Pasco Stakes
Seven furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs
A field of ten had originally been entered, but the
scratches of morning line favorite Purple Egg and 6-1 shot Falling
Sky leave the race with eight runners.
Perhaps the most well-known horse in the race is Dynamic
Sky, runner-up in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland last fall.
Overall, his record is quite strong, but it's worth noting that all of his
success has come on Polytrack, and that he was sixth in his only start on dirt.
On the other hand, that effort came in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) when
he was attempting to rally over a speed-favoring track, so maybe his lack of
success on dirt is a moot point.
One could also argue that the seven-furlong distance of
the Pasco will be a bit short for Dynamic Sky, and that may be the case -- in
the end, I think he'll be at his best around two turns. But he did win the
Simcoe Stakes at Woodbine sprinting 6-1/2 furlongs, and given the deep nature
of Tampa's main track, Dynamic Sky's extra stamina could become a very useful
asset in the final furlong.
His primary oppoisition is expected to come from Hard
to Name, winner of two straight sprints at Parx Racing last autumn. His
most recent effort, a poor ninth in the one-mile Dania Beach Stakes on the
turf, can be forgiven. If he reverts to his Parx form, he has the speed to be a
contender here.
Also intriguing -- perhaps even more so than Hard to Name
-- is Mind Spell, who flashed good speed in winning a six-furlong
allowance optional claiming race at Tampa on December 22nd. Given his proven
affinity for the Tampa main track, one has to consider him a legitimate
contender in this seemingly wide-open race.
Lightning Stone, a 20-1 shot, is difficult to interpret All four of his
starts have been at one-mile or longer, and three of them -- including his two
victories -- have been on turf. His lone run on dirt resulted in a 9 3/4-length
defeat in a one-mile maiden special weight at Belmont, his career debut. Given
his record, it would be difficult to endorse him in a seven-furlong dirt
sprint, yet his pedigree seems to suggest that the main track might not be out of
the question, and -- cutting back in distance off of four straight route races
-- I can envision him flying late to secure a substantial part of the purse.
Sky Commander, who will run as an entry with Dynamic Sky, broke his maiden in good
fashion two starts back, but could manage no better than eighth in the Display
Stakes, his most recent effort. On the surface, that doesn't look like a very
good record, but please note that in his maiden score, he edged Display winner
Avie's Quality by a head. Taking this into consideration, it's probably wise to
forgive his dismal run in the Display and expect him to return to form this
afternoon.
Also warranting a look is Silver Day, who broke
his maiden going a mile at Calder by eight lengths before disappointing in his
next two starts, an allowance on dirt in which he was checked in the stretch
and a try on turf in the Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes.
Rounding out the field are Divine Ambition, a
speedy debut winner from Turfway Park that breezed a bullet on January 5th; and
O T B Bob, who is still a maiden after five starts.
Personally, I think that Dynamic Sky's class will
come through in the end, enabling him to rally in the final furlong to secure a
narrow victory. But I also really like the chances of longshots Lightning
Stone and Divine Ambition, the latter colt especially, and won't be
surprised if one or the other pulls off an upset.
California Derby
1 1/16th miles at Golden Gate Fields
Unlike the Pasco Stakes, this race has a heavy, heavy
favorite in Zeewat, and it is very, very difficult to envision him
losing.
For one thing, his victory in the one-mile Gold Rush Stakes last time out was exceptional. After contending for the lead between rivals for the first three-quarters of a mile, he accelerated sharply in the final quarter mile, running his seventh-eighth in a sharp :12.23 and his final eighth in a downright spectacular :11.56 seconds. As a result, no one was able to challenge him in the stretch, and Zeewat cruised to a 3 1/4-length triumph.
For another thing, two of the six rivals he'll be facing
today -- Condiment and My Best Bet -- were soundly beaten in the
Gold Rush, and are unlikely to improve enough to catch Zeewat.
So who can challenge Zeewat for victory? Well, the answer
may be no one, but if there is any horse that can make a race of it, it's
probably Tree of Life. His last two efforts, although bad on the
surface, were actually pretty decent runs -- he was beaten just 4 3/4 lengths
in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) and just three lengths in the Generous Stakes
(gr. III). Furthermore, he won his only start on dirt, that being the 6-1/2
furlong Barretts Juvenile Stakes at Fairplex Park. In the end, he might be
better sprinting, but he's flashed enough talent to suggest that victory is not
out of the question.
Wildcat Moon, a consistent colt coming off of a two consecutive sprint victories; Avare,
third in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita last month; and the filly Butterfly
Soul, spectacular winner of the Phil D. Shephard Stakes on the dirt at
Fairplex; round out the field.
My selection -- not surprisingly -- is Zeewat. The
possibility exists that Wildcat Moon could force the favorite into too
quick an early pace, thus setting the race up for a closer, but I think that
Zeewat is probably good enough to hold off the late runners even if he does
sprint hard early.
-Keelerman
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