With three official Kentucky Derby prep races scheduled
for this afternoon, as well as a host of other fascinating races, this weekend
promises to be one of the most exciting thus far along the Triple Crown trail.
As there is a lot to discuss, we won't waste time with an extensive
introduction. Let's just start handicapping!
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the Santa Anita main track
Only four horses have been entered in the second leg of
California's Derby prep race schedule, meaning that every entrant is guaranteed
to earn at least one Kentucky Derby qualification point.
The morning line favorite at 3-5 is Flashback, a
highly promising Bob Baffert-trained son of Tapit. The colt has only run once,
breaking his maiden in sharp fashion going seven furlongs on December 8th.
Being that this will be both his first start on dirt and his first around two
turns, one could question whether his 3-5 odds are two low. However, given that
he is also the lone front-runner on a track that is kind to speed, the
stretch-out and step up in class shouldn't prove much of an issue.
Baffert also trains the second choice on the morning
line, 5-2 shot Den's Legacy. Winner of the Generous Stakes (gr. III) on
turf last fall, he enters the Lewis off of a third-place finish in the CashCall
Futurity (gr. I) and a runner-up effort in the Sham Stakes (gr. III). Give him
some credit -- this horse is extremely versatile, and has decent tactical speed
and a decent finishing kick. But he probably lacks the speed to contend with
Flashback early, and may not have quite the same late run as He's Had Enough.
If he is to win this race, he's going to have to time his challenge just right.
One of the more intriguing horses in the race is He's
Had Enough, who races for the same connections as I'll Have Another, who
won this race last year en route to victory in the Kentucky Derby. He is a
rather inconsistent colt, finishing well back in three of his four stakes
races, but the one time he ran on dirt, he was beaten just a head in the
Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) -- a stellar performance indeed! Apparently,
he's pretty lazy in the mornings, and it's difficult to get good works into
him, but he went six furlongs in 1:10 4/5 on January 25th, which seems to say
that he's coming into this race in good form.
Rounding out the field is Little Jerry, a son of
Candy Ride trained by Richard Baltas. In his first start, he rallied from last
to win a one-mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight at Betfair Hollywood
Park by a neck, defeating subsequent winners Curly Top and Persuasive Paul. In
his only start since then, he finished eighth in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I)
while failing to mount a challenge of any kind. It's hard to say exactly why he
performed so poorly, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of doubt and
assume that he will rebound today.
Now, as much as I like Flashback, and as good as I
think he'll be further down the road, I'm going to side with He's Had Enough,
in hopes that he will relish the return to dirt and return to his Breeders' Cup
Juvenile form. That said, I can see any one of these four horses winning, and
this is definitely one of those races that is best enjoyed for the sport of it,
rather than as a handicapping challenge.
Selections: He's Had Enough, Flashback, Little Jerry
Withers Stakes (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles on the Aqueduct main track
This race marks the stakes debut of Revolutionary,
Todd Pletcher's highly promising maiden winner that earned a Beyer speed figure
of 102 in late December at Aqueduct. A well-bred son of War Pass, anything near
a repeat of his maiden score should put Revolutionary in the winner's circle
this afternoon.
However, should Revolutionary bounce a bit off of that
huge effort, there are plenty of other colts that could steal the victory.
First and foremost in my mind is Long River, a son of A.P. Indy out of
the 2006 Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. I) winner Round Pond. Owned by Darley
Stable and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the colt broke his maiden third-time
out in sharp fashion, then finished an even fourth in the Jerome Stakes (gr.
II) here at Aqueduct last month. However, he bled just a bit that day, so the
additional of Lasix for today's race should greatly help his chances. And don't
forget that his jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., has been on a real hot streak as of
late.
Siete de Oros, beaten just a head in the Jerome, has proven to be a fairly consistent
colt, and deserves respect for that reason alone. Amerigo Vespucci,
third in the Jerome, made a nice middle move in that race before flattening
out. It was a good effort for his first time around two turns, and improvement
is definitely possible today for the son of Henrythenavigator. Escapefromreality
has shown a great deal of talent sprinting, but is stretching out beyond six
furlongs for the first time and doesn't have the strongest of route pedigree. Smooth
Bert won the Damon Runyon Stakes last time out, but his recent workouts
have been a bit on the slow side, and it's worth noting that both of his
victories have come over wet, sealed tracks. Valid, a sharp maiden
winner last time out, will run as a coupled entry with Long River and possesses
a good finishing kick. Champion Boy has only run once, finishing third
in a six-furlong maiden special weight on January 20th, and while he may
improve with additional distance, it's hard to back a maiden in a race like
this.
Selections: Revolutionary, Long River, Siete de Oros
Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles on the Tampa Bay Downs main track
(Note: At the time of writing, Northern Lion has been
scratched.)
This is a fairly deep and evenly-matched field, but Dynamic
Sky looks like a very deserving favorite. Last month, he rallied for a
convincing victory in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes, despite encountering a
great deal of traffic at the top of the stretch. Trained by Mark Casse, he
should only improve with the added distance, and should be even sharper than he
was for the Pasco. I find it difficult to envision him not finishing in the
exacta.
Speak Logistics also looks like a nice colt, and if anyone can beat
Dynamic Sky, it's probably him. Trained by Edward Plesa Jr. -- who won the Holy
Bull Stakes (gr. III) last week with Itsmyluckyday -- Speak Logistics won the
Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes with a Beyer speed figure of 90 last
October, then finished just a half-length behind Dynamic Sky when seventh in
the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). He hasn't raced since then, but he's
training very sharply and appears ready to turn in a good effort.
My Name is Michael finished second in the Display Stakes at Woodbine last
fall, stamping himself as a colt of fine quality, and has since been
transferred to the barn of Bill Mott. He's training nicely for his dirt debut,
and will have top jockey Joel Rosario in the saddle, so all signs seem to
indicate that he's sitting on a good effort.
Divine Ambition finished third to Dynamic Sky in the Pasco after setting
the pace, and while on the surface he doesn't appear to be the type that would
appreciate the additional distance, the possibility exists that he could use
his great speed to set a slow pace and hang on late.
On the other hand, that is probably the strategy that Falling
Sky will attempt to employ. The winner of a 6-1/2 furlong allowance
optional claiming race on December 15th, Falling Sky also has a great deal of
early speed, and will likely use it to try and wire the race. Should he and
Divine Ambition hook up in a speed duel, it will likely compromise the chances
of both. On the other hand, if they both settle down and set a slow pace
together, they could both have a great deal left in the tank for the stretch
run -- perhaps even enough to hold off the favorites.
We won't go into detail on every horse in this race, for
this post is getting long already, but let's take a moment to briefly mention Midnite
Poppa. Trained by Nick Zito, the son of Unbridled's Song broke his maiden
nicely here at Tampa on December 26th, and while he will have to overcome
breaking from the far outside post position today, he seems to be a talented
enough runner, and he will have top jockey Jose Lezcano in the saddle.
Selection: Dynamic Sky, Speak Logistics, Falling Sky
Other Races of Note
At Gulfstream Park . . .
Race 5: Hugely impressive debut winner Verrazano will
attempt to stretch his speed to a mile in this allowance optional claiming
race. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of More Than Ready looks poised to join
the Derby trail with another good performance. Gunderman, runner-up to
Bradester in a 1 1/16th miles allowance race on New Year's Day, and Eton
Blue, a narrow maiden winner trained by Nick Zito, look like the next-best
horses in the race, but it's difficult to envision Verrazano losing this
afternoon.
Race 8: Air Squadron, who finished a troubled
third to Eton Blue in a recent one-mile maiden special weight, looks like the
one to beat in today's nearly identical race. Todd Pletcher's Doherty deserves
respect off of a runner-up effort to Looking Cool in a race similar to this
one, but doesn't look quite as good as Air Squadron.
Race 10: The nearly unbeaten Merit Man is the
morning line favorite in the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II), but I am
intrigued by 8-1 shot Honorable Dillon, who rallied fast to finish
second in a recent 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race here at
Gulfstream. Forty Tales, sharp winner of an allowance at Parx Racing,
should also be right in contention.
At Santa Anita Park . . .
Race 1: This one-mile maiden special weight has drawn a
field of five, led by Bob Baffert's Tiz the Truth, who was beaten just a
head by the highly-regarded Demonic last month. Colburn, late-running
fourth to the good colts Curly Top and Footbridge in a recent maiden special
weight, should be coming on fast at the finish.
-Keelerman
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