That race is, of course, the $100,000 Sham Stakes (gr. III), which features Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) winner Goldencents and the promising Bob Baffert-trained pair Den's Legacy and Manando.
Also on today's schedule is the $200,000 Jerome Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct, where promising maiden winners Long River and Mudflats take on the proven stakes-caliber colts Vegas No Show and Vyjack. While it does not offer Kentucky Derby points, it is still a prominent stop on the road to Louisville, and I'm excited to see what happens.
Let's begin!
Sham Stakes (gr. III)
8 furlongs (two-turn mile)
The first of Santa Anita's four official Kentucky Derby preps drew a field of six. You may view the entries here.
The morning line favorite at 4-5 is -- not surprisingly -- Goldencents. The Doug O'Neill-trained son of Into Mischief has done nothing wrong during his brief career, sandwiching victories in a maiden special weight and the million-dollar Delta Jackpot around a runner-up effort to Shanghai Bobby in the prestigious Champagne Stakes (gr. I). On paper, the speedy front-runner looks virtually unbeatable.
However, I think he could be somewhat vulnerable. I felt that his effort in the Champagne was aided to some degree by a track bias, and in the Delta Jackpot, he was all-out to contain the late charge of favored Bern Identity, who was last with five-sixteenths of a mile to go following a very difficult trip.
Of course, regardless of these opinions, Goldencents should be tough to beat, and I will certainly not be surprised if he wins impressively. But I think that Manando could give him a run for the money. The son of Bluegrass Cat began his career with a trio of third-place finishes, including one on November 25th in which he was beaten by the good colts Distinctiv Passion and Belvin, with Appealing Tale further back in fourth. Last time out, he finally broke through with a victory, striding impressively to a gate-to-wire, 5 1/4-length triumph.
Making this race even more interesting is the fact that while Goldencents and Manando have both scored impressive front-running victories, Goldencents does appear to have considerably more early speed. Manando accomplished his maiden victory by running the opening half mile in :48.90 and the second half-mile in :48.77, followed by a final sixteenth in :06.38 seconds. Goldencents, on the other hand, won the Delta Jackpot by blazing the opening half-mile in :46.22, the second half in :51.81, and the final sixteenth in 1:44.89.
Thus, it seems that Goldencents has a strong tactical advantage in this spot, while Manando has a much stronger finishing kick. Perhaps I'm crazy, but I'm going to side with Manando for the victory, in hopes that his strong stretch kick will enable him to reel in Goldencents late in the race, much like Out of Bounds did in this race last year against the speedy Secret Circle.
The remaining Sham entrants have major questions to answer. Den's Legacy rallied strongly to be third in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), but finished an unimpressive fifth in his lone start on dirt. The same goes for Dry Summer, a stakes winner on turf but eighth in his only effort on dirt. Greely Awesome broke his maiden by 9 1/4 lengths last time out, but that was in a maiden claiming race -- he has finished no better than fourth in maiden special weight company, and trainer Doug O'Neill told DRF.com that the only reason Greely Awesome has been entered is because there were no other suitable races available. Dirty Swagg has proven himself talented enough to be beaten a length in the Real Quiet Stakes, but was most recently seventh in the CashCall Futurity and appears to be in a bit deep here.
Jerome Stakes (gr. II)
1 mile and 70 yards
(You may view the entries here.)
While the Sham Stakes may be the more important prep race, I am actually more excited about watching the Jerome, for one of my top-ranked Derby contenders is entered. The colt in question is Long River, a beautifully-bred son of A.P. Indy out of 2006 Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. I) winner Round Pond. Owned and bred by Darley, Long River began his career with a pair of decent efforts at Belmont Park, including a runner-up finish to the highly-regarded Delhomme in what could be considered a key race. Most recently, Long River broke through with a three-quarter length triumph over the promising colt Mr. Palmer in a one-mile, 70-yard maiden special weight here at Aqueduct. I feel that there is a lot of improvement still to come from Long River, and while he might not win today, I'm very excited to see how he progresses further down the road.
Long River aside, the morning line favorite at 2-1 is the unbeaten Vyjack, winner of the seven-furlong Traskwood Stakes at Aqueduct last month. While he has been very impressive in both of his victories, he has never run farther than seven furlongs, and has never run around two turns before. These facts, coupled with his sprinter-oriented pedigree, make me suspect that the distance of the Jerome may prove to be just a bit too far for Vyjack.
Mudflats, a son of Tapit, broke his maiden last time out by 3 1/4 lengths for trainer Eddie Keneally, but has since been transferred to the care of Doug O'Neill. There's no denying that Mudflats has talent, but it is worth noting that he was soundly beaten by Long River two starts back, and this will be his first start around two turns.
To me, Vegas No Show is an intriguing contender. Winner of the Dover Stakes three starts back at the same distance as the Jerome, he subsequently finished second to CashCall Futurity (gr. I) winner Violence in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) before finishing a dismal ninth in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) without any apparent excuse. He has trained well since then, and a return to his previous form could earn him the victory today.
Notacatbutallama, a two-time stakes winner trained by Todd Pletcher, makes his second start on dirt following a runner-up effort in the Damon Runyon Stakes over a sloppy track. With Ramon Dominguez accepting the mount, I doubt he'll go off at his 12-1 morning line odds.
Rounding out the field are Amerigo Vespucci, twice runner-up to the good colt Whiskey Romeo in stakes races at Laurel; Siete de Oros, third in the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes last time out; and James Jingle, who has finished behind Notacatbutallama in three consecutive stakes events, including the Damon Runyon.
It's not easy making a selection in a wide-open race like this one, but I'll go ahead and side with Long River for the victory, with respect to Vegas No Show and Notacatbutallama.
Other Races of Note
While Gulfstream Park is not offering any stakes action for three-year-olds this weekend, there are nevertheless a trio of interesting maiden and allowance events on the Saturday card that merit watching.
First and foremost to me is the ninth race of the day, a one-mile maiden special weight on the main track. The colt I have my eye on is Pontiff, an unraced half-brother to the recently deceased stallion Pulpit. He is owned by Donegal Racing . . . he is trained by Dale Romans . . . he will be ridden by Joel Rosario . . . sounds like a good combination to me!
There is another one-mile maiden special weight on the card as well -- apparently, there were enough entries to split the race into two divisions. In this race, I am excited to watch the debut of Todd Pletcher's Doherty, a son of Giant's Causeway, as well as The Candidate, a second-time starter from the barn of Nick Zito.
The third race is a one-mile allowance race on the turf, in which the morning line favorite -- following three scratches -- is the stakes-placed colt Thunder Calls, who was most recently seventh in the Dania Beach Stakes.
Out at Santa Anita Park, a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight is to be held one race prior to the Sham Stakes. The event has drawn a field of nine, including three colts trained by Bob Baffert -- Chasintheaces, Secretsatmidnight, and Spirited Touch. You can make a case for any of them, as well as Steve Asmussen's promising colt Cabello Del Cielo and John Sadler's Bench Press.
-Keelerman
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