1. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
He'll be getting a very stiff test on Saturday when he takes on Shanghai Bobby, Frac Daddy, and others in the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). I don't really expect him to win, although a victory would be nice. I just want to see him put in a good run and stay on strongly to the finish. It's early, and we don't want him peaking too soon!
2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He continues to train sharply at Palm Meadows, most recently going a half-mile in :49.93 on January 20th. He's pointing toward a start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd, so he appears to be right on track in terms of training.
3. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Exactly how well the juvenile champion has progressed since November will become clear on Saturday, when he makes his sophomore debut in the Holy Bull. The fact that he has drawn the rail is interesting -- he'll either have to go straight to the lead, which he can do, or take back and settle behind horses, which could give him valuable experience for a race like the Derby.
4. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He seems to be a bit behind in his training, and the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) on February 2nd is no longer the goal. As a result, I've chosen to drop him a notch until further notice.
5. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
His workout pattern has me a little bit concerned, for after breezing a half-mile on January 4th, it took him until January 20th to return to the work tab again. He's obviously a very capable runner, but I doubt we'll be seeing him run for a while yet.
6. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's still on track for a run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) toward the end of February, but after going a half-mile in a very easy :50.90 on January 20th -- his first work of the year -- it's clear that he is going to have to step up his training quickly, as it's probable that he'll only have four more works before then.
7. Mountain Eagle (Birdstone - Gulch Legacy, by Gulch) Trained by Nick Zito
He's entered to run in a nine-furlong allowance optional claiming race on Saturday at Gulfstream, which seems like an absolutely perfect spot for him to make his first start against winners. A strong field is entered to face him, so assuming he wins, expect him to move up on this list.
8. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Violence, he isn't very far along in his training thus far, as his half-mile breeze in :51.61 on January 20th implies. But Overanalyze has a bit more time to get ready for his three-year-old debut, as he is not expected to run until the Gotham Stakes (gr. II) on March 2nd.
9. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Forget the fact that he set a slow pace in the LeComte. Forget the fact that the final time wasn't all that impressive. What impressed me about Oxbow was the way he absolutely exploded in the homestretch after leading from the start. While all of his pursuers were weaving left and right, apparently exhausted, Oxbow was running straight as an arrow, and seemed to have something left in the tank. He'll get another major class test in the Risen Star Stakes next month, where he'll face Normandy Invasion and others, but at the moment, he looks up to the challenge.
10. Power Broker (Pulpit - Shop Again, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
He still hasn't returned to the work tab yet, which worries me a little bit, but with his three-year-old debut not expected to come until March, he has time to get ready.
11. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
I've heard a lot of talk about Titletown Five being off the Derby trail with an ankle chip, and perhaps that is the case. But Lukas has said that Titletown Five should be back to the races in late March, and while that wouldn't leave much time to get ready for the Derby, I think this colt is talented enough to warrant inclusion on my list until it's definite that he won't make the race.
12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Returned to the races in a big way last Saturday, holding his own against the impressive sprinter Majestic Hussar to finish second in a seven-furlong allowance race. While he didn't win, I thought it was a very strong performance for his first race since August, and he should only improve with additional time and distance.
13. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek
Drew post position two in the Holy Bull, which should suit his running style perfectly. I would like to see him break cleanly, settle just behind Shanghai Bobby during the early stages, and finish up with a good run to get a piece of the purse. Victory is secondary at this stage; he'll retain his ranking here as long as he puts in a respectable effort.
14. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's training up a storm at Santa Anita, most recently going five-eighths in a blazing :58.60 at Santa Anita on January 23rd. He is scheduled to make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) on February 2nd.
15. He's Had Enough (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Breezed six furlongs in company this morning with grade II winner Handsome Mike, clocking the distance in an exceptional 1:10.80. It’s hard to know what to do with him based on his inconsistent record, but he’s scheduled to make his seasonal debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, where he’ll have every chance to fire his best shot while returning to dirt.
16. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
Failed to draw a good post position (#7) in the Holy Bull, and will have to be sharp to avoid getting hung wide on the first turn. I've been having a hard time analyzing his Gulfstream Park Derby form, that is, determining whether it was a legitimate performance or a track bias-aided effort, so I'm looking forward to seeing how he fares on Saturday.
17. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Numerous options have been discussed for this colt, including a run in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn, followed by the Sunland Derby (gr. III) at Sunland Park. Other possibilities include the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) or San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita.
18. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen
His inclusion here is based more on pedigree than thus-far racing record, but his 7 1/2-length maiden triumph at Fair Grounds on January 12th was a major step in the right direction, slow time and drifting stretch run aside.
19. Omega Star (Candy Ride - Pride of Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus) Trained by John Shirreffs
He's entered in the California Breeders Champion Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita, where he will stretch around two turns for the first time. Although the race is restricted to California-breds, there are some pretty good colts in the race, and they should provide Omega Star a good, stiff challenge.
20. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
There are at least a half-dozen horses that I could have included in this twentieth spot, but I decided to include Revolutionary because -- quite frankly -- his maiden victory at Aqueduct in December was about as impressive a maiden victory as you'll ever see. Coming off of three consecutive in-the-money efforts against other good maidens, Revolutionary finally seemed to put it all together in his fourth start, rattling off quarter-mile fractions of :23.85, :23.60, :24.28, and :24.79 to win by 8 1/2 lengths. For his effort, he received a massive Beyer speed figure of 102, the highest of 2012 for a two-year-old colt.
21. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
I decided to extend this week’s list to 21 in order to include this half-brother to 2012 Florida Derby (gr. I) winner Take Charge Indy. He showed a lot of grit in overcoming a difficult trip to win the Smarty Jones Stakes by a neck. Getting hung six-wide on the first turn would eliminate many horses from contention, but Will Take Charge overcame it in good fashion and simply wouldn't give in down the stretch. He's still a bit on the slow side from a speed-figure perspective, but I think there's plenty of improvement still to come.
*****
You may have noticed that Uncaptured is no longer on my list. This is most likely a temporary change -- I have removed him because he has been off the work tab with a foot bruise that set back his schedule. I’m sure he’ll be back in serious training before too long, but until he gets back on the work tab, I've decided to drop him from my list.
-Keelerman
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