Although there are three Kentucky Derby prep races
scheduled for this weekend -- officially only two, since the San Vicente
isn't worth any points -- this weekend is actually just an appetizer for what
is to come. Next week, the second stage of the Kentucky Derby prep schedule
begins, with the value of each prep race jumping from 10 points to the winner
to a massive 50 points to the winner.
This week's Triple Crown Countdown shall be split into
three separate posts, each one covering one of the three weekend prep races.
The first one, which you are currently reading, will cover the El Camino Real
Derby (gr. III). The second, which shall be posted tomorrow, will cover the San
Vicente Stakes (gr. II). The last, scheduled for Monday, will discuss the
Southwest Stakes (gr. III).
So without further ado, let's get started!
El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)
Nine furlongs at Golden Gate Fields
To me, this race looks like a two-horse battle between Manando
and Zeewat, who are -- not surprisingly -- the two favorites. The
first-mentioned colt is one of two Bob Baffert-trainees entered in the race,
and is coming off of a sharp third-place finish to Goldencents and Den's Legacy
in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita. What was encouraging about his
performance that day was that he set a very honest pace -- 1:10.06 for
three-quarters of a mile -- and fought on tenaciously in the homestretch when
challenged by Goldencents. Now, there are plenty of other speedy horses in this
race, so the possibility exists that Manando could get caught up in a
destructive pace duel. But on the other hand, it's also possible that Manando
is simply the best horse in the race.
Zeewat has
won three stakes races and is a perfect 2-for-2 since adding blinkers, but
lacks the same flashy Beyer speed figures of Manando. However, what he does
have is experience at Golden Gate Fields, and a proven ability to overcome
traffic issues. Last time out, he was forced to check sharply at the start of
the California Derby, but quickly settled into fourth position and rallied well
in the stretch to win by a half-length. And don't forget that he is trained by
Jerry Hollendorfer and will be ridden by Russell Baze, the two kings of
Northern California racing.
If anyone can upset the top two choices, it's probably
Baffert's other runner, Carving. The colt broke his maiden first time
out for a claiming price at Del Mar, then stepped up to win the C. B.
Afflerbaugh at Fairplex Park over next-out stakes winner Monument. That effort
was followed by a distant fourth in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I), a victory
in the Real Quiet Stakes, and a poor sixth in the CashCal Futurity (gr. I).
Stepping down into grade III company today, Carving should have every chance at
regaining his best form, and has the speed to be a presence from the start. I
expect to see him settle just off of the early lead, perhaps in second or
third, before attacking in the homestretch.
The remainder of the field would have to showcase major
improvement to win. Wildcat Moon was beaten just a half-length by Zeewat
in the California Derby, but that was after he ducked in sharply at the start
and caused Zeewat to check. He's got decent speed, but stretching out to nine
furlongs against this company will be a very difficult task. Rush In and
Nina's Dragon finished just a half-length apart when second and third to
the talented Greeley Awesome in a recent allowance race, and while both have
flashed talent, Rush In was soundly beaten by Zeewat three starts back, and neither
have run a Beyer speed figure over 77. Dice Flavor broke his maiden
nicely at Betfair Hollywood Park two starts back, and was beaten just
three-quarters of a length in an allowance optional claiming race at Santa
Anita last time out, but is trying synthetic for the first time, and has yet to
earn a Beyer over 74. Nevertheless, his sire is Scat Daddy, whose son Daddy
Nose Best won this race last year, and he's shown a nice turn-of-foot on the
turf, so Dice Flavor could potentially be a very overlooked contender in this
race. North Pacific began his career at Hastings Park, and comes into
this race off a nice victory going six furlongs here at Golden Gate, but he's
facing winners for the first time and seems better sprinting. Rounding out the
field is Counting Days, who won a maiden claiming race at Keeneland last
fall by 10 1/4 lengths before finishing seventh in the Generous Stakes and
fifth in a six-furlong allowance sprint. The distance and surface seem right,
but he'll need a major step forward to defeat this field.
Selections: Manando, Zeewat, Dice Flavor
Other Races of Note
At Gulfstream Park . . .
Race 4: Eight horses were originally entered in this
nine-furlong maiden special weight, but the scratch of Quiros will leave seven
in the starting gate. Todd Pletcher's Abraham is the morning line
favorite off of a nose defeat in his debut sprinting. Being by Distorted Humor
out of an El Prado mare, Abraham shouldn't have any trouble with the added
distance. Successful Brother has finished second in two consecutive
maiden special weights at Calder and Gulfstream, but failed to rally despite a
favorable pace scenario on both occasions. Nick Zito's The Candidate turned
in a nice rally from well off behind to finish fourth in a one-mile maiden race
here at Gulfstream, and should appreciate the added distance. If Abraham gets
leg-weary in his first start around two turns, expect The Candidate to be
absolutely flying late.
Race 5: This nine-furlong maiden special weight was
originally scheduled to be run on the turf, but the race was moved to the main
track following heavy rains at Gulfstream, the result being eight scratches.
That leaves a field of six to contest the race, led by Todd Pletcher's Unitarian.
The colt has been soundly beaten in all three of his starts thus far, but with
Pulpit and Dynaformer in his immediate pedigree, he should at least enjoy the
distance of today's race -- although it didn't help him last month when he
finished fourth in a similar race here at Gulfstream. Personally, I am intrigued
by Pontiff, a Dale Romans-trained half-brother to Pulpit. Although he
showed nothing when ninth in his debut last month, he has trained well enough
since then, and I'm hopeful that he'll show improvement today. Conservationalist,
also trained by Romans, could also improve off of a deceptively good sixth in a
maiden special weight on the turf.
Race 9: To me, this 1 1/16th miles allowance optional
claiming race is one of the highlights of the weekend, for this race marks the
return of Capo Bastone. The son of Street Boss ran third in both the
Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year,
despite trying to rally over speed-favoring tracks on both occasions.
Subsequently transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher, Capo Bastone looks like
a deserving favorite in this spot, but if he needs to get a race under his belt
before returning to top form, there are plenty of other horses here that could
pull off the upset. The most obvious are Sky Commander, runner-up to
Dynamic Sky in the Pasco Stakes last month; Duke of the City, who
finished second to Orb in a recent nine-furlong maiden special weight; and Edge
of Reality, who absolutely romped in his debut at Parx Racing for trainer
Anthony Dutrow. Given that Anthony Dutrow's horses rarely win first-time out,
one has to think that Edge of Reality could be sitting on a very big
performance today.
At Santa Anita Park . . .
Race 7: The two favorites in this seven-furlong maiden
special weight are Del Mar Sunset and Okaad, a pair of Bob
Baffert-trained colts with a lot of potential. Del Mar Sunset has run once
before, finishing third by a half-length behind the highly-regarded pair
Demonic and Tiz the Truth in a race identical to this one. Okaad has also run
just once, finishing fourth behind romping winner Treasury Bill in a 6-1/2
furlong maiden special weight on January 27th. There are plenty of other
promising horses in this race, including the first-time starter Mistaken
Identity, but it's hard to envision Baffert losing this race.
-Keelerman
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