THE RETURN OF EXFACTOR

During the 2011 spring meet at Churchill Downs, I watched a promising son of Exchange Rate by the name of Exfactor take the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) with a tremendous late rally. At the time, I stated to several people that he was my 2012 Kentucky Derby colt; the one that would head to Churchill Downs as the finest three-year-old in the land and vindicate that opinion with a dominating victory.

However, time has lessened my support of him, whether for better or worse. He has not raced since the Bashford Manor, which has enabled colts like Union Rags, Hansen, Creative Cause, and even Timely Tally to stamp themselves firmly in my mind as more prominent 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders. But Exfactor has always remained in the back of my mind as one of the more promising juveniles to show off their talents this season, and he will have a chance to prove that he belongs among the elite of his crop later this afternoon in Fair Ground's Sugarbowl Stakes.

The Sugar Bowl Stakes is a $60,000 event for two-year-olds racing six furlongs -- not the kind of race that one would normally expect to see Derby horses prep in. Nevertheless, last year's edition was won by Archarcharch, who went on to take the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) and Arkansas Derby (gr. I) along the Triple Crown Trail before finishing up the track in the Kentucky Derby with a career-ending leg injury.

Exfactor's trainer is not your usual Bob Baffert or Todd Pletcher. His name is Bernard Flint, and 2012 will mark the 40th anniversary of the year in which he saddled his first runner. On seventeen occasions he has saddled over 100 winners in a year, but 2011 is on its way to being one of the worst seasons statistically of his career. Only 23 of his horses have found the winner's circle this year, which is actually pretty good considering those horses have collectively made only 148 starts. But bad year or not, Bernard Flint can cap off his year with a stakes win and Derby dreams if Exfactor is up to winning this race after such a lengthy layoff.

Seven horses are set to try and deny Exfactor victory, including the promising allowance winner Brown Eyed Jozi, the impressive maiden winner Afford, and the capable Laurie's Rocket. To take another step en route to the Kentucky Derby, Exfactor will have to defeat all of them in a race that may be too short and where he may be short on fitness. But to me, Exfactor has something that the others don't -- a spark of greatness, kept hidden just beneath his grey coat, ready to be unleashed when necassary. Should he win, I may just have to reaffirm my statement that he is the horse to beat at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

-Keelerman