakes. MENSA HEAT has won three straight on synthetic and turf, but was only a claimer earlier this year on the Santa Anita main track. SQUARE EDDIE returned from a layoff to run seventh in the Pirates Bounty, but ran well over this track earlier this year.

Keelerman: The Factor, Amazombie, Square Eddie
J.R.: The Factor, Amazombie, Irrefutable

Hawthorne Gold Cup (gr. II)

A solid field of ten has turned out for this year’s running of the Hawthorne Gold Cup, led by last year’s runner-up GIANT OAK. Since finishing a fast-closing second here last autumn, he has won the Donn Handicap (gr. I) and was placed first in the Clark Handicap (gr. I) via disqualification of the winner. Admittedly, his last few efforts haven’t been all that great, but the mile and a quarter distance of today’s race, as well as a bit of a drop in class, should help him run back to his best performances. However, he will have to catch the speedy RULE from the Todd Pletcher barn. Last time out, the talented colt finished a strong third behind next-out grade I winners Havre de Grace and Flat Out in the Woodward Stakes. He looms as a possible lone speed, and should be tough to catch even at today’s distance. HEADACHE’s powerful late run earned him a victory in the Cornhusker Handicap, but could only manage a fifth in his most recent start, the The Woodward Stakes. Nevertheless, I believe he will rebound sharply today. Also in the mix could be WHERE’S STERLING, the Philip H. Iselin winner, MISTER MARTI GRAS, the Washington Park Handicap (gr. III) winner, and MARISTAR, a troubled third in that race.

Keelerman: RULE, GIANT OAK, HEADACHE

J.R.: HEADACHE, RULE, MISTER MARTI GRAS

One other race worth mentioning is the first on the card at Belmont, a seven-furlong main track allowance optional claiming race. The event marks the return of three proven stakes horses – 2010 Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner Boys at Tosconova, 2011 Sham Stakes (gr. III) winner Tapizar, and 2010 Pasco Stakes winner Uptowncharlybrown. All have been recuperating from injuries, and while it would not be surprising if they are all a bit rusty in their returns, they should make their presence felt here without a doubt, and I would be greatly surprised if one of them doesn’t win.

OTHER PICKS

Woodford Stakes (gr. III)

Keelerman: Havelock, Varsity, Great Attack

J.R.: Magoo, Great Attack, Varsity

Oak Tree Mile Stakes (gr. II)

Keelerman: Mr. Commons, Calimonco, John Johny Jak

J.R.: Mr. Commons, Blue Chagell, Victory Pete

-Keelerman