Could Gary Stevens win the Kentucky Derby?

When jockey Gary Stevens announced his return to riding following seven years of retirement, I doubt anyone really knew what to expect. There's no denying that Stevens is among the best jockeys that horse racing has ever seen. Before his retirement, he had won three Kentucky Derbies, a pair of Preaknesses, and a trio of Belmonts. His record in the Breeders' Cup was equally stellar, with eight victories, fifteen seconds, and eleven thirds. All told, he had won 4,888 races, and over $221 million in purse money.

But seven years is a long time, and I'm sure many people questioned whether Stevens could successfully return to race riding after such a lengthy absence. Well, he's been at it a month now, and he's already won the $151,750 San Marcos Stakes (gr. II) aboard Slim Shadey and the $86,500 Wishing Well Stakes aboard Purim's Dancer. And while his win total stands at just four victories, his mounts have are finishing in the top three at a 50% clip, which compares favorably with jockeys like Joseph Talamo (46%), Garrett Gomez (46%), Irad Ortiz Jr. (47%), Rafael Bejarano (51%), John Velazquez (52%), and Javier Castellano (53%).

But perhaps the most astonishing thing about Stevens' comeback is that he may have a shot at winning a fourth Kentucky Derby, something only three jockeys before him have ever accomplished. More astonishing yet is that he may have two shots.

On February 2nd, Stevens guided a colt named Tiz the Truth to a 7 3/4-length victory in a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita, for which Tiz the Truth earned a Beyer speed figure of 94. Not only was that figure higher than the one earned by Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) winner Flashback three races later, it was also one of the highest earned by any three-year-old colt in California this year. And wouldn't you know it, Tiz the Truth is trained by Bob Baffert, for whom Stevens won the 1997 Kentucky Derby aboard Silver Charm.

But wait -- what is this news I'm hearing from New Orleans, Louisiana? Stevens is going to come for a visit next Saturday? To ride the highly promising Proud Strike in the Risen Star Stakes? Impossible! Brian Hernandez Jr. rides Proud Strike!

What's this? Hernandez is going to ride Departing instead? I see. So Gary gets the mount on this beautifully-bred son of Smart Strike, that broke his maiden by 7 1/2 lengths last time out? Sounds like a real Derby contender to me . . .

What -- there's more? Now you're pulling my leg! He is also going to ride Sharp Cat Stakes winner Midnight Ballet in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes? Inconceivable! Midnight Ballet is a legitimate Kentucky Oaks contender, and it's too much to ask me to believe that just one month into his comeback, Gary has already found himself two potential Derby mounts and a Kentucky Oaks filly to boot . . .

You had better believe it. While there are still plenty of details to be finalized, and plenty of races left to be run, it is entirely possible that Gary Stevens will find himself on television screens across the country come the first Saturday in May -- sitting on a Derby runner, rather than behind the NBC desk with Tom Hammond.

-Keelerman