Although many are knocking his Wood Memorial effort as a
sub-par performance -- by his own lofty standards, that is -- there were really
a number of positive aspects to his effort that signal further improvement in
Louisville. For one thing, he was content to settle off the lead for the first
time in his career -- a major step forward. Secondly, while the pace was slow,
he absolutely flew home, running his third quarter in :24.12 and his fourth in
:23.98. If he does that in the Derby, he could end the race on the far turn.
2. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
Taking a look once again at the chart of his Louisiana
Derby winner, I still can't get past the move he made going round the far turn.
He simply inhaled the majority of the field while sweeping past horses on the
far outside. Then, after being caught by Mylute at the eighth pole, he somehow
managed to find another gear to win by a neck -- with a final eighth in a
strong :12.52! That he was able to make such a spectacular run around the turn
and still finish up that fast is amazing.
3. Orb (Malibu
Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Trained by Shug McGaughey
I really liked the way that he sat closer to the pace in
the Florida Derby, proving that he's not just a one-dimensional closer. Of mild
concern was the :13.08 second final eighth, but given that Orb seemed to be
striding out powerfully at the finish, I'm not too worried about the slow
fraction. Remember, he did the same thing in his allowance victory three starts
back.
4. Oxbow (Awesome
Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Only needs a top four finish in the Arkansas Derby to
seal his berth in the Derby, but quite frankly, I would be disappointed with
anything less than a 1-2 effort. This colt just keeps surprising me with every
race, showing new dimensions, quicker acceleration, stronger finishes, and more
determination. He'll have to overcome starting from post position ten, but I
think he's sitting on another big move forward.
5. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
This is one of those colts that is either going to romp
in the Arkansas Derby -- like Bodemeister did last year -- or disappoint and
never really contend. As you might guess by my ranking, I am of the opinion
that he will run huge. I really liked the move that he made entering the
stretch in his allowance victory, reeling in the good colt Manando with
powerful strides to win in decisive fashion. However, he has no Derby points to
his credit, so a 1-2 finish is going to be very important.
6. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad
Brown
Closed well into the slow Wood Memorial pace to finish
second, beaten three-quarters of a length, but he never appeared to be in a
position to win the race. Even if the race had been another furlong longer, I
think Verrazano would have found another gear and held him off. Nevertheless,
it was a huge step in the right direction for Normandy Invasion, who only needs
three weeks of good training to stamp himself as one of the major contenders in
Louisville.
7. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained
by Edward Plesa, Jr.
He pretty much ran the race that I thought he would in
the Florida Derby, tracking the pace in fourth before accelerating around the
turn to take command. I was just surprised to see him put up so little fight
against Orb, while outfinishing stretch-out sprinter Merit Man by just 2 1/4
lengths. Obviously, he wasn't fully cranked for the race -- not with five weeks
left until the Kentucky Derby -- but then again, I doubt Orb was either. I
still believe that Itsmyluckyday can be a contender in the Derby, but he may
need to build up his stamina between now and then.
8. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Turned in the performance of his life in the Santa Anita
Derby, tracking the pace in second before taking command of the lead. Then,
when Flashback moved up to challenge, he found another gear, and the two colts
powered away from the rest of the field in a visually eye-catching performance.
Maybe he didn't have the quickest of final fractions, but this was a huge step
forward for Goldencents, and after seeing what Doug O'Neill did with I'll Have
Another last year, one has to consider Goldencents one of the top contenders
for the Derby.
9. Vyjack (Into
Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky) Trained by Rudy Rodriguez
Reportedly came out of his third-place finish in the Wood
Memorial with some mucus in his airways, which makes his one-length defeat all
the more impressive. There are some legitimate questions about his ability to
stay ten furlongs, and he is currently without a rider, but this colt could be
a real dark horse heading into the Derby if people disregard him off of his
Wood Memorial defeat.
10. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained
by D. Wayne Lukas
The announcement that Will Take Charge will train up to
the Derby -- rather than run in the Blue Grass Stakes -- isn't really
surprising, given that Lukas mentioned the possibility shortly after the colt
won the Rebel Stakes. A seven-week layoff probably isn't completely ideal, but
it's certainly better than leaving your race at Keeneland over the
always-tricky Polytrack.
11. Den's Legacy (Medaglia d'Oro - Sunshine Song, by War Chant) Trained by
Bob Baffert
He'll get a chance to make a major break-through in the
Arkansas Derby, where he can stamp his ticket to the Derby with a top-three
finish. Given the consistency he has showed throughout his career, and the way
he ran when trapped on a dull rail in the Rebel Stakes, he may just be good
enough to come away with the victory.
12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd
Pletcher
Runs back in the Blue Grass Stakes off of just two weeks
rest, thanks to a disastrous trip in the Louisiana Derby that resulted in a
seventh-place finish -- without ever getting a real chance to run. This is a
colt that deserves to be in the Derby, as he really has flashed a great deal of
talent despite tough trips, but the fact that his Derby fate will be decided
over the Keeneland Polytrack -- over which he has no experience -- will make
his task of making the Derby field extremely difficult.
13. Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) Trained by Kelly Breen
Turned in his first workout at Churchill Downs this
morning, going five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 3/5. the third-fastest of the
morning at that distance. He comes into the Derby as a bit of an unknown on
dirt, with his primary success having come on Polytrack and turf, but a few
more works like that should have him ready to run the race of his life on the
first Saturday in May.
14. Govenor Charlie (Midnight Lute - Silverbulletway, by Storm Cat) Trained
by Bob Baffert
He's had a couple of easy half-mile breezes since his
Sunland Derby win, the most recent being timed in :48 1/5 seconds. I still
don't really know what to make of him, what with just three starts under his
belt, but we'll get a little clearer idea of how good he is when Footbridge --
whom Govenor Charlie beat in a Santa Anita maiden race -- runs in the Blue
Grass Stakes this afternoon.
15. Java's War (War Pass - Java, by Rainbow Quest) Trained by Kenny McPeek'
He gets his chance to make the Derby field when he faces
thirteen rivals in a wide-open edition of the Blue Grass Stakes. While I am of
the opinion that Java's War will eventually prove best on synthetic and turf
tracks -- thus, fitting perfectly in a race like the Blue Grass -- the way he
ran against Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby leaves me hopeful that handling
the dirt at Churchill will be within his capabilities.
16. Rydilluc (Medaglia d'Oro - Swift and Classy, by Clever Trick) Trained by Gary
Contessa
Rydilluc is another Blue Grass contender that strikes me
as being better suited to turf and synthetic tracks, thus looming as a
legitimate contender to take home a major Derby prep and head to Louisville
without proven form on dirt. There's no denying that he is simply brilliant on
turf -- his Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) victory was spectacular, as was his
allowance win two starts back -- but he was beaten 22 1/4 lengths in his lone start
on dirt. Can he win the Blue Grass? Absolutely. Can he win the Derby? Hard to
say. If he gets that far, we'll have to wait and see how he trains at Churchill
before casting any opinions one way or the other.
17. Uncaptured (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) Trained by Mark Casse
He ran a huge race finishing second in the Spiral Stakes,
especially when one considers that it was his first start since November. Now
he's got to try and take one more step forward and finish fourth or better in
the Blue Grass Stakes. He's 2-for-2 over the dirt at Churchill, so we know he
likes the track. Now, he just needs to earn a few more points to assure himself
a spot in the Derby field.
18. Mylute (Midnight Lute - Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations) Trained by Tom Amoss
Gave Revolutionary a terrific fight in the Louisiana
Derby, briefly claiming the lead inside the eighth pole before losing by just a
neck. It was a grand performance, but Amoss expressed concerns -- both before
and after the Louisiana Derby -- about his colt's ability to handle the
nine-furlong distance. Clearly, Mylute handled it just fine -- but can he
handle the additional furlong he will face in Louisville?
19. Lines of Battle (War Front - Black Speck, by Arch) Trained by Aidan
O'Brien
This year's version of Master of Hounds and Daddy Long
Legs will try and parlay victory in the UAE Derby into success at Churchill,
something his stablemates before him were unable to accomplish. I certainly
wouldn't count him out, given that he has a strong dirt pedigree, but it's a
long trip from Dubai to the United States, and you have to wonder if it will
affect his performance.
20. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
Remsen winner will look to rebound from a poor effort in
the Gotham when he takes on Oxbow, War Academy, and Den's Legacy in the
Arkansas Derby. He's going to need a 1-2 finish to secure a berth in the Derby,
which won't be easy, but it's worth remembering that Pletcher's lone Derby
winner -- Super Saver -- used this race as a springboard to Churchill.
-Keelerman
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