Showing posts with label Violence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Violence. Show all posts

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Orb edges Violence in thrilling Fountain of Youth

The promising allowance winner Orb became a graded stakes winner on Saturday when he rallied past the previously undefeated Violence to win the $400,000 Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park by a half-length.

Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, Orb got off to a clean start from post one but quickly settled back in seventh place as Majestic Hussar led the way through quick fractions of :23.11 and :45.45 seconds. Violence, Cerro, and Sr. Quisqueyano were racing as a group in second, followed closely by Elmutahid. Speak Logistics was another four lengths back in sixth, followed by Orb, He's Had Enough, and Joshua's Comprise.

Moving round the final turn, Violence made a strong move to challenge Majestic Hussar for the lead, but the move may have come a bit soon, for it resulted in a six-furlong fraction of 1:08.85 seconds, and truly blazing time. Turning for home, Violence drew clear of Majestic Hussar, but Orb was rallying strongly in the center of racetrack, and stuck his head in front about a sixteenth of a mile from home. Violence dug in gamely and tried to repel the challenge, but Orb maintained his advantage to the wire, which he reached in a quick 1:42.24 seconds for a mile and a sixteenth. The time was only 0.43 seconds off the track record set by Itsmyluckyday earlier this year.

Speak Logistics rallied for third, many lengths behind the top pair. Majestic Hussar, He's Had Enough, Cerro, Sr. Quisqueyano, Joshua's Comprise, and Elmutahid completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Shug McGaughey and owned by Stuart Janney III and Phipps Stable. A son of Malibu Moon out of Lady Liberty, by Unbridled, Orb has now compiled a record of 3-0-1 from 6 starts, with earnings of $321,050.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-23-13


Get ready. The semi-final round has started. From here on out, mistakes cannot be made. The stakes have been increased to five times higher than they were before.

This is the second stage of Road to the Kentucky Derby. All previous Derby prep races mean little to nothing. No longer are the Derby candidates competing for a mere ten points to the winner. They are now competing for fifty points, which should be more than enough to secure them a berth in the Run for the Roses.

Two such fifty-point races are scheduled to be conducted today, and perhaps as a result of their increased value, both events have drawn huge, competitive fields.

A victory in either of these races will assure you a spot in the Derby. A runner-up effort will put you right in contention. A third-place finish will keep you on the trail. A fourth-place finish will garner a few token points. Anything worse may end up keeping you out of the Derby.

The second stage has begun. Let's start handicapping.

Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)

(Note: At the time of writing, Sky Captain had already been scratched from the Fountain of Youth, but Falling Sky, a later scratch, was still in the race.)

In ways, this race will be the most anticipated of the weekend, having drawn the unbeaten CashCall Futurity (gr. I) stakes winner Violence. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Medaglia d'Oro also has a victory in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) on his record, stamping him as a colt of exceptional quality. His Futurity win was especially impressive, as he gave a very good impression in the homestretch and finished up strongly despite tracking a fairly strong early pace. Furthermore, he's drawn gate three for today's race, a perfect post draw considering the short run to the first turn. Add in his bullet five-furlong work last week, and you have yourself a very deserving favorite.

However, from a Beyer speed figure perspective, Violence holds no real edge. He earned a 92 for his CashCall victory, a figure that has been matched, nearly matched, or exceeded by four of his rivals. Furthermore, this will be his first start since December, and there's always the possibility that he'll need to get a race under his belt before returning to top form.

If that is the case, there are plenty of other colts to choose from. Personally, I find Speak Logistics very intriguing. Trained by Edward Plesa Jr., who upset Eclipse champion Shanghai Bobby last month with Itsmyluckyday, Speak Logistics showed great talent as a two-year-old, romping to victory in the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes at Calder while earning a Beyer of 90. A run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) yielded less-than-stellar results -- he finished seventh -- but he was only beaten 5 3/4 lengths after tracking a quick pace. His most recent run came in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs, where he finished fourth after getting cut off while making what appeared to be a winning move along the rail. He's drawn a bit wide in post eight, but if he can avoid getting hung wide on the first turn, I think Speak Logistics will turn in a good effort.

Cerro and He's Had Enough also deserve considerable respect. The first-mentioned colt won a nine-furlong allowance race in front-running fashion here at Gulfstream last month, giving a generally good impression while earning a respectable speed figure. Trained by Graham Motion and owned by Team Valor International, Cerro seems to be improving in leaps and bounds, and if he can continue his upward trajectory later this afternoon, he may be poised to launch himself into the Derby picture in a big way.

As for He's Had Enough, you've got to give respect to any colt that is beaten a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but his most recent efforts have caused the son of Tapit to lose some of his luster. A nine-length defeat to Violence in the CashCall Futurity was followed by a nearly seven-length loss to Flashback in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II). Now, He's Had Enough had a legitimate excuse in the Lewis, as the slow pace and small field forced him to try tracking the early pace rather than closing from beyond, which has been his most successful style. Nevertheless, he would need a career-best effort to defeat Violence, and that may be difficult to do while starting from post nine.

As deep as this field is, it comes as somewhat of a surprise that Falling Sky is the only other graded stakes winner, aside from Violence, entered in the race. Winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) last month, Falling Sky possesses a great deal of tactical speed, which he used to steal the Davis in gate-to-wire fashion. However, he was tiring noticeably at the finish of the Davis, lending to the belief that a mile and a sixteenth may be a bit beyond his best distance. Drawing gate ten will make his task even more difficult.

Orb and Majestic Hussar were both impressive winning allowance races here at Gulfstream last month, with Orb closing from last to win a nine-furlong event and Majestic Hussar sprinting to a clear victory over Palace Malice in a seven-furlong affair. In both cases, however, they have things to prove. Orb, after unleashing a strong fourth-quarter run to take the lead, slowed down drastically in the final furlong of his allowance victory, traversing the distance in :13.36 seconds while allowing runner-up Duke of the City to regain some lost ground. Majestic Hussar will be running beyond seven furlongs for the first time, and must prove that he can be as good on a fast track as he is on off track -- both of his victories have come over sloppy, sealed tracks.

Rounding out the field are Joshua's Comprise, fourth in both the Gulfstream Park Derby and Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III); Elmutahid, a dominating maiden winner in the slop here at Gulfstream last month; and Sr. Quisqueyano, runner-up in the Gulfstream Park Derby and a distant eighth in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). All have shown flashes of talent, the latter colt especially, but all three would need to show great improvement to upset the favorites.

Selections: Violence, Speak Logistics, Cerro

Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)

(Note: At the time of writing, He's Had Enough, Departing, and Sunbean have been scratched.)

Personally, I am looking forward to this race even more than the Fountain of Youth, for while the Risen Star lacks a big-name star like Violence, the overall depth of the Risen Star makes it a very appealing race with many possible outcomes.

The favorite will almost undoubtedly be Normandy Invasion, who turned in a simply spectacular rally around the far turn of last year's Remsen Stakes (gr. II), making up seven lengths in a mere quarter-mile before eventually finishing second by a nose. The Chad Brown-trainee has been training sharply for his return, and seems to be sitting on another huge race. The lone concern is that the long Fair Grounds homestretch may reveal a potential stamina deficit, as Normandy Invasion's pedigree is not really geared toward route races, but going a mile and a sixteenth, I really don't think it will prove to be an issue.

One of the more interesting horses in the race is Code West, who ships in from California for trainer Bob Baffert. A strongly-bred son of Lemon Drop Kid, Code West enters off of a runner-up effort to Super Ninety Nine in a one-mile allowance race -- and as we all know, Super Ninety Nine returned to demolish the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn last Monday. Furthermore, Code West is bred to relish off-tracks, something which is highly likely at Fair Grounds today. With Martin Garcia flying in to ride the colt, I believe that Code West has an excellent shot at upsetting Normandy Invasion, assuming he gets a decent trip from post two.

Another major contender is Oxbow, who turned in one of the most impressive performances of the Derby prep season when winning the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) here at Fair Grounds by 11 1/2 lengths. In the homestretch -- while all the other runners were weaving and exhausted -- Oxbow was still running straight as an arrow, pouring on speed to win in simply spectacular fashion. Some have pointed to the fact that he set a slow pace in the LeComte, and feel he will lose when forced to set faster fractions. Perhaps that will be the case, further down the road. But with no other true speed horses entered in the Risen Star, who’s to say Oxbow won't get the same slow pace today?

Palace Malice, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, probably has the speed to match strides with Oxbow early -- he tracked a strong pace in a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream last month en route to a runner-up finish -- but he seems to prefer rallying from a few lengths off the lead, which is where I expect him to be today. While this race will mark his first start around two turns, the fact that he is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin suggests that the added distance will not pose a problem. And with Fair Grounds master Rosie Napravnik in the saddle, he should get a good trip as well.

No Derby prep would be complete without a highly promising up-and-coming maiden winner, which is exactly what Proud Strike is. After finishing third and second in his first two starts, Proud Strike came through with a dominating 7 1/2-length triumph last time out, for which he earned a strong Beyer speed figure of 91. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that Gary Stevens, the recently unretired Hall of Fame jockey, has flown in from California to ride him. Winning from the rail won't be the easiest of tasks, but at least we know he'll save some ground around the first turn!

Rounding out the projected main contenders is Mylute, who placed in a trio of stakes last year, including the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), in which he made an eye-catching five-wide rally around the far turn before flattening out a bit in the homestretch. He rebounded from that defeat to win a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance race here at Fair Grounds by a massive 10 3/4 lengths, thus stamping him as one of the favorites for this race. However, it's worth noting that Rosie Napravnik -- who rode Mylute in that allowance win -- has chosen to ride Palace Malice instead.

The rest of the entrants would have to step up sharply to contend for the top spot. Golden Soul finished second to Oxbow in the LeComte, but was, of course, beaten over eleven lengths. Agent has won two of his three starts, including a one-mile allowance race at Sam Houston, but lacks the speed figures to really be competitive. Likewise, Ive Struck a Nerve has turned in some nice efforts, including a runner-up finish in the Sugar Bowl Stakes two starts back, but was fourth in the LeComte and has never run a Beyer over 74. Bethel broke his maiden in a claiming race two starts back, then was fourth in a starter allowance race just six days ago. Hardrock Eleven fired a big one when beaten a half-length in the Allen's Landing Stakes last time out, but the distance could be just a bit challenging for him, and like others, his speed figures aren't very high. Circle Unbroken won the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) as a two-year-old, stamping himself as a quality colt, and while he was beaten 16 1/4 lengths when sixth in the LeComte, that was also his first start since August, and his trainer stated beforehand that the colt wasn't fully fit. I expect that Circle Unbroken will show an improved performance today, although whether or not it will be enough to contend for the top prize is open to question.

Selection: Oxbow, Code West, Normandy Invasion

-Keelerman

Monday, February 18, 2013

Fountain of Youth Stakes entries: Violence headlines large field of 11

The unbeaten Violence, winner of the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Nashua Stakes (gr. II) last year, will face ten rivals when making his three-year-old debut in the $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Violence has drawn gate three of eleven, and excellent post position given the short run to the first turn. Javier Castellano has the mount on the son of Medaglia d'Oro, who is owned by Black Rock Thoroughbreds.

Also entered in this very deep race are Falling Sky, winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III); He's Had Enough, runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and most recently third in the Sham Stakes (gr. III); Cerro and Sky Captain, the 1-2 finishers in a recent nine-furlong allowance race; Majestic Hussar, who beat the highly-regarded Palace Malice in a recent seven-furlong allowance race; Orb, who overcame a troubled start to win a nine-furlong allowance race last month; and Speak Logistics, winner of the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes last year and most recently fourth to Falling Sky in the Sam F. Davis Stakes despite a troubled trip.

Post Positions:
1 Orb
2 Joshua's Compromise
3 Violence
4 Majestic Hussar
5 Elmutahid
6 Cerro
7 Sky Captain
8 Speak Logistics
9 He's Had Enough
10 Falling Sky
11 Sr. Quisqueyano

-Keelerman

Friday, December 28, 2012

Keelerman's Derby Top Ten 12-28-12

1. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
I was very impressed by his effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. After being hung wide on both turns, he appeared to be on his way to a distant defeat at the top of the stretch. However, he seemed to find another gear when challenged by Tesseron and finished very well in the final eighth of a mile, winning his personal duel with Tesseron and closing 2 1/2 lengths on the winner. Coming off of two very easy victories, I was pleased to see him dig deep when it mattered and give it his all.

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He made a simply tremendous run around the final turn of the Remsen Stakes, and while he did flatten out just a bit in deep stretch to be beaten a nose, I think that he has the potential to keep improving with leaps and bounds. Also take note of the fact that the final time in the Remsen -- 1:50.13 -- was a full two seconds faster than Unlimited Budget ran in winning the Demoiselle Stakes one race earlier.

3. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
In my opinion, Capo Bastone's efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the FrontRunner Stakes were two of the finest performances turned in by a two-year-old this year. In the FrontRunner, he dropped back to last over a very speed-favoring track, yet still rallied to be beaten just a half-length for second. In the Juvenile, he again trailed the field over a speed-favoring surface, yet still rallied to loom menacingly in the stretch before flattening out a bit to finish third. It was later discovered that he had bled. He has since been transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher and is currently training in Florida.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
You can't deny that Shanghai Bobby has talent. He's unbeaten in five starts, he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he won the Champagne, he won the Hopeful . . . you don't sweep that trio if you lack talent. However, speed-favoring tracks seemed to help his chances in both the Juvenile and the Champagne, and he doesn't have the strongest mile-and-a-quarter pedigree.

5. Gulfport (Unbridled's Song - Dream Supreme, by Seeking the Gold) Trained by Dale Romans
This guy has flashed talent since his first start, but really put it all together two starts ago, romping to victory in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He backed up that effort with an impressive triumph in a one-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs, which he won by 2 3/4 lengths in the quick time of 1:35.93. It appears as though the sky is the limit for this talented colt.

6. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's only made one start, but it was a good one. In a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Betfair Hollywood Park, War Academy settled back into third while racing three wide, then finished up strongly to win by a commanding 1 3/4 lengths. His final time of 1:17.66 wasn't anything stellar, but this colt is not bred to be a sprinter. He is bred top-and-bottom to be a stayer -- he's a son of Giant's Causeway out of an A.P. Indy mare.

7. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It took him a couple of tries, but Violence finally seems to be getting this racing thing figured out. After running greenly to victory in both a maiden special weight and the Nashua Stakes (gr. II), he put it all together in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), racing along the rail for much of the race before splitting horses in the stretch and drawing off late to win by 1 1/4 lengths. He looks like a good one.

8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
This colt's career has been an interesting one. After losing his first three starts -- while competing against horses like Gulfport, Violence, and Maybe So -- he broke through in terrific fashion last time out, winning a seven-furlong allowance race at Churchill Downs by nine lengths while stopping the clock in 1:23.84. The runner-up, Bradester, was in turn ten lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and has since returned to break his own maiden in impressive fashion.

9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
This fine colt showed a tremendous deal of grit in the Remsen Stakes, digging in when challenged by Normandy Invasion in the homestretch to turn certain defeat into victory. For his effort, he earned a Beyer speed figure of 99, one of the highest of the year for a two-year-old colt. The only reason I rank him so low is because he seems to be more of a grinder type, and doesn't have the same turn-of-foot as Normandy Invasion.

10. Long River (A.P. Indy - Round Pond, by Awesome Again) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Beautifully-bred Darley colt lost his first two starts -- albeit against some very good horses -- before breaking through with a three-quarter length triumph going a mile and seventy yards at Aqueduct in rather quick time. He is currently scheduled to contest the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct on January 5th, where he will get an opportunity to prove himself as an elite Derby contender.

-Keelerman

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Violence remains unbeaten in CashCall Futurity

Nashua Stakes (gr. II) winner Violence successfully shipped across the country to win the $750,000 CashCall Futurity (gr. I) on Saturday afternoon at Betfair Hollywood Park, bringing his unbeaten record to a perfect 3-for-3.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, the colt had previously won the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) in good fashion at Aqueduct and a maiden special weight at Saratoga. With this strong record, he was sent off as the favorite at 1.20-1.

Ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, Violence was just a tad slow out of the gate but quickly recovered to race in fifth as Really Mr Greely, Fury Kapcori, Title Contender, and Oxbow set quick fractions of :22.97 and :46.07. Simon Eyes, Carving, Dirty Swagg, Den's Legacy, Little Jerry, and He's Had Enough were the early trailers.

Rounding the final turn Title Contender began to drop back, leaving Fury Kapcori on the lead with Really Mr Greely and Oxbow in pursuit. In the meantime, Violence was tucked in along the rail looking for racing room.

As the field came into the homestretch, Really Mr Greely and Oxbow both drifted out a bit, providing an opening for Violence to run through. With a burst of acceleration the favorite advanced, rallying past Fury Kapcori inside the eighth pole to win going away by a length.

Den's Legacy rallied well to finish third, 2 1/2 lengths behind the runner-up. Oxbow finished another 5 1/4 lengths back in fourth, a nose in front of He's Had Enough and a head in front of Carving. Dirty Swagg, Little Jerry, Really Mr Greely, Simon Eyes, and Title Contender completed the order of finish.

The winner, a son of Medaglia d'Oro out of the Gone West mare Violent Beauty, is owned by Black Rock Thoroughbreds. He has earned $543,000.

-Keelerman

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

CashCall Futurity Entries: Trainer Bob Baffert enters four

Trainer Bob Baffert has already won six editions of the CashCall Futurity, including three of the last four. But on Saturday, the Hall of Fame trainer will try and bring his record to seven when he sends out a quartet of two-year-olds to contest the 32nd running of the $750,000 race, which will be held at Betfair Hollywood Park.

His group is comprised of Generous Stakes (gr. III) winner Den's Legacy; Real Quiet Stakes winner Carving; Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) winner Really Mr Greely; and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) also-ran Title Contender. It is a very strong group of runners, but believe it or not, none of them are expected to be favored.

That honor will most likely go to He's Had Enough, most recently runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) at Santa Anita Park. Trained by Doug O'Neill, the son of Tapit has trained well since the Breeders' Cup and looks like the horse to beat, but drawing the rail could potentially compromise his chances.

Violence, winner of the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct, is also expected to be well-bet.

Post Positions:
1 He's Had Enough
2 Den's Legacy
3 Dirty Swagg
4 Carving
5 Fury Kapcori
6 Violence
7 Simon Eyes
8 Really Mr Greely
9 Title Contender
10 Little Jerry
11 Oxbow

-Keelerman

Monday, August 27, 2012

The Juveniles at Saratoga -- August 18-19th, 2012

Todd Pletcher sent out a pair of winners over the course of these two days, with both Violence and Kimono turning in impressive performances that could very well lead to appearances in stakes races next month. But the most impressive winner was probably Sonofasamurai, who looks like a legitimate contender for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) in November.

August 18th

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight
8.5 furlongs on turf for 2yos

Lemon Drop Dream was an odds-on favorite for trainer Steve Asmussen, but after tracking a moderate pace, he failed to accelerate in the homestretch and wound up finishing a close third. In the meantime, Sonofasamurai raced in fourth, split horses in the homestretch, and burst clear under jockey David Cohen to win the race by a decisive three lengths. Kenny McPeek trains the son of First Samurai, who stopped the clock in 1:44.60. Elmutahid set a slow pace of :24.50, :50.55, and 1:15.48 while leading Lemon Drop Dream by a length, steadied a bit when Sonofasamurai split horses, dropped back to fourth passing the eighth pole, then re-rallied to secure second in a four-horse photo.

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight
7 furlongs for 2yos

Trainer Todd Pletcher had the favorite in Violence, who was sent off at 0.80-1 and ran to his odds. With John Velazquez aboard, the son of Medaglia d'Oro tracked the pace in third before finishing up with a determined run to just get the victory over Titletown Five in 1:22.91 seconds. The latter colt set a good pace of :22.54, :45.14, and 1:09.67 before being surpassed late by the favorite. First-time starter Orb reared at the start and trailed the field by fourteen lengths early on, but put in an exceptional late run under Joel Rosario to finish third, beaten just 1 1/4 lengths. He looks like a good one to me.

August 19th

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight
7 furlongs for 2yo fillies

Kimono and Kansas raced as a coupled entry and were sent off at 1-5. Both were coming off of runner-up efforts on the opening day of this Saratoga meet, and in the end, they ran 1-2. But someone had to emerge as the winner, and the victorious filly was Kimono. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the daughter of Bernardini didn't get off to the best of starts, but quickly recovered to take command of the lead while setting fractions of :22.86 and :46.41. From there, she drew off easily under a hand ride from jockey Javier Castellano to win the race by two lengths in 1:24.07. Kansas, from the barn of Wesley Ward, spent much of the race in fourth place before rallying well in the homestretch to finish second. Liberty Girl also put in a good run, closing from fifth to miss second by just a neck.

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight
8.5 furlongs on turf for 2yo fillies

Citizen Emma was the favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher, thanks to her runner-up effort in a similar race here at Saratoga on July 23rd. But after setting a moderately testing pace of :23.58, :48.09, and 1:11.80, she was unable to accelerate sufficiently in the homestretch and wound up finishing sixth. In the meantime, the D. Wayne Lukas-trainee Broken Spell settled into fourth, slowly advanced throughout the race, and out-finished Always Kitten to win the race in 1:42.28 seconds. The latter filly spent most of the race in fifth before rallying to secure second, although never a serious threat to Broken Spell. J'esprit did not get off to a good start, but nevertheless put in a good run to finish third.

-Keelerman