2011 BREEDERS' CUP DIRT MILE ANALYSIS

Here are the pre-entries for the $1,000,000 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I):

Aikenite (First preference in the Sprint)

Caleb's Posse (Second preference in the Sprint)

Jackson Bend (Second preference in the Sprint)

Jersey Town

Prayer for Relief (First preference in the Classic)

Rule

Shackleford

Sidney's Candy (First preference in the Mile)

The Factor (Second preference in the Sprint)

To Honor and Serve (First preference in the Classic)

Trappe Shot (Second preference in the Sprint)

Tres Borrachos

Uncle Mo (First preference in the Classic)

Wilburn

Also Eligible:

Tapizar

Irrefutable

Although sixteen have been entered, it's very possible that the field could consist of eleven or less, what with Aikenite, Prayer for Relief, Sidney's Candy, To Honor and Serve, and Uncle Mo all pointing toward other races and Caleb's Posse, Jackson Bend, and The Factor still in consideration for other events.

One of the main questions here is how fast the early pace will be. Obviously, the incredible three-year-old sprinter The Factor is the main speed of the race, but he is a need-the-lead type and has been known to wilt when he doesn't get it. In his last race, when he had to sprint hard early in the Ancient Title Stakes (gr. I) in order to get the lead, he tired late to finish fourth. Clearly, a :22 2/5, :45 3/5 pace is well within his capabilities and he did prove himself around two turns when he won the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn earlier this year. So, if he is able to use his speed to get clear and set a reasonable pace, he could prove extremely tough to catch.

On the other hand, will he get a clear lead? Rule, Shackleford, and Tapizar are usually on or very, very close to the pace, and Trappe Shot too has shown the ability to stay close in the past. Wilburn as well could be up involved in the early pace, although the giant colt is more likely to be in behind the leaders. While it's pretty clear that none of these horses possess the same blinding speed of The Factor, they could make it just hot enough up front to set the race up for a closer like Jackson Bend or Caleb's Posse. The latter won the Amsterdam Stakes (gr. II) and the King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) during the Saratoga meet, defeated Uncle Mo in the King's Bishop, and is clearly at his best as a one-turn closer. The same goes for Jackson Bend, who won the James Marvin Stakes and the Forego Stakes (gr. I), both going seven furlongs at Saratoga, before running a huge second to Uncle Mo going a mile in the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) while attempting to close over a speed-favoring track. In my opinion, the pace will make this race: An uncontested pace set by The Factor will enable him to kick clear in the stretch, while a pressured, moderately quick pace would enable Jackson Bend to rally for victory. This is going to be a good one.

-Keelerman