Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 4-13-13

1. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Although many are knocking his Wood Memorial effort as a sub-par performance -- by his own lofty standards, that is -- there were really a number of positive aspects to his effort that signal further improvement in Louisville. For one thing, he was content to settle off the lead for the first time in his career -- a major step forward. Secondly, while the pace was slow, he absolutely flew home, running his third quarter in :24.12 and his fourth in :23.98. If he does that in the Derby, he could end the race on the far turn.

2. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Taking a look once again at the chart of his Louisiana Derby winner, I still can't get past the move he made going round the far turn. He simply inhaled the majority of the field while sweeping past horses on the far outside. Then, after being caught by Mylute at the eighth pole, he somehow managed to find another gear to win by a neck -- with a final eighth in a strong :12.52! That he was able to make such a spectacular run around the turn and still finish up that fast is amazing.

3. Orb (Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Trained by Shug McGaughey

I really liked the way that he sat closer to the pace in the Florida Derby, proving that he's not just a one-dimensional closer. Of mild concern was the :13.08 second final eighth, but given that Orb seemed to be striding out powerfully at the finish, I'm not too worried about the slow fraction. Remember, he did the same thing in his allowance victory three starts back.

4. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Only needs a top four finish in the Arkansas Derby to seal his berth in the Derby, but quite frankly, I would be disappointed with anything less than a 1-2 effort. This colt just keeps surprising me with every race, showing new dimensions, quicker acceleration, stronger finishes, and more determination. He'll have to overcome starting from post position ten, but I think he's sitting on another big move forward.

5. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert

This is one of those colts that is either going to romp in the Arkansas Derby -- like Bodemeister did last year -- or disappoint and never really contend. As you might guess by my ranking, I am of the opinion that he will run huge. I really liked the move that he made entering the stretch in his allowance victory, reeling in the good colt Manando with powerful strides to win in decisive fashion. However, he has no Derby points to his credit, so a 1-2 finish is going to be very important.

6. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown

Closed well into the slow Wood Memorial pace to finish second, beaten three-quarters of a length, but he never appeared to be in a position to win the race. Even if the race had been another furlong longer, I think Verrazano would have found another gear and held him off. Nevertheless, it was a huge step in the right direction for Normandy Invasion, who only needs three weeks of good training to stamp himself as one of the major contenders in Louisville.

7. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.

He pretty much ran the race that I thought he would in the Florida Derby, tracking the pace in fourth before accelerating around the turn to take command. I was just surprised to see him put up so little fight against Orb, while outfinishing stretch-out sprinter Merit Man by just 2 1/4 lengths. Obviously, he wasn't fully cranked for the race -- not with five weeks left until the Kentucky Derby -- but then again, I doubt Orb was either. I still believe that Itsmyluckyday can be a contender in the Derby, but he may need to build up his stamina between now and then.

8. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill

Turned in the performance of his life in the Santa Anita Derby, tracking the pace in second before taking command of the lead. Then, when Flashback moved up to challenge, he found another gear, and the two colts powered away from the rest of the field in a visually eye-catching performance. Maybe he didn't have the quickest of final fractions, but this was a huge step forward for Goldencents, and after seeing what Doug O'Neill did with I'll Have Another last year, one has to consider Goldencents one of the top contenders for the Derby.

9. Vyjack (Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky) Trained by Rudy Rodriguez

Reportedly came out of his third-place finish in the Wood Memorial with some mucus in his airways, which makes his one-length defeat all the more impressive. There are some legitimate questions about his ability to stay ten furlongs, and he is currently without a rider, but this colt could be a real dark horse heading into the Derby if people disregard him off of his Wood Memorial defeat.

10. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

The announcement that Will Take Charge will train up to the Derby -- rather than run in the Blue Grass Stakes -- isn't really surprising, given that Lukas mentioned the possibility shortly after the colt won the Rebel Stakes. A seven-week layoff probably isn't completely ideal, but it's certainly better than leaving your race at Keeneland over the always-tricky Polytrack.

11. Den's Legacy (Medaglia d'Oro - Sunshine Song, by War Chant) Trained by Bob Baffert

He'll get a chance to make a major break-through in the Arkansas Derby, where he can stamp his ticket to the Derby with a top-three finish. Given the consistency he has showed throughout his career, and the way he ran when trapped on a dull rail in the Rebel Stakes, he may just be good enough to come away with the victory.

12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Runs back in the Blue Grass Stakes off of just two weeks rest, thanks to a disastrous trip in the Louisiana Derby that resulted in a seventh-place finish -- without ever getting a real chance to run. This is a colt that deserves to be in the Derby, as he really has flashed a great deal of talent despite tough trips, but the fact that his Derby fate will be decided over the Keeneland Polytrack -- over which he has no experience -- will make his task of making the Derby field extremely difficult.

13. Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) Trained by Kelly Breen

Turned in his first workout at Churchill Downs this morning, going five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 3/5. the third-fastest of the morning at that distance. He comes into the Derby as a bit of an unknown on dirt, with his primary success having come on Polytrack and turf, but a few more works like that should have him ready to run the race of his life on the first Saturday in May.

14. Govenor Charlie (Midnight Lute - Silverbulletway, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert

He's had a couple of easy half-mile breezes since his Sunland Derby win, the most recent being timed in :48 1/5 seconds. I still don't really know what to make of him, what with just three starts under his belt, but we'll get a little clearer idea of how good he is when Footbridge -- whom Govenor Charlie beat in a Santa Anita maiden race -- runs in the Blue Grass Stakes this afternoon.

15. Java's War (War Pass - Java, by Rainbow Quest) Trained by Kenny McPeek'

He gets his chance to make the Derby field when he faces thirteen rivals in a wide-open edition of the Blue Grass Stakes. While I am of the opinion that Java's War will eventually prove best on synthetic and turf tracks -- thus, fitting perfectly in a race like the Blue Grass -- the way he ran against Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby leaves me hopeful that handling the dirt at Churchill will be within his capabilities.

16. Rydilluc (Medaglia d'Oro - Swift and Classy, by Clever Trick) Trained by Gary Contessa

Rydilluc is another Blue Grass contender that strikes me as being better suited to turf and synthetic tracks, thus looming as a legitimate contender to take home a major Derby prep and head to Louisville without proven form on dirt. There's no denying that he is simply brilliant on turf -- his Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) victory was spectacular, as was his allowance win two starts back -- but he was beaten 22 1/4 lengths in his lone start on dirt. Can he win the Blue Grass? Absolutely. Can he win the Derby? Hard to say. If he gets that far, we'll have to wait and see how he trains at Churchill before casting any opinions one way or the other.

17. Uncaptured (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) Trained by Mark Casse

He ran a huge race finishing second in the Spiral Stakes, especially when one considers that it was his first start since November. Now he's got to try and take one more step forward and finish fourth or better in the Blue Grass Stakes. He's 2-for-2 over the dirt at Churchill, so we know he likes the track. Now, he just needs to earn a few more points to assure himself a spot in the Derby field.

18. Mylute (Midnight Lute - Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations) Trained by Tom Amoss

Gave Revolutionary a terrific fight in the Louisiana Derby, briefly claiming the lead inside the eighth pole before losing by just a neck. It was a grand performance, but Amoss expressed concerns -- both before and after the Louisiana Derby -- about his colt's ability to handle the nine-furlong distance. Clearly, Mylute handled it just fine -- but can he handle the additional furlong he will face in Louisville?

19. Lines of Battle (War Front - Black Speck, by Arch) Trained by Aidan O'Brien

This year's version of Master of Hounds and Daddy Long Legs will try and parlay victory in the UAE Derby into success at Churchill, something his stablemates before him were unable to accomplish. I certainly wouldn't count him out, given that he has a strong dirt pedigree, but it's a long trip from Dubai to the United States, and you have to wonder if it will affect his performance.

20. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Remsen winner will look to rebound from a poor effort in the Gotham when he takes on Oxbow, War Academy, and Den's Legacy in the Arkansas Derby. He's going to need a 1-2 finish to secure a berth in the Derby, which won't be easy, but it's worth remembering that Pletcher's lone Derby winner -- Super Saver -- used this race as a springboard to Churchill.

-Keelerman

Arkansas Derby entries: Oxbow draws post 10

Oxbow, runner-up in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and romping winner of the LeComte Stakes (gr. III), has drawn post position ten in the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Oaklawn Park.

The nine-furlong Kentucky Derby prep race has had a great deal of success in recent years, producing such stars as 2004 Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner Smarty Jones, 2005 Preakness/Belmont winner Afleet Alex, 2007 Eclipse champion older male Lawyer Ron, two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, 2011 Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro, and 2012 Kentucky Derby/Preakness runner-up Bodemeister. With such an unprecedented success rate, it is entirely possible that the 2013 renewal of the race could produce yet another budding superstar.

Oxbow may just be that horse. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the son of Awesome Again has not been able to overcome poor trips in his recent starts, but possesses a great deal of speed and strong acceleration. Gary Stevens, who won the Kentucky Derby with Lukas in 1988 and 1995, has the mount.

Trainer Bob Baffert, who won the Arkansas Derby last year with Bodemeister, has entered two colts, led by the lightly-raced War Academy. The son of Giant's Causeway has only run three times, but was simply spectacular in winning an 8.5-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita Park last month. A repeat of that performance could make him very tough to beat on Saturday.

The other Baffert representative is Den's Legacy, who has finished second or third in four major stakes since winning the Generous Stakes (gr. III) on turf last year. A true veteran with eleven starts under his belt, Den's Legacy enters the Arkansas Derby off of a good third-place effort in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II).

Trainer Todd Pletcher, who already has Wood Memorial winner Verrazano and Louisiana Derby winner Revolutionary assured of spots in the Kentucky Derby, will try to add a third colt to his Louisville roster by sending out Overanalyze. Winner of the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) and Futurity Stakes (gr. II) as a two-year-old, Overanalyze finished a dull fifth last month in the Gotham Stakes (gr. II) -- his only start of the year thus far -- but has trained nicely since then and could be sitting on a big performance.

Rounding out the field are Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) winner Falling Sky, Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Frac Daddy, Rebel Stakes fourth- and sixth-place finishers Texas Bling and Carve, Team Valor Rushaway Stakes runner-up Divine Ambition, and Southwest Stakes (gr. III) third-place finisher Heaven's Runway.

Post Positions:
1 Carve
2 War Academy
3 Divine Ambition
4 Falling Sky
5 Den's Legacy
6 Heaven's Runway
7 Texas Bling
8 Frac Daddy
9 Overanalyze
10 Oxbow

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 3-29-13

1. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.

Completed his preparation for the Florida Derby by traversing a half-mile in :49 2/5 at Calder on March 23rd. He drew well for tomorrow's big test, being assigned gate three, so at least we won't have to worry about him getting hung wide on the first turn. The only real concern is that he has Shanghai Bobby drawn to his inside and Merit Man drawn to his outside, meaning that he could potentially get caught in the middle of a skirmish for the lead. Then again, perhaps he'll rate behind them in third place and make his move later. Whatever he does, he needs to finish in the top two to guarantee himself enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field.

2. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Unlike the majority of Pletcher's potential Derby colts, Verrazano has already secured his berth in the Derby by merit of his Tampa Bay Derby win. As a result, his exact finish in the Wood Memorial is not important -- although to be frank, anything less than a victory would be disappointing. Hopefully, we'll get an opportunity to see him rate off the lead, but given his natural speed, he may simply find himself in front by default.

3. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

He will pick up the services of Gary Stevens for the Arkansas Derby, which I thought was an interesting decision. Would it not be a simply spectacular story if Stevens and Lukas were to win the Derby together on the twenty-fifth anniversary of their triumph with Winning Colors? Given the circumstances, that would be practically unprecedented.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher

A lot has been written about how unfortunate it is that juvenile champion has yet to earn his way into the Derby, and while that may be so, it's not as though achieving that goal is going to be difficult. All he has to do is finish in the Florida Derby trifecta, and given his credentials, that shouldn't pose any problem. I look forward to seeing how he handles the additional sixteenth of a mile.

5. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Drawing post position three in the Louisiana Derby probably wasn't the luckiest thing, given Revolutionary's tendency to break slowly, but as I wrote last week, the long homestretch should help him to overcome any traffic issues that he may encounter. But once again, he needs a good effort to secure a trip to the Derby, as he currently possesses just ten Kentucky Derby qualification points.

6. Orb (Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Trained by Shug McGaughey

What's interesting about his run in the Fountain of Youth was that -- despite coming from off-the-pace -- he was actually running some very stiff internal fractions, including a sub-1:10 six furlongs. If he were to do that again, it would likely put him on the lead in the Florida Derby, which would be unprecedented. Therefore, it is more likely that he settles back once again behind a moderate pace, which should leave him with an even stronger kick for the homestretch.

7. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert

He has been confirmed as an Arkansas Derby starter, where he will be ridden by Mike Smith. Hmm . . . where have I heard that before? A Baffert colt in Arkansas with Smith as the rider? Sounds like Bodemeister, doesn't it? Yes, it does. And I truly think that War Academy can one-up Bodemeister by not only winning the Arkansas Derby, but the Kentucky Derby as well. I'm expecting a bright future for this colt.

8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Well, it's now or never. Either he finishes in the Louisiana Derby exacta and secures his berth in the Derby, or he doesn't. On paper, he appears to be the lone speed, so perhaps he can take them all the way on the front end. But I suspect (okay, I know) that I have become attached to this colt in much the same way that I did Dublin in 2010, and my opinion of him is probably biased. :)

9. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert

The presence of his stablemate Super Ninety Nine in the Santa Anita Derby may be very clever strategy on Baffert's part, as the speedy Super Ninety Nine will likely go to the lead, allowing Flashback to try and settle back with a target to run at. If this learning experience were to go as planned, it would help Flashback's chances immensely in the Derby, where the ability to rate off the leaders is extremely valuable.

10. Hear the Ghost (Ghostzapper - Rehear, by Coronado's Quest) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer

There's nothing to dislike about the way he's training for the Santa Anita Derby, as his 1:13.60 six-furlong breeze at Hollywood last week was very strong. He's already secured enough points to make the Derby, so a top-two effort next week is not imperative. I'd just like to see him settle back off of what will hopefully be a moderate pace, then finish up well to crack the trifecta.

11. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert

He returns to Fair Grounds this Saturday to contest the Louisiana Derby, where his grinding style should help him take advantage of the long homestretch. Any improvement upon his runner-up effort in the Risen Star should enable him to finish in the top three, which would assure him a berth in the Derby.

12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Like Code West, he is returning to Fair Grounds for a shot at the Louisiana Derby, but unlike Code West, a third-place finish will not secure him enough Derby points -- he will need to finish second or better. That's certainly a distinct possibility, but unless Pletcher runs 1-2 with Revolutionary and Palace Malice, it is likely that one of these highly-regarded Pletcher colts will end up without enough points to make the Derby.

13. Vyjack (Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky) Trained by Rudy Rodriguez

Breezed five furlongs in a bullet :59.07 at Aqueduct on March 22nd, signaling his readiness for next week's Wood Memorial. Unfortunately, with Rudy Rodriguez dealing with a possible extension of his current suspension, the possibility exists that someone else will be the trainer of record for that race. Regardless, Rodriguez should be back in action before the Kentucky Derby.

14. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Using the Blue Grass Stakes as a final prep is an interesting choice, but since this colt doesn't need any additional Derby points, there really isn't a reason to stay in Arkansas and run against Oxbow again. Those who question whether he'll handle the Polytrack at Keeneland have a valid point, but remember, he did break his maiden there last fall.

15. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown

Like many others, he's got a difficult task to conquer heading into his final Derby prep, that is, securing enough points to make the Derby. That fifth-place finish in the Risen Star really hurt, as it left him with just four points on his record and just one more race in which to earn more. Fortunately, he seems to be training well, having turned in a pair of bullet five-furlong works at Palm Meadows during the last two weeks.

16. Departing (War Front - Leave, by Pulpit) Trained by Albert Stall, Jr.

Completed his training for the Louisiana Derby by breezing a half-mile in :47.20 at Fair Grounds, the fastest of sixty-five such morning works. He's drawn very well in gate seven, right alongside his stablemate Sunbean. I anticipate a great performance -- but whether that performance is great enough to top Revolutionary, Titletown Five, Code West, and Palace Malice remains to be seen.

17. Den's Legacy (Medaglia d'Oro - Sunshine Song, by War Chant) Trained by Bob Baffert

He will be making a return trip to Arkansas to compete in the Arkansas Derby, where he will most likely be overshadowed by stablemate War Academy. Nevertheless, it would be unwise to count this colt out of contention, because he has quietly amassed twenty Derby qualification points, and a top three finish in Arkansas will likely stamp his ticket to Louisville.

18. Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) Trained by Kelly Breen

The three new additions to this week's top twenty, starting with this colt, are rounding out the bottom three positions simply because I'm not quite sure what to do with them. Like many a Spiral winner, Black Onyx emerged from seemingly nowhere to defeat a fairly strong field with a number of well-regarded entrants. The question is, can he transfer his form to dirt? Well, he did break his maiden over it last November at Aqueduct. Regardless, he's already arrived in Louisville to begin training for the Derby, so he'll have every opportunity to familiarize himself with the Churchill main track.

19. Govenor Charlie (Midnight Lute - Silverbulletway, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert

As blazingly fast as the track was on Sunland Derby day, it was still a remarkable for Govenor Charlie to win as he did, breaking a 52-year-old track record by nearly three-fifths of a second. The ease at which he disposed of Abraham rounding the final turn was also remarkable. With only three starts under his belt -- and none as a two-year-old -- he'll have to buck history to win the Derby, but then again, maybe he has the talent to do just that.

20. Uncaptured (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) Trained by Mark Casse

You couldn't really have asked for a finer effort in the Spiral, given that it was his first start since November. He flashed enough speed to stay within reach of the lead throughout the first six furlongs and finished up well in the final furlong. True, that final furlong was run in a slow :13.62, but I think it was more the result of a slow track than horses tiring, because watching the race, no one seemed to be that exhausted.

-Keelerman

War Academy romps to allowance victory

The well-regarded colt War Academy rebounded from a fourth-place finish in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) to win a 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita Park by 3 1/2 lengths.

Ridden to victory by Mike Smith, the Bob Baffert-trained son of Giant's Causeway showed decent tactical speed during the early stages of the race, settling in second place behind pace-setting stablemate Manando as that one led through slow fractions of :24.41 and :48.64 seconds. Moving round the turn, Manando attempted -- with some success -- to shake off War Academy's pursuit, opening up a five-length lead following three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.89 seconds.

However, War Academy had a few extra gears to use, and re-closed the gap with ease in the homestretch. Coming past the sixteenth pole, War Academy stormed past Manando, eventually hitting the wire 3 1/2 lengths in front while stopping the clock in 1:43.42 seconds.

Owned by Michael Tabor, John Magnier, and Derrick Smith, War Academy is expected to contest a major Kentucky Derby prep race in the near future, with the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) on April 6th being a prime possibility.

-Keelerman

Shakin It Up very game in San Vicente victory

Shakin It Up showed a great deal of courage in the $150,000 San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park, splitting horses at the eighth pole and rallying clear to win the seven-furlong sprint by one length.

Making his first start since a third-place finish in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. II) last November, Shakin It Up settled back into fifth place during the early stages of the race, about three lengths behind the front-running trio of Belvin, Caballo Del Cielo, and Mudflats. War Academy was directly to Shakin It Up's outside in fourth place, while Treasury Bill was the trailer.

Through fractions of :22.88 and :45.62 Belvin continued to lead the way, but Caballo Del Cielo moved up to claim the advantage entering the homestretch and was in front by a half-length passing the eighth pole. But to his inside, Shakin It Up had found an opening, and the favorite surged through under jockey David Cohen to take command. Treasury Bill closed in late to secure second, but didn't have enough time to reel in the winner, who reached the wire in the excellent time of 1:22.48 seconds.

Caballo Del Cielo held third, three-quarters of a length behind Treasury Bill and a similar margin ahead of War Academy. The latter colt briefly lacked racing room approaching the eighth pole, but failed to mount a serious challenge once clear. Mudflats and Belvin completed the order of finish, with the latter beaten just 2 3/4 lengths.

The winner is trained by Bob Baffert and owned by Mike Pegram and Dennis Cardoza. A son of Midnight Lute out of the Vindication mare Silver Bullet Moon, Shakin It Up has now compiled a record of 2-1-1 from 4 starts, with earnings of $139,600.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-17-13

As promised, here is part two of this week's Triple Crown Countdown, covering the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita and a couple of other noteworthy races at Santa Anita and Oaklawn.

Let's begin!

San Vicente Stakes (gr. II)

Seven furlongs at Santa Anita Park

Although this race does not offer any Kentucky Derby qualification points, it is nevertheless a starting point for a number of potential Derby candidates, including three -- Belvin, Shakin It Up, and War Academy -- from the barn of Bob Baffert.

Not surprisingly, Baffert's trio are the three morning line favorites, with Shakin It Up leading the way at 5-2. A son of Midnight Lute, the colt has not run since finishing a troubled third in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) at Betfair Hollywood Park last November. Note that he was beaten just a neck by Super Ninety Nine on that occasion; Super Ninety Nine being the favorite for the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) tomorrow afternoon. He's been training nicely for his return, having turned in a couple of sharp five-furlong works this month, and he appears to be the horse to beat.

Belvin flashed potential when second in his November debut to subsequent stakes winner Distinctiv Passion, and came right back one month later to romp in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden here at Santa Anita. Like Shakin It Up, he's been training very well, and will have leading rider Rafael Bejarano in the saddle. The interesting part is that he has shown so much talent sprinting, despite the fact that he is a son of Empire Maker out of a Storm Bird mare. With a pedigree like that, he should have no trouble stretching out further down the road.

War Academy has a similar profile, being by Giant's Causeway out of an A.P. Indy mare. There's little doubt that route races are in his future, but he still showed enough talent to break his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs at Hollywood Park last November. He got sick shortly thereafter and didn't return to the work tab until late December, but he's trained well since then and should be in the mix today. I don't really expect him to win a race like this, as seven furlongs looks to be way short of his best distance, but a decent effort should set him up well for a two-turn graded stakes in the near future.

Moving past the Baffert trio, we find Caballo Del Cielo and Treasury Bill. Both colts are coming off of hugely impressive debut victories garnered through drastically different running styles. Caballo Del Cielo, who is trained by Steve Asmussen, broke his maiden sprinting 5-1/2 furlongs last month in gate-to-wire fashion. He ran the opening quarter mile that day in a blazing :21.86 seconds, which makes it clear that he could wind up the early leader in today's race. We know he's got class -- he was beaten just 3 1/4 lengths as a maiden in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) last fall -- but he was beaten 4 1/2 lengths by Shakin It Up two starts back, and it's hard to say if he's improved enough to turn the tables.

In contrast, Treasury Bill will be making his first start against winners after rallying from out of the clouds to break his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita on January 27th. Like Belvin and War Academy, seven furlongs is undoubtedly too short for him -- he's got a regal pedigree that screams Kentucky Derby -- but don't be surprised to see him finishing strongly late. My lone concern is that his maiden winner came over a wet, sealed track; a track that seemed to be playing in favor of closers. It's possible that his late kick could be somewhat compromised by today's fast track.

Rounding out the field is Mudflats, who looked good breaking his maiden by 3 1/4 lengths two starts back at Aqueduct over a sloppy sealed track. Purchased privately thereafter and transferred to the care of Doug O'Neill, Mudflats disappointing greatly in his only start since, finishing seventh in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) on January 5th. He's got the speed to be in contention from the start, but it looks as though he'll have to step up a few notches to beat this field.

Selections: Shakin It Up, Belvin, War Academy

Other Races of Note

At Oaklawn Park . . .

Race 7: Bob Baffert's Title Contender, who finished last in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and CashCall Futurity (gr. I) after breaking his maiden sharply in September, has shipped out for this 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race and should win without trouble if at his best. Midas Dancer ran second to Gulfport and Fear the Kitten in a pair of allowance races at Churchill last fall, and has never finished worse than third in six starts. He looms the most likely winner if Title Contender fails to bring his best race. Hornet finished next-to-last in a strong renewal of the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes last December, then returned to finish third behind Southwest Stakes (gr. III) entrant Channel Isle in an allowance race here at Oaklawn. Another good effort today would bode well for Channel Isle's chances tomorrow. Red Wings, from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, lost his first six starts before claiming a narrow victory last time out. He's got a determined running style, but may not be quite as good as the favorites in this spot.

At Santa Anita . . .

Race 3: This is the first division of a one-mile maiden special weight that drew enough entries to be run as two races. The favorite is Wine List, who has finished second in a pair of one-mile maiden races on the turf. However, the colt I have my eye on is Misdeed, who finished second by nearly eight lengths to the promising Tiz the Truth in a race similar to this one two weeks ago. A victory by Misdeed today would, of course, further stamp Tiz the Truth as a colt of high quality. Aleander, a troubled seventh in his debut for Baffert on December 26th; and Handsome Dennis, third in his debut sprinting three weeks ago, are other prominent contenders.

Race 5: The second division of this maiden race has drawn arguably the stronger field, for it includes names like Footbridge and Syndicated (2nd and 3rd to Curly Top in a recent one-mile MSW), Pure Loyalty (2nd to Treasury Bill in that one's maiden victory), Govenor Charlie (2nd to Let Em Shine in a 6f MSW; finished ahead of subsequent winner Salutos Amigos), Major Affair (4th to the Demonic and Tiz the Truth in a 7f MSW), and Colburn (4th to Tiz the Truth in that one's maiden victory.) Don't be surprised if the winner of this race goes on to contest a major Derby prep race in the near future!

-Keelerman

San Vicente Stakes: Bob Baffert enters three

Trainer Bob Baffert will have an excellent chance at winning Sunday's  $150,000 San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita, as he trains three of the six entrants.

His runners are Belvin, Shakin It Up, and War Academy. All three showed promise as two-year-olds, with Belvin breaking his maiden second time out; Shakin It Up finishing a close third in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III); and War Academy romping to victory in the lone start of his career. All three have been training sharply for their returns, and it wouldn't be out of the question for them to sweep the trifecta.

Their main opposition is expected to come from Cabello Del Cielo, who was brilliant in breaking his maiden here at Santa Anita last month; and Treasury Bill, who turned in an eye-catching rally to break his maiden on January 27th. Mudflats, who broke his maiden sharply two starts back before finishing seventh in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II), completes the lineup.

Post Positions:
1 Belvin
2 Shakin It Up
3 War Academy
4 Cabello Del Cielo
5 Mudflats
6 Treasury Bill

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 2-13-13

1. Tiz the Truth (Tiznow - Truly Blessed, by French Deputy) Trained by Bob Baffert

The dam side of Tiz the Truth's pedigree is rather interesting to examine. His broodmare sire is French Deputy, winner of the 1995 Jerome Stakes (gr. II) and a highly successful sire in Japan, his top progeny including 2001 Japan Cup Dirt (Jpn-I) winner Kurofune and 2002 Whitney Invitational (gr. I) winner Left Bank. As for his tail-female family, you can argue that it is a bit weak -- going back three generations, it has produced just one black-type winner, that being Tiz the Truth's half-brother Notional. On the other hand, his third dam is Lady Tramp, winner of the 1967 Alcibiades Stakes and a full-sister to the multiple stakes winner Popular Demand.

2. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Surprise! I'll bet you didn't expect to see him up this high! There are a couple of reasons for his sudden rise in my rankings. First off, I was very encouraged by his sharp workout on February 9th, which signals that he should be ready to make his long-anticipated three-year-old debut sometime in mid-March. Secondly, please note that one of the few horses to have beaten Titletown Five -- Park City -- recently returned from a long layoff to win an allowance race at Gulfstream Park.

3. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown

Turned in a bullet workout on February 10th, breezing five-eighths in company with Brown's promising maiden winner Integrity and getting the distance in 1:01.44. From a pedigree perspective, ten furlongs may be a bit far for him, but I still can't get over how impressive his far-turn rally was in the Remsen Stakes last fall. If he can replicate that this year, he should be a contender in Louisville.

4. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.

There has been some talk that Itsmyluckyday's pedigree may not carry him a mile and a quarter. Perhaps it isn't the strongest classic pedigree I've ever seen, but the impression that Itsmyluckyday gave me in both the Gulfstream Park Derby and the Holy Bull leaves me with little doubt that he can be successful at ten furlongs. His great tactical speed, coupled with a powerful finishing kick, should make him a force in all the major races to come.

5. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher

His next start is scheduled to come in the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) on March 9th. I find it interesting to note that Todd Pletcher's lone Derby winner, Super Saver, also used the Tampa Bay Derby as a springboard to Louisville.

6. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher

With the plans being not to race him until the Florida Derby (gr. I) at the end of March, it's not surprising that he hasn't turned in a timed workout since the Holy Bull. The two-month gap between prep races is a bit unorthodox, but then again, it's the same pattern that worked for I'll Have Another last year.

7. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher

He has been shipped from New York to Florida to continue his training, which means that he is now considered to be one of Pletcher's first-string runners. A number of options are being contemplated for his next start, including the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Wood Memorial, but nothing definite has been decided.

8. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert

He's already back on the work tab, having breezed a half-mile in :47.80 on February 12th at Santa Anita. In the San Felipe, I would like to see him really get pressured by Goldencents through a fairly quick pace. And so long as that happens, I don't care if he wins or loses the race -- so long as he is right there at the finish. Kind of like Bodemeister in the 2012 San Felipe Stakes.

9. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher

On February 10th, he turned in his penultimate work for the Fountain of Youth, traversing five furlongs in 1:01.01 in company with Palace Malice. It was definitely a major step in the right direction, and a considerably sharper move than his work from one week earlier, so it appears that Violence is going to be ready to roll on February 23rd.

10. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Still no word on where this colt will race next. Pletcher already has horses pointing toward the Risen Star, Fountain of Youth, Gotham, Tampa Bay Derby, and Rebel Stakes -- which is pretty much every Derby prep race there is between now and the Spiral Stakes. So with that in mind, it seems likely that Capo Bastone is going to have to run against one on his stablemates -- perhaps in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) against Violence.

11. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert

Turned in another really nice workout on February 12th, traversing a half-mile in :47.80 at Santa Anita. It has been confirmed that his next start will come in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) on Sunday, so we'll soon be able to get a better feel for what kind of a colt he is.

12. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Went five furlongs in a nice 1:01.93 at Palm Meadows on February 10th, another nice step toward a start in the Gotham. Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing which Overanalyze shows up in the Gotham -- will we see the one that ground his way to victory in the Remsen, or the one that showcased an eye-catching turn-of-foot to win the Futurity?

13. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Cruised five furlongs in a moderate 1:02.60 this morning, but don't let the slow time fool you -- the track seemed a bit heavy this morning, and his work was actually the second-fastest of the morning at that distance, missing the bullet by just a fifth of a second.

14. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert

Breezed a half-mile in :48.00 at Santa Anita on February 12th, after which it was announced that he will make his next start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds. The more I think about this colt the more I start to like him, which explains why he is ranked 14th this week after sitting 21st last week.

15. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark Casse

His career thus far has been eerily similar to that of his stablemate Prospective. Both Dynamic Sky and Prospective began their careers at Woodbine; both finished off-the-board in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Both began their three-year-old season with a victory in the Pasco; both then ran second in the Sam. F Davis Stakes. Hopefully, Dynamic Sky's Derby dreams will end better than Prospective's, for the latter colt clipped heels at the start of the Derby and wound up eighteenth.

16. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Breezed five furlongs in 1:01.01 on February 10th in preparation for a start in the Risen Star Stakes, where he will be ridden for the first time by Rosie Napravnik. As it will be his two-turn debut, I'd just like to see him finish up strongly to secure a spot in the superfecta.

17. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin

No word yet on where this colt will run next, but he hasn't breezed since his maiden victory on January 26th, so it's probably safe to assume that he won't seem him again until March.

18. Cerro (Mr. Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion

Although his biggest success has come on dirt, Cerro actually has a strong turf pedigree, being a full brother to the stakes-placed two-time turf winner Sacham Spirit. And don't forget that his sire, Mr. Greeley, has produced a number of successful turf runners, including Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (gr. I) winner Aruna. So it should come as no surprise if Cerro takes to the turf strongly in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) next month.

19. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill

Turned in yet another bullet workout this morning, cruising six furlongs in 1:13.40 at Santa Anita. O'Neill seems to be training him the same way he trained I'll Have Another last year, with numerous long, quick breezes. Will it result in another Derby success? Time will tell.

20. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen

His next start is scheduled to come in the Risen Star Stakes, where he will face a very deep and very talented field of runners. But here's the interesting part -- jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rode Proud Strike to his maiden victory, but has chosen to ride recent Fair Grounds allowance winner Departing in the Risen Star. As a result, Proud Strike will be ridden by a new jockey in the Risen Star. That new jockey -- wouldn't you know it! -- is Gary Stevens.

21. Fortify (Distorted Humor - Kotuku, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mahmoud Al Zarooni.

He's drawn gate four in the UAE 2,000 Guineas (UAE-III), where he will face -- among others -- the unbeaten group I winner Soft Falling Rain and group III winner Glass Office. Please note that Fortify is no longer trained by Kiaran McLaughlin -- he is now trained by Mamoud Al Zarooni.

*****

With a number of major Derby preps coming up over the next several days, we can expect a number of major changes to my next top twenty. Regardless of what happens, you can probably expect to see Dewey Square and Uncaptured back on the list, as both have turned in recent workouts and seem to be back on the right track.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 2-8-13

1. Tiz the Truth (Tiznow - Truly Blessed, by Deputy Minister) Trained by Bob Baffert
Are you surprised? You had better be -- I myself couldn't believe it when I decided to put this colt at the top of my list. But his maiden victory on Saturday was other-worldly. Yes, the pace he set was definitely on the slow side, and it's not like there was a world-class field behind him. But what I just can't get over is that he closed his final two furlongs in :11.61 and :11.87 seconds. That is just mind-boggling. The last maiden I can remember doing something similar was Bodemeister. Furthermore, Tiz the Truth's final time of 1:36.28 was quicker than the one-mile fractions of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (1:36.53) and the Strub Stakes (1:36.47) later in the day. Oh yeah, and as an added bonus, Gary Stevens is his rider. Imagine the excitement that would ensue should Gary make it to the Derby!

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He's up to five furlongs in his training, having breezed that distance in 1:01.23 seconds on February 3rd. Displacing him from the top spot has nothing to do with a change of opinion or heart -- I just really liked Tiz the Truth's effort and wanted to put him at #1.

3. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
He is to have just one more prep race before the Kentucky Derby, that coming in the Florida Derby (gr. I) on March 30th. However, it's interesting to note that he has only earned 10 Kentucky Derby qualification points -- and with that in mind, he's going to have to be sharp for the Florida Derby, because he can't afford a poor finish.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like his Holy Bull conqueror Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby will use the Florida Derby as his only other stop on the road to Louisville. But unlike Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby is positioned a bit better in terms of qualification points, having already earned 24. A third-place finish should secure him a spot in the Derby, and even a fourth-place finish would probably suffice. Truth be told, the chances of him performing that badly are remote, but after what happened to Union Rags and El Padrino last year -- who knows?

5. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Forget the low Beyer speed figure. Forget the fact that he won by just a neck. Revolutionary's performance in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) last Saturday was among the most spectacular I have ever seen from a three-year-old colt. After breaking slowly and winding up dead-last rounding the final turn, Revolutionary weaved his way between horses in the homestretch, saw an opening between horses with about a sixteenth of a mile to go, and surged through to win in dramatic fashion. He had every right to lose that race, but he didn't. The guts to turn certain defeat into victory by rallying through tiny holes could prove useful in a race like the Derby.

6. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Tiz the Truth, Flashback got a very easy trip in his Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) victory, but did finish up well to win by over six lengths. It was a very good performance, and he obviously had something left in the tank, but I didn't think it was quite as sharp as Tiz the Truth's maiden victory earlier on the card. Regardless, there's plenty of potential for Flashback, who is likely to use the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) in March as a prep for the Santa Anita Derby.

7. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Up until recently, I thought that Gunderman was a pretty decent horse. Then I watched him get beat nearly seventeen lengths by Verrazano. So . . . either Gunderman isn't the horse I thought he was, or this Verrazano colt is nothing short of amazing . . . I'll go with the latter. Words cannot describe how powerful Verrazano looked on Saturday, drawing off under virtually no urging to win a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park in 1:34.80. That was an unreal performance, and the scary part is that he clearly had something left in the tank.

8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Call me stubborn if you like, but I'm putting him back on my list. This morning, he breezed for the first time since breaking his maiden, going three furlongs in :37 1/5. I'll admit he's running out of time to join the Triple Crown trail, but if any trainer can get a horse like this to the Derby, it's Lukas.

9. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He still seems to be several works away from his first start, as his most recent breeze was five-eighths in 1:02.90, but I still think that his efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year were two deceptively good efforts. I'm looking forward to his return, whenever it may be.

10. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
With just a little more than two weeks remaining before his seasonal debut in the Fountain of Youth, I expect we'll be seeing a sharp workout from Violence this weekend. I'm still having a ton of trouble gauging just how good this colt is, so the Fountain of Youth should go a long way toward determining his future rankings.

11. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
Remember last week, when I noted in confusion that War Academy had breezed on turf? Well, he went back to dirt for his next work, traversing six furlongs in 1:12.60 from the gate on February 4th. He is nominated -- along with stablemates Belvin and Shakin It Up -- to the $150,000 San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) on February 17th, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is entered.

12. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like I've said in the past, I really don't know where to put this colt, and I won't until I see how he runs in the Gotham. There's no denying that his victory in the Remsen (gr. II) last fall was excellent. On the other hand, he seemed somewhat one-paced that day, and he's probably going to have to show a little better turn-of-foot to win a race like the Derby.

13. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Here's another colt that I'm not sure what to do with. His LeComte win was great. He seemed to have something left in the tank at the finish. But he set a slow pace -- can he go faster early and still finish strongly? This will be the key to his future success, and I hope to see him answer that question in the Risen Star.

14. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark Casse
I thought his performance in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) was good, but not quite what I was hoping for. True, he got hung wide around both turns, and he did finish up well in deep stretch. But I didn't like the way he was drifting in early stretch. Had he maintained a straight course, I am confident he could have won. Hopefully, he'll straighten out and keep his focus better in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) next month.

15. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It sounds as though he'll make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd, where we'll get a chance to see how he stacks up against Normandy Invasion and Oxbow. Breezed a half-mile in the good time of :48.19 seconds on February 3rd, so he should certainly be ready in time.

16. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
There are plenty of options available for this promising colt's next start, including the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) on March 2nd and the Wood Memorial (gr. I) on April 6th. Both races would seem to fit his schedule well, and he certainly has the foundation to jump into graded stakes company. After all, he's already got six starts under his belt -- that's two more than Verrazano and Flashback combined! :)

17. Cerro (Mr. Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion
He'll get another big test on March 3rd, when he contests the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park. From there, he'll head to the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway Park, where he will try and give Team Valor a three-peat following the victories of Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Went the Day Well in 2012.

18. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
It's beginning to look as though the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) on March 9th could be one of the best Derby preps of the year, at least from an anticipation standpoint. Both Goldencents and Flashback are pointing toward the race, with He's Had Enough, Tiz the Truth, Demonic, Tiz a Minister, and others possible as well. It should be a very stiff test for Goldencents, who will have to prove that he can handle the presence of other quality front-runners and still hold off the closers.

19. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen
Breezed five furlongs on February 4th in a very sharp 1:00.60 at Fair Grounds, signaling that a race like the Risen Star could be next on the agenda.

20. Fortify (Distorted Humor - Kotuku, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
After months of wondering why he wasn't on the work tab, it hit me a few days ago. A Godolphin-owned three-year-old . . . why, he's probably in Dubai! That turned out to be the case, as it was recently announced that Fortify will make his three-year-old debut in the UAE 2,000 Guineas on February 14th. Hard to say if he's being pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, but he certainly turned in some nice efforts last year, and if he finds success in Dubai -- who knows?

21. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert
A full-brother to 2009 Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) winner Charitable Man, this Bob Baffert-trainee recently returned from a three-month layoff to finish second in a one-mile allowance race at Santa Anita, behind fellow Baffert-trainee Super Ninety Nine. While Super Ninety Nine was more impressive on the day, I like the overall impression that Code West has given during his career, and his pedigree suggests that ten furlongs will be well within his range.

*****

As you may have noticed, Dewey Square has been removed from my top twenty. I had originally intended to leave him on, but with so many impressive efforts from up-and-comers last week, not much to say about this colt until he gets back on the work tab. To the best of my knowledge, no next-race plans have been announced, so we'll have to take a wait-and-see approach with this colt until further notice.

Also disappearing from this week's rankings are He's Had Enough, Frac Daddy, Will Take Charge, and Tiz a Minister. The first-mentioned colt has been dropped off of his disappointing third in the Robert B. Lewis, while the other two have been removed to make way for other up-and-coming runners.

Narrowly failing to make this week's list is Falling Sky, winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Give him a ton of credit -- he successfully stretched his speed around two turns and showed a lot of grit in holding off Dynamic Sky to win in good fashion. But while his pedigree suggests that ten furlongs could be within his range, he has given me the impression thus far that he may be at his best sprinting. We'll learn more about him in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) next month.

-Keelerman