The Woodward Stakes Analysis & Picks

This afternoon at Saratoga, the battle for the title of Horse of the Year will continue when top contender for the award Havre de Grace takes on a solid field of seven colts in the The Woodward Stakes (gr. I).

In the nine furlong, $750,000 event, Havre de Grace is the 8-5 morning line favorite. A daughter of St. Liam, she is famous for her intense rivalry with champion three-year-old filly of 2010 Blind Luck.

This year, Havre de Grace is 3-for-4, including victories in the Apple Blossom (gr. I), Azeri Stakes (gr. III), and Obeah Stakes (gr. III). Most recently, she missed by a nose to Blind Luck in a thrilling edition of the Delaware Handicap (gr. II). A mid-pack runner with good tactical speed, she should be able to get a magnificent trip from gate six.

Flat Out looms her biggest competition as the 2-1 second choice. Impressive winner of the Suburban Handicap (gr. II) in July, he could only manage a second-place finish in the Whitney Handicap (gr. I) behind Tizway, but the track was playing extremely slow and unusual that day and it's hard to say whether it affected him or not. His career has been plagued by injuries, but he seems to be over everything now and is really in form.

Rule and Mission Impazible will likely be the early pacesetters. Rule is coming off of a narrow victory in an overnight stakes, in which he equaled in career-best Beyer Speed figure. A very quick horse, I expect him to break well and race away to set the early pace. Whether he can hang on to win is another question. Mission Impazible has been in terrific form this year, winning the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) earlier this spring and missing by a head in the grade I Stephen Foster Stakes. He was disappointing last time out in the Whitney while sixth, but again, the track was odd that day and I believe that he just didn't take to it. I'll believe he'll run much better today.

Giant Oak won the Donn Handicap (gr. I) back in February when he got a very quick pace to set up his late run, but I highly doubt that he will get a similar pace today. On the other hand, he always comes with a run and a good effort would not surprise me at all.

Mambo Meister is terrific when racing at Calder Race Course, but has never won anywhere else. Convocation often runs well in allowance company, but doesn't seem to be grade I stakes-caliber. Ice Box could run any kind of race -- he ran terrific in the Florida Derby (gr. I) and Kentucky Derby (gr. I) in the spring of 2010, but hasn't returned to that form since. He is coming off of a third in an allowance race behind Convocation, so unless he improves drastically I can't see him contending.

But the bottom line is, should Havre de Grace win this historic race -- a race that only one filly or mare, Rachel Alexandra, has ever won before -- she will have staked her claim for Horse of the Year, in my opinion. At this point, if Blind Luck wants the award, she's going to have to seek out Havre de Grace and beat her again. Time will tell if this happens.

My selections are:

1 Havre de Grace
2 Flat Out
3 Giant Oak
4 Mission Impazible

J.R.'s selections are:

1 Flat Out
2 Havre de Grace
3 Rule
4 Convocation

Undercard Race Selections

Forego Stakes (gr. I)

Keelerman

1 Regal Ransom
2 Jackson Bend
3 Sidney's Candy
4 Golddigger's Boy

J.R.

1 Jersey Town
2 Regal Ransom
3 Aikenite
4 Jackson Bend

Person Ensign Stakes (gr. I)

Keelerman

1 Acronym
2 Pachattack
3 Protesting
4 Ask the Moon

J.R.

1 Protesting
2 Ask the Moon
3 Pachattack
4 Tiz Miz Sue

-Keelerman