Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 2-1-13

1. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown

He inherits the top spot due to the disappointing effort from Dewey Square in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). Normandy Invasion continues to turn in easy half-mile works at Palm Meadows in preparation for the Risen Star, but with that race still several weeks off, it's very possible that some other colt could step up and displace him from my top spot before then.

2. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.

His victory in the Holy Bull Stakes proves to me that he's the real deal. Not only did he flash a great deal of tactical speed, he also showed the ability to finish powerfully going two turns. The fact that he broke the track record in the process was icing on the cake.

3. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher

The juvenile champion was hardly disgraced in finishing second in the Holy Bull, given that he probably broke the track record as well in defeat. From a Beyer speed figure perspective, it was the best race of his career by a substantial margin. Some will say the Holy Bull proves he can't get ten furlongs, but I don't see it that way at all -- he was pulling away powerfully from the rest of the field, and even the best of stayers can lose.

4. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher

He's up to five furlongs in his training, having gone that distance in an easy 1:01.90 on January 27th, but he clearly has a ways to go yet before returning to the races.

5. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark Casse

Due to a very unfortunate oversight, Dynamic Sky has been accidentally excluded from my recent Derby lists, despite his eye-catching victory in the Pasco Stakes last month. Perhaps ranking him #5 is a bit high, but given the way he finished in the Pasco, coupled with his grade I form as a juvenile, I think he warrants it. We'll learn more about him on Saturday, when he starts as the favorite in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs.

6. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert

Now I'm stumped. Here is War Academy, a sharp debut winner trained by Bob Baffert that has been breezing half-miles on the main track. Then, out of the blue, he works five furlongs on . . . turf? Yes, turf. Now, there's enough turf in his pedigree to suggest that War Academy could prove a very good runner over the grass, but I must admit I'm surprised to see him breeze over it. I'm starting to wonder if it's the Kentucky Derby that this colt is pointing toward . . . being owned by Michael Tabor, John Magnier, and Derrick Smith, perhaps the English Derby is in War Academy's future! :)

7. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Turned in his second work of the year on January 27th, going a half-mile in a rather sharp :48.09 seconds. It was a major step forward off of his previous breeze -- a half-mile in :50.90 -- which is good news, since he's scheduled to make his three-year-old debut on February 23rd.

8. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Like Violence, he's really starting to pick up his training, going a half-mile at Palm Meadows in :47.88 on January 27th, the third-fastest of the morning at that distance. Furthermore, it was nearly four seconds quicker than his work one week earlier.

9. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

LeComte winner is already back on the work tab, having gone four furlongs in :49.60 at Oaklawn on January 27th. There's been a lot of talk about his front-running style possibly being a detriment -- many feel he'll have to learn to rate in order to be a factor further down the road -- but I personally feel that he could be one of those rare types that can go to the front and just keep on going, grinding away opponents with never-ceasing speed and stamina. Please note how much his pedigree resembles that of Paynter.

10. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Gets a big test on Saturday when he starts as the projected heavy favorite in the Withers Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct, but anything close to the performance he showcased when breaking his maiden should get the job done. The lone concern is that he has had numerous starting gate issues in the past, and a poor start from post position three could severely compromise his chances. But assuming he gets off okay, it appears to be his race to win.

11. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher

I haven't heard anything about his next-race plans, but a race in late February would seem to suit his schedule . . . the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star, both of which fall on the 23rd, seem like logical options, especially the latter since Pletcher is already pointing Violence to the Fountain of Youth.

12. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert

He will make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) on Saturday, a race won by I'll Have Another last year. It's a pretty big step up in class off of one seven-furlong maiden race, but he'll only be facing three rivals, and he looks like the lone front-runner, so he should get a fairly easy trip. The question is simply whether or not he is good enough.

13. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans

Some will be surprised that I still have Dewey Square ranked this high following his dismal Holy Bull performance, but I think the key to interpreting his effort was that it was just too bad to be believed. If he had made a decent challenge and then tired to be beaten ten or twelve lengths, I would accept it at face value and conclude he wasn't good enough. But to be beaten nearly thirty lengths says to me that something went wrong. Perhaps he didn't care for getting dirt kicked in his face for the first time. But whatever the reason, let us recall that 2011 Preakness Stakes (gr. I) winner Shackleford was able to rebound from a similarly bad effort in the 2011 Fountain of Youth (gr. II), so perhaps Romans can pull off a similar achievement with Dewey Square.

14. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin

Prior to last Saturday, Transparent was just an ordinary colt that had turned in a couple of decent efforts without ever finding the winner's circle. But on Saturday, he proved to the world that he is something special indeed when he won a two-turn maiden special weight at Aqueduct by nearly six lengths -- after being carried out fourteen or fifteen paths wide (no, that is not a typo!) when a fellow runner bolted entering the backstretch. Despite this horrendous trip, Transparent worked his way back toward the inner rail, and then proceeded to win the race as though nothing had happened. This well-bred colt seems to be finally figuring himself out, and it's very possible that more improvement is still to come.

15. Cerro (Mr. Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion

Flashed a new dimension in winning a nine-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream on Saturday, going to the lead and holding off all challenges to win in fairly decisive fashion. It was a large step forward off of his third-place finish in a similar race on New Year's Day, and this Irish-bred colt should only get better. It sounds as though a run in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) on turf could be next, followed by a start in the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. II) at Turfway Park.

16. He's Had Enough (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Doug O'Neill

The Robert B. Lewis should tell us a lot about this colt. As inconsistent as he has been, the fact of the matter remains that his lone effort on dirt thus far resulted in a head defeat to Shanghai Bobby in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). Forget his dismal efforts on turf and synthetic tracks -- if a return to dirt in the Lewis results in another Breeders' Cup-caliber performance, then He's Had Enough is going to be moving way up on just about everyone's Derby lists.

17. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill

Sham Stakes winner wasn't entered in the Robert B. Lewis and has only breezed once since then, which suggests that the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn on February 18th is a possible goal.

18. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek

Grabbed a quarter in the Holy Bull and raced greenly thereafter, so it's probably wise to forgive his distant defeat. Trainer Kenny McPeek has a number of changes planned for his next start, including the addition of blinkers. He also feels that a longer homestretch will help, so don't be surprised if Frac Daddy shows up at Fair Grounds sometime this winter.

19. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen

He's breezed twice since his maiden victory, most recently clocking five-eighths in 1:03 on January 28th. I haven't heard anything in regards to where he will run next, but being that he's based in Louisiana, the Risen Star or the Southwest are probably on the radar.

20. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Oxbow's stablemate and fellow Derby prep race winner breezed a half-mile in :48.80 on the last day of January at Oaklawn Park, a very sharp work that was the second-fastest of the morning at that distance.

21. Tiz a Minister (Ministers Wild Cat - Tiz a Mistress, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by Paul Aguirre

I decided to extend this list to twenty-one horses again in order to include this highly promising colt who rallied from absolutely out of the clouds to win the California Breeders Champion Stakes at Santa Anita. Dead-last early on, he unleashed a simply tremendous rally rounding the far turn, gobbling up ground at an unprecedented rate to win in decisive fashion. I personally hand-timed his last-half mile in about :47 2/5 seconds, with splits of :11 2/5, :23 1/5, and :35 1/5. Maybe it was the result of the wet track, but any horse that can rally like that deserves a great deal of respect!

*****

There are several other notable colts entered to race this weekend, and big performances by any of them could launch them into my top twenty, or even my top ten. Among the ones I'm looking forward to watching most are Long River, who is entered in the Wither Stakes; Verrazano, who will contest an allowance race at Gulfstream Park; Forty Tales, an unbeaten Todd Pletcher-trained colt that is entered in the Hutcheson Stakes; Air Squadron, who will attempt to break his maiden at Gulfstream on Saturday; Tiz the Truth, who will be trying to do the same at Santa Anita; and Den's Legacy, runner-up in the Sham and an entrant in the Robert B. Lewis.

On a side note, you may have noticed that both Power Broker and Titletown Five have been removed from my top twenty. The reason is that these colts have not turned in works this year, and they are running out of time to get ready for the Derby. Should they return to the work tab within the next week or two, I will probably add them back in.

-Keelerman