Deciphering this afternoon's $300,000 Southwest Stakes
(gr. III) at Oaklawn Park basically comes down to one question: Will Bob
Baffert's promising allowance winner Super Ninety Nine romp to another
impressive victory?
If you answer "yes" to that question, that's
fine. You're handicapping is done. But if you answer "no", then you
had better be prepared for a couple more hours of work.
It's pretty much that simple. Bob Baffert has dominated
Oaklawn's Derby preps in recent years, sweeping the 2012 Arkansas Derby, the
2012 Rebel Stakes, the 2011 Rebel Stakes, the 2010 Rebel Stakes, and both
divisions of the 2012 Southwest Stakes. That's more than a little impressive.
So, if you think that he's going to continue his streak, then there's no reason
in the world why you wouldn't pick Super Ninety Nine. He's a nice colt, no
doubt. He earned a Beyer speed figure of 100 for his allowance win, and he had
previously placed second in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) last
November. He possesses a great deal of tactical speed, and should be prominent
from the start of the Southwest.
On the other hand, it is worth noting that in 2012 --
when Baffert swept all three of the graded Derby preps -- the California-based
colts were, in general, better than those from the rest of the country.
Remember, California colts swept the Derby 1-2, the Preakness 1-2-3, the
Haskell 1-2, and a variety of Derby preps across the nation as well. This year,
the opposite appears to be true -- the California colts have been having
trouble holding their own against their Eastern-based rivals. After all,
Shanghai Bobby and Violence came east to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
and CashCall Futurity (gr. I), and just yesterday, the well-regarded
California-shipper Title Contender was beaten in an allowance race here at
Oaklawn.
But if you think that the California colts aren't up to
par this year, and wish to pass on Super Ninety Nine in favor of the locals,
you're soon going to find that very little separates the locals in terms of
talent. For example, five of the ten colts entered in the Southwest are exiting
the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, where they ran 1-2-3-5-6. The top three
finishers -- Will Take Charge, Texas Bling, and Always in a
Tiz -- were separated by little more than a neck at the finish. Brown
Almighty, who finished fourth, was ten lengths behind them, but came out of
the race with a lung infection that surely compromised his performance. And Officer
Alex (6th) raced wide throughout and made a nice middle move before
retreating in the final quarter mile.
My point? Determining which of these five colts will
emerge the best today will not be easy.
The remaining four entrants have equally cloudy form. Big
Lute was brilliant winning a six-furlong maiden special weight earlier this
month, but how will he fare around two turns? Fear the Kitten turned in
a decent rally to be third in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III), but was beaten
thirteen lengths by the winner. Channel Isle showed determination to win
a one-mile allowance race here at Oaklawn last month, but the third-place
finisher was absolutely crushed in an allowance race yesterday afternoon, which
doesn't bode well for Channel Isle's chances. Heaven's Runway won a
stakes at Presque Isle Downs last year, but has been disappointing in every
start beyond 6-1/2 furlongs and isn't really bred to go this far.
So what does it all mean? The way I interpret it, Super
Ninety Nine holds a tactical advantage and should be able to steal this
race in gate-to-wire fashion. Will Take Charge looks like the best of
the Smarty Jones runners, as I was highly impressed by the way he won despite
getting hung wide on both turns. And given how well the Midnight Lute’s
offspring have been running lately, Big Lute should have every chance at
carrying his form around two turns and making his presence felt to the wire.
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment