The dam side of Tiz the Truth's pedigree is rather
interesting to examine. His broodmare sire is French Deputy, winner of the 1995
Jerome Stakes (gr. II) and a highly successful sire in Japan, his top progeny
including 2001 Japan Cup Dirt (Jpn-I) winner Kurofune and 2002 Whitney
Invitational (gr. I) winner Left Bank. As for his tail-female family, you can
argue that it is a bit weak -- going back three generations, it has produced
just one black-type winner, that being Tiz the Truth's half-brother Notional.
On the other hand, his third dam is Lady Tramp, winner of the 1967 Alcibiades
Stakes and a full-sister to the multiple stakes winner Popular Demand.
2. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by
D. Wayne Lukas
Surprise! I'll bet you didn't expect to see him up this
high! There are a couple of reasons for his sudden rise in my rankings. First
off, I was very encouraged by his sharp workout on February 9th,
which signals that he should be ready to make his long-anticipated
three-year-old debut sometime in mid-March. Secondly, please note that one of
the few horses to have beaten Titletown Five -- Park City -- recently returned
from a long layoff to win an allowance race at Gulfstream Park.
3. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad
Brown
Turned in a bullet workout on February 10th, breezing
five-eighths in company with Brown's promising maiden winner Integrity and
getting the distance in 1:01.44. From a pedigree perspective, ten furlongs may
be a bit far for him, but I still can't get over how impressive his far-turn
rally was in the Remsen Stakes last fall. If he can replicate that this year,
he should be a contender in Louisville.
4. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained
by Edward Plesa, Jr.
There has been some talk that Itsmyluckyday's pedigree
may not carry him a mile and a quarter. Perhaps it isn't the strongest classic
pedigree I've ever seen, but the impression that Itsmyluckyday gave me in both
the Gulfstream Park Derby and the Holy Bull leaves me with little doubt that he
can be successful at ten furlongs. His great tactical speed, coupled with a
powerful finishing kick, should make him a force in all the major races to
come.
5. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd
Pletcher
His next start is scheduled to come in the $350,000 Tampa
Bay Derby (gr. II) on March 9th. I find it interesting to note that Todd
Pletcher's lone Derby winner, Super Saver, also used the Tampa Bay Derby as a
springboard to Louisville.
6. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
With the plans being not to race him until the Florida
Derby (gr. I) at the end of March, it's not surprising that he hasn't turned in
a timed workout since the Holy Bull. The two-month gap between prep races is a
bit unorthodox, but then again, it's the same pattern that worked for I'll Have
Another last year.
7. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
He has been shipped from New York to Florida to continue
his training, which means that he is now considered to be one of Pletcher's
first-string runners. A number of options are being contemplated for his next
start, including the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Wood Memorial, but
nothing definite has been decided.
8. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's already back on the work tab, having breezed a
half-mile in :47.80 on February 12th at Santa Anita. In the San Felipe, I would
like to see him really get pressured by Goldencents through a fairly quick
pace. And so long as that happens, I don't care if he wins or loses the race --
so long as he is right there at the finish. Kind of like Bodemeister in the
2012 San Felipe Stakes.
9. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
On February 10th, he turned in his penultimate work for
the Fountain of Youth, traversing five furlongs in 1:01.01 in company with
Palace Malice. It was definitely a major step in the right direction, and a
considerably sharper move than his work from one week earlier, so it appears
that Violence is going to be ready to roll on February 23rd.
10. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
Still no word on where this colt will race next. Pletcher
already has horses pointing toward the Risen Star, Fountain of Youth, Gotham,
Tampa Bay Derby, and Rebel Stakes -- which is pretty much every Derby prep race
there is between now and the Spiral Stakes. So with that in mind, it seems
likely that Capo Bastone is going to have to run against one on his stablemates
-- perhaps in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) against Violence.
11. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
Turned in another really nice workout on February 12th,
traversing a half-mile in :47.80 at Santa Anita. It has been confirmed that his
next start will come in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) on Sunday, so we'll
soon be able to get a better feel for what kind of a colt he is.
12. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
Went five furlongs in a nice 1:01.93 at Palm Meadows on
February 10th, another nice step toward a start in the Gotham. Personally, I'm
looking forward to seeing which Overanalyze shows up in the Gotham -- will we
see the one that ground his way to victory in the Remsen, or the one that
showcased an eye-catching turn-of-foot to win the Futurity?
13. Oxbow (Awesome
Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Cruised five furlongs in a moderate 1:02.60 this morning,
but don't let the slow time fool you -- the track seemed a bit heavy this
morning, and his work was actually the second-fastest of the morning at that
distance, missing the bullet by just a fifth of a second.
14. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob
Baffert
Breezed a half-mile in :48.00 at Santa Anita on February
12th, after which it was announced that he will make his next start in the
Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds. The more I think about this colt
the more I start to like him, which explains why he is ranked 14th this week
after sitting 21st last week.
15. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark
Casse
His career thus far has been eerily similar to that of
his stablemate Prospective. Both Dynamic Sky and Prospective began their
careers at Woodbine; both finished off-the-board in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Both began their three-year-old season with a victory in the Pasco; both then
ran second in the Sam. F Davis Stakes. Hopefully, Dynamic Sky's Derby
dreams will end better than Prospective's, for the latter colt clipped heels at
the start of the Derby and wound up eighteenth.
16. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd
Pletcher
Breezed five furlongs in 1:01.01 on February 10th in
preparation for a start in the Risen Star Stakes, where he will be ridden for
the first time by Rosie Napravnik. As it will be his two-turn debut, I'd just
like to see him finish up strongly to secure a spot in the superfecta.
17. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by
Kiaran McLaughlin
No word yet on where this colt will run next, but he
hasn't breezed since his maiden victory on January 26th, so it's probably safe
to assume that he won't seem him again until March.
18. Cerro (Mr.
Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion
Although his biggest success has come on dirt, Cerro
actually has a strong turf pedigree, being a full brother to the stakes-placed
two-time turf winner Sacham Spirit. And don't forget that his sire, Mr.
Greeley, has produced a number of successful turf runners, including Juddmonte
Spinster Stakes (gr. I) winner Aruna. So it should come as no surprise if Cerro
takes to the turf strongly in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) next month.
19. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained
by Doug O'Neill
Turned in yet another bullet workout this morning,
cruising six furlongs in 1:13.40 at Santa Anita. O'Neill seems to be training
him the same way he trained I'll Have Another last year, with numerous long,
quick breezes. Will it result in another Derby success? Time will tell.
20. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by
Steve Asmussen
His next start is scheduled to come in the Risen Star Stakes,
where he will face a very deep and very talented field of runners. But here's
the interesting part -- jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rode Proud Strike to his
maiden victory, but has chosen to ride recent Fair Grounds allowance winner
Departing in the Risen Star. As a result, Proud Strike will be ridden by a new
jockey in the Risen Star. That new jockey -- wouldn't you know it! -- is Gary
Stevens.
21. Fortify (Distorted Humor - Kotuku, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mahmoud Al Zarooni.
He's drawn gate four in the UAE 2,000 Guineas (UAE-III),
where he will face -- among others -- the unbeaten group I winner Soft Falling
Rain and group III winner Glass Office. Please note that Fortify is no longer
trained by Kiaran McLaughlin -- he is now trained by Mamoud Al Zarooni.
*****
With a number of major Derby preps coming up over the
next several days, we can expect a number of major changes to my next top
twenty. Regardless of what happens, you can probably expect to see Dewey
Square and Uncaptured back on the list, as both have turned in
recent workouts and seem to be back on the right track.
-Keelerman
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