(Note: With just one week remaining before the Kentucky Derby, I have decided to shorten this week's top twenty down to a top twelve. Enjoy!)
1. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's had two exceptional workouts at Churchill Downs, including a sharp half-mile in :48 1/5 just this morning. Departing's victory in the Illinois Derby last Saturday only enhances Revolutionary's credentials, and I'm feeling more and more confident in his chances with every passing day.
2. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Was sharp as could be in his final workout this morning, breezing five-eighths in company with the stakes-placed mare Authenticity and getting the distance in a quick :59 2/5. My biggest concern is how he will react to the expected faster pace of the Derby, but the fact that he did rate off the lead in the Wood Memorial is encourarging.
3. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He turned in a jaw-dropper of a workout this morning at Churchill, blazing five furlongs in :59 flat while recording splits of :11 4/5, :23 1/5, :34 4/5, and :46 3/5, according to Bloodhorse.com. That's one of those workouts that could end up famous after the race, like Barbaro's :46 flat half-mile heading into the 2006 Derby. Normandy Invasion simply seems to be flourishing right now, and if he wasn't already a major win contender before this work, he certainly is now.
4. Orb (Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Trained by Shug McGaughey
Arrived at Churchill Downs the day after breezing five furlongs in 1:02.10 at Payson Park Training Center. It was his second work since the Florida Derby, with one more scheduled for either Sunday or Monday. According to reports, he's been galloping strongly at Churchill, and seems to be coming up to the race in peak form. He's already proven that he can adapt to many different pace scenarios. Now, he just has to get a good trip.
5. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
Turned in his final pre-Derby workout on April 25th, breezing a half-mile in a very slow :53 flat. It certainly wasn't a stellar work, but coming off of a solid one-mile breeze the week before, it didn't need to be anything serious. I can't believe how the excitement surrounding this colt just disappeared following his runner-up effort in the Florida Derby. It really wasn't that bad of a race, especially coming off of a two-month layoff, and he may very well be sitting on the performance of his life.
6. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Breezed five furlongs in a respectable 1:01 flat on Monday, and -- according to DRF.com -- it was a very good work indeed, with a strong gallop out and solid fractions. The pace scenario, in my opinion, will be the key to success in the Derby. He can't take off the pace like he did in the Arkansas Derby, but at the same time, he shouldn't be the pacesetter. I would like to see him racing third, fourth, or fifth while in the clear on the outside, tracking what should be a fair pace before making his bid on the final turn. He showed in the Rebel Stakes that he has the acceleration to seize command of a race on the turn, and if he can do that in the Derby, it's going to be very hard to beat him.
7. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like stablemates Revolutionary and Verrazano, Palace Malice had a very good morning, breezing a half-mile in company with Overanalyze and getting the distance in :47 1/5, the second-fastest time of the morning at that distance. I haven't formed a very strong opinion of him yet -- wheeling back off of two weeks rest to run in the Blue Grass is not a typical Todd Pletcher training technique -- but he should definitely appreciate the return to dirt in the Derby, and today's workout was a major step in the right direction.
8. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Turned in his final pre-Derby workout on Thursday, traversing six furlongs in a moderate 1:16 1/5. Overall, it was a solid work, with a final three furlongs in about :36 flat, but let's not forget that O'Neill's Derby winner I'll Have Another clocked the distance in 1:13 4/5 in his final pre-Derby work last year.
9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
As mentioned above, he breezed a half-mile in company with Palace Malice this morning, clocking the distance in a bullet :47 flat. While certainly an impressive work on the surface, it becomes even more impressive when one considers that it was -- in my opinion -- his best work of the year by a large margin. This is a colt that breezed five furlongs in 1:01.30 prior to winning the Arkansas Derby. Granted, you can make a case that the work was too sharp, by I see it as a very encouraging sign.
10. Vyjack (Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky) Trained by Rudy Rodriguez
Breezed five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 2/5 on Friday at Churchill, but according to DRF.com, he was under quite a bit of pressure throughout and wasn't particularly impressive. I am still intrigued by his chances heading into the Derby, but the combination of his pedigree, so-so workout, and breathing incident in the Wood Memorial leave me slightly less enthusiastic than I was immediately after the Wood Memorial.
11. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Turned in another solid one-mile workout last Sunday at Churchill, going the distance in 1:41 3/5. He is expected to turn in one more workout within the next couple of days, although given the disdain he displayed for mud in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), I would hope that his final workout comes on a day when the track is fast.
12. Mylute (Midnight Lute - Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations) Trained by Tom Amoss
Coming off of a sharp :47 4/5 half-mile breeze on April 21st, it wasn't at all surprising to see Mylute turn in a much more moderate :50 3/5 work this morning. He's still got plenty of questions to answer, the main one regarding his ability to handle ten furlongs, but if he gets a quick enough pace in front of him, he should come running.
-Keelerman
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