An Early Look at the Belmont Stakes

Although there are still 2 1/2 weeks remaining until the Belmont Stakes, I thought it might be interesting to take an early look at the contenders and try to form some early opinions of the race. In the past, I have found to be very useful (and enjoyable!) to handicap the Belmont several weeks out, because it can help one to view the contenders with an open mind and address their merits without post time looming just a few days away.

We'll begin with the obvious: Kentucky Derby winner Orb and Preakness winner Oxbow. Both have turned in career-best efforts on the biggest stage in racing, but both have also hinted that they could be vulnerable in the Belmont.

Let's take a look at Orb's Derby victory. After trailing the field by nearly twenty lengths following the opening half-mile, he unleashed a powerful rally that carried him past the tired front-runners and on the victory. Based on that performance, he was the 3-5 favorite in the Preakness, where he made a strong run down the backstretch to reach contention before fading without obvious excuse rounding the final turn. Perhaps he didn't like racing between horses. Perhaps the rail wasn't the best part of the racetrack. Whatever the reason, Orb gave up valuable position at the most crucial stage of the race, and while he did succeed in re-rallying mildly to secure fourth, he was never a threat to front-running winner Oxbow.

In part, I believe Orb's disappointing Preakness performance was the result of the two vastly different pace scenarios that occurred in the Derby and the Preakness. In the Derby, you had Palace Malice running the opening half-mile in a blazing :45.33 -- this in the slop, no less -- which resulted in all of the other speed horses tiring badly in the final three-eighths of a mile. This allowed the deep closers -- such as Orb, Golden Soul, and Revolutionary -- to rally from way back and sweep the trifecta. In the Preakness, the opposite occurred. When the speedy trio of Titletown Five, Govenor Charlie, and Goldencents all chose to settle back off the lead, Oxbow was allowed to secure a very easy lead. How easy? Try a half-mile in :48.60, more than three lengths slower than in the Derby. Obviously, Oxbow had plenty of stamina in reserve after setting such a moderate pace, and was thus able to romp home without being seriously challenged.

That said, what intrigues me is that Orb did make that nice run down the backstretch. The slow pace certainly wasn't bothering him then. If anything, it was enabling him to get into the race sooner than usual, which can be a valuable asset. Of course, even if he had continued the move and challenged Oxbow around the far turn, I'm not sure he would have beaten the front-runner, simply because -- as I mentioned above -- Oxbow had plenty of gas left in the tank.

So what does this mean heading into the Belmont? Well, that's hard to say. The Belmont is very rarely a fast-paced race, so the pace scenario should set up well for Oxbow. Then again, does Oxbow look like the type of colt that could stretch out another five-sixteenths of a mile? His breeding suggests he can, but my early opinion is that twelve furlongs might be a bit far for him.

For Orb, I believe the additional distance will help his chances. Assuming he draws outside, the moderate pace should allow him to settle into a comfortable position some seven or eight lengths off the lead and finish with an unimpeded run. Furthermore, his familiarity with Belmont Park, having done a great deal of training there, should also help his chances.

Now -- having taken a brief look at the Derby and Preakness winners, let's shift our focus to the group of horses that ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and are returning for the Belmont. They include Golden Soul and Revolutionary, the second- and third-place Derby finishers.

Perhaps my strongest opinion heading into the Belmont concerns Golden Soul, who rallied up the rail to crack the Derby exacta at 34-1. His profile and overall racing record reminds me very much of Make Music for Me, who ran fourth in the 2010 Derby as a similar longshot. Both colts drew into the race at the last moment, having qualified thanks to the defections of more prominent contenders. Both had a generally disappointing spring campaign prior to the Derby. Both took advantage of blazing pace scenarios to earn a respectable finish in the Derby. Both skipped the Preakness to await the Belmont.

Make Music for Me was sent off as the fifth-choice in the 2010 Belmont at 12-1, but after dropping back to last early on, never rallied and wound up finishing tenth. He's still racing even today -- in fact, he ran third in a grade II stakes back in February. But he never again ran quite as well as he did when fourth with a perfect trip in the Derby.

Might Golden Soul be sitting on a similarly disappointing effort in this year's Belmont? Perhaps not. Perhaps he will be able to adapt to the slower pace, race closer to the lead, and finish well to win the race. But when you throw in the fact that he also saved ground all the way in the Derby, yet still couldn't beat Orb, it's hard to envision him outrunning the Derby winner to the Belmont Stakes finish line.

On a similar note, we have Revolutionary. Like Golden Soul, he rallied strongly up the fence in the Derby and loomed a possible winner before flattening out ever so slightly. I like his Belmont chances a bit better than Golden Soul's, since he did win the Louisiana Derby and Withers Stakes earlier in the spring. But he's another colt who could be vulnerable if allowed to drop too far behind a slow pace in the Belmont.

One other Derby colt that is definitely pointing toward the Belmont is Overanalyze, who ran evenly to finish eleventh in the Run for the Roses. Although he was almost as far behind the fast pace as Orb, Golden Soul, and Revolutionary were, Overanalyze was unable to present a rally of any kind and never threatened. Given this, it's hard to endorse his chances in the Belmont, but I'm going to go ahead and do just that. Remember Stay Thirsty, who was never in the mix when twelfth in the 2011 Derby? He came back to be beaten just three-quarters of a length in the Belmont while finishing ahead of the Derby and Preakness winners. I think that Overanalyze could be primed to execute a similar turnaround. After all, he did win the Futurity Stakes (gr. II) in powerful fashion at Belmont last year, so we know he likes the track.

But my boldest prediction heading into the Belmont concerns Palace Malice, the beaten pacesetter in the Derby. The addition of blinkers was obviously a failed experiment; they made him much too rank and resulted in the blazing pace he set. Assuming the blinkers come off for the Belmont, I envision Palace Malice being much more relaxed early while tracking the pace. From there, it will be up to the horse -- and perhaps the blood of Curlin flowing through his veins -- to help him see out the distance. At the very least, we know we can forgive his poor Derby showing.

Those are just about all the opinions I have generated thus far. Sometime during the coming two weeks, I'll post part two of this topic, concerning the filly Unlimited Budget, Bob Baffert's duo of Code West and Power Broker, and any other contenders on the radar. But for the moment, I'd like to hear your thoughts. Do you think Oxbow can stay the distance? Will Orb rebound to win two-thirds of the Triple Crown? Can Golden Soul and Revolutionary avoid the fate of Make Music for Me? Leave a comment and share your thoughts!

-Keelerman