2011 BREEDERS' CUP TURF PRE-ENTRIES ANALYSIS

Here are the pre-entries for the $3,000,000 Breeders' Cup Turf:

Await the Dawn (Second preference in the Classic)

Brilliant Speed

Dean's Kitten

Meeznah (First preference in the Marathon)

Midday (GB) (Second preference in the Filly & Mare Turf)

Stately Victor (Second preference in the Marathon)

Teaks North

Winchester

Sarafina (FR) (Second preference in the Filly & Mare Turf)

Sea Moon (GB)

St Nicholas Abbey (IRE)

Already, a couple of changes have occurred. The European filly Meeznah will indeed run in the Marathon, while Winchester has been removed from consideration. Thus, only nine horses are scheduled to head to post, five of them from Europe; and those five are expected to be the top five favorites.

Interestingly, the two favorites could be mares. Midday, winner of the 2009 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf and close runner-up last year, will try the turf for the additional furlong. Sarafina, third in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in 2010 and a fairly strong seventh in that race this year, is also scheduled to contest this race rather than the Filly & Mare Turf. Among the colts, St Nicholas Abbey was the champion two-year-old male of 2009 and after a dismal year in 2010, has returned strongly this year. Already, he has won a major race over Midday and finished a strong fifth in the Arc after leading into the homestretch. Sea Moon, owned by Juddmonte Farms, has some decent efforts under his belt this year for Michael Stoute and could definitely win this race. So could Await the Dawn, who disappointed last time out but had been quite impressive before that. He was actually doubtful to make the Breeders' Cup after getting sick, but has recovered rapidly and so here he is.

The American hopefuls are, to be perfectly honest, just that -- hopefuls. While Brilliant Speed, Dean's Kitten, Stately Victor, and Teaks North are all respectable competitors, it is highly doubtful that they can defeat the quality Europeans that have shipped in for this race. Teaks North is the only one to have won a grade I race on turf -- he has actually won a pair of them -- but disappointed in his lone start at a mile and a half. Dean's Kitten was a close second to Arlington Million winner Cape Blanco in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (gr. I), but Cape Blanco was subsequently discovered to have suffered a slab fracture of his knee during the running of the race. Stately Victory won the grade I Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) in 2010, but has never been as formidable on turf as on synthetics. Brilliant Speed, perhaps, has just enough stamina to go this far -- he did finish a close third in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) this year -- but was beaten by a very average European shipper last time out in the Jamaica Handicap (gr. I).

So my guess is that, barring a shocking upset, a European horse will claim the Breeders' Cup Turf for the fourth straight year, and for the sixth time in seven years.

-Keelerman