This weekend is a bit light in terms of Kentucky Derby
prep races -- actually, there are no official preps on the agenda -- so instead
of simply focusing on the day's best races, we shall begin today's Triple Crown
Countdown with a quick look at the first Kentucky Derby future wager pool,
which opened yesterday.
My first thought upon seeing the odds was that there are
several severe overlays. Imagine this -- there are twenty-four betting
interests. Fully eleven of them -- Capo Bastone, Code West,
Delhomme, Den's Legacy, Dynamic Sky, Falling Sky, Frac
Daddy, Mylute, Super Ninety Nine, Vyjack, and Will
Take Charge -- are 99-1 or higher, and a twelfth -- Uncaptured --
currently sits at 96-1.
In my opinion, the best value in the pool is Code West.
What's not to like? He's trained by Bob Baffert. He has a strong
mile-and-a-quarter pedigree. He just finished second in a strong allowance race
at Santa Anita Park, earning a Beyer speed figure of 94. In contrast, that is a
higher figure than anything Flashback (20-1), Oxbow (48-1), and Violence
(9-1) have earned. Furthermore, Code West is bound for a graded stakes race
next time out, and a victory -- which is certainly not out of the question --
would drastically lower his odds in future wager pool #2.
Capo Bastone, Dynamic Sky, Frac Daddy, and Super Ninety Nine also
look like exceptional values. The latter colt earned a Beyer of 100 when
defeating Code West in that recent allowance race, and that 100 is among the
highest figures earned by a member of this three-year-old crop. And Frac Daddy
-- wasn't he on everyone's Derby lists prior to his defeat in the Holy Bull? If
you're willing to forgive his poor effort, which was surely the result of a
hoof injury suffered early in the race, then I think now would be the time to
lock in a great price.
Another colt that looks a bit high-priced to me is Holy
Bull winner Itsmyluckyday, who currently sits at 20-1. In contrast,
Shanghai Bobby -- whom he defeated in the Holy Bull -- is 9-1. Assuming
Itsmyluckyday wins the Florida Derby, or even finishes a close second, he'll
likely be a lot lower than 20-1 on Derby day.
****
A couple of other things to add before we move on to
handicapping today's races… First off, it has been confirmed that Uncaptured,
who has been dealing with hoof issues since his victory in the Kentucky Jockey
Club Stakes (gr. II) last November, is pointing toward a start in either the
Spiral Stakes (gr. III) or the Rushaway Stakes on March 23rd. He still isn't
back on the work tab, but it shouldn't be long now before he turns in his first
breeze of the year.
Also, Titletown Five, who broke his maiden in
spectacular fashion for trainer D. Wayne Lukas last October, turned in his
second breeze of the year this morning when he traversed a half-mile in :48.20
at Oaklawn Park. It was the second-fastest of sixty-two such morning works,
signaling that the colt could be back to the races within the next month or so.
****
Time to start handicapping! We'll begin with the Miracle
Wood Stakes at Laurel, the only stakes for three-year-old colts scheduled for
this afternoon.
Miracle Wood Stakes
8 furlongs on the Laurel Park main track
As I write this, two of the eight entrants have been
scratched, leaving a field of just six to contest the $125,000 stakes.
Heavily favored on the morning line at 7-5 is Vegas No
Show, winner of the Dover Stakes and runner-up in the Nashua Stakes (gr.
II) last year. However, his two most recent efforts have been below par for him
-- a 28 1/2-length defeat in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) was followed by a 5
3/4-length loss in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II). On the other hand, his last two
workouts have been very sharp, including a bullet five-furlong breeze, and he
looks poised to turn in a much-improved performance.
Alpha Mike Foxtrot has plenty of experience, having raced ten times as a
juvenile, and enters this race off of a runner-up effort to the well-regarded
Ore Pass in the Frank Whitely, Jr. Stakes here at Laurel. Previously, he had
won the Maryland Juvenile Championship Stakes -- also at Laurel -- with a
powerful late rally. Expect to see him rallying fast in the homestretch.
Dynamic Strike, a well-bred son of Smart Strike, has won two consecutive races at a mile
in sharp fashion, but is taking a fairly substantial step up in class and will
have to be sharp to beat the two favorites. Where's Dominic has won two
of his three starts sprinting, but is now stretching beyond six furlongs for
the first time. Lunar Rock has finished first, second, or third in nine
of his ten starts, but has been beaten soundly by Alpha Mike Foxtrot in his
last two starts. Rounding out the field is Yougotthatgoinforu, who wired
a one-mile allowance race in December at Penn National. Obviously, he does
possess some tactical speed, but this is a much tougher field than the ones
he's been facing at Penn National, and he appears to be in a bit deep here.
Selections: Alpha Mike Foxtrot, Vegas No Show, Lunar Rock
Other Races of Note
At Fair Grounds . . .
Race 7: Hard to say if any Triple Crown candidates will
emerge from this 8.5-furlong maiden special weight on the turf, but I'll be
watching nonetheless to see if Hansen's full brother Gunderson can
finally break his maiden. He lost his first two starts by a combined 30 1/2
lengths, but flashed much better form last time out to be beaten just 2 1/4
lengths on the main track here at Fair Grounds. Perhaps he won't win, but he
has the speed to be a contender from the start.
Race 10: This six-furlong allowance optional claiming
race marks the return of Carson's Crown, a debut winner that hasn't run
since finishing a troubled second in the Hollywood Juvenile Championships
Stakes (gr. III) last July. Formerly trained by John Sadler, he will make his
debut for Michael Stidham in this race. Favorite Uncle, third to Malibu
High in a similar event to this one in December; sharp maiden claiming winner Take
It Like a Man; and the experienced Tap and Trade are other
well-regarded entrants.
At Gulfstream Park . . .
Race 5: Forget the wonderful quartet of graded stakes
races later on the card! The highlight of the day for the Triple Crown-obsessed
is the 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race that has drawn such
promising names as Little Distorted (3rd in Spectacular Bid Stakes, beat
Revolutionary in debut), Declan's Warrior (1st in debut at Belmont;
unraced since), Park City (Pletcher-trained maiden winner at Saratoga;
unraced since); John Gordon (5th in Sanford for Dale Romans; unraced
since); Almost English (5th in Gulfstream Park Derby); and Jay Eye
See (7th to Majestic Hussar and Palace Malice in recent allowance;
previously broke maiden by daylight.)
Race 6: Todd Pletcher has the favorite in this mile and a
sixteenth maiden special weight, the colt in question being Tapulous. A
son of (who else!) Tapit, the colt has only run once, finishing a so-so fourth
in a six-furlong maiden special weight here at Gulfstream last month. Given
that he flashed some good speed that day, I would think that Tapulous will have
a good shot at stretching out and stealing this race on the front end. Wabbajack,
third to Looking Cool and Doherty in a recent maiden special weight; Dyker
Beach, beaten a half-length in a race similar to this one last month; the
consistent O T B Bob; and the promising Chad Brown-trainee Saint
Vigeur are the other main contenders, the latter colt looking especially
strong.
Race 7: Todd Pletcher also has the favorite in this race,
a 1 1/16th miles allowance race on the turf. His runner here is Jack Milton,
who was highly impressive breaking his maiden under these same conditions last
month. The possessor of an exceptional turn-of-foot, Jack Milton looks tough to
beat in this spot. The speedy Play It Loud; the stakes-placed Newfound
Zapper, and the well-bred stretch-out sprinter Sayaad are the other
logical contenders.
At Santa Anita . . .
Race 7: Nine three-year-old colts have been entered in
this six-furlong maiden special weight, with the morning line favorite being
Bob Baffert's first-timer starter Zee Bros. A son of Brother Derek out
of the Montbrook mare Nyanza -- a very different pedigree, don't you agree? --
Zee Bros has been training up a storm for months, and looks ready to win. To be
perfectly honest, I think he may launch himself on to everyone's Derby lists
tomorrow. Other notable entrants include Bench Press, third to the
promising Cabello Del Cielo in a recent maiden special weight; Joelito,
unraced since finishing second by a neck to Den's Legacy in a maiden race at
Del Mar last summer; and Salutos Amigos, fourth to Let Em Shine
sprinting six furlongs on January 19th.
-Keelerman
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