Get ready. The semi-final round has started. From here on
out, mistakes cannot be made. The stakes have been increased to five times
higher than they were before.
This is the second stage of Road to the Kentucky Derby.
All previous Derby prep races mean little to nothing. No longer are the Derby
candidates competing for a mere ten points to the winner. They are now
competing for fifty points, which should be more than enough to secure them a
berth in the Run for the Roses.
Two such fifty-point races are scheduled to be conducted
today, and perhaps as a result of their increased value, both events have drawn
huge, competitive fields.
A victory in either of these races will assure you a spot
in the Derby. A runner-up effort will put you right in contention. A
third-place finish will keep you on the trail. A fourth-place finish will
garner a few token points. Anything worse may end up keeping you out of the
Derby.
The second stage has begun. Let's start handicapping.
Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)
(Note: At the time of writing, Sky Captain had already
been scratched from the Fountain of Youth, but Falling Sky, a later scratch,
was still in the race.)
In ways, this race will be the most anticipated of the
weekend, having drawn the unbeaten CashCall Futurity (gr. I) stakes winner Violence.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Medaglia d'Oro also has a victory in the
Nashua Stakes (gr. II) on his record, stamping him as a colt of exceptional
quality. His Futurity win was especially impressive, as he gave a very good
impression in the homestretch and finished up strongly despite tracking a
fairly strong early pace. Furthermore, he's drawn gate three for today's race,
a perfect post draw considering the short run to the first turn. Add in his
bullet five-furlong work last week, and you have yourself a very deserving
favorite.
However, from a Beyer speed figure perspective, Violence
holds no real edge. He earned a 92 for his CashCall victory, a figure that has
been matched, nearly matched, or exceeded by four of his rivals. Furthermore,
this will be his first start since December, and there's always the possibility
that he'll need to get a race under his belt before returning to top form.
If that is the case, there are plenty of other colts to
choose from. Personally, I find Speak Logistics very intriguing. Trained
by Edward Plesa Jr., who upset Eclipse champion Shanghai Bobby last month with
Itsmyluckyday, Speak Logistics showed great talent as a two-year-old, romping
to victory in the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes at Calder while earning a
Beyer of 90. A run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) yielded
less-than-stellar results -- he finished seventh -- but he was only beaten 5
3/4 lengths after tracking a quick pace. His most recent run came in the Sam F.
Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs, where he finished fourth after
getting cut off while making what appeared to be a winning move along the rail.
He's drawn a bit wide in post eight, but if he can avoid getting hung wide on
the first turn, I think Speak Logistics will turn in a good effort.
Cerro and He's
Had Enough also deserve considerable respect. The first-mentioned colt won
a nine-furlong allowance race in front-running fashion here at Gulfstream last
month, giving a generally good impression while earning a respectable speed
figure. Trained by Graham Motion and owned by Team Valor International, Cerro
seems to be improving in leaps and bounds, and if he can continue his upward
trajectory later this afternoon, he may be poised to launch himself into the
Derby picture in a big way.
As for He's Had Enough, you've got to give respect
to any colt that is beaten a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but
his most recent efforts have caused the son of Tapit to lose some of his
luster. A nine-length defeat to Violence in the CashCall Futurity was followed
by a nearly seven-length loss to Flashback in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr.
II). Now, He's Had Enough had a legitimate excuse in the Lewis, as the slow
pace and small field forced him to try tracking the early pace rather than
closing from beyond, which has been his most successful style. Nevertheless, he
would need a career-best effort to defeat Violence, and that may be difficult
to do while starting from post nine.
As deep as this field is, it comes as somewhat of a
surprise that Falling Sky is the only other graded stakes winner, aside
from Violence, entered in the race. Winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)
last month, Falling Sky possesses a great deal of tactical speed, which he used
to steal the Davis in gate-to-wire fashion. However, he was tiring noticeably
at the finish of the Davis, lending to the belief that a mile and a sixteenth
may be a bit beyond his best distance. Drawing gate ten will make his task even
more difficult.
Orb and Majestic
Hussar were both impressive winning allowance races here at Gulfstream last
month, with Orb closing from last to win a nine-furlong event and Majestic
Hussar sprinting to a clear victory over Palace Malice in a seven-furlong
affair. In both cases, however, they have things to prove. Orb, after
unleashing a strong fourth-quarter run to take the lead, slowed down
drastically in the final furlong of his allowance victory, traversing the
distance in :13.36 seconds while allowing runner-up Duke of the City to regain some
lost ground. Majestic Hussar will be running beyond seven furlongs for the
first time, and must prove that he can be as good on a fast track as he is on
off track -- both of his victories have come over sloppy, sealed tracks.
Rounding out the field are Joshua's Comprise,
fourth in both the Gulfstream Park Derby and Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III); Elmutahid,
a dominating maiden winner in the slop here at Gulfstream last month; and Sr.
Quisqueyano, runner-up in the Gulfstream Park Derby and a distant eighth in
the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). All have shown flashes of talent, the latter
colt especially, but all three would need to show great improvement to upset
the favorites.
Selections: Violence, Speak Logistics, Cerro
Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)
(Note: At the time of writing, He's Had Enough,
Departing, and Sunbean have been scratched.)
Personally, I am looking forward to this race even more
than the Fountain of Youth, for while the Risen Star lacks a big-name star like
Violence, the overall depth of the Risen Star makes it a very appealing race
with many possible outcomes.
The favorite will almost undoubtedly be Normandy
Invasion, who turned in a simply spectacular rally around the far turn of
last year's Remsen Stakes (gr. II), making up seven lengths in a mere
quarter-mile before eventually finishing second by a nose. The Chad
Brown-trainee has been training sharply for his return, and seems to be sitting
on another huge race. The lone concern is that the long Fair Grounds
homestretch may reveal a potential stamina deficit, as Normandy Invasion's
pedigree is not really geared toward route races, but going a mile and a
sixteenth, I really don't think it will prove to be an issue.
One of the more interesting horses in the race is Code
West, who ships in from California for trainer Bob Baffert. A strongly-bred
son of Lemon Drop Kid, Code West enters off of a runner-up effort to Super
Ninety Nine in a one-mile allowance race -- and as we all know, Super Ninety
Nine returned to demolish the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn last
Monday. Furthermore, Code West is bred to relish off-tracks, something which is
highly likely at Fair Grounds today. With Martin Garcia flying in to ride the
colt, I believe that Code West has an excellent shot at upsetting Normandy
Invasion, assuming he gets a decent trip from post two.
Another major contender is Oxbow, who turned in
one of the most impressive performances of the Derby prep season when winning
the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) here at Fair Grounds by 11 1/2 lengths. In the
homestretch -- while all the other runners were weaving and exhausted -- Oxbow
was still running straight as an arrow, pouring on speed to win in simply
spectacular fashion. Some have pointed to the fact that he set a slow pace in
the LeComte, and feel he will lose when forced to set faster fractions. Perhaps
that will be the case, further down the road. But with no other true speed
horses entered in the Risen Star, who’s to say Oxbow won't get the same slow
pace today?
Palace Malice, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, probably has the speed to match strides
with Oxbow early -- he tracked a strong pace in a seven-furlong allowance race
at Gulfstream last month en route to a runner-up finish -- but he seems to
prefer rallying from a few lengths off the lead, which is where I expect him to
be today. While this race will mark his first start around two turns, the fact
that he is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin suggests that the added
distance will not pose a problem. And with Fair Grounds master Rosie Napravnik
in the saddle, he should get a good trip as well.
No Derby prep would be complete without a highly
promising up-and-coming maiden winner, which is exactly what Proud Strike is.
After finishing third and second in his first two starts, Proud Strike came
through with a dominating 7 1/2-length triumph last time out, for which he
earned a strong Beyer speed figure of 91. Adding to the intrigue is the fact
that Gary Stevens, the recently unretired Hall of Fame jockey, has flown in
from California to ride him. Winning from the rail won't be the easiest of
tasks, but at least we know he'll save some ground around the first turn!
Rounding out the projected main contenders is Mylute,
who placed in a trio of stakes last year, including the Delta Downs Jackpot
Stakes (gr. III), in which he made an eye-catching five-wide rally around the
far turn before flattening out a bit in the homestretch. He rebounded from that
defeat to win a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance race here at Fair Grounds
by a massive 10 3/4 lengths, thus stamping him as one of the favorites for this
race. However, it's worth noting that Rosie Napravnik -- who rode Mylute in
that allowance win -- has chosen to ride Palace Malice instead.
The rest of the entrants would have to step up sharply to
contend for the top spot. Golden Soul finished second to Oxbow in the
LeComte, but was, of course, beaten over eleven lengths. Agent has won
two of his three starts, including a one-mile allowance race at Sam Houston,
but lacks the speed figures to really be competitive. Likewise, Ive Struck a
Nerve has turned in some nice efforts, including a runner-up finish in the
Sugar Bowl Stakes two starts back, but was fourth in the LeComte and has never
run a Beyer over 74. Bethel broke his maiden in a claiming race two
starts back, then was fourth in a starter allowance race just six days ago. Hardrock
Eleven fired a big one when beaten a half-length in the Allen's Landing
Stakes last time out, but the distance could be just a bit challenging for him,
and like others, his speed figures aren't very high. Circle Unbroken won
the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) as a two-year-old, stamping himself as a
quality colt, and while he was beaten 16 1/4 lengths when sixth in the LeComte,
that was also his first start since August, and his trainer stated beforehand
that the colt wasn't fully fit. I expect that Circle Unbroken will show an
improved performance today, although whether or not it will be enough to
contend for the top prize is open to question.
Selection: Oxbow, Code West, Normandy Invasion
-Keelerman
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