Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles on the main track
Aside from all the talented horses in the race,
handicapping the Holy Bull is made difficult by two important factors: A; the
race starts right on the first turn, which results in horses drawn outside
getting hung very wide at the start of the race, and B; the race will conclude
at the sixteenth pole, leaving little time for the late runners to get their
runs uncorked.
Further confusing things is the speed-favoring nature of
Gulfstream's main track. Oftentimes, the early leaders will parade around the
racetrack without changing order, while the closers struggle to get involved.
Or at least, that's what typically happens. Yesterday,
however, horses were rallying on the outside all day long, while the
front-runners tired without excuse in the final furlongs. Whether that will be the
case again today is debatable, but it will be worth watching the early races on
the card to see how the track is playing.
If all these factors hold true in the Holy Bull, the
winner should be an off-the-pace runner -- not the deep closing kind, but one
that sits a few lengths off the lead -- that is drawn inside. The question is,
does such a horse exist?
Actually, there are two that I feel fit the bill. They
are Bern Identity and Frac Daddy. The latter colt is very lightly
raced -- he made just three starts last year -- but showed a great deal of grit
in finishing second to Uncaptured in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)
at the same 1 1/16th miles distance of today's race. Now, he's only had four
workouts since his return to training late last year, so it's possible that
he's not dead-fit for this race, but his versatility and tactical speed should
enable him to work out a great trip from post position two.
Bern Identity compiled an exceptional record as a two-year-old, winning the Sanford Stakes
(gr. II) and Jean Lafitte Stakes in addition to placing in the Hopeful Stakes
(gr. I) and Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III). He possesses enough tactical
speed to be involved early, as well as the tractability to settle a few lengths
off the pace and finish up with a strong run. This combination, along with the
fact that he has drawn post position four, should make him a serious contender
this afternoon. But, it's worth noting that he was beaten 4 1/2 lengths by
Shanghai Bobby in their only meeting, and it's hard to say if he's improved
enough to take down the champ.
Speaking of Shanghai Bobby, he is obviously going
to be a huge favorite this afternoon, and deservedly so. It seems as though
there is nothing he can't do -- he's unbeaten in five starts at 4-1/2 furlongs,
5-1/2 furlongs, 7 furlongs, 1 mile, and 1 1/16th miles. He ran a half-mile in
:45 2/5 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and still held off the closers to win. He
has turned in a number of strong workouts in preparation for this race. He has
drawn the rail, which eliminates any chances of him being hung wide on the
first turn. The only real concern is that he might break slowly and find
himself stuck in traffic, but given his speed, I don't think it will be an
issue.
Now, the horse whose form is trickiest to interpret is Itsmyluckyday.
There is no denying that he's a good colt -- his victory in the Gulfstream Park
Derby last time out was exceptional, and his victory in the Foolish Pleasure
Stakes at Calder last year was also quite strong. But there are a couple of
things that worry me. One is his post position drawn (#7), which could result
in Itsmyluckyday getting caught wide around the first turn. If he were a
closer, it wouldn't bother me so much, but being a rather speedy colt, I am
concerned that Itsmyluckyday may have to run very hard early to maintain his
position around the first turn, which could leave him with little left in the
tank for the homestretch.
Another concern is that his effort in the Gulfstream Park
Derby might have been too good. It was much better than any performance
he had turned in previously, which makes me wonder if he can repeat it today.
If he can, he might be the horse to beat. But this is a pretty big step up in
class, and running that huge again may be difficult.
Also returning from the Gulfstream Park Derby are Sr.
Quisqueyano and Joshua's Comprise, the second- and fourth-place
finishers. Both were soundly beaten that day, finishing 6 3/4 and 20 1/4
lengths behind Itsmyluckyday, respectively, and it's difficult to envision them
improving enough to challenge for the victory.
Moving onward, we come to Dewey Square, who has
been at the top of my Derby list ever since his third-place finish in the
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). What I liked about his performance that
day was the way he finished after getting hung wide on both turns. Furthermore,
he is bred to get better with age; he possesses enough tactical speed to stay
in touch with the leaders; he is trained by the newly-crowned Eclipse champion
trainer Dale Romans; and he turned in a spectacular five-furlong bullet work
six days ago. Dewey Square seems to be sitting on a top-notch performance, but
his post position (#6) and the short homestretch could make things tricky.
Nevertheless, I'm not really looking for a win from Dewey Square this afternoon
-- so long as he runs a nice race and finishes up well, he will retain his
position atop my Derby list.
Tulira Castle and Fredericksburg, the 1-2 finishers in an allowance optional
claiming race at Gulfstream in December, have both flashed talent during their
brief careers and warrant some respect, but both have drawn outside post
positions, making their already difficult task of winning the race even more
tricky. Nevertheless, they both look like nice enough colts, and decent
efforts today could propel them to better things further down the road.
Rounding out the field is Clearly Now, a Woodbine
shipper that was most recently third in the Display Stakes. The switch to dirt
could help his chances, and post position three should enable him to use his
early speed to its highest potential, so don't be surprised if he's right in
contention turning for home.
I really have no idea who to pick, as there are at least
four or five horses I think can win. Really, this is one of those races that's
more fun to watch than to handicap. But for the record, I like Shanghai
Bobby,
Frac Daddy, and Dewey
Square best, in just about any order.
Other Races of Note
While there are too many interesting races on the day's
agenda to discuss them all, here are a few of the highlights I'll be looking
forward to this afternoon:
Gulfstream Race 3 - Team Valor's Cerro caught my
eye after finishing a good third to Bradester and Gunderman in a recent
allowance race, and looks ready to roll in this similar spot.
Gulfstream Race 5 - Mountain Eagle looked great
breaking his maiden by 4 1/2 lengths at Gulfstream last month, and a repeat of
that effort should win this race. Orb, who broke his maiden nicely at Aqueduct in November, also looks like a serious contender.
Gulfstream Race 7 - Bold Dance broke his maiden
sharply on the turf last time out and should be even better stretching out
another sixteenth of a mile.
Santa Anita Race 7 - Sharp maiden winner Omega Star
will try to translate his brilliant turn-of-foot around two turns for the first
time in the California Breeders Champion Stakes. John Shirreffs-trainee looks
like a very good one.
Aqueduct Race 3 - Transparent ran well in defeat
to Todd Pletcher's Revolutionary in a recent maiden special weight, and looks
ready to graduate today.
-Keelerman
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