Kentucky Derby point standings: Who will make the cut?

When Churchill Downs first made the announcement that they had created a point system that would qualify horses to the Kentucky Derby, it was believed that it would take about 40 points to assure a horse their spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate. Now, with just over two weeks remaining before the race, and with just two prep races remaining on the calendar, it appears as though that guess was wrong -- very wrong.

In fact, according to my calculations, you may not need even 20 points to make the race -- and maybe not even 10.

At this time, the top twenty colts on the Kentucky Derby point standings list are as follows:

1	Orb	150	$840,000
2	Verrazano	150	$810,000
3	Goldencents	129	$1,208,000
4	Java's War	122	$651,772
5	Overanalyze	110	$908,381
6	Revolutionary	110	$720,000
7	Lines of Battle	100	$1,261,089
8	Vyjack	70	$505,000
9	Will Take Charge	60	$512,971
10	Itsmyluckyday	50	$593,600
11	Govenor Charlie	50	$400,000
12	Black Onyx	50	$317,130
13	Palace Malice	50	$200,000
14	Normandy Invasion	44	$258,000
15	Frac Daddy	44	$240,596
16	Mylute	42	$363,365
17	Oxbow	36	$346,000
18	Super Ninety Nine	30	$308,000
19	Falling Sky	30	$207,500
20	Den's Legacy	20	$329,000

Now, barring injury, the top seventeen names on this list are considered definite for the Derby. But the next three horses -- Super Ninety Nine, Falling Sky, and Den's Legacy -- were all soundly beaten in their final Derby preps, leaving their connections to ponder whether to accept their virtually assured Derby berth or regroup in a smaller race, or perhaps wait for the Preakness.

Let us suppose for a moment that the connections of all three colts choose to skip the Derby. Now let's take a look at the horses ranked 21-25:

21	Charming Kitten	20	$206,000
22	Code West	20	$90,000
23	Tiz a Minister	20	$81,000
24	Golden Soul	14	$84,000
25	Power Broker	10	$225,000

From this list, we have two that would run in the Derby if given the opportunity -- Charming Kitten and Golden Soul. Code West is a possibility for the Derby, but is currently targeting the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) one week later at Belmont Park. Likewise, Tiz a Minister's connections had penciled in the Snow Chief Stakes at Betfair Hollywood Park following their colt's disappointing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, but with Tiz a Minister now on the verge of entering the top twenty, they are rethinking their decision. And how about Power Broker? A grade I winner last year, he was never involved in the Santa Anita Derby -- his first start since November -- but if he were to slip into the top twenty, might he be entered in the Derby?

Once again, let's suppose that the maybes -- Code West, Tiz a Minister, and Power Broker -- all chose to bypass the Derby in favor of other races. Thus, we now have a top twenty comprised of . . .

1	Orb	150	$840,000
2	Verrazano	150	$810,000
3	Goldencents	129	$1,208,000
4	Java's War	122	$651,772
5	Overanalyze	110	$908,381
6	Revolutionary	110	$720,000
7	Lines of Battle	100	$1,261,089
8	Vyjack	70	$505,000
9	Will Take Charge	60	$512,971
10	Itsmyluckyday	50	$593,600
11	Govenor Charlie	50	$400,000
12	Black Onyx	50	$317,130
13	Palace Malice	50	$200,000
14	Normandy Invasion	44	$258,000
15	Frac Daddy	44	$240,596
16	Mylute	42	$363,365
17	Oxbow	36	$346,000
18	Charming Kitten	20	$206,000
19	Golden Soul	14	$84,000
20	???	??	$??

That's right -- we have dipped all the way down to Golden Soul and still haven't got twenty horses! Who might fill that final spot? Let's take a look at the horses currently ranked 26-30 and see who we find . . .

26	Mr Palmer	10	$110,000
27	Abraham	10	$80,000
28	Elnaawi	10	$70,000
29	Narvaez	10	$50,000
30	Texas Bling	9	$245,200

This is where things get especially intriguing. There are actually a few horses in this point range -- such as Merit Man (20), Departing (20), West Hills Giant (20), Dynamic Sky (13), and Speak Logistics (11) -- but they are all definitely pointing toward other races, and are considered off the Derby trail. As for the five that I do list, Abraham and Narvaez are both entered in Saturday's Illinois Derby (gr. III) at Hawthorne, and it's unlikely -- although certainly not impossible -- that they could wheel back in the Derby if given the opportunity. As for the others, it's difficult to say. Mr Palmer and Elnaawi were both soundly beaten in the Wood Memorial, and Texas Bling finished next-to-last in the Arkansas Derby.

I could go further, but you get the idea. Should the connections of Super Ninety Nine, Falling Sky, Den's Legacy, Code West, Tiz a Minister, and Power Broker all choose to pass on the Derby -- a longshot, perhaps, but not out of the question -- then we could see a horse with just 10 qualification points wind up in the Derby!

Now, there are two other possibilities that I'd like to mention before concluding this post. One has to do with horses that haven't been nominated to the Triple Crown. Consider this -- Sunland Derby (gr. III) runner-up Show Some Magic and Arkansas Derby (gr. I) third-place finisher Carve have both earned 20 Derby qualfication points, and should their connections decide to put up the late nomination money -- which isn't inexpensive -- their colts would virtually assured of Derby berths. Secondly, there are two Derby prep races remaining on the schedule, those being the Lexington Stakes (gr. III) this Saturday at Keeneland and the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) one week before the Derby. Both races offer twenty points to the winner -- the magic number, by my caculations. To the best of my knowledge, Cerro and Sunbean in the Lexington Stakes could potentially end up in the Derby following a win -- although Cerro is more likely for the Preakness -- and in the Derby Trial, Titletown Five could wind up in the Run for the Roses if he garners the victory. So stay tuned -- the 2013 Kentucky Derby field isn't anywhere near finalized, and there may be plenty of changes still to come during the next two weeks!

-Keelerman