Triple Crown Countdown 1-4-13

As regular readers of this blog have surely come to know, I pay close attention to how racetracks play on major race days, keeping an eye out for any signs of a track bias.

On New Year's Day at Gulfstream Park, there was undeniable evidence of a serious track bias.

Consider this: seven of the day's ten races were held on the main track. Every last one was won by a horse racing on or near the lead throughout. In several instances, the early leaders paraded around the racetrack without changing position, while the closers never got involved.

The Gulfstream Park Derby was a prime example. Undrafted, Itsmyluckyday, and Sr. Quisqueyano were the three leaders following a half-mile in :44.93, a blazing fraction for the distance. Surely, one or two of them should have tired from their exertions.

Instead, the three colts proceeded to rattle off three-quarters of a mile in 1:09.11, putting them 8 1/2 lengths clear of their pursuers. And they didn't stop there. At the finish, the winner was Itsmyluckyday by 6 3/4 lengths. Sr. Quisueyano finished second by 5 1/2 lengths over Undrafted, who was -- in turn -- eight lengths clear of Joshua's Comprise, who closed mildly from last to complete the superfecta.

Given the way the race unfolded, it is almost impossible to deny that a track bias existed. But what does that mean further down the road?

I'm afraid I don't know. Quite frankly, even if there had been no bias, I doubt that Joshua's Compromise was going to beat Itsmyluckyday, or even Sr. Quisqueyano and Undrafted. Furthermore, three-year-olds start improving rapidly this time of year, so although Undrafted's third-place finish might have been fourth if not for the bias, it's not impossible that three months from now Undrafted could be among the best horses in the country, capable of beating any horse, anywhere, regardless of bias. You get the idea.

However, there are a couple of colts that I thought ran rather well against the bias and bear watching further down the road. They are City of Weston and Cerro.

The first-mentioned colt finished second in the six-furlong Spectacular Bid Stakes at odds of 50-1, beaten just three-quarters of a length, despite attempting to close from fifth place in a six-horse field. Some will argue that his performance was enhanced by a quick pace that exhausted three of the four pace-setters -- everyone except victorious Merit Man -- and they may be right. However, given the track bias, I thought City of Weston's effort was very good indeed.

As for Cerro, he placed third in a 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race, in which Bradester and Gunderman ran 1-2 after spending much of the race on the lead together. Cerro, on the other hand, was hung wide on both turns while racing in sixth, attempted to rally on the far turn, and finally flattened out a bit in the homestretch. Although beaten 6 1/2 lengths, I felt it was a very sharp performance under the circumstances, and I expect Cerro to run better next time out.

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Track bias aside, I would like to commend Gulfstream Park on the creation of a truly enjoyable New Year's Day card. Having an entire card of races just for three-year-olds, at a time of year when racing fans are starting to look for up-and-coming young colts, was a wonderful idea. Not only were we treated to thrilling editions of the Gulfstream Park Derby and Spectacular Bid Stakes, we also got to see Kauai Katie win the Old Hat Stakes (gr. III) in spectacular fashion, and watch colts like Bradester and Verrazano stamp themselves as exciting prospects to keep an eye on in the future.

Thank you, Gulfstream Park!

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This Saturday is going to be a big one along the Triple Crown Trail, with a pair of graded prep races being held at Santa Anita and Aqueduct. I'll be discussing those races and others tomorrow, but for the moment, let's take a look at an interesting allowance optional claiming race being held this afternoon at Gulfstream Park.

The 6-1/2 furlong main-track event originally drew a field of eight, but two scratches have reduced it to six. The morning line favorite at 3-1 is Honorable Dillon, which -- coincidentally -- is a colt that I've had my eye on for a long time. Summing up his maiden victory at Saratoga last summer, I wrote: "Honorable Dillon, coming off of a third-place finish here at Saratoga on July 28th, stepped up his game sharply in this race for trainer Eddie Keneally. With jockey Jose Lezcano aboard, Honorable Dillon tracked a pace of :22.26 and :45.39 set by Hot West before wearing that one down in the stretch and drawing away to win by 1 3/4 lengths. The final time was a sharp 1:10.31 seconds. Delhomme, a first-time starter for trainer Todd Pletcher and owner WinStar Farm, rallied well after a poor start to secure second in an eye-catching performance that left me thinking he could be one to watch in the future." As we all know, Delhomme went on to break his own maiden in sharp fashion before running a close third in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) in November.

Thus, I have been eagerly awaiting Honorable Dillon's return ever since then, and am looking forward to seeing how he performs this afternoon.

Should Honorable Dillon fail to fire his best shot off the layoff, the speedy and consistent Singanothersong should have every chance at victory, as should Red Hot Randy, winner via disqualification of a recent maiden special weight at the same distance as today's event.

-Keelerman