As promised, here is part two of this week's Triple Crown
Countdown, covering the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita and a couple
of other noteworthy races at Santa Anita and Oaklawn.
Let's begin!
San Vicente Stakes (gr. II)
Seven furlongs at Santa Anita Park
Although this race does not offer any Kentucky Derby
qualification points, it is nevertheless a starting point for a number of
potential Derby candidates, including three -- Belvin, Shakin It Up, and War
Academy -- from the barn of Bob Baffert.
Not surprisingly, Baffert's trio are the three morning
line favorites, with Shakin It Up leading the way at 5-2. A son of
Midnight Lute, the colt has not run since finishing a troubled third in the
Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) at Betfair Hollywood Park last November. Note
that he was beaten just a neck by Super Ninety Nine on that occasion; Super
Ninety Nine being the favorite for the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) tomorrow
afternoon. He's been training nicely for his return, having turned in a couple
of sharp five-furlong works this month, and he appears to be the horse to beat.
Belvin
flashed potential when second in his November debut to subsequent stakes winner
Distinctiv Passion, and came right back one month later to romp in a 6-1/2
furlong maiden here at Santa Anita. Like Shakin It Up, he's been training very
well, and will have leading rider Rafael Bejarano in the saddle. The
interesting part is that he has shown so much talent sprinting, despite the
fact that he is a son of Empire Maker out of a Storm Bird mare. With a pedigree
like that, he should have no trouble stretching out further down the road.
War Academy has a similar profile, being by Giant's Causeway out of an A.P. Indy mare.
There's little doubt that route races are in his future, but he still showed
enough talent to break his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs at Hollywood Park last
November. He got sick shortly thereafter and didn't return to the work tab
until late December, but he's trained well since then and should be in the mix
today. I don't really expect him to win a race like this, as seven furlongs
looks to be way short of his best distance, but a decent effort should set him
up well for a two-turn graded stakes in the near future.
Moving past the Baffert trio, we find Caballo Del
Cielo and Treasury Bill. Both colts are coming off of hugely
impressive debut victories garnered through drastically different running
styles. Caballo Del Cielo, who is trained by Steve Asmussen, broke his maiden
sprinting 5-1/2 furlongs last month in gate-to-wire fashion. He ran the opening
quarter mile that day in a blazing :21.86 seconds, which makes it clear that he
could wind up the early leader in today's race. We know he's got class -- he
was beaten just 3 1/4 lengths as a maiden in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) last
fall -- but he was beaten 4 1/2 lengths by Shakin It Up two starts back, and
it's hard to say if he's improved enough to turn the tables.
In contrast, Treasury Bill will be making his first
start against winners after rallying from out of the clouds to break his maiden
going 6-1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita on January 27th. Like Belvin and War Academy,
seven furlongs is undoubtedly too short for him -- he's got a regal pedigree
that screams Kentucky Derby -- but don't be surprised to see him finishing
strongly late. My lone concern is that his maiden winner came over a wet,
sealed track; a track that seemed to be playing in favor of closers. It's
possible that his late kick could be somewhat compromised by today's fast
track.
Rounding out the field is Mudflats, who looked
good breaking his maiden by 3 1/4 lengths two starts back at Aqueduct over a
sloppy sealed track. Purchased privately thereafter and transferred to the care
of Doug O'Neill, Mudflats disappointing greatly in his only start since,
finishing seventh in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) on January 5th. He's got the
speed to be in contention from the start, but it looks as though he'll have to
step up a few notches to beat this field.
Selections: Shakin It Up, Belvin, War Academy
Other Races of Note
At Oaklawn Park . . .
Race 7: Bob Baffert's Title Contender, who
finished last in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and CashCall Futurity
(gr. I) after breaking his maiden sharply in September, has shipped out for
this 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race and should win without
trouble if at his best. Midas Dancer ran second to Gulfport and Fear the
Kitten in a pair of allowance races at Churchill last fall, and has never
finished worse than third in six starts. He looms the most likely winner if
Title Contender fails to bring his best race. Hornet finished
next-to-last in a strong renewal of the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes last
December, then returned to finish third behind Southwest Stakes (gr. III)
entrant Channel Isle in an allowance race here at Oaklawn. Another good effort
today would bode well for Channel Isle's chances tomorrow. Red Wings,
from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, lost his first six starts before claiming a
narrow victory last time out. He's got a determined running style, but may not
be quite as good as the favorites in this spot.
At Santa Anita . . .
Race 3: This is the first division of a one-mile maiden
special weight that drew enough entries to be run as two races. The favorite is
Wine List, who has finished second in a pair of one-mile maiden races on
the turf. However, the colt I have my eye on is Misdeed, who finished
second by nearly eight lengths to the promising Tiz the Truth in a race similar
to this one two weeks ago. A victory by Misdeed today would, of course, further
stamp Tiz the Truth as a colt of high quality. Aleander, a troubled
seventh in his debut for Baffert on December 26th; and Handsome Dennis,
third in his debut sprinting three weeks ago, are other prominent contenders.
Race 5: The second division of this maiden race has drawn
arguably the stronger field, for it includes names like Footbridge and Syndicated
(2nd and 3rd to Curly Top in a recent one-mile MSW), Pure Loyalty (2nd
to Treasury Bill in that one's maiden victory), Govenor Charlie (2nd to
Let Em Shine in a 6f MSW; finished ahead of subsequent winner Salutos Amigos), Major
Affair (4th to the Demonic and Tiz the Truth in a 7f MSW), and Colburn (4th
to Tiz the Truth in that one's maiden victory.) Don't be surprised if the
winner of this race goes on to contest a major Derby prep race in the near future!
-Keelerman
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