Tomorrow marks a very important day along the Triple Crown trail, with three official Kentucky Derby prep races on the schedule, as well as a multitude of other intriguing races. But before we delve into those races -- which we will be doing tomorrow -- here are a variety of thoughts that have been running through my head during the last week or so:
* Give Itsmyluckyday a ton of credit for his victory in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). He flashed enough early speed to avoid getting caught too wide on the first turn, then wore down the champion Shanghai Bobby to win in track record time. While he doesn't have the strongest of ten-furlong pedigrees, he's certainly not bred to be a sprinter either, and his recent performances give the impression that he'll run all day. Shanghai Bobby also ran very well -- the rail might not have been the place to be last Saturday, and those were very honest fractions he set. Given that it was his first start since the Breeders' Cup, I would think that a much-improved effort is possible next time out.
* Determining the exact reason why Dewey Square was beaten 28 1/2 lengths in the Holy Bull may be impossible -- it was probably a combination of things, including a dislike for getting dirt kicked in his face for the first time. But while it might be tempting to forget about him as a Derby contender, let us recall that his trainer, Dale Romans, was able to save the day with 2011 Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford after that colt was beaten 23 1/2 lengths in the Fountain of Youth.
* A quick look back at the 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile reveals that only one runner, Dynamic Sky, has gone on to win a race. Dynamic Sky, of course, won the Pasco Stakes last month at Tampa Bay Downs and will look to continue his success at Tampa in Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III). However, it might be wise to keep an eye on Speak Logistics, who was beaten just a half-length by Dynamic Sky in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Trained by Edward Plesa Jr., who sent out Itsmyluckyday to win the Holy Bull last week, Speak Logistics has been training sharply and will have Tampa's leading rider Angel Serpa aboard.
* It's beginning to sound as though Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) winner Uncaptured is playing catch-up along the Derby trail . . . a couple of foot issues have kept him out of serious training for many weeks, and while trainer Mark Casse does have the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) tentatively penciled in as Uncaptured's final Derby prep, his first race back remains undetermined. The Rushaway Stakes and the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III) are options.
* Bob Baffert sent out a pair of good colts yesterday afternoon in Super Ninety Nine and Code West, who ran 1-2 in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita. After settling back in second and third, respectively, for the opening half-mile, Super Ninety Nine and Code West both made bids on the outside of front-running Appealing Tale, with Super Ninety Nine getting the jump on his stablemate and holding him off easily to win by 3 1/4 lengths in the very sharp time of 1:35.11. For Super Ninety Nine, it was a dramatically better performance than the one he turned in on December 28th, when he was a dull fourth behind Distinctiv Passion in a six-furlong allowance sprint. For Code West, it was a very encouraging effort for his first start since October, and he should only get better with additional distance.
* Not that this really means anything, but every horse entered in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) is guaranteed to earn a qualification point toward the Kentucky Derby. I'm surprised more didn't enter for that reason alone -- but then again, maybe running fourth and earning one point just isn't worth the trouble.
* That was quite a debut performance from Big Lute this afternoon at Oaklawn. The son of Midnight Lute settled into the three-path early on before taking command around the turn and drawing off powerfully to win by 4 3/4 lengths, stopping the clock for six furlongs in the quick time of 1:10.43 seconds. Trained by Steve Hobby, Big Lute looks bound for a stakes race.
* There hasn't been a lot of talk about him, but Tour Guide has been quietly compiling a very good record at tracks across the country. Feast your eyes on these statistics: He finished second in his debut at Monmouth Park, then broke his maiden there a few weeks later. Then he ran fifth in the Dover Stakes at Delaware Park. Then he shipped to Churchill Downs and won an allowance optional claiming race. Then he went down to Fair Grounds and took the Sugar Bowl Stakes. Most recently, he shipped to Sam Houston Race Park in Texas and won the seven-furlong Allen's Landing Stakes by a half-length. Hard to say if he wants to go any further than that, but he'll get a chance to stretch out in either the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) or Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) later this month.
* Treasury Bill stamped himself as a colt to watch on January 27th when he rallied from out of the clouds to win a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita by 1 1/4 lengths. Trailing by eleven lengths after the opening quarter, and by 7 1/2 with just five-sixteenths of a mile to go, Treasury Bill gobbled up ground in the homestretch like he'd joined the race at the quarter pole and finished up under a long hold late. Given his pedigree, additional distance should not be an issue.
* Another promising Santa Anita maiden winner was Saticoy, who flashed breathtaking speed to win a six-furlong maiden special weight by 4 1/4 lengths last Saturday. With Julien Leparoux aboard, the Gary Mandella-trainee blazed through fractions of :21.50 and :44.16 en route to a final clocking of 1:08.55 seconds. Storm Fighter, from the barn of Bruce Headley, tracked the pace throughout and wound up clearly second best in a performance that suggests he'll be ready to break his own maiden next time out.
* I was highly disappointed by Mountain Eagle's performance in a recent allowance race at Gulfstream Park. Coming off of a sharp maiden victory, I was expecting a breakthrough performance that would launch him en route to a major Derby prep. Unfortunately, he never really fired, giving way readily to be beaten 7 1/2 lengths after tracking a slow early pace. In the meantime, Orb overcame a slightly troubled trip to rally for victory, but he was clearly tiring at the finish and ran the final eighth in a slow :13.36 seconds. However, it's hard to say what to make of that, since he had just run the previous quarter mile in a strong :24 flat.
* Cerro's victory in the other division of Orb's allowance race says a lot about the quality of Bradester and Gunderman, both of whom beat him soundly in different allowance race on January 1st. But in my opinion Cerro may be better than both of them, for he was running against a track bias when beaten on New Year's Day. On a different note, it was encouraging to see Cerro flash more early speed last Saturday, as the ability to go to the lead or take back and wait will be a useful asset further down the road.
-Keelerman
Showing posts with label Dewey Square. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dewey Square. Show all posts
Friday, February 01, 2013
Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 2-1-13
1. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad
Brown
He inherits the top spot due to the disappointing effort from Dewey Square
in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). Normandy Invasion continues to turn in easy
half-mile works at Palm Meadows in preparation for the Risen Star, but with
that race still several weeks off, it's very possible that some other colt
could step up and displace him from my top spot before then.
2. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained
by Edward Plesa, Jr.
His victory in the Holy Bull Stakes proves to me that
he's the real deal. Not only did he flash a great deal of tactical speed, he
also showed the ability to finish powerfully going two turns. The fact that he
broke the track record in the process was icing on the cake.
3. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
The juvenile champion was hardly disgraced in finishing second in the Holy
Bull, given that he probably broke the track record as well in defeat. From a
Beyer speed figure perspective, it was the best race of his career by a
substantial margin. Some will say the Holy Bull proves he can't get ten
furlongs, but I don't see it that way at all -- he was pulling away powerfully
from the rest of the field, and even the best of stayers can lose.
4. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
He's up to five furlongs in his training, having gone that distance in an
easy 1:01.90 on January 27th, but he clearly has a ways to go yet before
returning to the races.
5. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark Casse
Due to a very unfortunate oversight, Dynamic Sky has been
accidentally excluded from my recent Derby lists, despite his eye-catching
victory in the Pasco Stakes last month. Perhaps ranking him #5 is a bit high,
but given the way he finished in the Pasco, coupled with his grade I form as a
juvenile, I think he warrants it. We'll learn more about him on Saturday, when
he starts as the favorite in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs.
6. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
Now I'm stumped. Here is War Academy, a sharp debut winner trained by Bob
Baffert that has been breezing half-miles on the main track. Then, out of the
blue, he works five furlongs on . . . turf? Yes, turf. Now, there's enough turf
in his pedigree to suggest that War Academy could prove a very good runner over
the grass, but I must admit I'm surprised to see him breeze over it. I'm
starting to wonder if it's the Kentucky Derby that this colt is pointing
toward . . . being owned by Michael Tabor, John Magnier, and Derrick Smith,
perhaps the English Derby is in War Academy's future! :)
7. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Turned in his second work of the year on January 27th, going a half-mile in
a rather sharp :48.09 seconds. It was a major step forward off of his previous
breeze -- a half-mile in :50.90 -- which is good news, since he's scheduled to
make his three-year-old debut on February 23rd.
8. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Violence, he's really starting to pick up his training, going a
half-mile at Palm Meadows in :47.88 on January 27th, the third-fastest of the morning
at that distance. Furthermore, it was nearly four seconds quicker than
his work one week earlier.
9. Oxbow (Awesome
Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
LeComte winner is already back on the work tab, having gone four furlongs
in :49.60 at Oaklawn on January 27th. There's been a lot of talk about his
front-running style possibly being a detriment -- many feel he'll have to learn
to rate in order to be a factor further down the road -- but I personally feel
that he could be one of those rare types that can go to the front and just keep
on going, grinding away opponents with never-ceasing speed and stamina. Please
note how much his pedigree resembles that of Paynter.
10. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
Gets a big test on Saturday when he starts as the
projected heavy favorite in the Withers Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct, but
anything close to the performance he showcased when breaking his maiden should
get the job done. The lone concern is that he has had numerous starting gate
issues in the past, and a poor start from post position three could severely
compromise his chances. But assuming he gets off okay, it appears to be his
race to win.
11. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd
Pletcher
I haven't heard anything about his next-race plans, but a race in late
February would seem to suit his schedule . . . the Fountain of Youth and Risen
Star, both of which fall on the 23rd, seem like logical options, especially the
latter since Pletcher is already pointing Violence to the Fountain of Youth.
12. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
He will make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) on Saturday, a race won by I'll Have Another
last year. It's a pretty big step up in class off of one seven-furlong maiden
race, but he'll only be facing three rivals, and he looks like the lone
front-runner, so he should get a fairly easy trip. The question is simply
whether or not he is good enough.
13. Dewey Square (Bernardini -
Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
Some will be surprised that I still have Dewey Square ranked this high
following his dismal Holy Bull performance, but I think the key to interpreting
his effort was that it was just too bad to be believed. If he had made a
decent challenge and then tired to be beaten ten or twelve lengths, I would
accept it at face value and conclude he wasn't good enough. But to be beaten
nearly thirty lengths says to me that something went wrong. Perhaps he didn't
care for getting dirt kicked in his face for the first time. But whatever the
reason, let us recall that 2011 Preakness Stakes (gr. I) winner Shackleford was
able to rebound from a similarly bad effort in the 2011 Fountain of Youth (gr.
II), so perhaps Romans can pull off a similar achievement with Dewey Square.
14. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by
Kiaran McLaughlin
Prior to last Saturday, Transparent was just an ordinary
colt that had turned in a couple of decent efforts without ever finding the
winner's circle. But on Saturday, he proved to the world that he is something
special indeed when he won a two-turn maiden special weight at Aqueduct by
nearly six lengths -- after being carried out fourteen or fifteen paths wide
(no, that is not a typo!) when a fellow runner bolted entering the backstretch.
Despite this horrendous trip, Transparent worked his way back toward the inner
rail, and then proceeded to win the race as though nothing had happened. This
well-bred colt seems to be finally figuring himself out, and it's very possible
that more improvement is still to come.
15. Cerro (Mr.
Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion
Flashed a new dimension in winning a nine-furlong
allowance race at Gulfstream on Saturday, going to the lead and holding off all
challenges to win in fairly decisive fashion. It was a large step forward off
of his third-place finish in a similar race on New Year's Day, and this
Irish-bred colt should only get better. It sounds as though a run in the Palm
Beach Stakes (gr. III) on turf could be next, followed by a start in the Vinery
Spiral Stakes (gr. II) at Turfway Park.
16. He's Had Enough (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Doug
O'Neill
The Robert B. Lewis should tell us a lot about this colt. As inconsistent
as he has been, the fact of the matter remains that his lone effort on dirt
thus far resulted in a head defeat to Shanghai Bobby in the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile (gr. I). Forget his dismal efforts on turf and synthetic tracks -- if
a return to dirt in the Lewis results in another Breeders' Cup-caliber
performance, then He's Had Enough is going to be moving way up on just about
everyone's Derby lists.
17. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained
by Doug O'Neill
Sham Stakes winner wasn't entered in the Robert B. Lewis and has only
breezed once since then, which suggests that the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at
Oaklawn on February 18th is a possible goal.
18. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek
Grabbed a quarter in the Holy Bull and raced greenly
thereafter, so it's probably wise to forgive his distant defeat. Trainer Kenny
McPeek has a number of changes planned for his next start, including the
addition of blinkers. He also feels that a longer homestretch will help, so
don't be surprised if Frac Daddy shows up at Fair Grounds sometime this winter.
19. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by
Steve Asmussen
He's breezed twice since his maiden victory, most recently clocking
five-eighths in 1:03 on January 28th. I haven't heard anything in regards to
where he will run next, but being that he's based in Louisiana, the Risen Star
or the Southwest are probably on the radar.
20. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained
by D. Wayne Lukas
Oxbow's stablemate and fellow Derby prep race winner
breezed a half-mile in :48.80 on the last day of January at Oaklawn Park, a
very sharp work that was the second-fastest of the morning at that distance.
21. Tiz a Minister (Ministers Wild Cat - Tiz a Mistress, by Cee's Tizzy)
Trained by Paul Aguirre
I decided to extend this list to twenty-one horses again
in order to include this highly promising colt who rallied from absolutely out
of the clouds to win the California Breeders Champion Stakes at Santa Anita.
Dead-last early on, he unleashed a simply tremendous rally rounding the far
turn, gobbling up ground at an unprecedented rate to win in decisive fashion. I
personally hand-timed his last-half mile in about :47 2/5 seconds, with splits
of :11 2/5, :23 1/5, and :35 1/5. Maybe it was the result of the wet track, but
any horse that can rally like that deserves a great deal of respect!
*****
There are several other notable colts entered to race
this weekend, and big performances by any of them could launch them into my top
twenty, or even my top ten. Among the ones I'm looking forward to watching most
are Long River, who is entered in the Wither Stakes; Verrazano,
who will contest an allowance race at Gulfstream Park; Forty Tales, an
unbeaten Todd Pletcher-trained colt that is entered in the Hutcheson Stakes; Air
Squadron, who will attempt to break his maiden at Gulfstream on Saturday; Tiz
the Truth, who will be trying to do the same at Santa Anita; and Den's
Legacy, runner-up in the Sham and an entrant in the Robert B. Lewis.
On a side note, you may have noticed that both Power
Broker and Titletown Five have been removed from my top twenty. The
reason is that these colts have not turned in works this year, and they are
running out of time to get ready for the Derby. Should they return to the work
tab within the next week or two, I will probably add them back in.
-Keelerman
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Itsmyluckyday upsets Shanghai Bobby in Holy Bull Stakes
Itsmyluckyday wore down champion Shanghai Bobby to win the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, handing the previously undefeated colt the first defeat of his six-race career.
Ridden to victory by Elvis Trujillo, Itsmyluckyday got off to an excellent start at the beginning of the mile and a sixteenth race, and soon settled into third place as Shanghai Bobby and Clearly Now set moderately quick fractions of :23.34, :46.68, and 1:10.69 seconds. Frac Daddy, Fredericksburg, Tulira Castle, and Bern Identity were also flashing speed, while Dewey Square, Sr. Quisqueyano, and Joshua's Comprise were the early trailers.
Rounding the far turn, Itsmyluckyday advanced on the outside to challenge Shanghai Bobby for the lead, and the two colts hooked up in a stretch battle that quickly put them many lengths clear of the rest of the field. For a time, it appeared as though Shanghai Bobby might have enough left in the tank to hold off Itsmyluckyday, but the latter colt drew clear in the final sixteenth of a mile to win by two lengths. The final time of 1:41.81 was a new track record by nearly three-fifths of a second.
Clearly Now finished third, 11 1/2 lengths behind Shanghai Bobby. Joshua's Comprise, a 132.60-1 shot, rallied late to complete the superfecta. Bern Identity, Frac Daddy, Dewey Square, Sr. Quisqueyano, Tulira Castle, and Fredericksburg completed the order of finish.
The winner is a son of Lawyer Ron out of the Doneraile Court mare Viva La Slew. He is trained by Edward Plesa Jr. and is owned by Trilogy Stable and Laurie Plesa.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Elvis Trujillo, Itsmyluckyday got off to an excellent start at the beginning of the mile and a sixteenth race, and soon settled into third place as Shanghai Bobby and Clearly Now set moderately quick fractions of :23.34, :46.68, and 1:10.69 seconds. Frac Daddy, Fredericksburg, Tulira Castle, and Bern Identity were also flashing speed, while Dewey Square, Sr. Quisqueyano, and Joshua's Comprise were the early trailers.
Rounding the far turn, Itsmyluckyday advanced on the outside to challenge Shanghai Bobby for the lead, and the two colts hooked up in a stretch battle that quickly put them many lengths clear of the rest of the field. For a time, it appeared as though Shanghai Bobby might have enough left in the tank to hold off Itsmyluckyday, but the latter colt drew clear in the final sixteenth of a mile to win by two lengths. The final time of 1:41.81 was a new track record by nearly three-fifths of a second.
Clearly Now finished third, 11 1/2 lengths behind Shanghai Bobby. Joshua's Comprise, a 132.60-1 shot, rallied late to complete the superfecta. Bern Identity, Frac Daddy, Dewey Square, Sr. Quisqueyano, Tulira Castle, and Fredericksburg completed the order of finish.
The winner is a son of Lawyer Ron out of the Doneraile Court mare Viva La Slew. He is trained by Edward Plesa Jr. and is owned by Trilogy Stable and Laurie Plesa.
-Keelerman
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Triple Crown Countdown 1-26-13
In my opinion -- and in the opinion of many others as
well -- today's Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park is by far the
best Derby prep of the year thus far. Not only do you have the champion
two-year-old Shanghai Bobby making his three-year-old debut, you also
have such talented colts as Frac Daddy, Dewey Square, Itsmyluckyday,
and Bern Identity set to oppose him. So without further ado, let's take
a closer look!
Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles on the main track
Aside from all the talented horses in the race,
handicapping the Holy Bull is made difficult by two important factors: A; the
race starts right on the first turn, which results in horses drawn outside
getting hung very wide at the start of the race, and B; the race will conclude
at the sixteenth pole, leaving little time for the late runners to get their
runs uncorked.
Further confusing things is the speed-favoring nature of
Gulfstream's main track. Oftentimes, the early leaders will parade around the
racetrack without changing order, while the closers struggle to get involved.
Or at least, that's what typically happens. Yesterday,
however, horses were rallying on the outside all day long, while the
front-runners tired without excuse in the final furlongs. Whether that will be the
case again today is debatable, but it will be worth watching the early races on
the card to see how the track is playing.
If all these factors hold true in the Holy Bull, the
winner should be an off-the-pace runner -- not the deep closing kind, but one
that sits a few lengths off the lead -- that is drawn inside. The question is,
does such a horse exist?
Actually, there are two that I feel fit the bill. They
are Bern Identity and Frac Daddy. The latter colt is very lightly
raced -- he made just three starts last year -- but showed a great deal of grit
in finishing second to Uncaptured in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)
at the same 1 1/16th miles distance of today's race. Now, he's only had four
workouts since his return to training late last year, so it's possible that
he's not dead-fit for this race, but his versatility and tactical speed should
enable him to work out a great trip from post position two.
Bern Identity compiled an exceptional record as a two-year-old, winning the Sanford Stakes
(gr. II) and Jean Lafitte Stakes in addition to placing in the Hopeful Stakes
(gr. I) and Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III). He possesses enough tactical
speed to be involved early, as well as the tractability to settle a few lengths
off the pace and finish up with a strong run. This combination, along with the
fact that he has drawn post position four, should make him a serious contender
this afternoon. But, it's worth noting that he was beaten 4 1/2 lengths by
Shanghai Bobby in their only meeting, and it's hard to say if he's improved
enough to take down the champ.
Speaking of Shanghai Bobby, he is obviously going
to be a huge favorite this afternoon, and deservedly so. It seems as though
there is nothing he can't do -- he's unbeaten in five starts at 4-1/2 furlongs,
5-1/2 furlongs, 7 furlongs, 1 mile, and 1 1/16th miles. He ran a half-mile in
:45 2/5 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and still held off the closers to win. He
has turned in a number of strong workouts in preparation for this race. He has
drawn the rail, which eliminates any chances of him being hung wide on the
first turn. The only real concern is that he might break slowly and find
himself stuck in traffic, but given his speed, I don't think it will be an
issue.
Now, the horse whose form is trickiest to interpret is Itsmyluckyday.
There is no denying that he's a good colt -- his victory in the Gulfstream Park
Derby last time out was exceptional, and his victory in the Foolish Pleasure
Stakes at Calder last year was also quite strong. But there are a couple of
things that worry me. One is his post position drawn (#7), which could result
in Itsmyluckyday getting caught wide around the first turn. If he were a
closer, it wouldn't bother me so much, but being a rather speedy colt, I am
concerned that Itsmyluckyday may have to run very hard early to maintain his
position around the first turn, which could leave him with little left in the
tank for the homestretch.
Another concern is that his effort in the Gulfstream Park
Derby might have been too good. It was much better than any performance
he had turned in previously, which makes me wonder if he can repeat it today.
If he can, he might be the horse to beat. But this is a pretty big step up in
class, and running that huge again may be difficult.
Also returning from the Gulfstream Park Derby are Sr.
Quisqueyano and Joshua's Comprise, the second- and fourth-place
finishers. Both were soundly beaten that day, finishing 6 3/4 and 20 1/4
lengths behind Itsmyluckyday, respectively, and it's difficult to envision them
improving enough to challenge for the victory.
Moving onward, we come to Dewey Square, who has
been at the top of my Derby list ever since his third-place finish in the
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). What I liked about his performance that
day was the way he finished after getting hung wide on both turns. Furthermore,
he is bred to get better with age; he possesses enough tactical speed to stay
in touch with the leaders; he is trained by the newly-crowned Eclipse champion
trainer Dale Romans; and he turned in a spectacular five-furlong bullet work
six days ago. Dewey Square seems to be sitting on a top-notch performance, but
his post position (#6) and the short homestretch could make things tricky.
Nevertheless, I'm not really looking for a win from Dewey Square this afternoon
-- so long as he runs a nice race and finishes up well, he will retain his
position atop my Derby list.
Tulira Castle and Fredericksburg, the 1-2 finishers in an allowance optional
claiming race at Gulfstream in December, have both flashed talent during their
brief careers and warrant some respect, but both have drawn outside post
positions, making their already difficult task of winning the race even more
tricky. Nevertheless, they both look like nice enough colts, and decent
efforts today could propel them to better things further down the road.
Rounding out the field is Clearly Now, a Woodbine
shipper that was most recently third in the Display Stakes. The switch to dirt
could help his chances, and post position three should enable him to use his
early speed to its highest potential, so don't be surprised if he's right in
contention turning for home.
I really have no idea who to pick, as there are at least
four or five horses I think can win. Really, this is one of those races that's
more fun to watch than to handicap. But for the record, I like Shanghai
Bobby,
Frac Daddy, and Dewey
Square best, in just about any order.
Other Races of Note
While there are too many interesting races on the day's
agenda to discuss them all, here are a few of the highlights I'll be looking
forward to this afternoon:
Gulfstream Race 3 - Team Valor's Cerro caught my
eye after finishing a good third to Bradester and Gunderman in a recent
allowance race, and looks ready to roll in this similar spot.
Gulfstream Race 5 - Mountain Eagle looked great
breaking his maiden by 4 1/2 lengths at Gulfstream last month, and a repeat of
that effort should win this race. Orb, who broke his maiden nicely at Aqueduct in November, also looks like a serious contender.
Gulfstream Race 7 - Bold Dance broke his maiden
sharply on the turf last time out and should be even better stretching out
another sixteenth of a mile.
Santa Anita Race 7 - Sharp maiden winner Omega Star
will try to translate his brilliant turn-of-foot around two turns for the first
time in the California Breeders Champion Stakes. John Shirreffs-trainee looks
like a very good one.
Aqueduct Race 3 - Transparent ran well in defeat
to Todd Pletcher's Revolutionary in a recent maiden special weight, and looks
ready to graduate today.
-Keelerman
Friday, January 25, 2013
Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 1-25-13
1. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
He'll be getting a very stiff test on Saturday when he takes on Shanghai Bobby, Frac Daddy, and others in the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). I don't really expect him to win, although a victory would be nice. I just want to see him put in a good run and stay on strongly to the finish. It's early, and we don't want him peaking too soon!
2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He continues to train sharply at Palm Meadows, most recently going a half-mile in :49.93 on January 20th. He's pointing toward a start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd, so he appears to be right on track in terms of training.
3. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Exactly how well the juvenile champion has progressed since November will become clear on Saturday, when he makes his sophomore debut in the Holy Bull. The fact that he has drawn the rail is interesting -- he'll either have to go straight to the lead, which he can do, or take back and settle behind horses, which could give him valuable experience for a race like the Derby.
4. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He seems to be a bit behind in his training, and the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) on February 2nd is no longer the goal. As a result, I've chosen to drop him a notch until further notice.
5. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
His workout pattern has me a little bit concerned, for after breezing a half-mile on January 4th, it took him until January 20th to return to the work tab again. He's obviously a very capable runner, but I doubt we'll be seeing him run for a while yet.
6. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's still on track for a run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) toward the end of February, but after going a half-mile in a very easy :50.90 on January 20th -- his first work of the year -- it's clear that he is going to have to step up his training quickly, as it's probable that he'll only have four more works before then.
7. Mountain Eagle (Birdstone - Gulch Legacy, by Gulch) Trained by Nick Zito
He's entered to run in a nine-furlong allowance optional claiming race on Saturday at Gulfstream, which seems like an absolutely perfect spot for him to make his first start against winners. A strong field is entered to face him, so assuming he wins, expect him to move up on this list.
8. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Violence, he isn't very far along in his training thus far, as his half-mile breeze in :51.61 on January 20th implies. But Overanalyze has a bit more time to get ready for his three-year-old debut, as he is not expected to run until the Gotham Stakes (gr. II) on March 2nd.
9. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Forget the fact that he set a slow pace in the LeComte. Forget the fact that the final time wasn't all that impressive. What impressed me about Oxbow was the way he absolutely exploded in the homestretch after leading from the start. While all of his pursuers were weaving left and right, apparently exhausted, Oxbow was running straight as an arrow, and seemed to have something left in the tank. He'll get another major class test in the Risen Star Stakes next month, where he'll face Normandy Invasion and others, but at the moment, he looks up to the challenge.
10. Power Broker (Pulpit - Shop Again, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
He still hasn't returned to the work tab yet, which worries me a little bit, but with his three-year-old debut not expected to come until March, he has time to get ready.
11. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
I've heard a lot of talk about Titletown Five being off the Derby trail with an ankle chip, and perhaps that is the case. But Lukas has said that Titletown Five should be back to the races in late March, and while that wouldn't leave much time to get ready for the Derby, I think this colt is talented enough to warrant inclusion on my list until it's definite that he won't make the race.
12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Returned to the races in a big way last Saturday, holding his own against the impressive sprinter Majestic Hussar to finish second in a seven-furlong allowance race. While he didn't win, I thought it was a very strong performance for his first race since August, and he should only improve with additional time and distance.
13. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek
Drew post position two in the Holy Bull, which should suit his running style perfectly. I would like to see him break cleanly, settle just behind Shanghai Bobby during the early stages, and finish up with a good run to get a piece of the purse. Victory is secondary at this stage; he'll retain his ranking here as long as he puts in a respectable effort.
14. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's training up a storm at Santa Anita, most recently going five-eighths in a blazing :58.60 at Santa Anita on January 23rd. He is scheduled to make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) on February 2nd.
15. He's Had Enough (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Breezed six furlongs in company this morning with grade II winner Handsome Mike, clocking the distance in an exceptional 1:10.80. It’s hard to know what to do with him based on his inconsistent record, but he’s scheduled to make his seasonal debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, where he’ll have every chance to fire his best shot while returning to dirt.
16. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
Failed to draw a good post position (#7) in the Holy Bull, and will have to be sharp to avoid getting hung wide on the first turn. I've been having a hard time analyzing his Gulfstream Park Derby form, that is, determining whether it was a legitimate performance or a track bias-aided effort, so I'm looking forward to seeing how he fares on Saturday.
17. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Numerous options have been discussed for this colt, including a run in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn, followed by the Sunland Derby (gr. III) at Sunland Park. Other possibilities include the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) or San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita.
18. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen
His inclusion here is based more on pedigree than thus-far racing record, but his 7 1/2-length maiden triumph at Fair Grounds on January 12th was a major step in the right direction, slow time and drifting stretch run aside.
19. Omega Star (Candy Ride - Pride of Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus) Trained by John Shirreffs
He's entered in the California Breeders Champion Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita, where he will stretch around two turns for the first time. Although the race is restricted to California-breds, there are some pretty good colts in the race, and they should provide Omega Star a good, stiff challenge.
20. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
There are at least a half-dozen horses that I could have included in this twentieth spot, but I decided to include Revolutionary because -- quite frankly -- his maiden victory at Aqueduct in December was about as impressive a maiden victory as you'll ever see. Coming off of three consecutive in-the-money efforts against other good maidens, Revolutionary finally seemed to put it all together in his fourth start, rattling off quarter-mile fractions of :23.85, :23.60, :24.28, and :24.79 to win by 8 1/2 lengths. For his effort, he received a massive Beyer speed figure of 102, the highest of 2012 for a two-year-old colt.
21. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
I decided to extend this week’s list to 21 in order to include this half-brother to 2012 Florida Derby (gr. I) winner Take Charge Indy. He showed a lot of grit in overcoming a difficult trip to win the Smarty Jones Stakes by a neck. Getting hung six-wide on the first turn would eliminate many horses from contention, but Will Take Charge overcame it in good fashion and simply wouldn't give in down the stretch. He's still a bit on the slow side from a speed-figure perspective, but I think there's plenty of improvement still to come.
*****
You may have noticed that Uncaptured is no longer on my list. This is most likely a temporary change -- I have removed him because he has been off the work tab with a foot bruise that set back his schedule. I’m sure he’ll be back in serious training before too long, but until he gets back on the work tab, I've decided to drop him from my list.
-Keelerman
He'll be getting a very stiff test on Saturday when he takes on Shanghai Bobby, Frac Daddy, and others in the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). I don't really expect him to win, although a victory would be nice. I just want to see him put in a good run and stay on strongly to the finish. It's early, and we don't want him peaking too soon!
2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He continues to train sharply at Palm Meadows, most recently going a half-mile in :49.93 on January 20th. He's pointing toward a start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd, so he appears to be right on track in terms of training.
3. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Exactly how well the juvenile champion has progressed since November will become clear on Saturday, when he makes his sophomore debut in the Holy Bull. The fact that he has drawn the rail is interesting -- he'll either have to go straight to the lead, which he can do, or take back and settle behind horses, which could give him valuable experience for a race like the Derby.
4. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He seems to be a bit behind in his training, and the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) on February 2nd is no longer the goal. As a result, I've chosen to drop him a notch until further notice.
5. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
His workout pattern has me a little bit concerned, for after breezing a half-mile on January 4th, it took him until January 20th to return to the work tab again. He's obviously a very capable runner, but I doubt we'll be seeing him run for a while yet.
6. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's still on track for a run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) toward the end of February, but after going a half-mile in a very easy :50.90 on January 20th -- his first work of the year -- it's clear that he is going to have to step up his training quickly, as it's probable that he'll only have four more works before then.
7. Mountain Eagle (Birdstone - Gulch Legacy, by Gulch) Trained by Nick Zito
He's entered to run in a nine-furlong allowance optional claiming race on Saturday at Gulfstream, which seems like an absolutely perfect spot for him to make his first start against winners. A strong field is entered to face him, so assuming he wins, expect him to move up on this list.
8. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Violence, he isn't very far along in his training thus far, as his half-mile breeze in :51.61 on January 20th implies. But Overanalyze has a bit more time to get ready for his three-year-old debut, as he is not expected to run until the Gotham Stakes (gr. II) on March 2nd.
9. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Forget the fact that he set a slow pace in the LeComte. Forget the fact that the final time wasn't all that impressive. What impressed me about Oxbow was the way he absolutely exploded in the homestretch after leading from the start. While all of his pursuers were weaving left and right, apparently exhausted, Oxbow was running straight as an arrow, and seemed to have something left in the tank. He'll get another major class test in the Risen Star Stakes next month, where he'll face Normandy Invasion and others, but at the moment, he looks up to the challenge.
10. Power Broker (Pulpit - Shop Again, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
He still hasn't returned to the work tab yet, which worries me a little bit, but with his three-year-old debut not expected to come until March, he has time to get ready.
11. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
I've heard a lot of talk about Titletown Five being off the Derby trail with an ankle chip, and perhaps that is the case. But Lukas has said that Titletown Five should be back to the races in late March, and while that wouldn't leave much time to get ready for the Derby, I think this colt is talented enough to warrant inclusion on my list until it's definite that he won't make the race.
12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Returned to the races in a big way last Saturday, holding his own against the impressive sprinter Majestic Hussar to finish second in a seven-furlong allowance race. While he didn't win, I thought it was a very strong performance for his first race since August, and he should only improve with additional time and distance.
13. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek
Drew post position two in the Holy Bull, which should suit his running style perfectly. I would like to see him break cleanly, settle just behind Shanghai Bobby during the early stages, and finish up with a good run to get a piece of the purse. Victory is secondary at this stage; he'll retain his ranking here as long as he puts in a respectable effort.
14. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's training up a storm at Santa Anita, most recently going five-eighths in a blazing :58.60 at Santa Anita on January 23rd. He is scheduled to make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) on February 2nd.
15. He's Had Enough (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Breezed six furlongs in company this morning with grade II winner Handsome Mike, clocking the distance in an exceptional 1:10.80. It’s hard to know what to do with him based on his inconsistent record, but he’s scheduled to make his seasonal debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, where he’ll have every chance to fire his best shot while returning to dirt.
16. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
Failed to draw a good post position (#7) in the Holy Bull, and will have to be sharp to avoid getting hung wide on the first turn. I've been having a hard time analyzing his Gulfstream Park Derby form, that is, determining whether it was a legitimate performance or a track bias-aided effort, so I'm looking forward to seeing how he fares on Saturday.
17. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Numerous options have been discussed for this colt, including a run in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn, followed by the Sunland Derby (gr. III) at Sunland Park. Other possibilities include the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) or San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita.
18. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen
His inclusion here is based more on pedigree than thus-far racing record, but his 7 1/2-length maiden triumph at Fair Grounds on January 12th was a major step in the right direction, slow time and drifting stretch run aside.
19. Omega Star (Candy Ride - Pride of Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus) Trained by John Shirreffs
He's entered in the California Breeders Champion Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita, where he will stretch around two turns for the first time. Although the race is restricted to California-breds, there are some pretty good colts in the race, and they should provide Omega Star a good, stiff challenge.
20. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
There are at least a half-dozen horses that I could have included in this twentieth spot, but I decided to include Revolutionary because -- quite frankly -- his maiden victory at Aqueduct in December was about as impressive a maiden victory as you'll ever see. Coming off of three consecutive in-the-money efforts against other good maidens, Revolutionary finally seemed to put it all together in his fourth start, rattling off quarter-mile fractions of :23.85, :23.60, :24.28, and :24.79 to win by 8 1/2 lengths. For his effort, he received a massive Beyer speed figure of 102, the highest of 2012 for a two-year-old colt.
21. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
I decided to extend this week’s list to 21 in order to include this half-brother to 2012 Florida Derby (gr. I) winner Take Charge Indy. He showed a lot of grit in overcoming a difficult trip to win the Smarty Jones Stakes by a neck. Getting hung six-wide on the first turn would eliminate many horses from contention, but Will Take Charge overcame it in good fashion and simply wouldn't give in down the stretch. He's still a bit on the slow side from a speed-figure perspective, but I think there's plenty of improvement still to come.
*****
You may have noticed that Uncaptured is no longer on my list. This is most likely a temporary change -- I have removed him because he has been off the work tab with a foot bruise that set back his schedule. I’m sure he’ll be back in serious training before too long, but until he gets back on the work tab, I've decided to drop him from my list.
-Keelerman
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Holy Bull Stakes Entries: Shanghai Bobby draws rail in 3yo debut
Recently crowned Eclipse champion two-year-old colt Shanghai Bobby has drawn the rail in the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III), the first start of his sophomore campaign.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Shanghai Bobby was unbeaten in five starts as a juvenile, culminating with a tenacious victory in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), which secured him the honor as champion of the division. The Holy Bull, an 8.5-furlong race that will be held on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, is the first of two planned prep races that will ready Shanghai Bobby for a run in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) on the first Saturday in May.
Lined up to face Shanghai Bobby in this deep renewal of the Holy Bull include horses like Frac Daddy and Dewey Square, the second- and third-place finishers in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II); Bern Identity, winner of the Sanford Stakes (gr. II) and runner-up in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III); Itsmyluckyday, dominate winner of the Gulfstream Park Derby; and Tulira Castle, sharp winner of an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream on December 8th.
Post Positions:
1 Shanghai Bobby
2 Frac Daddy
3 Clearly Now
4 Bern Identity
5 Sr. Quisqueyano
6 Dewey Square
7 Itsmyluckyday
8 Tulira Castle
9 Fredericksburg
10 Joshua's Comprise
-Keelerman
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Shanghai Bobby was unbeaten in five starts as a juvenile, culminating with a tenacious victory in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), which secured him the honor as champion of the division. The Holy Bull, an 8.5-furlong race that will be held on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, is the first of two planned prep races that will ready Shanghai Bobby for a run in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) on the first Saturday in May.
Lined up to face Shanghai Bobby in this deep renewal of the Holy Bull include horses like Frac Daddy and Dewey Square, the second- and third-place finishers in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II); Bern Identity, winner of the Sanford Stakes (gr. II) and runner-up in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III); Itsmyluckyday, dominate winner of the Gulfstream Park Derby; and Tulira Castle, sharp winner of an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream on December 8th.
Post Positions:
1 Shanghai Bobby
2 Frac Daddy
3 Clearly Now
4 Bern Identity
5 Sr. Quisqueyano
6 Dewey Square
7 Itsmyluckyday
8 Tulira Castle
9 Fredericksburg
10 Joshua's Comprise
-Keelerman
Friday, January 11, 2013
Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 1-11-13
1. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
He has been training steadily in Florida, most recently breezing five-eighths in 1:01.42 on Saturday. Next-race plans have not been announced, but at the rate he's going, don't be surprised if he turns up in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on January 26th.
2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
Just recently had his first work back since his runner-up effort in the Remsen, breezing a half-mile at Palm Meadows in a bullet :48.01. Like Dewey Square, his next-race plans are still undetermined.
3. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
On January 1st, he breezed for the first time since the Breeders' Cup, going an easy three-eighths in :39.22. The plans are to bring him back in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream on February 2nd.
4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Likely champion has been on the work tab since mid-December, most recently going five furlongs in a sharp 1:00.04. First up on the agenda is the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on January 26th.
5. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's back in training following a mild illness, having breezed a half-mile twice since the end of last year. Hard to say where this well-bred colt will end up running, but don't be surprised to see him back sometime in February -- perhaps even in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II).
6. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He hasn't turned in a workout since the CashCall Futurity, but he should be back to serious training before too long. The Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd is scheduled to be his first race of the season.
7. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
He hasn't breezed in a couple of months, which had me worried there for a while, but Lukas told DRF.com that the colt will be ready to run in March, so for the moment, Titletown Five will stay here. His maiden victory on October 28th looks even better since Bradester -- who finished nine lengths behind Titletown Five -- has since one two straight, including a nice allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream on New Year's Day.
8. Mountain Eagle (Birdstone - Gulch Legacy, by Gulch) Trained by Nick Zito
In my opinion, this is the colt that could give Zito his first Derby victory since 1994. A beautifully bred son of Birdstone, Mountain Eagle broke his maiden on December 8th at Gulfstream Park by 4 1/2 impressive lengths, stopping the clock for a mile in 1:35.965 seconds. But perhaps the most impressive part of his victory was the final quarter mile of :24.41 seconds, this coming off the heels of a third quarter in :24.51. In my opinion, that is a sign of exceptional stamina.
9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
I'm having trouble determining where to rank this colt, partly because his record is a bit inconsistent. He broke his maiden impressively first time out. Then he finished a poor fourth in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I). Then he was a spectacular winner of the Futurity Stakes (gr. II). Then he was beaten eight lengths in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III). Most recently, he dug deep to win the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) with one of the highest Beyer speed figures earned by a two-year-old last year. We'll learn more about him in the Gotham Stakes (gr. II) on March 2nd, his anticipated three-year-old debut.
10. Power Broker (Pulpit - Shop Again, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
Although on the surface his record doesn't look all that great, this colt -- in my opinion -- has more talent than most people give him credit for. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he was very wide on boths turns while trying to close over a speed-favoring track, yet was still able to draw within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead at the eighth pole before understandably flattening out and finishing fifth, beaten five lengths. And of course, his 6 1/2-length triumph in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) was about as impressive a performance as you could hope for. He's not expected to run again until March, but when he returns, watch out.
11. Uncaptured (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) Trained by Mark Casse
This is another colt that I'm not quite sure what to do with. His two-year-old season was spectacular -- he won six of seven starts, including the Kentucky Jockey Club (gr. II) and Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) -- but at the same time, his performances on the track leave me questioning his ability to traverse ten furlongs on the first Saturday in May. His pedigree doesn't provide a conclusive answer, as it seems to suggest that a mile and a quarter is within Uncaptured's reach without being overly confident in itself. Furthermore, he's being dealing with a foot bruise that will cause him to miss the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), originally scheduled to mark his three-year-old debut. Like Overanalyze, we'll surely learn more further down the road.
12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Well-regarded son of Curlin broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga before going to the sidelines with sore shins. He returned to the work tab in December and has since breezed five times, most recently going five-eighths in 1:00.04 on January 6th. His return is expected to come in an as-of-yet undetermined allowance race.
13. He's Had Enough (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Looked excellent finishing second by a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but was subsequently beaten nine lengths when fifth in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). His overall record is rather confusing -- in the morning, he trains like a superhorse, and he ran terrific in his debut, but often runs poorly without any excuse. However, it is worth noting that the Breeders' Cup marked his only start on dirt, so don't be surprised if he rounds back into form upon returning to that surface.
14. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek
Showed a great deal of talent when breaking his maiden by 9 3/4 lengths and a great deal of grit finishing second by a neck to Uncaptured in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). From a pedigree perspective, ten furlongs may be a bit of a reach, but it's certainly not out of the question.
15. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
Highly promising debut winner missed the Sham Stakes (gr. III) after being slightly off just prior to a key workout, but tests revealed no injuries, and he breezed five furlongs in a sharp 1:00.40 on January 7th.
16. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Showed a new dimension in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), rating comfortably in second before rallying for a 1 1/2-length triumph. From a visual perspective, it was a terrific race -- he beat a couple of nice colts in Den's Legacy and Manando, with the rest fifteen lengths behind. However, the fractions tell a different story -- the final eighth of a mile was run in a very slow :13.66 seconds, despite a fairly moderate early pace. But regardless, this was a major step in the right direction for Goldencents.
17. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
While his victory in the Gulfstream Park Derby may have been aided by a track-bias, Itsmyluckyday was nevertheless highly impressive in winning by 6 3/4 lengths. Mildly concerning was the way that he drifted out coming off the turn, but he seemed to straighten out better once in the stretch and was certainly pouring on speed late. That he closed his final eighth in :12.70, despite running the opening three-quarters in 1:09.11, was very good indeed.
18. Omega Star (Candy Ride - Pride of Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus) Trained by John Shirreffs
After finishing a sharp second in his debut for trainer James Jerken, this well-bred colt was transferred to the barn of John Shirreffs and promptly broke his maiden in dominating fashion at Santa Anita on the final day of 2012. The race was a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight for California-breds, and Omega Star was the heavy favorite. With Julien Leparoux aboard, Omega Star settled into seventh early on while racing on the fence, shifted to the outside turning for home, and finished up strongly (6.17-second final sixteenth) to win by three dominating lengths. By Candy Ride out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare, he should be able to stretch out in distance just fine.
19. Maleeh (Indian Charlie - Gold Mover, by Gold Fever) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Although he didn't race as a two-year-old, this promising son of Indian Charlie made quite the debut on January 6th, rallying for victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct. Although the time of 1:10.84 seconds was impressive, it was the way Maleeh did it that impressed me. After getting off to a beautiful start and briefly attempting to challenge for the early lead, Maleeh was allowed to settle back in fourth place as the field moved down the backstretch. He made a nice, smooth run around the turn to reach contention entering the homestretch, but appeared beaten when the free-running leader Bellamy Storm scorched the fifth furlong in :11.51 seconds to maintain a two-length advantage. Nevertheless, Maleeh closed in strongly under a hand ride, edging Bellamy Storm in the final strides while running his own final eighth in about :11.74 seconds. He may not have the strongest of pedigrees, but there's no denying his talent.
20. Fury Kapcori (Tiznow - Gin Running, by Go for Gin) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
There were plenty of horses I could have included in this twentieth and final spot, but this colt gets the call thanks to his game second in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). I find his pedigree intriguing, being a son of Tiznow out of a Go for Gin mare. Go for Gin, of course, won the 1994 Kentucky Derby in front-running fashion and went on to be second in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Going further back, he is inbred 4S X 5D to In Reality, through that stallion's son Relaunch and his daughter Real Crafty Lady, who is the dam of Crafty Prospector.
****
Unfortunately, a number of promising colts have fallen off the Derby trail this week due to injury. Perhaps the most prominent was Hightail, winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, who suffered a sesamoid injury in training and was retired.
Also dropping off the trail were Gulfport, winner of two straight races in impressive fashion, and Archwarrior, a well-regarded Saratoga maiden winner that was recently turned out for a break after failing to train up to par this winter.
-Keelerman
He has been training steadily in Florida, most recently breezing five-eighths in 1:01.42 on Saturday. Next-race plans have not been announced, but at the rate he's going, don't be surprised if he turns up in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on January 26th.
2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
Just recently had his first work back since his runner-up effort in the Remsen, breezing a half-mile at Palm Meadows in a bullet :48.01. Like Dewey Square, his next-race plans are still undetermined.
3. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
On January 1st, he breezed for the first time since the Breeders' Cup, going an easy three-eighths in :39.22. The plans are to bring him back in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream on February 2nd.
4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Likely champion has been on the work tab since mid-December, most recently going five furlongs in a sharp 1:00.04. First up on the agenda is the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on January 26th.
5. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's back in training following a mild illness, having breezed a half-mile twice since the end of last year. Hard to say where this well-bred colt will end up running, but don't be surprised to see him back sometime in February -- perhaps even in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II).
6. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He hasn't turned in a workout since the CashCall Futurity, but he should be back to serious training before too long. The Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd is scheduled to be his first race of the season.
7. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
He hasn't breezed in a couple of months, which had me worried there for a while, but Lukas told DRF.com that the colt will be ready to run in March, so for the moment, Titletown Five will stay here. His maiden victory on October 28th looks even better since Bradester -- who finished nine lengths behind Titletown Five -- has since one two straight, including a nice allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream on New Year's Day.
8. Mountain Eagle (Birdstone - Gulch Legacy, by Gulch) Trained by Nick Zito
In my opinion, this is the colt that could give Zito his first Derby victory since 1994. A beautifully bred son of Birdstone, Mountain Eagle broke his maiden on December 8th at Gulfstream Park by 4 1/2 impressive lengths, stopping the clock for a mile in 1:35.965 seconds. But perhaps the most impressive part of his victory was the final quarter mile of :24.41 seconds, this coming off the heels of a third quarter in :24.51. In my opinion, that is a sign of exceptional stamina.
9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
I'm having trouble determining where to rank this colt, partly because his record is a bit inconsistent. He broke his maiden impressively first time out. Then he finished a poor fourth in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I). Then he was a spectacular winner of the Futurity Stakes (gr. II). Then he was beaten eight lengths in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III). Most recently, he dug deep to win the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) with one of the highest Beyer speed figures earned by a two-year-old last year. We'll learn more about him in the Gotham Stakes (gr. II) on March 2nd, his anticipated three-year-old debut.
10. Power Broker (Pulpit - Shop Again, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
Although on the surface his record doesn't look all that great, this colt -- in my opinion -- has more talent than most people give him credit for. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he was very wide on boths turns while trying to close over a speed-favoring track, yet was still able to draw within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead at the eighth pole before understandably flattening out and finishing fifth, beaten five lengths. And of course, his 6 1/2-length triumph in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) was about as impressive a performance as you could hope for. He's not expected to run again until March, but when he returns, watch out.
11. Uncaptured (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) Trained by Mark Casse
This is another colt that I'm not quite sure what to do with. His two-year-old season was spectacular -- he won six of seven starts, including the Kentucky Jockey Club (gr. II) and Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) -- but at the same time, his performances on the track leave me questioning his ability to traverse ten furlongs on the first Saturday in May. His pedigree doesn't provide a conclusive answer, as it seems to suggest that a mile and a quarter is within Uncaptured's reach without being overly confident in itself. Furthermore, he's being dealing with a foot bruise that will cause him to miss the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), originally scheduled to mark his three-year-old debut. Like Overanalyze, we'll surely learn more further down the road.
12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Well-regarded son of Curlin broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga before going to the sidelines with sore shins. He returned to the work tab in December and has since breezed five times, most recently going five-eighths in 1:00.04 on January 6th. His return is expected to come in an as-of-yet undetermined allowance race.
13. He's Had Enough (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Looked excellent finishing second by a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but was subsequently beaten nine lengths when fifth in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). His overall record is rather confusing -- in the morning, he trains like a superhorse, and he ran terrific in his debut, but often runs poorly without any excuse. However, it is worth noting that the Breeders' Cup marked his only start on dirt, so don't be surprised if he rounds back into form upon returning to that surface.
14. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek
Showed a great deal of talent when breaking his maiden by 9 3/4 lengths and a great deal of grit finishing second by a neck to Uncaptured in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). From a pedigree perspective, ten furlongs may be a bit of a reach, but it's certainly not out of the question.
15. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
Highly promising debut winner missed the Sham Stakes (gr. III) after being slightly off just prior to a key workout, but tests revealed no injuries, and he breezed five furlongs in a sharp 1:00.40 on January 7th.
16. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Showed a new dimension in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), rating comfortably in second before rallying for a 1 1/2-length triumph. From a visual perspective, it was a terrific race -- he beat a couple of nice colts in Den's Legacy and Manando, with the rest fifteen lengths behind. However, the fractions tell a different story -- the final eighth of a mile was run in a very slow :13.66 seconds, despite a fairly moderate early pace. But regardless, this was a major step in the right direction for Goldencents.
17. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
While his victory in the Gulfstream Park Derby may have been aided by a track-bias, Itsmyluckyday was nevertheless highly impressive in winning by 6 3/4 lengths. Mildly concerning was the way that he drifted out coming off the turn, but he seemed to straighten out better once in the stretch and was certainly pouring on speed late. That he closed his final eighth in :12.70, despite running the opening three-quarters in 1:09.11, was very good indeed.
18. Omega Star (Candy Ride - Pride of Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus) Trained by John Shirreffs
After finishing a sharp second in his debut for trainer James Jerken, this well-bred colt was transferred to the barn of John Shirreffs and promptly broke his maiden in dominating fashion at Santa Anita on the final day of 2012. The race was a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight for California-breds, and Omega Star was the heavy favorite. With Julien Leparoux aboard, Omega Star settled into seventh early on while racing on the fence, shifted to the outside turning for home, and finished up strongly (6.17-second final sixteenth) to win by three dominating lengths. By Candy Ride out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare, he should be able to stretch out in distance just fine.
19. Maleeh (Indian Charlie - Gold Mover, by Gold Fever) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Although he didn't race as a two-year-old, this promising son of Indian Charlie made quite the debut on January 6th, rallying for victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct. Although the time of 1:10.84 seconds was impressive, it was the way Maleeh did it that impressed me. After getting off to a beautiful start and briefly attempting to challenge for the early lead, Maleeh was allowed to settle back in fourth place as the field moved down the backstretch. He made a nice, smooth run around the turn to reach contention entering the homestretch, but appeared beaten when the free-running leader Bellamy Storm scorched the fifth furlong in :11.51 seconds to maintain a two-length advantage. Nevertheless, Maleeh closed in strongly under a hand ride, edging Bellamy Storm in the final strides while running his own final eighth in about :11.74 seconds. He may not have the strongest of pedigrees, but there's no denying his talent.
20. Fury Kapcori (Tiznow - Gin Running, by Go for Gin) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
There were plenty of horses I could have included in this twentieth and final spot, but this colt gets the call thanks to his game second in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). I find his pedigree intriguing, being a son of Tiznow out of a Go for Gin mare. Go for Gin, of course, won the 1994 Kentucky Derby in front-running fashion and went on to be second in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Going further back, he is inbred 4S X 5D to In Reality, through that stallion's son Relaunch and his daughter Real Crafty Lady, who is the dam of Crafty Prospector.
****
Unfortunately, a number of promising colts have fallen off the Derby trail this week due to injury. Perhaps the most prominent was Hightail, winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, who suffered a sesamoid injury in training and was retired.
Also dropping off the trail were Gulfport, winner of two straight races in impressive fashion, and Archwarrior, a well-regarded Saratoga maiden winner that was recently turned out for a break after failing to train up to par this winter.
-Keelerman
Saturday, January 05, 2013
Frac Daddy, Dewey Square turn in workouts
Frac Daddy and Dewey Square, the second- and third-place finishers in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last November, both breezed five-eighths of a mile this morning at Gulfstream Park in preparation for their respective seasonal debuts.
Dewey Square, a son of Bernardini, clocked the slightly faster time, getting the distance in 1:01.42 seconds. Trained by Dale Romans, no definite next-race plans have been announced for Dewey Square at this point, although the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at the end of this month is an option.
Frac Daddy recorded a time of 1:01.63. A son of Scat Daddy, the Kenny McPeek-trainee is pointing toward a start in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) on February 23rd, but may run somewhere before then.
The long-range goal for both colts is, of course, the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) on May 4th at Churchill Downs.
-Keelerman
Dewey Square, a son of Bernardini, clocked the slightly faster time, getting the distance in 1:01.42 seconds. Trained by Dale Romans, no definite next-race plans have been announced for Dewey Square at this point, although the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at the end of this month is an option.
Frac Daddy recorded a time of 1:01.63. A son of Scat Daddy, the Kenny McPeek-trainee is pointing toward a start in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) on February 23rd, but may run somewhere before then.
The long-range goal for both colts is, of course, the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) on May 4th at Churchill Downs.
-Keelerman
Friday, December 28, 2012
Keelerman's Derby Top Ten 12-28-12
1. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
I was very impressed by his effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. After being hung wide on both turns, he appeared to be on his way to a distant defeat at the top of the stretch. However, he seemed to find another gear when challenged by Tesseron and finished very well in the final eighth of a mile, winning his personal duel with Tesseron and closing 2 1/2 lengths on the winner. Coming off of two very easy victories, I was pleased to see him dig deep when it mattered and give it his all.
2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He made a simply tremendous run around the final turn of the Remsen Stakes, and while he did flatten out just a bit in deep stretch to be beaten a nose, I think that he has the potential to keep improving with leaps and bounds. Also take note of the fact that the final time in the Remsen -- 1:50.13 -- was a full two seconds faster than Unlimited Budget ran in winning the Demoiselle Stakes one race earlier.
3. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
In my opinion, Capo Bastone's efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the FrontRunner Stakes were two of the finest performances turned in by a two-year-old this year. In the FrontRunner, he dropped back to last over a very speed-favoring track, yet still rallied to be beaten just a half-length for second. In the Juvenile, he again trailed the field over a speed-favoring surface, yet still rallied to loom menacingly in the stretch before flattening out a bit to finish third. It was later discovered that he had bled. He has since been transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher and is currently training in Florida.
4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
You can't deny that Shanghai Bobby has talent. He's unbeaten in five starts, he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he won the Champagne, he won the Hopeful . . . you don't sweep that trio if you lack talent. However, speed-favoring tracks seemed to help his chances in both the Juvenile and the Champagne, and he doesn't have the strongest mile-and-a-quarter pedigree.
5. Gulfport (Unbridled's Song - Dream Supreme, by Seeking the Gold) Trained by Dale Romans
This guy has flashed talent since his first start, but really put it all together two starts ago, romping to victory in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He backed up that effort with an impressive triumph in a one-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs, which he won by 2 3/4 lengths in the quick time of 1:35.93. It appears as though the sky is the limit for this talented colt.
6. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's only made one start, but it was a good one. In a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Betfair Hollywood Park, War Academy settled back into third while racing three wide, then finished up strongly to win by a commanding 1 3/4 lengths. His final time of 1:17.66 wasn't anything stellar, but this colt is not bred to be a sprinter. He is bred top-and-bottom to be a stayer -- he's a son of Giant's Causeway out of an A.P. Indy mare.
7. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It took him a couple of tries, but Violence finally seems to be getting this racing thing figured out. After running greenly to victory in both a maiden special weight and the Nashua Stakes (gr. II), he put it all together in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), racing along the rail for much of the race before splitting horses in the stretch and drawing off late to win by 1 1/4 lengths. He looks like a good one.
8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
This colt's career has been an interesting one. After losing his first three starts -- while competing against horses like Gulfport, Violence, and Maybe So -- he broke through in terrific fashion last time out, winning a seven-furlong allowance race at Churchill Downs by nine lengths while stopping the clock in 1:23.84. The runner-up, Bradester, was in turn ten lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and has since returned to break his own maiden in impressive fashion.
9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
This fine colt showed a tremendous deal of grit in the Remsen Stakes, digging in when challenged by Normandy Invasion in the homestretch to turn certain defeat into victory. For his effort, he earned a Beyer speed figure of 99, one of the highest of the year for a two-year-old colt. The only reason I rank him so low is because he seems to be more of a grinder type, and doesn't have the same turn-of-foot as Normandy Invasion.
10. Long River (A.P. Indy - Round Pond, by Awesome Again) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Beautifully-bred Darley colt lost his first two starts -- albeit against some very good horses -- before breaking through with a three-quarter length triumph going a mile and seventy yards at Aqueduct in rather quick time. He is currently scheduled to contest the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct on January 5th, where he will get an opportunity to prove himself as an elite Derby contender.
-Keelerman
I was very impressed by his effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. After being hung wide on both turns, he appeared to be on his way to a distant defeat at the top of the stretch. However, he seemed to find another gear when challenged by Tesseron and finished very well in the final eighth of a mile, winning his personal duel with Tesseron and closing 2 1/2 lengths on the winner. Coming off of two very easy victories, I was pleased to see him dig deep when it mattered and give it his all.
2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He made a simply tremendous run around the final turn of the Remsen Stakes, and while he did flatten out just a bit in deep stretch to be beaten a nose, I think that he has the potential to keep improving with leaps and bounds. Also take note of the fact that the final time in the Remsen -- 1:50.13 -- was a full two seconds faster than Unlimited Budget ran in winning the Demoiselle Stakes one race earlier.
3. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
In my opinion, Capo Bastone's efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the FrontRunner Stakes were two of the finest performances turned in by a two-year-old this year. In the FrontRunner, he dropped back to last over a very speed-favoring track, yet still rallied to be beaten just a half-length for second. In the Juvenile, he again trailed the field over a speed-favoring surface, yet still rallied to loom menacingly in the stretch before flattening out a bit to finish third. It was later discovered that he had bled. He has since been transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher and is currently training in Florida.
4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
You can't deny that Shanghai Bobby has talent. He's unbeaten in five starts, he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he won the Champagne, he won the Hopeful . . . you don't sweep that trio if you lack talent. However, speed-favoring tracks seemed to help his chances in both the Juvenile and the Champagne, and he doesn't have the strongest mile-and-a-quarter pedigree.
5. Gulfport (Unbridled's Song - Dream Supreme, by Seeking the Gold) Trained by Dale Romans
This guy has flashed talent since his first start, but really put it all together two starts ago, romping to victory in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He backed up that effort with an impressive triumph in a one-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs, which he won by 2 3/4 lengths in the quick time of 1:35.93. It appears as though the sky is the limit for this talented colt.
6. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's only made one start, but it was a good one. In a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Betfair Hollywood Park, War Academy settled back into third while racing three wide, then finished up strongly to win by a commanding 1 3/4 lengths. His final time of 1:17.66 wasn't anything stellar, but this colt is not bred to be a sprinter. He is bred top-and-bottom to be a stayer -- he's a son of Giant's Causeway out of an A.P. Indy mare.
7. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It took him a couple of tries, but Violence finally seems to be getting this racing thing figured out. After running greenly to victory in both a maiden special weight and the Nashua Stakes (gr. II), he put it all together in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), racing along the rail for much of the race before splitting horses in the stretch and drawing off late to win by 1 1/4 lengths. He looks like a good one.
8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
This colt's career has been an interesting one. After losing his first three starts -- while competing against horses like Gulfport, Violence, and Maybe So -- he broke through in terrific fashion last time out, winning a seven-furlong allowance race at Churchill Downs by nine lengths while stopping the clock in 1:23.84. The runner-up, Bradester, was in turn ten lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and has since returned to break his own maiden in impressive fashion.
9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
This fine colt showed a tremendous deal of grit in the Remsen Stakes, digging in when challenged by Normandy Invasion in the homestretch to turn certain defeat into victory. For his effort, he earned a Beyer speed figure of 99, one of the highest of the year for a two-year-old colt. The only reason I rank him so low is because he seems to be more of a grinder type, and doesn't have the same turn-of-foot as Normandy Invasion.
10. Long River (A.P. Indy - Round Pond, by Awesome Again) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Beautifully-bred Darley colt lost his first two starts -- albeit against some very good horses -- before breaking through with a three-quarter length triumph going a mile and seventy yards at Aqueduct in rather quick time. He is currently scheduled to contest the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct on January 5th, where he will get an opportunity to prove himself as an elite Derby contender.
-Keelerman
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Uncaptured digs deep in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
Favored Uncaptured held off a prolonged challenge from Frac Daddy to win the $150,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) on November 24th at Churchill Downs by a neck.
Ridden to victory by Miguel Mena, Uncaptured got off to a quick start from gate four and soon settled into second place as Track Rocker led the way through fractions of :24.37 and :49.16. Frac Daddy and Dewey Square were also close the pace, while Lew and Mike, Joha, Positively, Indiano Jones, Will Take Charge, Tesseron, Java's War, Fear the Kitten, and Silver Tongued were the trailers.
Rounding the turn Uncaptured and Frac Daddy advanced together to take command of the lead from Track Rocker, and following three-quarters of a mile in 1:13.91, the pair turned for home with virtually nothing between them. Passing the eighth pole Frac Daddy had the narrowest of advantages, with the rest of the field 3 1/2 lengths behind them, but as the wire neared, Uncaptured reclaimed the lead and held it to the wire to win by a neck. The final time for a mile and a sixteenth was 1:44.97.
Dewey Square rallied fast in the final furlong to finish third, 1 1/2 lengths behind Uncaptured. Tesseron was another three-quarters of a length back in fourth, while Fear the Kitten, Java's War, Positively, Track Rocker, Joha, Silver Tongued, Indiano Jones, Lew and Mike, and Will Take Charge completed the order of finish.
The winner is trained by Mark Casse and owned by John Oxley.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Miguel Mena, Uncaptured got off to a quick start from gate four and soon settled into second place as Track Rocker led the way through fractions of :24.37 and :49.16. Frac Daddy and Dewey Square were also close the pace, while Lew and Mike, Joha, Positively, Indiano Jones, Will Take Charge, Tesseron, Java's War, Fear the Kitten, and Silver Tongued were the trailers.
Rounding the turn Uncaptured and Frac Daddy advanced together to take command of the lead from Track Rocker, and following three-quarters of a mile in 1:13.91, the pair turned for home with virtually nothing between them. Passing the eighth pole Frac Daddy had the narrowest of advantages, with the rest of the field 3 1/2 lengths behind them, but as the wire neared, Uncaptured reclaimed the lead and held it to the wire to win by a neck. The final time for a mile and a sixteenth was 1:44.97.
Dewey Square rallied fast in the final furlong to finish third, 1 1/2 lengths behind Uncaptured. Tesseron was another three-quarters of a length back in fourth, while Fear the Kitten, Java's War, Positively, Track Rocker, Joha, Silver Tongued, Indiano Jones, Lew and Mike, and Will Take Charge completed the order of finish.
The winner is trained by Mark Casse and owned by John Oxley.
-Keelerman
Friday, November 23, 2012
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Entries: Uncaptured takes on deep field
Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) winner Uncaptured, winner of five of his six starts, is expected to be favored against a dozen rivals in Saturday's $150,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs, an earlier prep for the Kentucky Derby.
The Mark Casse-trainee was spectacular in winning the Iroquois, overcoming traffic issues to win going away by 5 1/2 lengths. A repeat of that effort would make him very tough to beat in the Kentucky Jockey Club, although it is worth noting that the Iroquois was run around only one turn, whereas Saturday's race will be contested around two. Uncaptured's lone defeat came when traversing two turns in the Grey Stakes (gr. III) at Woodbine, his only start under such conditions.
Should Uncaptured fail to fire his best shot, there are plenty of other horses that could step up and beat him. Positively, runner-up in the Iroquois, is one such colt. Trained by Patrick Byrne, the son of Distorted Humor is bred to excel around two turns, and has hit the board in all four of his starts here at Churchill. Expect to see him charging late from off-the-pace under jockey Calvin Borel.
Other contenders include Joha, winner of the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) two starts back; Dewey Square, unbeaten and untested in two starts for trainer Dale Romans; Tesseron, runner-up in the Grey Stakes while defeating Uncaptured; Frac Daddy, who broke his maiden at Churchill by 9 3/4 lengths; and Java's War, the troubled third-place finisher in the Breeders' Futurity.
Post Positions:
1 Java's War
2 Lew and Mike
3 Fear the Kitten
4 Uncaptured
5 Track Rocker
6 Frac Daddy
7 Will Take Charge
8 Tesseron
9 Dewey Square
10 Joha
11 Indiano Jones
12 Positively
13 Silver Tongued
-Keelerman
The Mark Casse-trainee was spectacular in winning the Iroquois, overcoming traffic issues to win going away by 5 1/2 lengths. A repeat of that effort would make him very tough to beat in the Kentucky Jockey Club, although it is worth noting that the Iroquois was run around only one turn, whereas Saturday's race will be contested around two. Uncaptured's lone defeat came when traversing two turns in the Grey Stakes (gr. III) at Woodbine, his only start under such conditions.
Should Uncaptured fail to fire his best shot, there are plenty of other horses that could step up and beat him. Positively, runner-up in the Iroquois, is one such colt. Trained by Patrick Byrne, the son of Distorted Humor is bred to excel around two turns, and has hit the board in all four of his starts here at Churchill. Expect to see him charging late from off-the-pace under jockey Calvin Borel.
Other contenders include Joha, winner of the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) two starts back; Dewey Square, unbeaten and untested in two starts for trainer Dale Romans; Tesseron, runner-up in the Grey Stakes while defeating Uncaptured; Frac Daddy, who broke his maiden at Churchill by 9 3/4 lengths; and Java's War, the troubled third-place finisher in the Breeders' Futurity.
Post Positions:
1 Java's War
2 Lew and Mike
3 Fear the Kitten
4 Uncaptured
5 Track Rocker
6 Frac Daddy
7 Will Take Charge
8 Tesseron
9 Dewey Square
10 Joha
11 Indiano Jones
12 Positively
13 Silver Tongued
-Keelerman
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