2013 Kentucky Derby Selections

Well, the big day is finally here! Time to make our final run through the nineteen contenders and try and piece together some selections. As usual, we will be breaking down the contenders into three groups, based on how well I like their chances. Enjoy!

UNLIKELY CONTENDERS

#7 GIANT FINISH - Last-minute entry ran well when finishing third in the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway, but his only victories came against New York-breds, and by far the worst effort of his career came over a sloppy track. He has the speed to work out a stalking trip, but it's hard to envision him finish well enough to garner more than a minor share.

#11 LINES OF BATTLE - Irish-invader enters off of a solid victory in the UAE Derby (UAE-II) in Dubai, but while he is certainly bred to handle the distance, it's the surface that poses a bigger question. The Derby will mark his first start on dirt. Being a son of War Front out of an Arch mare, handling dirt isn't out of the question, but reports are that his stride seems better suited to turf. He could definitely be in the mix, especially if the track comes up sloppy, but that's a long trip from Dubai.

#13 FALLING SKY - Talented colt won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa back in February before finishing a distant third in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) and fourth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I). He has the breeding to handle the mud, being by Lion Heart out of Sea Hero, but ten furlongs may be a bit beyond his best distance, especially facing a field of this caliber.

#15 CHARMING KITTEN - There aren't many colts I'd like to see win the Derby more than Charming Kitten, as I am very fond of the Kitten's Joy progeny and would enjoy seeing the Ramseys win the Derby. But as impressed as I was by Charming Kitten's Blue Grass run -- in which he got shuffled back after a decent start and still rallied to be beaten just a half-length -- the fact remains that he has never run on dirt, and probably has a brighter future on turf.

#17 WILL TAKE CHARGE - I rank him among the unlikely contenders simply because of the weather forecast; let's not forget that Will Take Charge was absolutely trounced when sixth in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), his lone start on an off track. There are other questions as well, such as the seven-week layoff and the slow five-furlong breeze on April 29th. Deserves respect off of his Rebel triumph, but of the two Lukas trainees, I prefer Oxbow.

#19 JAVA'S WAR - Hard to get a good idea of where this colt fits in. His Blue Grass run was exceptional, as he ran his last three-eighth in a simply spectacular :36 flat. Anything close to that in the Derby would put him right in contention. On the same note, he presented an eye-catching rally when second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby on dirt. On the other hand, he didn't really fire when sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) here at Churchill last fall, and his habit of breaking very slowly puts him at a disadvantage in what should be a moderate-paced Derby. Certainly can make an impact, but like others, his future is probably on turf and Polytrack.

MEDIUM CONTENDERS

#4 GOLDEN SOUL - Maybe I'm crazy, but I actually like this colt's chances pretty well. His sixth-place finish in the Risen Star (gr. II) was by no means bad, and he made a strong middle move in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) to crack the superfecta. Furthermore, he finished just 1 1/2 lengths behind Departing that day, and Departing came back to win the Illinois Derby (gr. III) in sharp fashion. He's had two nice workouts since then, and while he may be overlooked coming into the Derby, I think he can work out a decent trip from gate four and put in a good run late.

#5 NORMANDY INVASION - Wood Memorial runner-up has shown a lot of speed in recent workouts, which may or may not be a good thing. On the positive side, it should enable him to work out a good trip while breaking from gate five, and it should help him to get into the thick of things quicker than usual. On the negative side, he could wind up too close to the early lead, weakening his closing kick and stretching his already speed-oriented pedigree to the limit. Certainly deserves a ton of respect, but I'm leaning against him today.

#6 MYLUTE - When a trainer voices serious concerns about a horse handling nine furlongs, you have to question whether that horse is a good bet going another furlong farther. That is the case with Mylute, whose trainer Tom Amoss questioned the colt's ability to handle the distance of the Louisiana Derby. In the end, Mylute handled it just fine, losing by a neck to the very game Revolutionary. But what worries me is that Mylute looked like a winner at the eighth pole before flattening out just a bit and allowing Revolutionary to reclaim the lead. This is something that Mylute has done a few of other times in the past. In the Risen Star, he was just a length behind at the eighth pole before weakening to be beaten 3 1/4. In the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes last year, he made a spectacular rally around the turn to draw within a length of the lead before winding up third by three lengths. That said, Mylute is bred to handle the mud, and if the track comes up sloppy as expected, you can be pretty sure he'll relish it.

#9 OVERANALYZE - From a visual perspective, he was exceptional in the Arkansas Derby, racing wide throughout before pulling away to dominate by 4 1/4 lengths. However, from a speed figure perspective, it was a rather slow race, and from a final time perspective, it was the slowest Arkansas Derby since 1978. That said, his final eighth in about :12 3/5 was strong, and he showed a lot of grit last year winning the Remsen by a nose over Overanalyze. Of course, the fact that he tends to sandwich winning efforts around poor performances is concerning, as he enters the Derby poised for one of his sub-par races. On the other hand, Todd Pletcher called the colt's last workout his best ever, and I agree with that. So as you can see, I'm not really sure what to do with Overanalyze. Either he's going to run huge, or he's going to finish well behind. And I really don't know which.

#10 PALACE MALICE - He's never run a bad race, not even in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II), where his seventh-place finish was the result of a disastrous trip. Last time out, he seemed to lose focus in the stretch of the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), which wound up costing him dearly as Java's War rallied to edge him by a neck. Returning now to dirt, where he is probably at his best, Palace Malice is bred to handle the slop and should be able to work out a nice mid-pack trip while starting from gate ten. Interestingly, he will be wearing blinkers for the first time today, an equipment change surely meant to keep him focused.

#12 ITSMYLUCKYDAY - He was as impressive as could be in his first two starts of the year, romping to victory in both the Gulfstream Park Derby and the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). Interestingly, he regressed considerably when second in the Florida Derby (gr. I) off of a two-month layoff, the second time in his career that he failed to fire off a break. I think he got a lot out of that race and should be considerably sharper today, and since he has the tactical speed to stay in touch with the early leaders, he should be right in contention rounding the final turn. Also, don't forget that he won the Fasig-Tipton Turf Dash at Calder last year over a sloppy sealed track.

#14 VERRAZANO - What's not to like about an unbeaten Wood Memorial winner? Well, nothing, except that we were saying the same thing about Gemologist last year prior to his sixteenth-place finish. I expect Verrazano to perform a lot better than that, especially considering that he has drawn outside the primary speed and should work out a great trip. My main concern is that he may have peaked earlier this year. Todd Pletcher's Derby horses don't usually run four races in the span of little more than three months, and this busy schedule may be taking its toll on Verrazano, who couldn't shake Vyjack and Normandy Invasion in the Wood Memorial despite getting a very easy trip. Throw in the Apollo Curse -- no horse has won the Derby with racing as a two-year-old since Apollo in 1882 -- and you have yourself a legitimate, but vulnerable contender.

#18 FRAC DADDY - Runner-up in the Arkansas Derby has had a generally disappointing three-year-old season, but seems to be heading in the right direction now and could be sitting on a big effort. He's already run two good races at Churchill, including a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), and given the tactical speed he has displayed in the past, it wouldn't surprise me to see him racing just a few lengths off of the early lead.

#20 VYJACK - One of the best efforts of his career came over a sloppy sealed track in the Traskwood Stakes at Aqueduct last fall, so he shouldn't have any trouble with today's wet track. Drawing gate twenty certainly wasn't the best, but I think he's versatile enough to work out a decent trip, regardless of whether the pace is fast or slow. Perhaps he doesn't have the best breeding for ten furlongs, and perhaps his recent training hasn't been stellar, but I'm intrigued by his chances.

WIN CONTENDERS

#2 OXBOW - My decision to include him among the win contenders came just this morning. With the track likely to be sloppy, and with his strong breeding off-track breeding, I think this colt could be sitting on a gate-to-wire effort. Think about it -- with the scratch of Black Onyx, he's got enough room on the inside to speed away and take the lead, assuming he breaks well. And since he'll be on the inside, we won't have to worry about him getting hung wide on the turns, which has been the case in his last three starts. And of course, the Awesome Again/Tizamazing match-up should provide Oxbow with more than enough stamina to handle the distance. I can just see Oxbow bounding out of the starting gate, taking command of the lead, and running the stalkers off their feet while the closers struggle to get untracked as mud flies in their faces. We already saw Princess of Sylmar win yesterday's Oaks at 38-1. Can Oxbow do the same?

#3 REVOLUTIONARY - In my opinion, this is the colt to beat, especially if the track comes up sloppy. We have seen what jockey Calvin Borel is capable of doing in the Churchill slop -- remember Mine That Bird and Super Saver? And let's be honest, has there ever been a horse more perfectly suited to Borel's riding style than Revolutionary? This is a colt that surged through one hole after another in the Withers Stakes (gr. III), turning certain defeat into thrilling victory with a spectacular stretch rally. This is a colt that made a sustained rally down the backstretch and around the turn of the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) to take command of the lead -- and then tenaciously hold off the rally of Mylute. This is a colt that earned a Beyer speed figure of 102 when breaking his maiden. Many people expect him to be well off of the early pace, but I don't see that happening. I think the only reason Revolutionary was so far behind in the Louisiana Derby was because of his sluggish start, and assuming Borel can get him out of the gate a bit quicker this afternoon, I envision Revolutionary sitting mid-pack early before riding the rail for yet another Bo-rail victory.

#8 GOLDENCENTS - I'll be the first to admit that I've never viewed this colt as one that could handle ten furlongs, but his Santa Anita Derby victory was visually impressive, and the 105 Beyer that he earned for that triumph is by far the highest last-out figure earned by any of the Derby horses. Taking into account the pace-tracking dimension that he showed in the Santa Anita Derby, I would think that Goldencents will try to settle just behind Oxbow and Falling Sky early on, then try and get first run on the final turn and open up as large a lead as possible before the closers come running. I have two concerns. One is the mud, over which he is untested. The other is the competitive nature he displayed in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) two starts back. Now, don't get me wrong, I like a colt with fire and determination, but the way he accepted Flashback's challenge -- resulting in a truly blazing speed duel that exhausted them both -- makes me wonder if the atmosphere of the Derby will rile him up and cause him to forget rating and sprint much too hard early on. In conclusion, I think Goldencents' Derby fate will be determined in the opening two or three furlongs.

#16 ORB - The incident two days ago where he got spooked in the paddock was concerning, but he seems to have emerged from the event without injury. He's probably been training the best of anyone coming into the Derby, and with his powerful late run, you have to think that he's going to be coming hard in the final quarter mile. The slop is a big question mark, but I'm feeling pretty good about his chances today.

Selections:
1 Revolutionary
2 Orb
3 Oxbow
4 Goldencents

-Keelerman

2013 Kentucky Derby Post Positions

Here are the post positions for the 139th running of Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), to be run on Saturday, May 4th, at Churchill Downs.

#/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Black Onyx 50-1
2 Oxbow 30-1
3 Revolutionary 10-1
4 Golden Soul 50-1
5 Normandy Invasion 12-1
6 Mylute 15-1
7 Giant Finish 50-1
8 Goldencents 5-1
9 Overanalyze 15-1
10 Palace Malice 20-1
11 Lines of Battle 30-1
12 Itsmyluckyday 15-1
13 Falling Sky 50-1
14 Verrazano 4-1
15 Charming Kitten 20-1
16 Orb 7-2
17 Will Take Charge 20-1
18 Frac Daddy 50-1
19 Java's War 15-1
20 Vyjack 15-1

-Keelerman

Kentucky Derby Contender Profile: NORMANDY INVASION

Owner: Fox Hill Farms, Inc.
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Betz/Kidder/Gainesway/Graves/D.J. Stable/Cole
Jockey: Javier Castellano

RACE RECORD

Age 3

2nd Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. II)
5th Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)

Age 2

2nd Remsen Stakes (gr. II)
1st Maiden Special Weight
5th Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Pulpit
	Tapit
		Tap Your Heels
Normandy Invasion
		Boston Harbor
	Boston Lady
		Gay Senorita

Keelerman's Derby Top Twelve 4-27-13

(Note: With just one week remaining before the Kentucky Derby, I have decided to shorten this week's top twenty down to a top twelve. Enjoy!)

1. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's had two exceptional workouts at Churchill Downs, including a sharp half-mile in :48 1/5 just this morning. Departing's victory in the Illinois Derby last Saturday only enhances Revolutionary's credentials, and I'm feeling more and more confident in his chances with every passing day.

2. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Was sharp as could be in his final workout this morning, breezing five-eighths in company with the stakes-placed mare Authenticity and getting the distance in a quick :59 2/5. My biggest concern is how he will react to the expected faster pace of the Derby, but the fact that he did rate off the lead in the Wood Memorial is encourarging.

3. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He turned in a jaw-dropper of a workout this morning at Churchill, blazing five furlongs in :59 flat while recording splits of :11 4/5, :23 1/5, :34 4/5, and :46 3/5, according to Bloodhorse.com. That's one of those workouts that could end up famous after the race, like Barbaro's :46 flat half-mile heading into the 2006 Derby. Normandy Invasion simply seems to be flourishing right now, and if he wasn't already a major win contender before this work, he certainly is now.

4. Orb (Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Trained by Shug McGaughey
Arrived at Churchill Downs the day after breezing five furlongs in 1:02.10 at Payson Park Training Center. It was his second work since the Florida Derby, with one more scheduled for either Sunday or Monday. According to reports, he's been galloping strongly at Churchill, and seems to be coming up to the race in peak form. He's already proven that he can adapt to many different pace scenarios. Now, he just has to get a good trip.

5. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
Turned in his final pre-Derby workout on April 25th, breezing a half-mile in a very slow :53 flat. It certainly wasn't a stellar work, but coming off of a solid one-mile breeze the week before, it didn't need to be anything serious. I can't believe how the excitement surrounding this colt just disappeared following his runner-up effort in the Florida Derby. It really wasn't that bad of a race, especially coming off of a two-month layoff, and he may very well be sitting on the performance of his life.

6. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Breezed five furlongs in a respectable 1:01 flat on Monday, and -- according to DRF.com -- it was a very good work indeed, with a strong gallop out and solid fractions. The pace scenario, in my opinion, will be the key to success in the Derby. He can't take off the pace like he did in the Arkansas Derby, but at the same time, he shouldn't be the pacesetter. I would like to see him racing third, fourth, or fifth while in the clear on the outside, tracking what should be a fair pace before making his bid on the final turn. He showed in the Rebel Stakes that he has the acceleration to seize command of a race on the turn, and if he can do that in the Derby, it's going to be very hard to beat him.

7. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like stablemates Revolutionary and Verrazano, Palace Malice had a very good morning, breezing a half-mile in company with Overanalyze and getting the distance in :47 1/5, the second-fastest time of the morning at that distance. I haven't formed a very strong opinion of him yet -- wheeling back off of two weeks rest to run in the Blue Grass is not a typical Todd Pletcher training technique -- but he should definitely appreciate the return to dirt in the Derby, and today's workout was a major step in the right direction.

8. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Turned in his final pre-Derby workout on Thursday, traversing six furlongs in a moderate 1:16 1/5. Overall, it was a solid work, with a final three furlongs in about :36 flat, but let's not forget that O'Neill's Derby winner I'll Have Another clocked the distance in 1:13 4/5 in his final pre-Derby work last year.

9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
As mentioned above, he breezed a half-mile in company with Palace Malice this morning, clocking the distance in a bullet :47 flat. While certainly an impressive work on the surface, it becomes even more impressive when one considers that it was -- in my opinion -- his best work of the year by a large margin. This is a colt that breezed five furlongs in 1:01.30 prior to winning the Arkansas Derby. Granted, you can make a case that the work was too sharp, by I see it as a very encouraging sign.

10. Vyjack (Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky) Trained by Rudy Rodriguez
Breezed five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 2/5 on Friday at Churchill, but according to DRF.com, he was under quite a bit of pressure throughout and wasn't particularly impressive. I am still intrigued by his chances heading into the Derby, but the combination of his pedigree, so-so workout, and breathing incident in the Wood Memorial leave me slightly less enthusiastic than I was immediately after the Wood Memorial.

11. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Turned in another solid one-mile workout last Sunday at Churchill, going the distance in 1:41 3/5. He is expected to turn in one more workout within the next couple of days, although given the disdain he displayed for mud in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), I would hope that his final workout comes on a day when the track is fast.

12. Mylute (Midnight Lute - Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations) Trained by Tom Amoss
Coming off of a sharp :47 4/5 half-mile breeze on April 21st, it wasn't at all surprising to see Mylute turn in a much more moderate :50 3/5 work this morning. He's still got plenty of questions to answer, the main one regarding his ability to handle ten furlongs, but if he gets a quick enough pace in front of him, he should come running.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 4-13-13

1. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Although many are knocking his Wood Memorial effort as a sub-par performance -- by his own lofty standards, that is -- there were really a number of positive aspects to his effort that signal further improvement in Louisville. For one thing, he was content to settle off the lead for the first time in his career -- a major step forward. Secondly, while the pace was slow, he absolutely flew home, running his third quarter in :24.12 and his fourth in :23.98. If he does that in the Derby, he could end the race on the far turn.

2. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Taking a look once again at the chart of his Louisiana Derby winner, I still can't get past the move he made going round the far turn. He simply inhaled the majority of the field while sweeping past horses on the far outside. Then, after being caught by Mylute at the eighth pole, he somehow managed to find another gear to win by a neck -- with a final eighth in a strong :12.52! That he was able to make such a spectacular run around the turn and still finish up that fast is amazing.

3. Orb (Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Trained by Shug McGaughey

I really liked the way that he sat closer to the pace in the Florida Derby, proving that he's not just a one-dimensional closer. Of mild concern was the :13.08 second final eighth, but given that Orb seemed to be striding out powerfully at the finish, I'm not too worried about the slow fraction. Remember, he did the same thing in his allowance victory three starts back.

4. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Only needs a top four finish in the Arkansas Derby to seal his berth in the Derby, but quite frankly, I would be disappointed with anything less than a 1-2 effort. This colt just keeps surprising me with every race, showing new dimensions, quicker acceleration, stronger finishes, and more determination. He'll have to overcome starting from post position ten, but I think he's sitting on another big move forward.

5. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert

This is one of those colts that is either going to romp in the Arkansas Derby -- like Bodemeister did last year -- or disappoint and never really contend. As you might guess by my ranking, I am of the opinion that he will run huge. I really liked the move that he made entering the stretch in his allowance victory, reeling in the good colt Manando with powerful strides to win in decisive fashion. However, he has no Derby points to his credit, so a 1-2 finish is going to be very important.

6. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown

Closed well into the slow Wood Memorial pace to finish second, beaten three-quarters of a length, but he never appeared to be in a position to win the race. Even if the race had been another furlong longer, I think Verrazano would have found another gear and held him off. Nevertheless, it was a huge step in the right direction for Normandy Invasion, who only needs three weeks of good training to stamp himself as one of the major contenders in Louisville.

7. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.

He pretty much ran the race that I thought he would in the Florida Derby, tracking the pace in fourth before accelerating around the turn to take command. I was just surprised to see him put up so little fight against Orb, while outfinishing stretch-out sprinter Merit Man by just 2 1/4 lengths. Obviously, he wasn't fully cranked for the race -- not with five weeks left until the Kentucky Derby -- but then again, I doubt Orb was either. I still believe that Itsmyluckyday can be a contender in the Derby, but he may need to build up his stamina between now and then.

8. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill

Turned in the performance of his life in the Santa Anita Derby, tracking the pace in second before taking command of the lead. Then, when Flashback moved up to challenge, he found another gear, and the two colts powered away from the rest of the field in a visually eye-catching performance. Maybe he didn't have the quickest of final fractions, but this was a huge step forward for Goldencents, and after seeing what Doug O'Neill did with I'll Have Another last year, one has to consider Goldencents one of the top contenders for the Derby.

9. Vyjack (Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky) Trained by Rudy Rodriguez

Reportedly came out of his third-place finish in the Wood Memorial with some mucus in his airways, which makes his one-length defeat all the more impressive. There are some legitimate questions about his ability to stay ten furlongs, and he is currently without a rider, but this colt could be a real dark horse heading into the Derby if people disregard him off of his Wood Memorial defeat.

10. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

The announcement that Will Take Charge will train up to the Derby -- rather than run in the Blue Grass Stakes -- isn't really surprising, given that Lukas mentioned the possibility shortly after the colt won the Rebel Stakes. A seven-week layoff probably isn't completely ideal, but it's certainly better than leaving your race at Keeneland over the always-tricky Polytrack.

11. Den's Legacy (Medaglia d'Oro - Sunshine Song, by War Chant) Trained by Bob Baffert

He'll get a chance to make a major break-through in the Arkansas Derby, where he can stamp his ticket to the Derby with a top-three finish. Given the consistency he has showed throughout his career, and the way he ran when trapped on a dull rail in the Rebel Stakes, he may just be good enough to come away with the victory.

12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Runs back in the Blue Grass Stakes off of just two weeks rest, thanks to a disastrous trip in the Louisiana Derby that resulted in a seventh-place finish -- without ever getting a real chance to run. This is a colt that deserves to be in the Derby, as he really has flashed a great deal of talent despite tough trips, but the fact that his Derby fate will be decided over the Keeneland Polytrack -- over which he has no experience -- will make his task of making the Derby field extremely difficult.

13. Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) Trained by Kelly Breen

Turned in his first workout at Churchill Downs this morning, going five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 3/5. the third-fastest of the morning at that distance. He comes into the Derby as a bit of an unknown on dirt, with his primary success having come on Polytrack and turf, but a few more works like that should have him ready to run the race of his life on the first Saturday in May.

14. Govenor Charlie (Midnight Lute - Silverbulletway, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert

He's had a couple of easy half-mile breezes since his Sunland Derby win, the most recent being timed in :48 1/5 seconds. I still don't really know what to make of him, what with just three starts under his belt, but we'll get a little clearer idea of how good he is when Footbridge -- whom Govenor Charlie beat in a Santa Anita maiden race -- runs in the Blue Grass Stakes this afternoon.

15. Java's War (War Pass - Java, by Rainbow Quest) Trained by Kenny McPeek'

He gets his chance to make the Derby field when he faces thirteen rivals in a wide-open edition of the Blue Grass Stakes. While I am of the opinion that Java's War will eventually prove best on synthetic and turf tracks -- thus, fitting perfectly in a race like the Blue Grass -- the way he ran against Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby leaves me hopeful that handling the dirt at Churchill will be within his capabilities.

16. Rydilluc (Medaglia d'Oro - Swift and Classy, by Clever Trick) Trained by Gary Contessa

Rydilluc is another Blue Grass contender that strikes me as being better suited to turf and synthetic tracks, thus looming as a legitimate contender to take home a major Derby prep and head to Louisville without proven form on dirt. There's no denying that he is simply brilliant on turf -- his Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) victory was spectacular, as was his allowance win two starts back -- but he was beaten 22 1/4 lengths in his lone start on dirt. Can he win the Blue Grass? Absolutely. Can he win the Derby? Hard to say. If he gets that far, we'll have to wait and see how he trains at Churchill before casting any opinions one way or the other.

17. Uncaptured (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) Trained by Mark Casse

He ran a huge race finishing second in the Spiral Stakes, especially when one considers that it was his first start since November. Now he's got to try and take one more step forward and finish fourth or better in the Blue Grass Stakes. He's 2-for-2 over the dirt at Churchill, so we know he likes the track. Now, he just needs to earn a few more points to assure himself a spot in the Derby field.

18. Mylute (Midnight Lute - Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations) Trained by Tom Amoss

Gave Revolutionary a terrific fight in the Louisiana Derby, briefly claiming the lead inside the eighth pole before losing by just a neck. It was a grand performance, but Amoss expressed concerns -- both before and after the Louisiana Derby -- about his colt's ability to handle the nine-furlong distance. Clearly, Mylute handled it just fine -- but can he handle the additional furlong he will face in Louisville?

19. Lines of Battle (War Front - Black Speck, by Arch) Trained by Aidan O'Brien

This year's version of Master of Hounds and Daddy Long Legs will try and parlay victory in the UAE Derby into success at Churchill, something his stablemates before him were unable to accomplish. I certainly wouldn't count him out, given that he has a strong dirt pedigree, but it's a long trip from Dubai to the United States, and you have to wonder if it will affect his performance.

20. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Remsen winner will look to rebound from a poor effort in the Gotham when he takes on Oxbow, War Academy, and Den's Legacy in the Arkansas Derby. He's going to need a 1-2 finish to secure a berth in the Derby, which won't be easy, but it's worth remembering that Pletcher's lone Derby winner -- Super Saver -- used this race as a springboard to Churchill.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-23-13

Get ready. The semi-final round has started. From here on out, mistakes cannot be made. The stakes have been increased to five times higher than they were before.

This is the second stage of Road to the Kentucky Derby. All previous Derby prep races mean little to nothing. No longer are the Derby candidates competing for a mere ten points to the winner. They are now competing for fifty points, which should be more than enough to secure them a berth in the Run for the Roses.

Two such fifty-point races are scheduled to be conducted today, and perhaps as a result of their increased value, both events have drawn huge, competitive fields.

A victory in either of these races will assure you a spot in the Derby. A runner-up effort will put you right in contention. A third-place finish will keep you on the trail. A fourth-place finish will garner a few token points. Anything worse may end up keeping you out of the Derby.

The second stage has begun. Let's start handicapping.

Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)

(Note: At the time of writing, Sky Captain had already been scratched from the Fountain of Youth, but Falling Sky, a later scratch, was still in the race.)

In ways, this race will be the most anticipated of the weekend, having drawn the unbeaten CashCall Futurity (gr. I) stakes winner Violence. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Medaglia d'Oro also has a victory in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) on his record, stamping him as a colt of exceptional quality. His Futurity win was especially impressive, as he gave a very good impression in the homestretch and finished up strongly despite tracking a fairly strong early pace. Furthermore, he's drawn gate three for today's race, a perfect post draw considering the short run to the first turn. Add in his bullet five-furlong work last week, and you have yourself a very deserving favorite.

However, from a Beyer speed figure perspective, Violence holds no real edge. He earned a 92 for his CashCall victory, a figure that has been matched, nearly matched, or exceeded by four of his rivals. Furthermore, this will be his first start since December, and there's always the possibility that he'll need to get a race under his belt before returning to top form.

If that is the case, there are plenty of other colts to choose from. Personally, I find Speak Logistics very intriguing. Trained by Edward Plesa Jr., who upset Eclipse champion Shanghai Bobby last month with Itsmyluckyday, Speak Logistics showed great talent as a two-year-old, romping to victory in the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes at Calder while earning a Beyer of 90. A run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) yielded less-than-stellar results -- he finished seventh -- but he was only beaten 5 3/4 lengths after tracking a quick pace. His most recent run came in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs, where he finished fourth after getting cut off while making what appeared to be a winning move along the rail. He's drawn a bit wide in post eight, but if he can avoid getting hung wide on the first turn, I think Speak Logistics will turn in a good effort.

Cerro and He's Had Enough also deserve considerable respect. The first-mentioned colt won a nine-furlong allowance race in front-running fashion here at Gulfstream last month, giving a generally good impression while earning a respectable speed figure. Trained by Graham Motion and owned by Team Valor International, Cerro seems to be improving in leaps and bounds, and if he can continue his upward trajectory later this afternoon, he may be poised to launch himself into the Derby picture in a big way.

As for He's Had Enough, you've got to give respect to any colt that is beaten a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but his most recent efforts have caused the son of Tapit to lose some of his luster. A nine-length defeat to Violence in the CashCall Futurity was followed by a nearly seven-length loss to Flashback in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II). Now, He's Had Enough had a legitimate excuse in the Lewis, as the slow pace and small field forced him to try tracking the early pace rather than closing from beyond, which has been his most successful style. Nevertheless, he would need a career-best effort to defeat Violence, and that may be difficult to do while starting from post nine.

As deep as this field is, it comes as somewhat of a surprise that Falling Sky is the only other graded stakes winner, aside from Violence, entered in the race. Winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) last month, Falling Sky possesses a great deal of tactical speed, which he used to steal the Davis in gate-to-wire fashion. However, he was tiring noticeably at the finish of the Davis, lending to the belief that a mile and a sixteenth may be a bit beyond his best distance. Drawing gate ten will make his task even more difficult.

Orb and Majestic Hussar were both impressive winning allowance races here at Gulfstream last month, with Orb closing from last to win a nine-furlong event and Majestic Hussar sprinting to a clear victory over Palace Malice in a seven-furlong affair. In both cases, however, they have things to prove. Orb, after unleashing a strong fourth-quarter run to take the lead, slowed down drastically in the final furlong of his allowance victory, traversing the distance in :13.36 seconds while allowing runner-up Duke of the City to regain some lost ground. Majestic Hussar will be running beyond seven furlongs for the first time, and must prove that he can be as good on a fast track as he is on off track -- both of his victories have come over sloppy, sealed tracks.

Rounding out the field are Joshua's Comprise, fourth in both the Gulfstream Park Derby and Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III); Elmutahid, a dominating maiden winner in the slop here at Gulfstream last month; and Sr. Quisqueyano, runner-up in the Gulfstream Park Derby and a distant eighth in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). All have shown flashes of talent, the latter colt especially, but all three would need to show great improvement to upset the favorites.

Selections: Violence, Speak Logistics, Cerro

Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)

(Note: At the time of writing, He's Had Enough, Departing, and Sunbean have been scratched.)

Personally, I am looking forward to this race even more than the Fountain of Youth, for while the Risen Star lacks a big-name star like Violence, the overall depth of the Risen Star makes it a very appealing race with many possible outcomes.

The favorite will almost undoubtedly be Normandy Invasion, who turned in a simply spectacular rally around the far turn of last year's Remsen Stakes (gr. II), making up seven lengths in a mere quarter-mile before eventually finishing second by a nose. The Chad Brown-trainee has been training sharply for his return, and seems to be sitting on another huge race. The lone concern is that the long Fair Grounds homestretch may reveal a potential stamina deficit, as Normandy Invasion's pedigree is not really geared toward route races, but going a mile and a sixteenth, I really don't think it will prove to be an issue.

One of the more interesting horses in the race is Code West, who ships in from California for trainer Bob Baffert. A strongly-bred son of Lemon Drop Kid, Code West enters off of a runner-up effort to Super Ninety Nine in a one-mile allowance race -- and as we all know, Super Ninety Nine returned to demolish the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn last Monday. Furthermore, Code West is bred to relish off-tracks, something which is highly likely at Fair Grounds today. With Martin Garcia flying in to ride the colt, I believe that Code West has an excellent shot at upsetting Normandy Invasion, assuming he gets a decent trip from post two.

Another major contender is Oxbow, who turned in one of the most impressive performances of the Derby prep season when winning the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) here at Fair Grounds by 11 1/2 lengths. In the homestretch -- while all the other runners were weaving and exhausted -- Oxbow was still running straight as an arrow, pouring on speed to win in simply spectacular fashion. Some have pointed to the fact that he set a slow pace in the LeComte, and feel he will lose when forced to set faster fractions. Perhaps that will be the case, further down the road. But with no other true speed horses entered in the Risen Star, who’s to say Oxbow won't get the same slow pace today?

Palace Malice, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, probably has the speed to match strides with Oxbow early -- he tracked a strong pace in a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream last month en route to a runner-up finish -- but he seems to prefer rallying from a few lengths off the lead, which is where I expect him to be today. While this race will mark his first start around two turns, the fact that he is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin suggests that the added distance will not pose a problem. And with Fair Grounds master Rosie Napravnik in the saddle, he should get a good trip as well.

No Derby prep would be complete without a highly promising up-and-coming maiden winner, which is exactly what Proud Strike is. After finishing third and second in his first two starts, Proud Strike came through with a dominating 7 1/2-length triumph last time out, for which he earned a strong Beyer speed figure of 91. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that Gary Stevens, the recently unretired Hall of Fame jockey, has flown in from California to ride him. Winning from the rail won't be the easiest of tasks, but at least we know he'll save some ground around the first turn!

Rounding out the projected main contenders is Mylute, who placed in a trio of stakes last year, including the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), in which he made an eye-catching five-wide rally around the far turn before flattening out a bit in the homestretch. He rebounded from that defeat to win a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance race here at Fair Grounds by a massive 10 3/4 lengths, thus stamping him as one of the favorites for this race. However, it's worth noting that Rosie Napravnik -- who rode Mylute in that allowance win -- has chosen to ride Palace Malice instead.

The rest of the entrants would have to step up sharply to contend for the top spot. Golden Soul finished second to Oxbow in the LeComte, but was, of course, beaten over eleven lengths. Agent has won two of his three starts, including a one-mile allowance race at Sam Houston, but lacks the speed figures to really be competitive. Likewise, Ive Struck a Nerve has turned in some nice efforts, including a runner-up finish in the Sugar Bowl Stakes two starts back, but was fourth in the LeComte and has never run a Beyer over 74. Bethel broke his maiden in a claiming race two starts back, then was fourth in a starter allowance race just six days ago. Hardrock Eleven fired a big one when beaten a half-length in the Allen's Landing Stakes last time out, but the distance could be just a bit challenging for him, and like others, his speed figures aren't very high. Circle Unbroken won the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) as a two-year-old, stamping himself as a quality colt, and while he was beaten 16 1/4 lengths when sixth in the LeComte, that was also his first start since August, and his trainer stated beforehand that the colt wasn't fully fit. I expect that Circle Unbroken will show an improved performance today, although whether or not it will be enough to contend for the top prize is open to question.

Selection: Oxbow, Code West, Normandy Invasion

-Keelerman

Risen Star Stakes entries: Oxbow, Normandy Invasion lead huge field of 15

A huge total of fifteen horses, including one also-eligible, have been entered in Saturday's $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds, making the 1 1/16th miles race one of the deepest and most contentious Kentucky Derby prep races of the year thus far.

A small sampling of the entries reveals names like Oxbow, winner of the LeComte Stakes (gr. III); Normandy Invasion, runner-up in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last November; Mylute, a hugely impressive allowance winner in January; He's Had Enough, runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I); and Palace Malice, runner-up to Majestic Hussar in a recent seven-furlong allowance race.

Shipping in from California is Bob Baffert's Code West, runner-up to the well-regarded Super Ninety Nine in a recent allowance race. A son of Lemon Drop Kid out of a Saint Ballado mare, Code West should have no trouble with the distance of the Risen Star, and should appreciate the long homestretch.

Gary Stevens, who has won three stakes races since returning to the saddle last month, will ride the promising maiden winner Proud Strike.

Post Positions:
1 Proud Strike
2 Code West
3 Agent
4 Golden Soul
5 Mylute
6 Palace Malice
7 Hardrock Eleven
8 Ive Struck a Nerve
9 Normandy Invasion
10 Oxbow
11 Bethel
12 He's Had Enough
13 Circle Unbroken
14 Departing
Also-eligible:
15 Sunbean

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 2-13-13

1. Tiz the Truth (Tiznow - Truly Blessed, by French Deputy) Trained by Bob Baffert

The dam side of Tiz the Truth's pedigree is rather interesting to examine. His broodmare sire is French Deputy, winner of the 1995 Jerome Stakes (gr. II) and a highly successful sire in Japan, his top progeny including 2001 Japan Cup Dirt (Jpn-I) winner Kurofune and 2002 Whitney Invitational (gr. I) winner Left Bank. As for his tail-female family, you can argue that it is a bit weak -- going back three generations, it has produced just one black-type winner, that being Tiz the Truth's half-brother Notional. On the other hand, his third dam is Lady Tramp, winner of the 1967 Alcibiades Stakes and a full-sister to the multiple stakes winner Popular Demand.

2. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Surprise! I'll bet you didn't expect to see him up this high! There are a couple of reasons for his sudden rise in my rankings. First off, I was very encouraged by his sharp workout on February 9th, which signals that he should be ready to make his long-anticipated three-year-old debut sometime in mid-March. Secondly, please note that one of the few horses to have beaten Titletown Five -- Park City -- recently returned from a long layoff to win an allowance race at Gulfstream Park.

3. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown

Turned in a bullet workout on February 10th, breezing five-eighths in company with Brown's promising maiden winner Integrity and getting the distance in 1:01.44. From a pedigree perspective, ten furlongs may be a bit far for him, but I still can't get over how impressive his far-turn rally was in the Remsen Stakes last fall. If he can replicate that this year, he should be a contender in Louisville.

4. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.

There has been some talk that Itsmyluckyday's pedigree may not carry him a mile and a quarter. Perhaps it isn't the strongest classic pedigree I've ever seen, but the impression that Itsmyluckyday gave me in both the Gulfstream Park Derby and the Holy Bull leaves me with little doubt that he can be successful at ten furlongs. His great tactical speed, coupled with a powerful finishing kick, should make him a force in all the major races to come.

5. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher

His next start is scheduled to come in the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) on March 9th. I find it interesting to note that Todd Pletcher's lone Derby winner, Super Saver, also used the Tampa Bay Derby as a springboard to Louisville.

6. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher

With the plans being not to race him until the Florida Derby (gr. I) at the end of March, it's not surprising that he hasn't turned in a timed workout since the Holy Bull. The two-month gap between prep races is a bit unorthodox, but then again, it's the same pattern that worked for I'll Have Another last year.

7. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher

He has been shipped from New York to Florida to continue his training, which means that he is now considered to be one of Pletcher's first-string runners. A number of options are being contemplated for his next start, including the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Wood Memorial, but nothing definite has been decided.

8. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert

He's already back on the work tab, having breezed a half-mile in :47.80 on February 12th at Santa Anita. In the San Felipe, I would like to see him really get pressured by Goldencents through a fairly quick pace. And so long as that happens, I don't care if he wins or loses the race -- so long as he is right there at the finish. Kind of like Bodemeister in the 2012 San Felipe Stakes.

9. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher

On February 10th, he turned in his penultimate work for the Fountain of Youth, traversing five furlongs in 1:01.01 in company with Palace Malice. It was definitely a major step in the right direction, and a considerably sharper move than his work from one week earlier, so it appears that Violence is going to be ready to roll on February 23rd.

10. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Still no word on where this colt will race next. Pletcher already has horses pointing toward the Risen Star, Fountain of Youth, Gotham, Tampa Bay Derby, and Rebel Stakes -- which is pretty much every Derby prep race there is between now and the Spiral Stakes. So with that in mind, it seems likely that Capo Bastone is going to have to run against one on his stablemates -- perhaps in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) against Violence.

11. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert

Turned in another really nice workout on February 12th, traversing a half-mile in :47.80 at Santa Anita. It has been confirmed that his next start will come in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) on Sunday, so we'll soon be able to get a better feel for what kind of a colt he is.

12. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Went five furlongs in a nice 1:01.93 at Palm Meadows on February 10th, another nice step toward a start in the Gotham. Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing which Overanalyze shows up in the Gotham -- will we see the one that ground his way to victory in the Remsen, or the one that showcased an eye-catching turn-of-foot to win the Futurity?

13. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Cruised five furlongs in a moderate 1:02.60 this morning, but don't let the slow time fool you -- the track seemed a bit heavy this morning, and his work was actually the second-fastest of the morning at that distance, missing the bullet by just a fifth of a second.

14. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert

Breezed a half-mile in :48.00 at Santa Anita on February 12th, after which it was announced that he will make his next start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds. The more I think about this colt the more I start to like him, which explains why he is ranked 14th this week after sitting 21st last week.

15. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark Casse

His career thus far has been eerily similar to that of his stablemate Prospective. Both Dynamic Sky and Prospective began their careers at Woodbine; both finished off-the-board in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Both began their three-year-old season with a victory in the Pasco; both then ran second in the Sam. F Davis Stakes. Hopefully, Dynamic Sky's Derby dreams will end better than Prospective's, for the latter colt clipped heels at the start of the Derby and wound up eighteenth.

16. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Breezed five furlongs in 1:01.01 on February 10th in preparation for a start in the Risen Star Stakes, where he will be ridden for the first time by Rosie Napravnik. As it will be his two-turn debut, I'd just like to see him finish up strongly to secure a spot in the superfecta.

17. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin

No word yet on where this colt will run next, but he hasn't breezed since his maiden victory on January 26th, so it's probably safe to assume that he won't seem him again until March.

18. Cerro (Mr. Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion

Although his biggest success has come on dirt, Cerro actually has a strong turf pedigree, being a full brother to the stakes-placed two-time turf winner Sacham Spirit. And don't forget that his sire, Mr. Greeley, has produced a number of successful turf runners, including Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (gr. I) winner Aruna. So it should come as no surprise if Cerro takes to the turf strongly in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) next month.

19. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill

Turned in yet another bullet workout this morning, cruising six furlongs in 1:13.40 at Santa Anita. O'Neill seems to be training him the same way he trained I'll Have Another last year, with numerous long, quick breezes. Will it result in another Derby success? Time will tell.

20. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen

His next start is scheduled to come in the Risen Star Stakes, where he will face a very deep and very talented field of runners. But here's the interesting part -- jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rode Proud Strike to his maiden victory, but has chosen to ride recent Fair Grounds allowance winner Departing in the Risen Star. As a result, Proud Strike will be ridden by a new jockey in the Risen Star. That new jockey -- wouldn't you know it! -- is Gary Stevens.

21. Fortify (Distorted Humor - Kotuku, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mahmoud Al Zarooni.

He's drawn gate four in the UAE 2,000 Guineas (UAE-III), where he will face -- among others -- the unbeaten group I winner Soft Falling Rain and group III winner Glass Office. Please note that Fortify is no longer trained by Kiaran McLaughlin -- he is now trained by Mamoud Al Zarooni.

*****

With a number of major Derby preps coming up over the next several days, we can expect a number of major changes to my next top twenty. Regardless of what happens, you can probably expect to see Dewey Square and Uncaptured back on the list, as both have turned in recent workouts and seem to be back on the right track.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 2-8-13

1. Tiz the Truth (Tiznow - Truly Blessed, by Deputy Minister) Trained by Bob Baffert
Are you surprised? You had better be -- I myself couldn't believe it when I decided to put this colt at the top of my list. But his maiden victory on Saturday was other-worldly. Yes, the pace he set was definitely on the slow side, and it's not like there was a world-class field behind him. But what I just can't get over is that he closed his final two furlongs in :11.61 and :11.87 seconds. That is just mind-boggling. The last maiden I can remember doing something similar was Bodemeister. Furthermore, Tiz the Truth's final time of 1:36.28 was quicker than the one-mile fractions of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (1:36.53) and the Strub Stakes (1:36.47) later in the day. Oh yeah, and as an added bonus, Gary Stevens is his rider. Imagine the excitement that would ensue should Gary make it to the Derby!

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He's up to five furlongs in his training, having breezed that distance in 1:01.23 seconds on February 3rd. Displacing him from the top spot has nothing to do with a change of opinion or heart -- I just really liked Tiz the Truth's effort and wanted to put him at #1.

3. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
He is to have just one more prep race before the Kentucky Derby, that coming in the Florida Derby (gr. I) on March 30th. However, it's interesting to note that he has only earned 10 Kentucky Derby qualification points -- and with that in mind, he's going to have to be sharp for the Florida Derby, because he can't afford a poor finish.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like his Holy Bull conqueror Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby will use the Florida Derby as his only other stop on the road to Louisville. But unlike Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby is positioned a bit better in terms of qualification points, having already earned 24. A third-place finish should secure him a spot in the Derby, and even a fourth-place finish would probably suffice. Truth be told, the chances of him performing that badly are remote, but after what happened to Union Rags and El Padrino last year -- who knows?

5. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Forget the low Beyer speed figure. Forget the fact that he won by just a neck. Revolutionary's performance in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) last Saturday was among the most spectacular I have ever seen from a three-year-old colt. After breaking slowly and winding up dead-last rounding the final turn, Revolutionary weaved his way between horses in the homestretch, saw an opening between horses with about a sixteenth of a mile to go, and surged through to win in dramatic fashion. He had every right to lose that race, but he didn't. The guts to turn certain defeat into victory by rallying through tiny holes could prove useful in a race like the Derby.

6. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Tiz the Truth, Flashback got a very easy trip in his Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) victory, but did finish up well to win by over six lengths. It was a very good performance, and he obviously had something left in the tank, but I didn't think it was quite as sharp as Tiz the Truth's maiden victory earlier on the card. Regardless, there's plenty of potential for Flashback, who is likely to use the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) in March as a prep for the Santa Anita Derby.

7. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Up until recently, I thought that Gunderman was a pretty decent horse. Then I watched him get beat nearly seventeen lengths by Verrazano. So . . . either Gunderman isn't the horse I thought he was, or this Verrazano colt is nothing short of amazing . . . I'll go with the latter. Words cannot describe how powerful Verrazano looked on Saturday, drawing off under virtually no urging to win a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park in 1:34.80. That was an unreal performance, and the scary part is that he clearly had something left in the tank.

8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Call me stubborn if you like, but I'm putting him back on my list. This morning, he breezed for the first time since breaking his maiden, going three furlongs in :37 1/5. I'll admit he's running out of time to join the Triple Crown trail, but if any trainer can get a horse like this to the Derby, it's Lukas.

9. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He still seems to be several works away from his first start, as his most recent breeze was five-eighths in 1:02.90, but I still think that his efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year were two deceptively good efforts. I'm looking forward to his return, whenever it may be.

10. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
With just a little more than two weeks remaining before his seasonal debut in the Fountain of Youth, I expect we'll be seeing a sharp workout from Violence this weekend. I'm still having a ton of trouble gauging just how good this colt is, so the Fountain of Youth should go a long way toward determining his future rankings.

11. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
Remember last week, when I noted in confusion that War Academy had breezed on turf? Well, he went back to dirt for his next work, traversing six furlongs in 1:12.60 from the gate on February 4th. He is nominated -- along with stablemates Belvin and Shakin It Up -- to the $150,000 San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) on February 17th, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is entered.

12. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like I've said in the past, I really don't know where to put this colt, and I won't until I see how he runs in the Gotham. There's no denying that his victory in the Remsen (gr. II) last fall was excellent. On the other hand, he seemed somewhat one-paced that day, and he's probably going to have to show a little better turn-of-foot to win a race like the Derby.

13. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Here's another colt that I'm not sure what to do with. His LeComte win was great. He seemed to have something left in the tank at the finish. But he set a slow pace -- can he go faster early and still finish strongly? This will be the key to his future success, and I hope to see him answer that question in the Risen Star.

14. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark Casse
I thought his performance in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) was good, but not quite what I was hoping for. True, he got hung wide around both turns, and he did finish up well in deep stretch. But I didn't like the way he was drifting in early stretch. Had he maintained a straight course, I am confident he could have won. Hopefully, he'll straighten out and keep his focus better in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) next month.

15. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It sounds as though he'll make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd, where we'll get a chance to see how he stacks up against Normandy Invasion and Oxbow. Breezed a half-mile in the good time of :48.19 seconds on February 3rd, so he should certainly be ready in time.

16. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
There are plenty of options available for this promising colt's next start, including the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) on March 2nd and the Wood Memorial (gr. I) on April 6th. Both races would seem to fit his schedule well, and he certainly has the foundation to jump into graded stakes company. After all, he's already got six starts under his belt -- that's two more than Verrazano and Flashback combined! :)

17. Cerro (Mr. Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion
He'll get another big test on March 3rd, when he contests the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park. From there, he'll head to the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway Park, where he will try and give Team Valor a three-peat following the victories of Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Went the Day Well in 2012.

18. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
It's beginning to look as though the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) on March 9th could be one of the best Derby preps of the year, at least from an anticipation standpoint. Both Goldencents and Flashback are pointing toward the race, with He's Had Enough, Tiz the Truth, Demonic, Tiz a Minister, and others possible as well. It should be a very stiff test for Goldencents, who will have to prove that he can handle the presence of other quality front-runners and still hold off the closers.

19. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen
Breezed five furlongs on February 4th in a very sharp 1:00.60 at Fair Grounds, signaling that a race like the Risen Star could be next on the agenda.

20. Fortify (Distorted Humor - Kotuku, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
After months of wondering why he wasn't on the work tab, it hit me a few days ago. A Godolphin-owned three-year-old . . . why, he's probably in Dubai! That turned out to be the case, as it was recently announced that Fortify will make his three-year-old debut in the UAE 2,000 Guineas on February 14th. Hard to say if he's being pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, but he certainly turned in some nice efforts last year, and if he finds success in Dubai -- who knows?

21. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert
A full-brother to 2009 Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) winner Charitable Man, this Bob Baffert-trainee recently returned from a three-month layoff to finish second in a one-mile allowance race at Santa Anita, behind fellow Baffert-trainee Super Ninety Nine. While Super Ninety Nine was more impressive on the day, I like the overall impression that Code West has given during his career, and his pedigree suggests that ten furlongs will be well within his range.

*****

As you may have noticed, Dewey Square has been removed from my top twenty. I had originally intended to leave him on, but with so many impressive efforts from up-and-comers last week, not much to say about this colt until he gets back on the work tab. To the best of my knowledge, no next-race plans have been announced, so we'll have to take a wait-and-see approach with this colt until further notice.

Also disappearing from this week's rankings are He's Had Enough, Frac Daddy, Will Take Charge, and Tiz a Minister. The first-mentioned colt has been dropped off of his disappointing third in the Robert B. Lewis, while the other two have been removed to make way for other up-and-coming runners.

Narrowly failing to make this week's list is Falling Sky, winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Give him a ton of credit -- he successfully stretched his speed around two turns and showed a lot of grit in holding off Dynamic Sky to win in good fashion. But while his pedigree suggests that ten furlongs could be within his range, he has given me the impression thus far that he may be at his best sprinting. We'll learn more about him in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) next month.

-Keelerman