Preakness Day Updates

4:33 ET: Happy Preakness day, everyone! After two weeks of waiting, we shall finally get to see if Orb can continue his quest for the Triple Crown by winning the 138th Preakness Stakes (gr. I) at Pimlico race course in Maryland. As I write this, he is the 4-5 favorite in the wagering, with Goldencents, Mylute, and Itsmyluckyday all at 8-1.

The first nine races at Pimlico have already been run, including a pair of grade III stakes -- the Gallorette Handicap, won by Pianist, and the Allaire DuPont Stakes, won by Summer Applause. Joel Rosario, who will ride Orb later this afternoon, has already won two races today, including the James. W. Murphy Stakes aboard Redwood Kitten.

Here are some quick thoughts of mine regarding the upcoming races . . .

* In the Maryland Sprint Handicap, might Manito have a chance? He's won four straight for trainer King Leatherbury, including an allowance optional claiming race here at Pimlico last month. True, he only beat three horses, but he ran the half mile in :45.15, a spectacular time at Pimlico. That said, late-running Hardened Wildcat looks tough to beat, assuming that Action Andy, Manito, Immortal Eyes, and Sage Valley set up a quick pace.

* The Dixie looks like a perfect spot for Imagining to pick up his first stakes victory. Granted, it's a deep field, and I wouldn't be surprised if anyone were to win, but I was very impressed by Imagining's allowance victory at Keeneland and I think he could end up being a very, very nice horse.

* On the surface, Orb looks like a towering and deserving favorite in the Preakness, but I do have a couple of thoughts. First off, there's the possibility of a sloppy track. Obviously, Orb didn't mind the mud at all in the Derby, but that was with a wide trip that surely prevented him from getting too much mud in his face. Now he has drawn the rail and can't possibility avoid the mud, at least to begin with. Might he wind up too far back early on, trying to escape the mud, and leave himself with too much ground to make up?

My other concern has to do with the pace scenario of the Derby. Orb got about as perfect a setup as one can envision, with a blazing early pace and very slow final half-mile. Now, perhaps it won't matter -- it certainly didn't for Pleasant Colony, who won the 1981 Derby with the help of a blazing pace, yet adapted to a slower-paced Preakness and won nevertheless. Orb showed versatility in the Florida Derby, racing close to a moderate pace before reeling in Itsmyluckyday with ease. If he can do that in the Preakness, I think he wins without trouble. But suppose a nightmare scenario unfolds -- Titletown Five finally relaxes and drops off the pace, while Goldencents, Govenor Charlie, and Oxbow all rate comfortably and set a moderate pace. In the meantime, Orb reacts poorly to the kickback and drops well off the pace, much like Animal Kingdom did in 2011. Might we see a replay of that 2011 Preakness, with a front-running speedster (Govenor Charlie, Goldencents, Oxbow?) opening up in the stretch and holding off the Derby winner's late charge?

All that said, I'm still not sure anyone is going to beat Orb. If I were to go out on a limb and pick someone else, I would side with Govenor Charlie or Oxbow, the latter being the only speed horse from the Derby to even remotely survive the pace duel.

Lastly, I would like to mention Titletown Five. I've been on this colt's bandwagon ever since he broke his maiden at Churchill last year, and have watched in disappointment his poor defeats in the Gazebo Stakes, Louisiana Derby, and Derby Trial Stakes. However, he was on the wrong side of closer-favoring pace scenarios in his last two starts, and if Julien Leparoux can succeed in getting him to take back off the pace, I think we could see a decent performance. Can he challenge for the win going 1 3/16th miles? Perhaps not -- it's probable that he'll end up as a better sprinter than a route horse. But looking back, can anyone believe that the top-notch sprinter Jackson Bend ran Lookin at Lucky to three-quarters of a length in the 2010 Preakness -- despite a bit of traffic in the stretch?

6:12: With seven minutes until post time, Orb has dropped down to 3-5, while -- somewhat surprisingly -- Itsmyluckyday has emerged as the second choice at 8-1. Govenor Charlie has received quite a bit of play and is now 9-1, as is Goldencents. The longest shot in the race is Titletown Five at 20-1.

6:32: And the Triple Crown will go unclaimed for another year.

Nothing really went right for Orb in the Preakness. The early pace was quite a bit slower than expected, which meant that Orb had to try and make an early move along the rail to get into contention. Unfortunately, Orb never really seemed comfortable down along the fence, and after encountering some brief traffic issues, dropped back a bit and never challenged thereafter. In the meantime, Oxbow and Gary Stevens stole the race on the front end, holding off a late charge from Itsmyluckyday to win by two lengths. Mylute rallied well for third, followed distantly by Orb.

Now thoughts can turn to the Belmont Stakes. Will Orb and Oxbow both advance and setup a rematch in New York? Will Freedom Child build upon his success in the Peter Pan? What about Golden Soul, Revolutionary, and Overanalyze, three Derby runners that skipped the Preakness to await the Belmont? It should be an interesting three weeks. Stay tuned!