2011 BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE PRE-ENTRIES ANALYSIS

Here are the pre-entries for the $2,000,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I):

Alpha

Creative Cause

Crusade

Daddy Long Legs (Second preference in the Juvenile Turf)

Drill

Dullahan (First preference in the Juvenile Turf)

Fort Loudon

Hansen (Second preference in the Juvenile Sprint)

Majestic City (First preference in the Juvenile Turf)

Optimizer

Prospective

Right to Vote

Take Charge Indy

Union Rags

Also Eligible

Sabercat

Speightscity

Although it has been confirmed that Dullahan will start here rather than in the Juvenile Turf, the field for this race remains very much in flux as Daddy Long Legs, Hansen, and Majestic City's goals are still unknown. A scratch from one would lead to Sabercat entering the race, and a second scratch would enable Speightscity to run.

The heavy favorite will be Union Rags, and rightly so. The undefeated colt is 3-for-3 with decisive victories in the Saratoga Special (gr. II) and the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) under his belt. In the Champagne, he encountered a great deal of traffic but still demonstrated an impressive turn of foot to win going away by five lengths. He has yet to race around two turns, but I don't believe that will be an issue here.

Creative Cause, Drill, and Alpha figure to have the best chance at pulling off a mild upset. Creative Cause and Drill met twice in grade I company out in California, with Drill defeating Creative Cause by a length in the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) and the latter turning the tables going two turns in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I). However, Drill emerged from the Norfolk with a slight fever, so it is possible that he is closer in talent to Creative Cause around two turns that it appears on the surface.

Alpha finished second to Union Rags in the Champagne, but was absolutely no threat whatsoever to the winner. He is capable of improving with maturity and while going two turns, but whether or not he will improve enough to catch Union Rags is the big question.

A pair of Europeans from the barn of Aidan O'Brien also make things interesting, as neither of them have raced on dirt before. They are Daddy Long Legs and Crusade. Obviously, the major question being asked is: how will they take to the dirt?, but Europeans have shipped in to win the Juvenile before, with Arazi and Johannesburg coming to mind off the top of my head. And of course, Biondetti ran well enough to be fourth in last year's Juvenile.

Fort Loudon swept through the Florida Stallion Series at Calder Race Course, but will be taking a big step up in class here. Hansen also has never faced this caliber of competition, but has won his only two starts by over twenty-five combined lengths. Dullahan, a half-brother to 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, won the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity over Keeneland's Polytrack, but must prove himself routing on dirt. Majestic City, Optimizer, Prospective, Right to Vote, and Take Charge Indy will all be mild-to-huge longshots, but a couple of them may warrant a closer look during the coming days. All told, it should be a fascinating race.

-Keelerman