A pair of official Kentucky Derby prep races are to be
run over the next few days, beginning with the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair
Grounds this afternoon and concluding with the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn
on Monday. Due to time constraints, we will be previewing only the LeComte
today, and saving the Smarty Jones for either Sunday or Monday. That said,
let's get started on the LeComte!
The one-mile and seventy-yard race has drawn a field of
ten, with Avie's Quality the morning line favorite at 5-2. The talented
Woodbine shipper is coming off of two consecutive victories, including a
decisive triumph in the Display Stakes. As this will be his debut on dirt,
there is the question of whether or not he'll handle the track, but assuming he
does -- his pedigree suggests he will -- he looks like the horse to beat,
especially with Rosie Napravnik in the saddle.
Two of the other favorites have major distance questions
to answer. Circle Unbroken is the only graded stakes winner in the
field, having won the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs last
June, but he's never run past six furlongs, and has not run since August. Given
the circumstances, it's difficult to envision him winning this race, although
he certainly warrants consideration further down the road in races like these.
Another of the favorites, Malibu High, is unbeaten
in two starts for trainer Cecil Borel, but has not run beyond six furlongs, and
doesn't have the strongest of pedigrees for stretching out.
Very intriguing to me is Golden Soul, a
lightly-raced colt coming off of a dominating 7 1/4-length maiden victory here
at Fair Grounds at the same distance of today's race. Jockey Brian Hernandez
Jr. is having an excellent meet, winning with 20% of his mounts, and Golden
Soul's very sharp :48 2/5 workout on January 13th signals his readiness for
this race. I think he's sitting on a winning effort.
On a similar note, Hawaakom won an identical
one-mile and seventy-yard maiden special weight on December 15th, rallying in
the sixth-path to win by 1 1/2 lengths. That alone would make him a contender
here, and when you consider that trainer Daniel Peitz is winning at a 40% rate
this meet, you have to think that Hawaakom is going to outrun his 20-1 odds
this afternoon.
Oxbow and Fear
the Kitten both ran well in graded stakes races last year, with Oxbow
rounding out the superfecta in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Fear the
Kitten rallying for fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). Both
colts are well-bred and have the potential to run well here, but of the pair, I
prefer Fear the Kitten, if not simply because Fear the Kitten's trainer Mike
Maker has won with 45% of his starters this meet and is clearly doing something
right!
Rounding out the field are Heitai, a four-time
stakes placed Louisiana-bred facing open company for the first time; and I've
Struck a Nerve, who tired badly in his two starts beyond seven furlongs.
Both colts are longshots to win the race, but both have flashed enough talent
to suggest that they could hit the board under the right conditions.
As for a selection . . . I really like the chances of Golden
Soul and Avie's Quality, but I'll go with Hawaakom simply
because I think 20-1 is way too high. Perhaps I'm missing something, but I'll
take a shot.
****
As I write this, the first race of the day at Gulfstream
Park has already been run, that being a seven-furlong allowance race for
three-year-olds. The 4-5 favorite was Palace Malice, a Todd
Pletcher-trained son of Curlin making his first start since breaking his maiden
impressively at Saratoga last summer. Over a sloppy track, Palace Malice
tracked the pace throughout, failed to match strides with front-running Majestic
Hussar at the top of the stretch, but found another gear late to be closing
ground at the finish. In the end, he was beaten just 2 1/4 lengths, while
finishing eight lengths clear of the rest of the field. I thought it was an
exceptional effort in his first start since August, and I expect to see a great
deal of improvement next time out.
But let's give some credit to Majestic Hussar as well. He
flashed a great deal of speed right from the start and was very tenacious in
the homestretch, refusing to allow Palace Malice to reach even terms. The son
of Majestic Warrior just keeps on getting better, and while it's difficult to
say how far he wants to run, he does have an intriguing pedigree that suggests
two turns are well within his reach.
On a side note, the results of this race did not reflect
particularly well on the form of the $100,000 Spectacular Bid Stakes, held here
at Gulfstream on New Year's Day. In that race, City of Weston rallied to
be beaten just three-quarters of a length by Merit Man in the slow time of
1:11.39 seconds. In today's allowance race, City of Weston was sent off at 18-1
and wound up third, 10 1/4 lengths behind Majestic Hussar. So, either the
Spectacular Bid Stakes was a rather weak race, or else today's allowance race
was of exceptionally high quality indeed!
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment