Friday, December 28, 2012

Keelerman's Derby Top Ten 12-28-12

1. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
I was very impressed by his effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. After being hung wide on both turns, he appeared to be on his way to a distant defeat at the top of the stretch. However, he seemed to find another gear when challenged by Tesseron and finished very well in the final eighth of a mile, winning his personal duel with Tesseron and closing 2 1/2 lengths on the winner. Coming off of two very easy victories, I was pleased to see him dig deep when it mattered and give it his all.

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He made a simply tremendous run around the final turn of the Remsen Stakes, and while he did flatten out just a bit in deep stretch to be beaten a nose, I think that he has the potential to keep improving with leaps and bounds. Also take note of the fact that the final time in the Remsen -- 1:50.13 -- was a full two seconds faster than Unlimited Budget ran in winning the Demoiselle Stakes one race earlier.

3. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
In my opinion, Capo Bastone's efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the FrontRunner Stakes were two of the finest performances turned in by a two-year-old this year. In the FrontRunner, he dropped back to last over a very speed-favoring track, yet still rallied to be beaten just a half-length for second. In the Juvenile, he again trailed the field over a speed-favoring surface, yet still rallied to loom menacingly in the stretch before flattening out a bit to finish third. It was later discovered that he had bled. He has since been transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher and is currently training in Florida.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
You can't deny that Shanghai Bobby has talent. He's unbeaten in five starts, he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he won the Champagne, he won the Hopeful . . . you don't sweep that trio if you lack talent. However, speed-favoring tracks seemed to help his chances in both the Juvenile and the Champagne, and he doesn't have the strongest mile-and-a-quarter pedigree.

5. Gulfport (Unbridled's Song - Dream Supreme, by Seeking the Gold) Trained by Dale Romans
This guy has flashed talent since his first start, but really put it all together two starts ago, romping to victory in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He backed up that effort with an impressive triumph in a one-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs, which he won by 2 3/4 lengths in the quick time of 1:35.93. It appears as though the sky is the limit for this talented colt.

6. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's only made one start, but it was a good one. In a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Betfair Hollywood Park, War Academy settled back into third while racing three wide, then finished up strongly to win by a commanding 1 3/4 lengths. His final time of 1:17.66 wasn't anything stellar, but this colt is not bred to be a sprinter. He is bred top-and-bottom to be a stayer -- he's a son of Giant's Causeway out of an A.P. Indy mare.

7. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It took him a couple of tries, but Violence finally seems to be getting this racing thing figured out. After running greenly to victory in both a maiden special weight and the Nashua Stakes (gr. II), he put it all together in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), racing along the rail for much of the race before splitting horses in the stretch and drawing off late to win by 1 1/4 lengths. He looks like a good one.

8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
This colt's career has been an interesting one. After losing his first three starts -- while competing against horses like Gulfport, Violence, and Maybe So -- he broke through in terrific fashion last time out, winning a seven-furlong allowance race at Churchill Downs by nine lengths while stopping the clock in 1:23.84. The runner-up, Bradester, was in turn ten lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and has since returned to break his own maiden in impressive fashion.

9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
This fine colt showed a tremendous deal of grit in the Remsen Stakes, digging in when challenged by Normandy Invasion in the homestretch to turn certain defeat into victory. For his effort, he earned a Beyer speed figure of 99, one of the highest of the year for a two-year-old colt. The only reason I rank him so low is because he seems to be more of a grinder type, and doesn't have the same turn-of-foot as Normandy Invasion.

10. Long River (A.P. Indy - Round Pond, by Awesome Again) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Beautifully-bred Darley colt lost his first two starts -- albeit against some very good horses -- before breaking through with a three-quarter length triumph going a mile and seventy yards at Aqueduct in rather quick time. He is currently scheduled to contest the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct on January 5th, where he will get an opportunity to prove himself as an elite Derby contender.

-Keelerman

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