Preakness Day Updates

4:33 ET: Happy Preakness day, everyone! After two weeks of waiting, we shall finally get to see if Orb can continue his quest for the Triple Crown by winning the 138th Preakness Stakes (gr. I) at Pimlico race course in Maryland. As I write this, he is the 4-5 favorite in the wagering, with Goldencents, Mylute, and Itsmyluckyday all at 8-1.

The first nine races at Pimlico have already been run, including a pair of grade III stakes -- the Gallorette Handicap, won by Pianist, and the Allaire DuPont Stakes, won by Summer Applause. Joel Rosario, who will ride Orb later this afternoon, has already won two races today, including the James. W. Murphy Stakes aboard Redwood Kitten.

Here are some quick thoughts of mine regarding the upcoming races . . .

* In the Maryland Sprint Handicap, might Manito have a chance? He's won four straight for trainer King Leatherbury, including an allowance optional claiming race here at Pimlico last month. True, he only beat three horses, but he ran the half mile in :45.15, a spectacular time at Pimlico. That said, late-running Hardened Wildcat looks tough to beat, assuming that Action Andy, Manito, Immortal Eyes, and Sage Valley set up a quick pace.

* The Dixie looks like a perfect spot for Imagining to pick up his first stakes victory. Granted, it's a deep field, and I wouldn't be surprised if anyone were to win, but I was very impressed by Imagining's allowance victory at Keeneland and I think he could end up being a very, very nice horse.

* On the surface, Orb looks like a towering and deserving favorite in the Preakness, but I do have a couple of thoughts. First off, there's the possibility of a sloppy track. Obviously, Orb didn't mind the mud at all in the Derby, but that was with a wide trip that surely prevented him from getting too much mud in his face. Now he has drawn the rail and can't possibility avoid the mud, at least to begin with. Might he wind up too far back early on, trying to escape the mud, and leave himself with too much ground to make up?

My other concern has to do with the pace scenario of the Derby. Orb got about as perfect a setup as one can envision, with a blazing early pace and very slow final half-mile. Now, perhaps it won't matter -- it certainly didn't for Pleasant Colony, who won the 1981 Derby with the help of a blazing pace, yet adapted to a slower-paced Preakness and won nevertheless. Orb showed versatility in the Florida Derby, racing close to a moderate pace before reeling in Itsmyluckyday with ease. If he can do that in the Preakness, I think he wins without trouble. But suppose a nightmare scenario unfolds -- Titletown Five finally relaxes and drops off the pace, while Goldencents, Govenor Charlie, and Oxbow all rate comfortably and set a moderate pace. In the meantime, Orb reacts poorly to the kickback and drops well off the pace, much like Animal Kingdom did in 2011. Might we see a replay of that 2011 Preakness, with a front-running speedster (Govenor Charlie, Goldencents, Oxbow?) opening up in the stretch and holding off the Derby winner's late charge?

All that said, I'm still not sure anyone is going to beat Orb. If I were to go out on a limb and pick someone else, I would side with Govenor Charlie or Oxbow, the latter being the only speed horse from the Derby to even remotely survive the pace duel.

Lastly, I would like to mention Titletown Five. I've been on this colt's bandwagon ever since he broke his maiden at Churchill last year, and have watched in disappointment his poor defeats in the Gazebo Stakes, Louisiana Derby, and Derby Trial Stakes. However, he was on the wrong side of closer-favoring pace scenarios in his last two starts, and if Julien Leparoux can succeed in getting him to take back off the pace, I think we could see a decent performance. Can he challenge for the win going 1 3/16th miles? Perhaps not -- it's probable that he'll end up as a better sprinter than a route horse. But looking back, can anyone believe that the top-notch sprinter Jackson Bend ran Lookin at Lucky to three-quarters of a length in the 2010 Preakness -- despite a bit of traffic in the stretch?

6:12: With seven minutes until post time, Orb has dropped down to 3-5, while -- somewhat surprisingly -- Itsmyluckyday has emerged as the second choice at 8-1. Govenor Charlie has received quite a bit of play and is now 9-1, as is Goldencents. The longest shot in the race is Titletown Five at 20-1.

6:32: And the Triple Crown will go unclaimed for another year.

Nothing really went right for Orb in the Preakness. The early pace was quite a bit slower than expected, which meant that Orb had to try and make an early move along the rail to get into contention. Unfortunately, Orb never really seemed comfortable down along the fence, and after encountering some brief traffic issues, dropped back a bit and never challenged thereafter. In the meantime, Oxbow and Gary Stevens stole the race on the front end, holding off a late charge from Itsmyluckyday to win by two lengths. Mylute rallied well for third, followed distantly by Orb.

Now thoughts can turn to the Belmont Stakes. Will Orb and Oxbow both advance and setup a rematch in New York? Will Freedom Child build upon his success in the Peter Pan? What about Golden Soul, Revolutionary, and Overanalyze, three Derby runners that skipped the Preakness to await the Belmont? It should be an interesting three weeks. Stay tuned!

Preakness Stakes Contender Profile: TITLETOWN FIVE

Owner: Paul Hornung, E. Martin, D. Wayne Lukas, and Willie Davis
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings
Jockey: Julien Leparoux

RACE RECORD

Age 3

4th Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III)
9th Louisiana Derby (gr. II)
2nd Gazebo Stakes

Age 2

1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Cee's Tizzy
	Tiznow
		Cee's Song
Titletown Five
		Forest Wildcat
	D' Wildcat Speed
		Velvet Panther

Derby Trial Stakes entries: Titletown Five gets one last shot at making Derby

Although the 2013 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) is little more than a week away, the field may not be completely finalized. One prep race -- that being the $175,000 Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs -- remains on the schedule, and the twenty points offered to the winner may very well be sufficient to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

A field of nine has been entered in the one-mile race, led by the promising colt Titletown Five. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the colt broke his maiden at Churchill last year in a spectacular performance, but a minor injury has forced him to play catch-up this year. Titletown Five returned in March to finish second in the Gazebo Stakes at Oaklawn Park, then ran ninth in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) after getting involved in a speed duel. Returning to the sight of his biggest victory, and making his third start off the layoff, Titletown Five may just have what it takes to win the Derby Trial and secure his spot in the Kentucky Derby. Gary Stevens has the mount from post nine.

Other prominent entrants include Zee Bros, an impressive maiden winner from the barn of Bob Baffert; Forty Tales, runner-up in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) two starts back for trainer Todd Pletcher; Capo Bastone, who ran third in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I); and Officer Alex, winner of the Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn Park last time out.

Post Positions:
1 Officer Alex
2 Ruler of Love
3 Zee Bros
4 Forty Tales
5 Ruble
6 Capo Bastone
7 Tour Guide
8 G. T. Tabu
9 Titletown Five

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 4-20-13

1. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
The announcement that Calvin Borel will ride this colt in the Derby seals the deal for me. Calvin should be just perfect for Revolutionary, whose slow-starting ways could lead to severe traffic issues in a twenty-horse field. With Calvin aboard, Revolutionary should be able to tuck in along the rail somewhere before rallying around the far turn to engage the leaders in the stretch -- a picture-perfect "Bo-rail" ride.

2. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He arrived at Churchill Downs on Sunday and is expected to turn in his first official workout there tomorrow morning. There's no denying that he's coming into the race in top form, but now Pletcher must keep him there for the next two weeks. That's not the easiest thing to do -- remember Eskendereya? -- but if all goes well, Verrazano should have every chance to keep his unbeaten record intact on the first Saturday in May.

3. Orb (Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Trained by Shug McGaughey
Breezed a half-mile in :48 flat at Payson Park Training Center last Sunday, and is expected to conduct the majority of his pre-Derby training at Payson as well. Unfortunately for us, that means we won't be able to see him get in a major workout at Churchill Downs, but while that may be beneficial, it's certainly not crucial -- I'll Have Another's final workout came at Betfair Hollywood Park.

4. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
Hard to believe that this colt still has only a maiden victory to his credit. He's been right there in all of his stakes attempts, closing well at the finish, but just never quite getting there. Whether he'll be able to finally "get there" in the Derby is the big question, but after the disappointments of Hard Spun, Eight Belles, and Friesan Fire, isn't it about time for Fox Hill Farm to win the Derby?

5. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Maybe I'm stubborn to keep him this high, but he had a truly awful trip in the Arkansas Derby, dropping back to last early on before rallying fairly well in the homestretch to finish fifth, beaten one length for second. To take a speedy colt like Oxbow, capable of claiming the early advantage, and make him come from off the pace is a scenario that rarely works. I don't blame jockey Gary Stevens for the ride at all -- it was either drop back to last or enter the first turn six or seven horses wide, which probably would have been even worse. One thing is for certain -- if Oxbow draws a better post position in the Derby, and is able to break well and use his early speed, we could witness a truly breakthrough performance from this talented colt.

6. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Returned to the work tab on Wednesday, breezing a moderate half-mile in :47.40. Given Doug O'Neill's training style, I wouldn't be surprised if Goldencents concludes his major training sometime next week with a solid six-furlong work, much like I'll Have Another did last year.

7. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
I was pleased to see that he worked a mile at Calder two days ago, getting the distance in a good 1:43.20 seconds. That's a real stamina-building workout, and exactly what a colt like Itsmyluckyday needs heading into the Derby.

8. Vyjack (Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky) Trained by Rudy Rodriguez
Breezed an easy half-mile in :51.60 at Fair Hill Training Center yesterday morning, his first work since his third-place effort in the Wood Memorial. I have mixed feelings about him going into the Derby, since he did have some minor breathing issues in the Wood, but assuming they get cleared up, won't he be sitting on a career-best performance?

9. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Not sure how long it's been since a Derby winner entered the Churchill classic off of a seven-week layoff, but I can guarantee you it's been more than a half-century. That only makes Will Take Charge's chances somewhat difficult to interpret, but when you throw in the fact that Lukas rarely -- if ever -- gives his three-year-olds that much time between races, things get even more confusing. His training during the next two weeks will be critical.

10. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Successfully came back in the Blue Grass Stakes off of just two weeks rest to finish second, thus securing enough points to make the Derby field. Hard to say what to make of his performance, since he was tiring badly at the finish. But let's not forget that the Blue Grass was Palace Malice's first start on Polytrack, and to be beaten a neck under those circumstances is impressive indeed. Now the only concern is that the Derby will be his third race in five weeks -- a mini-Triple Crown, in other words.

11. Java's War (War Pass - Java, by Rainbow Quest) Trained by Kenny McPeek
Let's give him some credit -- his late rally in the Blue Grass was exceptional, and the fact that he overcame such a slow start is astonishing. But that was the Blue Grass, and he's heading to Kentucky. The caliber of the competition is going to be much higher. The surface will be dirt, not Polytrack. That's not to say he can't adapt and win the Derby. But in order to do so, I don't think he can afford to give up so much ground at the start.

12. Charming Kitten (Kitten's Joy - Iteration, by Wild Again) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Take a look at this colt's record. In seven starts, he has finished in the top three six times. His lone off-the-board effort came in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) last fall, in which he was beaten 4 1/4 lengths after being "bumped hard between horses entering the stretch" (Equibase chart). In the Blue Grass Stakes, he was actually fairly close up during the early stages before he shuffled back and forced to steady behind horses. Despite this rough trip, he came running with a strong stretch bid, and was finishing pretty much in unison with Java's War during the final furlong. The wild card is that he's never run on dirt before, but Kitten's Joy has proven he can throw good dirt horses as well as turf horses, and the presence of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Wild Again in the bottom half of his pedigree is encouraging.

13. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
I haven't known what to do with this colt all year, and I still don't after the Arkansas Derby. That was a powerful victory, and he was wide every step of the way, but the final time of 1:51.94 was the slowest in over thirty years, and the Beyer came back a slow 88. My final opinion of him may simply come down to how well he trains during the next couple of weeks.

14. Govenor Charlie (Midnight Lute - Silverbulletway, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
Took a trip to Rood and Riddle for a foot examination, and although the tests came back fine, it's nevertheless a worrisome setback. You just don't like to see Derby contenders at a hospital less than three weeks from the race. That said, he seems to be fine, and has arrived at Churchill Downs for his final training.

15. Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) Trained by Kelly Breen
Spiral Stakes winner is due for a workout, and it wouldn't surprise me if it comes tomorrow morning. The form of the Spiral was somewhat muddled by the results of the Blue Grass, with Spiral runner-up Uncaptured finishing well off-the-board, while Spiral also-rans Fear the Kitten and Balance the Books actually ran pretty well at Keeneland. This is another colt whose training I will be studying with interest during the coming weeks.

16. Mylute (Midnight Lute - Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations) Trained by Tom Amoss
Turned in a very sharp six-furlong breeze at Churchill on April 14th, getting the distance in a bullet 1:12.20. According to Amoss, the colt will not have any more serious workouts from now until the Derby, so it will be difficult to say for certain how he is progressing during the final two weeks.

17. Lines of Battle (War Front - Black Speck, by Arch) Trained by Aidan O'Brien
Like fellow Coolmore Derby contenders Master of Hounds and Daddy Long Legs before him, Lines of Battle will be conducting the vast majority of his training at Ballydoyle in Ireland, so there won't be much to write about him during the next couple of weeks. I haven't heard for certain who will ride him at Churchill, although it certainly wouldn't be surprising if Ryan Moore -- who rode the colt to victory in the UAE Derby -- were to retain the mount.

18. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek
About the only thing that has gone right for Frac Daddy this spring was his runner-up effort in the Arkansas Derby last week, which secured him enough points to continue on to Churchill. It was certainly a sharper effort than the ones he showcased in the Florida Derby and Holy Bull Stakes, but that said, he was still beaten 4 1/4 lengths by Overanalyze. Nice to see him living up to the potential he displayed as a two-year-old, but he's going to have to improve further to contend in Louisville.

19. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert
At the moment, Bob Baffert is pointing this colt toward a start in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont, but that is subject to change. Should Baffert change his mind and re-route Code West to the Derby, he would have to be considered a contender based off of his nose defeat in the Risen Star Stakes two starts back.

20. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Surprise! He's back on my list! With just two weeks remaining until the Derby, determining who to include on this list has as much to do with who intends to run as it does with who has shown the most talent. In the case of Titletown Five, he will be using the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) one week from now as a possible springboard to the Derby itself, a feat rarely tried by modern-day trainers. On that note, it's worth pointing out that the last horse to use the Derby Trial as a prep for the Derby -- Don't Get Mad, who ran fourth in the 2005 Derby -- was trained by Lukas.

-Keelerman

Louisiana Derby entries: Revolutionary headlines full field of 14

Withers Stakes (gr. III) winner Revolutionary has been made the morning line favorite in the $1,000,000 Louisiana Derby (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Fair Grounds.

The Todd Pletcher-trained colt drew gate three in a field of fourteen horses, which also includes Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Code West, third-place finisher Palace Malice, and seventh-place finisher Proud Strike. Texas Heritage Stakes winner Departing, Gentilly Stakes winner Sunbean, and Gazebo Stakes runner-up Titletown Five have also been entered.

Post Positions:
1 Hip Four Sixtynine
2 Palace Malice
3 Revolutionary
4 Golden Soul
5 Whiskey Bravo
6 Sunbean
7 Departing
8 Code West
9 Proud Strike
10 Titletown Five
11 Mylute
12 Brazilian Court
13 Ground Transport
14 Nina's Dragon

-Keelerman

Titletown Five entered in Gazebo Stakes

Titletown Five, a highly-regarded three-year-old colt that won a maiden race at Churchill Downs last October by nine lengths, will make his first start since then on Saturday in the $60,000 Gazebo Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Titletown Five has competed against some very good horses during his brief four-race career, including CashCall Futurity (gr. I) winner Violence and Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) winner Orb. A son of Tiznow out of the Forest Wildcat mare D' Wildcat Speed, Titletown Five suffered an ankle chip shortly after his maiden victory and had to take some time off, but the colt has been training sharply since the beginning of February, and breezed a half-mile in a bullet :48 flat on February 26th.

Lined up to face Titletown Five are six other lightly-raced colts, led by the unbeaten three-time stakes winner Get Happy Mister, Big Drama Stakes winner King Henny, promising allowance winner Malibu High, and Smarty Jones Stakes fourth-place finisher Stormy Holiday.

Post Positions:
1 Get Happy Mister
2 Stormy Holiday
3 Vannistelrooy Star
4 Malibu High
5 King Henny
6 Titletown Five
7 Our Double Play

-Keelerman

Titletown Five records bullet work

Promising maiden winner Titletown Five continues to train well for his 2013 debut, breezing five furlongs in a bullet 1:01.40 seconds this morning at Oaklawn Park.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Titletown Five broke his maiden last October at Churchill Downs, defeating next-out winner Bradester by nine lengths and Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) contender Proud Strike by nineeteen. He suffered an ankle chip shortly thereafter and missed two months of training, but returned to the work tab earlier this month and has been working steadily since then.

Titletown Five is owned by William Davis, Paul Hornung, and Ed Martin. He is expected to return to the races in March, with the $600,000 Rebel Stakes (gr. II) being a possibility.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 2-13-13

1. Tiz the Truth (Tiznow - Truly Blessed, by French Deputy) Trained by Bob Baffert

The dam side of Tiz the Truth's pedigree is rather interesting to examine. His broodmare sire is French Deputy, winner of the 1995 Jerome Stakes (gr. II) and a highly successful sire in Japan, his top progeny including 2001 Japan Cup Dirt (Jpn-I) winner Kurofune and 2002 Whitney Invitational (gr. I) winner Left Bank. As for his tail-female family, you can argue that it is a bit weak -- going back three generations, it has produced just one black-type winner, that being Tiz the Truth's half-brother Notional. On the other hand, his third dam is Lady Tramp, winner of the 1967 Alcibiades Stakes and a full-sister to the multiple stakes winner Popular Demand.

2. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Surprise! I'll bet you didn't expect to see him up this high! There are a couple of reasons for his sudden rise in my rankings. First off, I was very encouraged by his sharp workout on February 9th, which signals that he should be ready to make his long-anticipated three-year-old debut sometime in mid-March. Secondly, please note that one of the few horses to have beaten Titletown Five -- Park City -- recently returned from a long layoff to win an allowance race at Gulfstream Park.

3. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown

Turned in a bullet workout on February 10th, breezing five-eighths in company with Brown's promising maiden winner Integrity and getting the distance in 1:01.44. From a pedigree perspective, ten furlongs may be a bit far for him, but I still can't get over how impressive his far-turn rally was in the Remsen Stakes last fall. If he can replicate that this year, he should be a contender in Louisville.

4. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.

There has been some talk that Itsmyluckyday's pedigree may not carry him a mile and a quarter. Perhaps it isn't the strongest classic pedigree I've ever seen, but the impression that Itsmyluckyday gave me in both the Gulfstream Park Derby and the Holy Bull leaves me with little doubt that he can be successful at ten furlongs. His great tactical speed, coupled with a powerful finishing kick, should make him a force in all the major races to come.

5. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher

His next start is scheduled to come in the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) on March 9th. I find it interesting to note that Todd Pletcher's lone Derby winner, Super Saver, also used the Tampa Bay Derby as a springboard to Louisville.

6. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher

With the plans being not to race him until the Florida Derby (gr. I) at the end of March, it's not surprising that he hasn't turned in a timed workout since the Holy Bull. The two-month gap between prep races is a bit unorthodox, but then again, it's the same pattern that worked for I'll Have Another last year.

7. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher

He has been shipped from New York to Florida to continue his training, which means that he is now considered to be one of Pletcher's first-string runners. A number of options are being contemplated for his next start, including the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Wood Memorial, but nothing definite has been decided.

8. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert

He's already back on the work tab, having breezed a half-mile in :47.80 on February 12th at Santa Anita. In the San Felipe, I would like to see him really get pressured by Goldencents through a fairly quick pace. And so long as that happens, I don't care if he wins or loses the race -- so long as he is right there at the finish. Kind of like Bodemeister in the 2012 San Felipe Stakes.

9. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher

On February 10th, he turned in his penultimate work for the Fountain of Youth, traversing five furlongs in 1:01.01 in company with Palace Malice. It was definitely a major step in the right direction, and a considerably sharper move than his work from one week earlier, so it appears that Violence is going to be ready to roll on February 23rd.

10. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Still no word on where this colt will race next. Pletcher already has horses pointing toward the Risen Star, Fountain of Youth, Gotham, Tampa Bay Derby, and Rebel Stakes -- which is pretty much every Derby prep race there is between now and the Spiral Stakes. So with that in mind, it seems likely that Capo Bastone is going to have to run against one on his stablemates -- perhaps in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) against Violence.

11. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert

Turned in another really nice workout on February 12th, traversing a half-mile in :47.80 at Santa Anita. It has been confirmed that his next start will come in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) on Sunday, so we'll soon be able to get a better feel for what kind of a colt he is.

12. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Went five furlongs in a nice 1:01.93 at Palm Meadows on February 10th, another nice step toward a start in the Gotham. Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing which Overanalyze shows up in the Gotham -- will we see the one that ground his way to victory in the Remsen, or the one that showcased an eye-catching turn-of-foot to win the Futurity?

13. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Cruised five furlongs in a moderate 1:02.60 this morning, but don't let the slow time fool you -- the track seemed a bit heavy this morning, and his work was actually the second-fastest of the morning at that distance, missing the bullet by just a fifth of a second.

14. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert

Breezed a half-mile in :48.00 at Santa Anita on February 12th, after which it was announced that he will make his next start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds. The more I think about this colt the more I start to like him, which explains why he is ranked 14th this week after sitting 21st last week.

15. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark Casse

His career thus far has been eerily similar to that of his stablemate Prospective. Both Dynamic Sky and Prospective began their careers at Woodbine; both finished off-the-board in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Both began their three-year-old season with a victory in the Pasco; both then ran second in the Sam. F Davis Stakes. Hopefully, Dynamic Sky's Derby dreams will end better than Prospective's, for the latter colt clipped heels at the start of the Derby and wound up eighteenth.

16. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Breezed five furlongs in 1:01.01 on February 10th in preparation for a start in the Risen Star Stakes, where he will be ridden for the first time by Rosie Napravnik. As it will be his two-turn debut, I'd just like to see him finish up strongly to secure a spot in the superfecta.

17. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin

No word yet on where this colt will run next, but he hasn't breezed since his maiden victory on January 26th, so it's probably safe to assume that he won't seem him again until March.

18. Cerro (Mr. Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion

Although his biggest success has come on dirt, Cerro actually has a strong turf pedigree, being a full brother to the stakes-placed two-time turf winner Sacham Spirit. And don't forget that his sire, Mr. Greeley, has produced a number of successful turf runners, including Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (gr. I) winner Aruna. So it should come as no surprise if Cerro takes to the turf strongly in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) next month.

19. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill

Turned in yet another bullet workout this morning, cruising six furlongs in 1:13.40 at Santa Anita. O'Neill seems to be training him the same way he trained I'll Have Another last year, with numerous long, quick breezes. Will it result in another Derby success? Time will tell.

20. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen

His next start is scheduled to come in the Risen Star Stakes, where he will face a very deep and very talented field of runners. But here's the interesting part -- jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rode Proud Strike to his maiden victory, but has chosen to ride recent Fair Grounds allowance winner Departing in the Risen Star. As a result, Proud Strike will be ridden by a new jockey in the Risen Star. That new jockey -- wouldn't you know it! -- is Gary Stevens.

21. Fortify (Distorted Humor - Kotuku, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mahmoud Al Zarooni.

He's drawn gate four in the UAE 2,000 Guineas (UAE-III), where he will face -- among others -- the unbeaten group I winner Soft Falling Rain and group III winner Glass Office. Please note that Fortify is no longer trained by Kiaran McLaughlin -- he is now trained by Mamoud Al Zarooni.

*****

With a number of major Derby preps coming up over the next several days, we can expect a number of major changes to my next top twenty. Regardless of what happens, you can probably expect to see Dewey Square and Uncaptured back on the list, as both have turned in recent workouts and seem to be back on the right track.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-9-13

This weekend is a bit light in terms of Kentucky Derby prep races -- actually, there are no official preps on the agenda -- so instead of simply focusing on the day's best races, we shall begin today's Triple Crown Countdown with a quick look at the first Kentucky Derby future wager pool, which opened yesterday.

My first thought upon seeing the odds was that there are several severe overlays. Imagine this -- there are twenty-four betting interests. Fully eleven of them -- Capo Bastone, Code West, Delhomme, Den's Legacy, Dynamic Sky, Falling Sky, Frac Daddy, Mylute, Super Ninety Nine, Vyjack, and Will Take Charge -- are 99-1 or higher, and a twelfth -- Uncaptured -- currently sits at 96-1.

In my opinion, the best value in the pool is Code West. What's not to like? He's trained by Bob Baffert. He has a strong mile-and-a-quarter pedigree. He just finished second in a strong allowance race at Santa Anita Park, earning a Beyer speed figure of 94. In contrast, that is a higher figure than anything Flashback (20-1), Oxbow (48-1), and Violence (9-1) have earned. Furthermore, Code West is bound for a graded stakes race next time out, and a victory -- which is certainly not out of the question -- would drastically lower his odds in future wager pool #2.

Capo Bastone, Dynamic Sky, Frac Daddy, and Super Ninety Nine also look like exceptional values. The latter colt earned a Beyer of 100 when defeating Code West in that recent allowance race, and that 100 is among the highest figures earned by a member of this three-year-old crop. And Frac Daddy -- wasn't he on everyone's Derby lists prior to his defeat in the Holy Bull? If you're willing to forgive his poor effort, which was surely the result of a hoof injury suffered early in the race, then I think now would be the time to lock in a great price.

Another colt that looks a bit high-priced to me is Holy Bull winner Itsmyluckyday, who currently sits at 20-1. In contrast, Shanghai Bobby -- whom he defeated in the Holy Bull -- is 9-1. Assuming Itsmyluckyday wins the Florida Derby, or even finishes a close second, he'll likely be a lot lower than 20-1 on Derby day.

****

A couple of other things to add before we move on to handicapping today's races… First off, it has been confirmed that Uncaptured, who has been dealing with hoof issues since his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last November, is pointing toward a start in either the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) or the Rushaway Stakes on March 23rd. He still isn't back on the work tab, but it shouldn't be long now before he turns in his first breeze of the year.

Also, Titletown Five, who broke his maiden in spectacular fashion for trainer D. Wayne Lukas last October, turned in his second breeze of the year this morning when he traversed a half-mile in :48.20 at Oaklawn Park. It was the second-fastest of sixty-two such morning works, signaling that the colt could be back to the races within the next month or so.

****

Time to start handicapping! We'll begin with the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel, the only stakes for three-year-old colts scheduled for this afternoon.

Miracle Wood Stakes

8 furlongs on the Laurel Park main track

As I write this, two of the eight entrants have been scratched, leaving a field of just six to contest the $125,000 stakes.

Heavily favored on the morning line at 7-5 is Vegas No Show, winner of the Dover Stakes and runner-up in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) last year. However, his two most recent efforts have been below par for him -- a 28 1/2-length defeat in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) was followed by a 5 3/4-length loss in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II). On the other hand, his last two workouts have been very sharp, including a bullet five-furlong breeze, and he looks poised to turn in a much-improved performance.

Alpha Mike Foxtrot has plenty of experience, having raced ten times as a juvenile, and enters this race off of a runner-up effort to the well-regarded Ore Pass in the Frank Whitely, Jr. Stakes here at Laurel. Previously, he had won the Maryland Juvenile Championship Stakes -- also at Laurel -- with a powerful late rally. Expect to see him rallying fast in the homestretch.

Dynamic Strike, a well-bred son of Smart Strike, has won two consecutive races at a mile in sharp fashion, but is taking a fairly substantial step up in class and will have to be sharp to beat the two favorites. Where's Dominic has won two of his three starts sprinting, but is now stretching beyond six furlongs for the first time. Lunar Rock has finished first, second, or third in nine of his ten starts, but has been beaten soundly by Alpha Mike Foxtrot in his last two starts. Rounding out the field is Yougotthatgoinforu, who wired a one-mile allowance race in December at Penn National. Obviously, he does possess some tactical speed, but this is a much tougher field than the ones he's been facing at Penn National, and he appears to be in a bit deep here.

Selections: Alpha Mike Foxtrot, Vegas No Show, Lunar Rock

Other Races of Note

At Fair Grounds . . .

Race 7: Hard to say if any Triple Crown candidates will emerge from this 8.5-furlong maiden special weight on the turf, but I'll be watching nonetheless to see if Hansen's full brother Gunderson can finally break his maiden. He lost his first two starts by a combined 30 1/2 lengths, but flashed much better form last time out to be beaten just 2 1/4 lengths on the main track here at Fair Grounds. Perhaps he won't win, but he has the speed to be a contender from the start.

Race 10: This six-furlong allowance optional claiming race marks the return of Carson's Crown, a debut winner that hasn't run since finishing a troubled second in the Hollywood Juvenile Championships Stakes (gr. III) last July. Formerly trained by John Sadler, he will make his debut for Michael Stidham in this race. Favorite Uncle, third to Malibu High in a similar event to this one in December; sharp maiden claiming winner Take It Like a Man; and the experienced Tap and Trade are other well-regarded entrants.

At Gulfstream Park . . .

Race 5: Forget the wonderful quartet of graded stakes races later on the card! The highlight of the day for the Triple Crown-obsessed is the 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race that has drawn such promising names as Little Distorted (3rd in Spectacular Bid Stakes, beat Revolutionary in debut), Declan's Warrior (1st in debut at Belmont; unraced since), Park City (Pletcher-trained maiden winner at Saratoga; unraced since); John Gordon (5th in Sanford for Dale Romans; unraced since); Almost English (5th in Gulfstream Park Derby); and Jay Eye See (7th to Majestic Hussar and Palace Malice in recent allowance; previously broke maiden by daylight.)

Race 6: Todd Pletcher has the favorite in this mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight, the colt in question being Tapulous. A son of (who else!) Tapit, the colt has only run once, finishing a so-so fourth in a six-furlong maiden special weight here at Gulfstream last month. Given that he flashed some good speed that day, I would think that Tapulous will have a good shot at stretching out and stealing this race on the front end. Wabbajack, third to Looking Cool and Doherty in a recent maiden special weight; Dyker Beach, beaten a half-length in a race similar to this one last month; the consistent O T B Bob; and the promising Chad Brown-trainee Saint Vigeur are the other main contenders, the latter colt looking especially strong.

Race 7: Todd Pletcher also has the favorite in this race, a 1 1/16th miles allowance race on the turf. His runner here is Jack Milton, who was highly impressive breaking his maiden under these same conditions last month. The possessor of an exceptional turn-of-foot, Jack Milton looks tough to beat in this spot. The speedy Play It Loud; the stakes-placed Newfound Zapper, and the well-bred stretch-out sprinter Sayaad are the other logical contenders.

At Santa Anita . . .

Race 7: Nine three-year-old colts have been entered in this six-furlong maiden special weight, with the morning line favorite being Bob Baffert's first-timer starter Zee Bros. A son of Brother Derek out of the Montbrook mare Nyanza -- a very different pedigree, don't you agree? -- Zee Bros has been training up a storm for months, and looks ready to win. To be perfectly honest, I think he may launch himself on to everyone's Derby lists tomorrow. Other notable entrants include Bench Press, third to the promising Cabello Del Cielo in a recent maiden special weight; Joelito, unraced since finishing second by a neck to Den's Legacy in a maiden race at Del Mar last summer; and Salutos Amigos, fourth to Let Em Shine sprinting six furlongs on January 19th.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 2-8-13

1. Tiz the Truth (Tiznow - Truly Blessed, by Deputy Minister) Trained by Bob Baffert
Are you surprised? You had better be -- I myself couldn't believe it when I decided to put this colt at the top of my list. But his maiden victory on Saturday was other-worldly. Yes, the pace he set was definitely on the slow side, and it's not like there was a world-class field behind him. But what I just can't get over is that he closed his final two furlongs in :11.61 and :11.87 seconds. That is just mind-boggling. The last maiden I can remember doing something similar was Bodemeister. Furthermore, Tiz the Truth's final time of 1:36.28 was quicker than the one-mile fractions of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (1:36.53) and the Strub Stakes (1:36.47) later in the day. Oh yeah, and as an added bonus, Gary Stevens is his rider. Imagine the excitement that would ensue should Gary make it to the Derby!

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He's up to five furlongs in his training, having breezed that distance in 1:01.23 seconds on February 3rd. Displacing him from the top spot has nothing to do with a change of opinion or heart -- I just really liked Tiz the Truth's effort and wanted to put him at #1.

3. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
He is to have just one more prep race before the Kentucky Derby, that coming in the Florida Derby (gr. I) on March 30th. However, it's interesting to note that he has only earned 10 Kentucky Derby qualification points -- and with that in mind, he's going to have to be sharp for the Florida Derby, because he can't afford a poor finish.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like his Holy Bull conqueror Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby will use the Florida Derby as his only other stop on the road to Louisville. But unlike Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby is positioned a bit better in terms of qualification points, having already earned 24. A third-place finish should secure him a spot in the Derby, and even a fourth-place finish would probably suffice. Truth be told, the chances of him performing that badly are remote, but after what happened to Union Rags and El Padrino last year -- who knows?

5. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Forget the low Beyer speed figure. Forget the fact that he won by just a neck. Revolutionary's performance in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) last Saturday was among the most spectacular I have ever seen from a three-year-old colt. After breaking slowly and winding up dead-last rounding the final turn, Revolutionary weaved his way between horses in the homestretch, saw an opening between horses with about a sixteenth of a mile to go, and surged through to win in dramatic fashion. He had every right to lose that race, but he didn't. The guts to turn certain defeat into victory by rallying through tiny holes could prove useful in a race like the Derby.

6. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Tiz the Truth, Flashback got a very easy trip in his Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) victory, but did finish up well to win by over six lengths. It was a very good performance, and he obviously had something left in the tank, but I didn't think it was quite as sharp as Tiz the Truth's maiden victory earlier on the card. Regardless, there's plenty of potential for Flashback, who is likely to use the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) in March as a prep for the Santa Anita Derby.

7. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Up until recently, I thought that Gunderman was a pretty decent horse. Then I watched him get beat nearly seventeen lengths by Verrazano. So . . . either Gunderman isn't the horse I thought he was, or this Verrazano colt is nothing short of amazing . . . I'll go with the latter. Words cannot describe how powerful Verrazano looked on Saturday, drawing off under virtually no urging to win a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park in 1:34.80. That was an unreal performance, and the scary part is that he clearly had something left in the tank.

8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Call me stubborn if you like, but I'm putting him back on my list. This morning, he breezed for the first time since breaking his maiden, going three furlongs in :37 1/5. I'll admit he's running out of time to join the Triple Crown trail, but if any trainer can get a horse like this to the Derby, it's Lukas.

9. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He still seems to be several works away from his first start, as his most recent breeze was five-eighths in 1:02.90, but I still think that his efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year were two deceptively good efforts. I'm looking forward to his return, whenever it may be.

10. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
With just a little more than two weeks remaining before his seasonal debut in the Fountain of Youth, I expect we'll be seeing a sharp workout from Violence this weekend. I'm still having a ton of trouble gauging just how good this colt is, so the Fountain of Youth should go a long way toward determining his future rankings.

11. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
Remember last week, when I noted in confusion that War Academy had breezed on turf? Well, he went back to dirt for his next work, traversing six furlongs in 1:12.60 from the gate on February 4th. He is nominated -- along with stablemates Belvin and Shakin It Up -- to the $150,000 San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) on February 17th, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is entered.

12. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like I've said in the past, I really don't know where to put this colt, and I won't until I see how he runs in the Gotham. There's no denying that his victory in the Remsen (gr. II) last fall was excellent. On the other hand, he seemed somewhat one-paced that day, and he's probably going to have to show a little better turn-of-foot to win a race like the Derby.

13. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Here's another colt that I'm not sure what to do with. His LeComte win was great. He seemed to have something left in the tank at the finish. But he set a slow pace -- can he go faster early and still finish strongly? This will be the key to his future success, and I hope to see him answer that question in the Risen Star.

14. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark Casse
I thought his performance in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) was good, but not quite what I was hoping for. True, he got hung wide around both turns, and he did finish up well in deep stretch. But I didn't like the way he was drifting in early stretch. Had he maintained a straight course, I am confident he could have won. Hopefully, he'll straighten out and keep his focus better in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) next month.

15. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It sounds as though he'll make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd, where we'll get a chance to see how he stacks up against Normandy Invasion and Oxbow. Breezed a half-mile in the good time of :48.19 seconds on February 3rd, so he should certainly be ready in time.

16. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
There are plenty of options available for this promising colt's next start, including the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) on March 2nd and the Wood Memorial (gr. I) on April 6th. Both races would seem to fit his schedule well, and he certainly has the foundation to jump into graded stakes company. After all, he's already got six starts under his belt -- that's two more than Verrazano and Flashback combined! :)

17. Cerro (Mr. Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion
He'll get another big test on March 3rd, when he contests the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park. From there, he'll head to the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway Park, where he will try and give Team Valor a three-peat following the victories of Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Went the Day Well in 2012.

18. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
It's beginning to look as though the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) on March 9th could be one of the best Derby preps of the year, at least from an anticipation standpoint. Both Goldencents and Flashback are pointing toward the race, with He's Had Enough, Tiz the Truth, Demonic, Tiz a Minister, and others possible as well. It should be a very stiff test for Goldencents, who will have to prove that he can handle the presence of other quality front-runners and still hold off the closers.

19. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen
Breezed five furlongs on February 4th in a very sharp 1:00.60 at Fair Grounds, signaling that a race like the Risen Star could be next on the agenda.

20. Fortify (Distorted Humor - Kotuku, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
After months of wondering why he wasn't on the work tab, it hit me a few days ago. A Godolphin-owned three-year-old . . . why, he's probably in Dubai! That turned out to be the case, as it was recently announced that Fortify will make his three-year-old debut in the UAE 2,000 Guineas on February 14th. Hard to say if he's being pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, but he certainly turned in some nice efforts last year, and if he finds success in Dubai -- who knows?

21. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert
A full-brother to 2009 Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) winner Charitable Man, this Bob Baffert-trainee recently returned from a three-month layoff to finish second in a one-mile allowance race at Santa Anita, behind fellow Baffert-trainee Super Ninety Nine. While Super Ninety Nine was more impressive on the day, I like the overall impression that Code West has given during his career, and his pedigree suggests that ten furlongs will be well within his range.

*****

As you may have noticed, Dewey Square has been removed from my top twenty. I had originally intended to leave him on, but with so many impressive efforts from up-and-comers last week, not much to say about this colt until he gets back on the work tab. To the best of my knowledge, no next-race plans have been announced, so we'll have to take a wait-and-see approach with this colt until further notice.

Also disappearing from this week's rankings are He's Had Enough, Frac Daddy, Will Take Charge, and Tiz a Minister. The first-mentioned colt has been dropped off of his disappointing third in the Robert B. Lewis, while the other two have been removed to make way for other up-and-coming runners.

Narrowly failing to make this week's list is Falling Sky, winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Give him a ton of credit -- he successfully stretched his speed around two turns and showed a lot of grit in holding off Dynamic Sky to win in good fashion. But while his pedigree suggests that ten furlongs could be within his range, he has given me the impression thus far that he may be at his best sprinting. We'll learn more about him in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) next month.

-Keelerman

Titletown Five returns to work tab

Titletown Five, who broke his maiden by nine lengths last October, returned to the work tab after a lengthy absence when he breezed three furlongs at Oaklawn Park this morning.

The son of Tiznow out of D' Wildcat Speed clocked the distance in :37 1/5, the fifth-fastest of the nine morning works at that distance.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Titletown Five lost the first three starts of his career while competing against horses such as CashCall Futurity (gr. I) winner Violence, recent Gulfstream allowance winner Orb, Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes winner Maybe So, and the impressive Gulfport. In his fourth start, a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, Titletown Five went straight to the lead and never looked back, winning by nine lengths over subsequent allowance winner Bradester and recent Fair Grounds maiden winner Proud Strike.

Titletown Five went to the sidelines shortly thereafter with an ankle chip. Today's breeze marks his first official workout since then. He is expected to return to the races sometime toward the end of March.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 1-11-13

1. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
He has been training steadily in Florida, most recently breezing five-eighths in 1:01.42 on Saturday. Next-race plans have not been announced, but at the rate he's going, don't be surprised if he turns up in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on January 26th.

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
Just recently had his first work back since his runner-up effort in the Remsen, breezing a half-mile at Palm Meadows in a bullet :48.01. Like Dewey Square, his next-race plans are still undetermined.

3. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
On January 1st, he breezed for the first time since the Breeders' Cup, going an easy three-eighths in :39.22. The plans are to bring him back in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream on February 2nd.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Likely champion has been on the work tab since mid-December, most recently going five furlongs in a sharp 1:00.04. First up on the agenda is the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on January 26th.

5. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's back in training following a mild illness, having breezed a half-mile twice since the end of last year. Hard to say where this well-bred colt will end up running, but don't be surprised to see him back sometime in February -- perhaps even in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II).

6. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He hasn't turned in a workout since the CashCall Futurity, but he should be back to serious training before too long. The Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd is scheduled to be his first race of the season.

7. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
He hasn't breezed in a couple of months, which had me worried there for a while, but Lukas told DRF.com that the colt will be ready to run in March, so for the moment, Titletown Five will stay here. His maiden victory on October 28th looks even better since Bradester -- who finished nine lengths behind Titletown Five -- has since one two straight, including a nice allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream on New Year's Day.

8. Mountain Eagle (Birdstone - Gulch Legacy, by Gulch) Trained by Nick Zito
In my opinion, this is the colt that could give Zito his first Derby victory since 1994. A beautifully bred son of Birdstone, Mountain Eagle broke his maiden on December 8th at Gulfstream Park by 4 1/2 impressive lengths, stopping the clock for a mile in 1:35.965 seconds. But perhaps the most impressive part of his victory was the final quarter mile of :24.41 seconds, this coming off the heels of a third quarter in :24.51. In my opinion, that is a sign of exceptional stamina.

9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
I'm having trouble determining where to rank this colt, partly because his record is a bit inconsistent. He broke his maiden impressively first time out. Then he finished a poor fourth in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I). Then he was a spectacular winner of the Futurity Stakes (gr. II). Then he was beaten eight lengths in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III). Most recently, he dug deep to win the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) with one of the highest Beyer speed figures earned by a two-year-old last year. We'll learn more about him in the Gotham Stakes (gr. II) on March 2nd, his anticipated three-year-old debut.

10. Power Broker (Pulpit - Shop Again, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
Although on the surface his record doesn't look all that great, this colt -- in my opinion -- has more talent than most people give him credit for. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he was very wide on boths turns while trying to close over a speed-favoring track, yet was still able to draw within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead at the eighth pole before understandably flattening out and finishing fifth, beaten five lengths. And of course, his 6 1/2-length triumph in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) was about as impressive a performance as you could hope for. He's not expected to run again until March, but when he returns, watch out.

11. Uncaptured (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) Trained by Mark Casse
This is another colt that I'm not quite sure what to do with. His two-year-old season was spectacular -- he won six of seven starts, including the Kentucky Jockey Club (gr. II) and Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) -- but at the same time, his performances on the track leave me questioning his ability to traverse ten furlongs on the first Saturday in May. His pedigree doesn't provide a conclusive answer, as it seems to suggest that a mile and a quarter is within Uncaptured's reach without being overly confident in itself. Furthermore, he's being dealing with a foot bruise that will cause him to miss the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), originally scheduled to mark his three-year-old debut. Like Overanalyze, we'll surely learn more further down the road.

12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Well-regarded son of Curlin broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga before going to the sidelines with sore shins. He returned to the work tab in December and has since breezed five times, most recently going five-eighths in 1:00.04 on January 6th. His return is expected to come in an as-of-yet undetermined allowance race.

13. He's Had Enough (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Looked excellent finishing second by a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but was subsequently beaten nine lengths when fifth in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). His overall record is rather confusing -- in the morning, he trains like a superhorse, and he ran terrific in his debut, but often runs poorly without any excuse. However, it is worth noting that the Breeders' Cup marked his only start on dirt, so don't be surprised if he rounds back into form upon returning to that surface.

14. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek
Showed a great deal of talent when breaking his maiden by 9 3/4 lengths and a great deal of grit finishing second by a neck to Uncaptured in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). From a pedigree perspective, ten furlongs may be a bit of a reach, but it's certainly not out of the question.

15. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
Highly promising debut winner missed the Sham Stakes (gr. III) after being slightly off just prior to a key workout, but tests revealed no injuries, and he breezed five furlongs in a sharp 1:00.40 on January 7th.

16. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Showed a new dimension in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), rating comfortably in second before rallying for a 1 1/2-length triumph. From a visual perspective, it was a terrific race -- he beat a couple of nice colts in Den's Legacy and Manando, with the rest fifteen lengths behind. However, the fractions tell a different story -- the final eighth of a mile was run in a very slow :13.66 seconds, despite a fairly moderate early pace. But regardless, this was a major step in the right direction for Goldencents.

17. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
While his victory in the Gulfstream Park Derby may have been aided by a track-bias, Itsmyluckyday was nevertheless highly impressive in winning by 6 3/4 lengths. Mildly concerning was the way that he drifted out coming off the turn, but he seemed to straighten out better once in the stretch and was certainly pouring on speed late. That he closed his final eighth in :12.70, despite running the opening three-quarters in 1:09.11, was very good indeed.

18. Omega Star (Candy Ride - Pride of Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus) Trained by John Shirreffs
After finishing a sharp second in his debut for trainer James Jerken, this well-bred colt was transferred to the barn of John Shirreffs and promptly broke his maiden in dominating fashion at Santa Anita on the final day of 2012. The race was a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight for California-breds, and Omega Star was the heavy favorite. With Julien Leparoux aboard, Omega Star settled into seventh early on while racing on the fence, shifted to the outside turning for home, and finished up strongly (6.17-second final sixteenth) to win by three dominating lengths. By Candy Ride out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare, he should be able to stretch out in distance just fine.

19. Maleeh (Indian Charlie - Gold Mover, by Gold Fever) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Although he didn't race as a two-year-old, this promising son of Indian Charlie made quite the debut on January 6th, rallying for victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct. Although the time of 1:10.84 seconds was impressive, it was the way Maleeh did it that impressed me. After getting off to a beautiful start and briefly attempting to challenge for the early lead, Maleeh was allowed to settle back in fourth place as the field moved down the backstretch. He made a nice, smooth run around the turn to reach contention entering the homestretch, but appeared beaten when the free-running leader Bellamy Storm scorched the fifth furlong in :11.51 seconds to maintain a two-length advantage. Nevertheless, Maleeh closed in strongly under a hand ride, edging Bellamy Storm in the final strides while running his own final eighth in about :11.74 seconds. He may not have the strongest of pedigrees, but there's no denying his talent.

20. Fury Kapcori (Tiznow - Gin Running, by Go for Gin) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
There were plenty of horses I could have included in this twentieth and final spot, but this colt gets the call thanks to his game second in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). I find his pedigree intriguing, being a son of Tiznow out of a Go for Gin mare. Go for Gin, of course, won the 1994 Kentucky Derby in front-running fashion and went on to be second in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Going further back, he is inbred 4S X 5D to In Reality, through that stallion's son Relaunch and his daughter Real Crafty Lady, who is the dam of Crafty Prospector.

****

Unfortunately, a number of promising colts have fallen off the Derby trail this week due to injury. Perhaps the most prominent was Hightail, winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, who suffered a sesamoid injury in training and was retired.

Also dropping off the trail were Gulfport, winner of two straight races in impressive fashion, and Archwarrior, a well-regarded Saratoga maiden winner that was recently turned out for a break after failing to train up to par this winter.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Ten 12-28-12

1. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
I was very impressed by his effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. After being hung wide on both turns, he appeared to be on his way to a distant defeat at the top of the stretch. However, he seemed to find another gear when challenged by Tesseron and finished very well in the final eighth of a mile, winning his personal duel with Tesseron and closing 2 1/2 lengths on the winner. Coming off of two very easy victories, I was pleased to see him dig deep when it mattered and give it his all.

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He made a simply tremendous run around the final turn of the Remsen Stakes, and while he did flatten out just a bit in deep stretch to be beaten a nose, I think that he has the potential to keep improving with leaps and bounds. Also take note of the fact that the final time in the Remsen -- 1:50.13 -- was a full two seconds faster than Unlimited Budget ran in winning the Demoiselle Stakes one race earlier.

3. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
In my opinion, Capo Bastone's efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the FrontRunner Stakes were two of the finest performances turned in by a two-year-old this year. In the FrontRunner, he dropped back to last over a very speed-favoring track, yet still rallied to be beaten just a half-length for second. In the Juvenile, he again trailed the field over a speed-favoring surface, yet still rallied to loom menacingly in the stretch before flattening out a bit to finish third. It was later discovered that he had bled. He has since been transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher and is currently training in Florida.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
You can't deny that Shanghai Bobby has talent. He's unbeaten in five starts, he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he won the Champagne, he won the Hopeful . . . you don't sweep that trio if you lack talent. However, speed-favoring tracks seemed to help his chances in both the Juvenile and the Champagne, and he doesn't have the strongest mile-and-a-quarter pedigree.

5. Gulfport (Unbridled's Song - Dream Supreme, by Seeking the Gold) Trained by Dale Romans
This guy has flashed talent since his first start, but really put it all together two starts ago, romping to victory in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He backed up that effort with an impressive triumph in a one-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs, which he won by 2 3/4 lengths in the quick time of 1:35.93. It appears as though the sky is the limit for this talented colt.

6. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's only made one start, but it was a good one. In a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Betfair Hollywood Park, War Academy settled back into third while racing three wide, then finished up strongly to win by a commanding 1 3/4 lengths. His final time of 1:17.66 wasn't anything stellar, but this colt is not bred to be a sprinter. He is bred top-and-bottom to be a stayer -- he's a son of Giant's Causeway out of an A.P. Indy mare.

7. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It took him a couple of tries, but Violence finally seems to be getting this racing thing figured out. After running greenly to victory in both a maiden special weight and the Nashua Stakes (gr. II), he put it all together in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), racing along the rail for much of the race before splitting horses in the stretch and drawing off late to win by 1 1/4 lengths. He looks like a good one.

8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
This colt's career has been an interesting one. After losing his first three starts -- while competing against horses like Gulfport, Violence, and Maybe So -- he broke through in terrific fashion last time out, winning a seven-furlong allowance race at Churchill Downs by nine lengths while stopping the clock in 1:23.84. The runner-up, Bradester, was in turn ten lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and has since returned to break his own maiden in impressive fashion.

9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
This fine colt showed a tremendous deal of grit in the Remsen Stakes, digging in when challenged by Normandy Invasion in the homestretch to turn certain defeat into victory. For his effort, he earned a Beyer speed figure of 99, one of the highest of the year for a two-year-old colt. The only reason I rank him so low is because he seems to be more of a grinder type, and doesn't have the same turn-of-foot as Normandy Invasion.

10. Long River (A.P. Indy - Round Pond, by Awesome Again) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Beautifully-bred Darley colt lost his first two starts -- albeit against some very good horses -- before breaking through with a three-quarter length triumph going a mile and seventy yards at Aqueduct in rather quick time. He is currently scheduled to contest the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct on January 5th, where he will get an opportunity to prove himself as an elite Derby contender.

-Keelerman