(This is the first in a series of fifteen posts analyzing the pre-entries for this year's Breeders' Cup. Enjoy!)
Here are the pre-entries for the final and most anticipated race of the Breeders' Cup -- the $5,000,000 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I).
Await the Dawn (First preference in the Turf)
Drosselmeyer
Flat Out
Game On Dude
Gio Ponti (Second preference in the Mile)
Havre de Grace (Second preference in the Ladies' Classic)
Headache
Prayer for Relief (Second preference in the Dirt Mile)
Rattlesnake Bridge
Ruler On Ice
So You Think (NZ)
Stay Thirsty
To Honor and Serve (Second preference in the Dirt Mile)
Uncle Mo (Second preference in the Dirt Mile)
Also Eligible: Ice Box
Nearly everyone (including me) is looking forward to a battle between the brilliant sophomore Uncle Mo and the magnificent older filly Havre de Grace. But if those two prove to be much the best of this field, I would be greatly surprised.
For Uncle Mo, this race will be his third start off of a sickness-induced layoff. Returned to the races in late August, he missed by a head in the King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) at seven furlongs before dominating grade I winners Jackson Bend and Jersey Town in the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) going a mile, where he stopped the clock over a sloppy track in a blazing 1:33 4/5. A repeat of that performance would definitely put him in the mix here, but he had never raced farther than a mile and an eighth and hasn't gone around two turns since losing the Wood Memorial (gr. I) back in April.
Havre de Grace in nearly perfect this year, with her only loss in six starts coming by a nose to last year's Champion 3yo filly Blind Luck in the Delaware Handicap (gr. II). Since that performance, she has won the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) over Flat Out, and the Beldame Stakes (gr. I) under wraps by daylight. She enters the Classic as the possible favorite, and deservedly so, but she has still never won a race at a mile and a quarter (although she has just missed twice at that distance).
Flat Out, as mentioned above, lost the Woodward to Havre de Grace, but was beaten only a length. Previously, he had dominated the Suburban Handicap (gr. II) and finished a strong second to top older male Tizway in the Whitney Handicap (gr. I). Following the Woodward, he defeated a classy field in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) that included fellow Classic starters Drosselmeyer and Stay Thirsty. He does have an advantage over Havre de Grace and Uncle Mo in having won at a mile and a quarter, but nevertheless his two stakes wins this year have come at Belmont Park, so he must prove that he can win elsewhere in the Classic.
So You Think is undoubtedly the big question mark here, having never raced on dirt previously. But the New Zealand-bred was a monster in Australia last year and a monster in Europe this year, and has proven himself time and time again going a mile and a quarter against top-level competition. Intriguingly, he has already raced twice in October and will be making his third start in about five weeks in the Breeders' Cup. And those races weren't “nothing races” -- they were the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-I) at Longchamp and the Champion Stakes (Eng-I) at Ascot, two of the biggest races in the world and with respective purses of over $5 million and $2 million. Are you worried that three races in five weeks will leave him too tired to win the Classic? Last year in Australia, he ran in group I races on October 9th, 23rd, and 30th -- then came back and ran third in the two-mile Melbourne Cup (Aus-I) on November 2nd -- with just two days’ rest. It's entirely possible that he will relish having a pair of recent prep races for the Classic.
Stay Thirsty and Game On Dude could potentially sew up Horse of the Year honors with a victory in the Classic. Stay Thirsty's major scores this year include the Travers (gr. I), Jim Dandy (gr. II), Gotham Stakes (gr. III), along with a second in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and a third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I). However, he has also finished seventh in the Florida Derby (gr. I) and twelfth in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), meaning that he has actually lost more races than he has won this year. He would need to impressively win the Classic -- with Havre de Grace and Flat Out failing to hit the board -- if he is to claim the top year-end honor. The same goes for Game On Dude, who—despite solid victories in the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) and Goodwood Stakes (gr. I)—has managed to lose, in chronological order, the Charles Town Classic (gr. III), the Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III), the Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I), and the Pacific Classic (gr. I). While he ran very well in the first of those three races, he was beaten by Flat Out in the Lone Star Park Handicap and would likely have to dominate his rivals in the Breeders' Cup to take home Horse of the Year.
In a year that lacks a clear division leader among the three-year-old males, To Honor and Serve, Rattlesnake Bridge, Prayer for Relief, Ruler On Ice, Stay Thirsty, and Uncle Mo will all try to stake their claim to the championship in the Classic. To Honor and Serve raced poorly early in the spring, took the first half of the summer off, and raced poorly in his return race. But he subsequently won an allowance race in impressive fashion and took down both Ruler On Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II). A win in the Classic could very well sew up the three-year-old championship.
Rattlesnake Bridge would be a longshot to win the award even with a dominating Classic win, for he has only a grade II stakes win on his resume this year and has been beaten in the Travers and the Pennsylvania Derby. But who knows? If he steps up and somehow wins by ten lengths, it would be hard to deny him the award.
Prayer for Relief was riding an impressive winning streak entering the Oklahoma Derby on October 16th, but a rough trip found him finishing third. A front-running colt, he has a lot of talent and will likely try to take the Classic field all the way on the front end. He doesn't really have much of a shot at Horse of the Year, but a Classic victory would all but guarantee him the three-year-old championship. Nevertheless, this is a huge step up in class and he will have to run the race of his life to win.
Ruler On Ice should have no trouble with the distance -- after all, he won the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) -- but has subsequently lost the Haskell Invitational (gr. I), the Travers Stakes (gr. I), and the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II). On the other hand, he displayed a new style in the Pennsylvania Derby, closing from far back over a speed-favoring track to finish second. Previously, his best running had come when racing near the pace. He'll be a bit of a longshot in the Classic, but I wouldn't count him out, and a victory would most definitely secure him the three-year-old championship.
Rounding out the field are Drosselmeyer, Gio Ponti, and Headache. Gio Ponti may or may not run -- he is cross entered in the Mile -- but his presence would definitely add intrigue to the race. As is the case with So You Think, he has never raced on dirt before but did finish second to Zenyatta in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic over a Pro-Ride synthetic track. He is bred to succeed on dirt, and the possibility certainly exists that he could relish the surface. Ten furlongs is arguably his best distance, so in no way would I count him out. Drosselmeyer, the 2010 Belmont Stakes winner, turned in a huge performance last time out while finishing second to Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over a speed-favoring track. While he should have no trouble with the distance of the Classic and could very well rally for a sizeable piece of the purse, he has not won a graded stakes race this year and will likely be one of the longshots here. Headache is having a good year, and enters the Classic off of a determined victory in the Hawthorne Gold Cup (gr. II) going ten furlongs. But he too is going to be a longshot here and it would be a surprise if he won.
On paper, I believe that Flat Out, Havre de Grace, and So You Think look like the ones to beat, but sentimentally, I've always liked Gio Ponti and would love to see him end his career with a burst of glory in the Classic. While he probably has a better chance at winning the Mile than the Classic, I do hope he runs in the big one against the best horses in the country, because I honestly believe he can win this race. I'm crossing my fingers that he runs in the Classic.
-Keelerman
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